Expansion AFL overtaking NRL in QLD

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Righteo

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I moved the family back to WA end of November and I'm again loving the amount of exposure the AFL has here. They recently had a full page dedicated to Nat Fyfe's new haircut. Full page 3.

The-West-Front-Page.png


Srsly their Fyfe lovefest is beyond a joke :mad::mad::mad: They thought Fyfe winning some rando award was front page-worthy during Willie's time of need LOL :tearsofjoy:








In all seriousness how about that Scomo:China story? Awkward.
 

RUNVS

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I have also been in Sydney for about 15 years and agree wholeheartedly with Off Tap It is a slow process. About 2 years ago the North Narrabeen Sports High School took down the Rugby goal posts and installed AFL posts, I nearly ran off the road when I saw first saw them.
Another interesting take on this is that there is now enormous pressure up here on the Big private schools to introduce AFL into their curriculum. This is as a result of the pressure from Parents and the kids themselves. Whilst this may have a huge effect on Rugby, it will have a knock effect for league eventually. As has been said, slow steps.
If Kings school in Sydney ends their Rugby programme it is going to be difficult for me to suppress the desire to run the kids over when they are crossing the road.
 

BringBackTorps

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I live in Kingaroy in Rural QLD before this year turned into a clusterfu**. The local Rugby League comp was cancelled due to lack of numbers, yet our local AFL team had record numbers.
I realise that GR AF comp. nos. are tiny, cf contact RL comp. nos. in Qld. rural areas generally; ditto GR AF nos., cf the various Burnett area RL comp. nos.
Why do you claim "lack of numbers" being the reason the various Burnet area RL comps. were cancelled (apart, obviously, due to covid) for 2020- but the much smaller (but, obviously, not more "vulnerable") nearby rural AF comps. were able to re-start in 2020? And what is causing the decline,in the Burnett areas, in male contact RL nos. ?

Can you provide approx. playing nos. for Club contact RL (ie not tag or touch) for the various greater Burnett area jnr & snr. comps.? And, for the same areas, school comp. contact nos. for RL?
Ditto for the AF club & school comp. nos. that cover the same areas?



2. southburnett.com.au 10.6.20

South Burnett President D. Tierney said the decision to cancel the SBRL comps. (jnr & snr) was due to problems with
"...100 person [covid] limits, insurance costs, & player nos....They [SBRL clubs] acknowledged they would struggle to find volunteers to help with the extra onerous [covid requirement safety] conditions".

southburnett.com wrote
. "Mr Tierney said it was also taken into account [for cancelling the 2020 season] that some clubs were struggling to field teams in certain grades prior to covid-19...".

. The Central Burnett RL comp. was also totally cancelled for 2020, as was the Toowoomba snr. RL comp.


Various State & NRL officials have stated that, for some rural, regional, & metro areas, a lack of volunteers is causing significant problems, & limits recruitment, for some GR RL clubs.



3. burnetttoday.com.au L. Blackmore 22.10.20

Re the South Burnett RL comp. in 2021, Blackmore wrote

"Next year, the local competition will have divisions up to U14, plus an A Grade[snr contact RL], & the U15, U16, & U18's will move to the Toowoomba competition- playing in a combined team, the South Burnett Eagles (due to falling nos. in contact RL. All words in brackets, & emphases, mine)".


The Burnett rural areas are c. 120km+ west of the Sunshine Coast. Playing in the Toowoomba comp. (west of Brisbane) will cause some of these players a round trip of up to 200km +. This unfortunate necessity appears to be caused by declining nos. from U15 upwards.
 
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Roobs321

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However, the NRL now has more 45% of its current players coming from Polynesian backgrounds and, in particular, more than 70% of the NZ Warriors' list is of a Polynesian background. This is a serious over representation when you consider just 1.48% of the Australian population is of a Polynesian background and 25% of the New Zealand population comes from a Polynesian background. I don't think it's unfair to suggest the lesser running requirements in the two rugby codes suits the typical Polynesian body type more than Aussie rules and we have two perfect examples of this in Karmichael Hunt/Israel Folau who both reached the pinnacle in league and union but were largely unsuccessful in the AFL and would often cramp during games.

I'm not sure targeting the Polynesian community in Australia is really the best growth strategy going forward anyway. 1.48% of the population is nothing in the grand scheme of things. Outside of targeting Queenslanders and New South Welshmen in general, I would have thought the AFL would be looking to target the Asian community which makes up more than 12% of the Australian population. Lin Jong (Taiwanese) has essentially been the only Asian representative in the AFL for a while now but we're starting to see a small increase with Alex Davies (Japanese) and Connor Downie (Chinese) being drafted this year as well as Austin Harris (Vietnamese) on the draft radar next year.
There are areas of Queensland (rugby territory) that have quite high polynesian populations (as visibly prevalent as Asians in the city). When you consider it from a heartland perspective, not to mention the sport's prominence in other relevant countries, then it isn't very surprising. Has a bit of a male bonding thing to it for many polynesians as well.
 

Johnny Bananas

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We need more islander types in the league to appeal to that base.
I think that's the last thing the game needs. The number of massive Islander kids dominating junior rugby league might be turning kids and parents off it, because smaller kids just can't compete. And the bigger the bodies become in rugby league, the fewer kids will want to sign up.
 

DaTBird187

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I've just had a read of this thread for the first time, interesting stuff.

From the outside looking in, is the momentum of Australian Rules participation in NSW and QLD simply not reflected in the media focus of the papers and TV? Anecdotally I've heard nothing but positive things about the number of kids playing the sport in both these states, and the facilities seem to be springing up everywhere.
 

HavUEvaSeenTheRain

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I've just had a read of this thread for the first time, interesting stuff.

From the outside looking in, is the momentum of Australian Rules participation in NSW and QLD simply not reflected in the media focus of the papers and TV? Anecdotally I've heard nothing but positive things about the number of kids playing the sport in both these states, and the facilities seem to be springing up everywhere.
Think it’s just that it’s still a minor sport besides the growth so it won’t gain much mainstream media attention
 

DaTBird187

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Think it’s just that it’s still a minor sport besides the growth so it won’t gain much mainstream media attention
That's what I was getting at. The growth in participation is not reflective in any growth in media exposure.

It's like a sleeping giant until all the old Rugby League media hacks cark it.
 

Hoops

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My wife's brothers family moved up to near the Qld border in NSW and when I caught up with him over Christmas I asked how his sons cricket was going as he was pretty good player. He told me he doesn't play that anymore and has moved on to footy as all his friends play it. I thought that was a bit odd as he was a bit soft for Aussie Rules let alone Rugby. Until it I realised it was Aussie Rules he was talking about which seems even more odd.

Only one anecdote, I know. Thought I would share it none the less
 

GC2015

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My wife's brothers family moved up to near the Qld border in NSW and when I caught up with him over Christmas I asked how his sons cricket was going as he was pretty good player. He told me he doesn't play that anymore and has moved on to footy as all his friends play it. I thought that was a bit odd as he was a bit soft for Aussie Rules let alone Rugby. Until it I realised it was Aussie Rules he was talking about which seems even more odd.

Only one anecdote, I know. Thought I would share it none the less
Determining whether it's odd is dependent on how close they are to the border. If they live in Tweed Heads and the son plays over the border for Coolangatta then that's really not weird at all considering the two areas are essentially neighbouring suburbs and Aussie rules has a good participation rate on the Gold Coast. Think of Albury and how similar it is to neighbouring Wodonga but if you go 90 minutes further north to a town like Wagga Wagga then you would find the locals are more into rugby league than Aussie rules.

If they live considerably further south of Tweed Heads then it's fair to say that is odd. Perhaps with the exception of Byron Bay which is packed with plenty of people who hail from an area south of the Murray, just about all those North-Eastern NSW towns preference rugby league over Aussie rules.
 

BringBackTorps

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Think of Albury and how similar it is to neighbouring Wodonga [Yes] but if you go 90 minutes further north to a town like Wagga Wagga then you would find the locals are more into rugby league [No] than Aussie rules.
Wagga, & the surrounding district, are in the sthn. NSW Riverina, which is AF heartland.
In Wagga town & the general Wagga district, AF Club regd. comp. nos. FAR surpass contact RL comp. nos. in the same area -but NRL there still has many fans.

(Scroll to my post# 1090, then refer to point 4 for the Wagga & general district very high AF team nos.
Note in this post also that, in the ACT & directly surrounding NSW areas of Queanbeyan, Goulburn, Yass etc., GR AF team nos. FAR surpass contact RL Club team nos.- & a RL team, of course, has smaller nos. in a team).

The Wagga & surrounding district District (population 80,000+) AF U15 & U17.5 club team nos. severely embarass (per capita) the Rugby League Brisbane Juniors U15, U16, & U17 team nos.(excluding RL club tag players there), population c. 2.1m. Do you agree?



2. In my above post#300 to you, I:-

. provided you- with links- official regd. nos. for GR jnr club AF in the Gold Coast-Brisbane-Sunshine Coast corridor (c. 12700 Club U8-U17 comp. players ie not inc. Club Auskick); & for RL club nos. in the Rugby League Brisbane jnr comp.- c. 5000 in the RLBJ U6-U12. (In an "heartland" city of 2.1m, c.5000 is extraordinarly low, & almost shocking)

. requested you provide me with your official regd. nos. (if you dispute the QRL's 24.7.20 claim that, for U6-U12, in the Rugby League Brisbane comp., covering Greater Brisbane, it had only c. 5000 players, in 498 teams- some of which were RL Club tag teams. This 5000 does not include the Ipswich District JRL).

. provided you with much other information & links on the growth of the AFL & GR AF in Qld., NSW, & ACT; & decline of GR RL in Qld., NSW, & ACT

. challenged many of your comments to me.

You have not replied to the questions & information I provided- can I assume you accept the validity of my official regd. nos. & other comments?





3. Steve Mascord has been a RL journalist since c.1990, including writing at times in the Daily Telegraph & SMH.
He now has his own RL website, Two Tribes.

Mascord, on 13.12.20, wrote

"My understanding is that the NRL's recent reluctance to expand has been based in part on the reports of talent scouts who said there is not enough players to support 17 or 18 teams".


The NRL talent scouts are reinforcing the views of many ex NRL players, MSM experts, & Nine's executive T. Malone etc. who have expressed similar views that the NRL should not expand to 17 clubs (previously linked by me in this thread)- they say the skill depth in RL is currently too poor, & the appeal of the NRL/ratings/crowds would drop in a 17 club comp.



Brisbane Courier Mail 10.1.21 wrote

"The NRL's plans to launch a 2nd Brisbane team in 2023 are set to be put on ice as time runs out for Qld. to become home to the League's 17th Club...The NRL's 16 current clubs will fight against having their $13m handout reduced to funding a new team".

The NRL is still investigating (with no expiry date for a decision) whether there is a good business case to expand to 17 clubs, with Brisbane 2.


(Scroll to Gorilla's 20.1.21 post in reddit, for the full -unblocked- Courier Mail article)

Brisbane 2 is a no-brainer, in a city of c. 2.4m. It will greatly help the NRL in having a game every week at Suncorp- especially higher ratings & crowds.
Nearly all MSM RL experts want another NRL club in Brisbane- but many want the NRL to stay at 16 clubs, thus want a Sydney Club to merge or relocate to achieve Brisbane2).


The NRL talent scouts' advice appears to be official confirmation that the long term significant decline in male contact RL nos. in NSW, ACT. & Qld. is having a very serious impact on the NRL- if it is unable to expand to 17 clubs, this is a strategic weakness for the NRL comp. in particular, & GR contact RL in general.



SMH M. Chammas 23.3.20

Chammas wrote that expansion, with a 17th NRL team in 2023, is very unlikely.

"But the reality of the situation has many inside NRL headquarters convinced expansion in 2023 is dead".

 
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Obzerva

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That's what I was getting at. The growth in participation is not reflective in any growth in media exposure.

It's like a sleeping giant until all the old Rugby League media hacks cark it.
I think it's your last point exactly.

the entrenched writers/editors will be league through and through.

flipping it on its head, it'd be like having the Herald Sun devote more column space to rugby league, just couldn't see it happening under current circumstances.
Even the Storm coverage is probably still a legacy of when News Corp owned them.
 

TWLS

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I think it's your last point exactly.

the entrenched writers/editors will be league through and through.

flipping it on its head, it'd be like having the Herald Sun devote more column space to rugby league, just couldn't see it happening under current circumstances.
Even the Storm coverage is probably still a legacy of when News Corp owned them.
Totally agree with these comments about the entrenched NRL writers/editors. They will support the game to the end if that is what the NRL`s future is relative to their glory days.
 

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Johnny Bananas

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That's what I was getting at. The growth in participation is not reflective in any growth in media exposure.

It's like a sleeping giant until all the old Rugby League media hacks cark it.
To add to what Obzerva said, News Limited still owns the Broncos. They have an inbuilt bias against anything that devalues their asset, i.e. AFL in general and the Lions in particular. Hopefully once Rupert finally kicks the bucket, his sons will kill off assets like the metro newspapers that don't make money.
 

BringBackTorps

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Male GR senior contact RL in Greater Brisbane in 2020 is in major trouble.

The GR team nos. in 2020 (excluding Rugby League Ipswich comp.) are:-

. Total 59 teams for all of A Grade, A Grade Reserves, Division 1, Division 2 South, Division 3 South, Division 2 North, & Division 3 North.

. Nil GR teams Under 20

. Nil GR teams Under 19

. Total 14 GR teams Under 18.

Greater Brisbane is an heartland NRL city of c. 2.1m (not including the Ipswich district -population 323,069 in 2016 Census).
These above team nos. of male GR snr contact teams are extraordinarily low, & are almost shocking.

I have provided full details of the teams, from both the Rugby League Brisbane GR snr comp. & the Rugby League Ipswich comp., in the link below.
(Scroll to my post#459).


The QRL announced on 24.7.20 that the Rugby League Brisbane comp. in 2020 had c. 5000 Club male & female players, U6- U12, in 498 teams (which includes c. 10% of this 5000 playing Club tag only). This does not include the Rugby League Ipswich comp.
This 5000 no. is also extraordinarily low, & almost shocking (see post #180 above).


Elite & GR RU & RL has had c. 100 year head start on elite AF (1987) in SEQ.
The MSM NRL coverage is huge in SEQ, cf the small AFL coverage there- yet GR male contact RL is unable to take advantage of this huge historical & MSM ascendancy, & is in a significant long term decline in SEQ ( & through all Qld.) RL's weaknessess, vulnerability, & bleak prospects are fully exposed.

Both the changing & reversing historical & MSM factors, together with the current GR stats, reinforce the view that, in the Gold Coast- Brisbane- Sunshine Coast corridor, GR jnr & snr AF club, & school, comp. regd. nos. have overtaken GR jnr & snr contact RL club, & school, comp. regd. nos. in this corridor- or will very soon overtake; & the AFL may also eventually challenge the NRL for popularity in this corridor (& Cairns district) in c. 20 years.

Season 2020 should, therefore, be considered a very historic year in the history of the progress of AF in SEQ.
 
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BringBackTorps

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P. V'landys said 31.1.21 that "participation" is one of the "...big issues on the Commission's timetable at the moment".
Also, re the likelihood of a second NRL Club being based in Brisbane

"One of the reasons we want the team in Brisbane is because of participation".

This suggests the NRL is very concerned about the collapse of GR male contact RL player nos. in the Gold Coast-Brisbane- Sunshine Coast corridor.

As per post#315 above, there is an extraordinarily low, & almost shocking, no. of GR snr male contact RL teams in the Greater Brisbane & Ipswich areas.
In the Gold Coast-Brisbane-Sunshine Coast corridor in 2020, GR AF jnr & snr Club, & school, comp. player nos. have overtaken GR RL jnr & snr Club, & school, comp. player nos.- or will very soon overtake.

The NRL is also planning to train primary school teachers (who are overwhelmingly female now) to promote & coach RL in Qld., NSW, & ACT primary schools.
AF has made great progress in Qld., NSW, & ACT primary & secondary schools (govt. & private) since 2012.

(Scroll to my point 2)
 
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BringBackTorps

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NRL expert Phil Gould (now working part time for the NRL) has stated numerous times he is concerned about declining NRL skill levels, lack of depth in elite pathways in the NRL, & does not want the NRL to expand to 17 teams. He has stated that the decline in skill levels that would ensue would detract from the appeal of the NRL- thus cause lower ratings/crowds/sponsorship$ & Rights' $.

Gould does want Brisbane 2, but prefers Sydney teams relocate or merge, so the comp. stays at 16 teams.

Many other senior RL officials have supported Gould's anti 17 teams position- including current QRL Chairman B. Hatcher, former ARLC Chairman J. Grant, & NRL official B. Canavan.

The long term significant decline in GR male contact RL nos. (including the collapse in Sydney, & the GC-Brisbane-Sunshine Coast corridor) are linked to fears the talent pool is too shallow for the NRL to expand to 17 teams- both problems represent major & worrying strategic weaknessess for the NRL.


(See my post#3437 for links)

(See my post#380 for links).
 
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Freomaniac

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Whats with the AFL HQ trying to Hitler the fcking country and take over the entire continent? Just appreciate and look after the fans that actually want to watch AFL and stop with the obsession of trying to infiltrate NSW and QLD.
The AFL are more than happy to strengthen their hold in Queensland while the NRL teams in Queensland are struggling
 

BringBackTorps

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Various RL & RU experts discuss the many severe problems facing GR & pro RL & RU in Australia.

Some of these problems may be insurmountable. In the medium to long term, GR AF & the AFL will very likely benefit from these problems (including increasing its market share in Qld., NSW, & ACT) that RL & RU are experiencing.

(Scroll to my post#3473)
 

BringBackTorps

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1. GR jnr & snr male contact RL has collapsed in all Greater Sydney in 2020 (excluding Penrith District RL- although it is, also, in decline there).

Male contact RL is in a significant long term decline in Greater Sydney, & has a minimal GR presence in Sydney's NS, ES, & inner WS.

Details of the 11 Sydney District RL comps., & their declining nos., are in this link below.

(Scroll to my post#467)

The Greater Sydney decline shows that the problems besetting GR contact RL are very deep, & widespread throughout Aust. (rural Qld. is the least affected).

Also, in point 2 of the above link, P. V'landys implies the NRL is fearful of the strong growth of AF in Qld., & that RL participation nos. in Qld. are under threat from the AFL .




2. Current NSW Police Commissioner M. Fuller was asked by P. V'landys to join the ARL Commission, to assist in programs & strategies to reduce NRL player off-field misbehaviour.

Fuller, a strong RL fan, said, re some NRL players' off-field behaviour

"They're doing incredible damage to the reputation of the game".

(Scroll to my post#468)

Some AFL players have also been involved in many off-field scandals- but the incidents are far more frequent in the NRL.


SMH's A. Webster said 22.2.21 that P. V'landys also invited M. Fuller to join the ARLC because of fears there may be increasing links between organised crime figures & NRL players- & quotes V'landys expressing these concerns.

Such player/criminal contacts, if widespread, would severely tarnish the NRL's, & GR RL's, reputation in Qld., NSW, & ACT.
(Scroll to post# 469 for full SMH article)
 
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GCS in 11

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Long term with the Olympics in 2032, the current preferred option is a brand new 50,000 seat Stadium just north east of the CBD with plenty of space unlike the GABBA which is pretty boxed in and doesn’t really have space for redevelopment.
D9B5D6AA-01FB-4D55-99D8-8B303794E7C2.jpeg

B62EFBE4-5C77-4E90-A50F-D1BB73F9229A.jpeg

If this happens that’s a massive boost to the Lions and the AFL, you could see them go from averaging 25,000 in a dated GABBA to 40,000-45,000 in the new Olympic Stadium very easily without the AFL having to put in anything.
 

Freomaniac

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I dont think history or current experience supports that theory. A-League was soccer's big 'break out' and it has proven unsustainable. Nor is is alone in its inability to grow from minor sport to major sport (in the Australian context). Over the past 40 years a number of 3rd tier sports have had their moments in the sun - Baseball in the late 80's, Basketball in the '90s (and perhaps again in the 20's), soccer in the last decade.... all rise and then ebb as the third sport - because they rise on novelty and fall on lack of substance and genuine economic scale. Soccer wasnt the first, wont be the last and will have periodic relevance from time to time, but frankly, all it took was one good counter punch from the slow moving cricket authorities by introducing BBL to blow A-League out of the water and destroy the carefully manufactured facade of soccer's "inevitable rise" in Australia. One novelty event, to blow down another novelty event. That's all it took.

..and that, in its essence is the challenge for AFL in queensland. NRL is not a novelty event - it has deep deep roots that must be respected. You are not going to make long term inroads in that market with a novelty event - and we can include the hosting of an AFL GF as exactly that. Good publicity but it s a novelty. that is not reflective of or guarantee of any long term advance. The Qld GF is just an anomaly that fell in the AFL's lap and they were right to leverage the opportunity. However the AFL would appear sensible enough to know it's pre-existing long term approach in NRL markets is the right one - slow, steady growth, forming deep roots; The odd Warwick Capper, the odd Buddy Franklin can help - but you'll notice the Lions recent resurgence has not relied on a single gimmick exercise. No boom recruit, no change of Guernsey or re-branding, no change of venue, or song. It is an attractive football club with community credibility beyond novelty. Not dominant in Qld, but credible.
the BBL blew the A-league out the water..... Then the BBL blew it self up as well as it tried to double dip it's product.

BBL was good for 2 months of the year when it had 8 rounds of action. But when it expanded to 14 rounds and each team faced each of the 7 opponents twice, it got diluted and bled
 

AstroboyUK

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AstroboyUK said:
I dont think history or current experience supports that theory. A-League was soccer's big 'break out' and it has proven unsustainable. Nor is is alone in its inability to grow from minor sport to major sport (in the Australian context). Over the past 40 years a number of 3rd tier sports have had their moments in the sun - Baseball in the late 80's, Basketball in the '90s (and perhaps again in the 20's), soccer in the last decade.... all rise and then ebb as the third sport - because they rise on novelty and fall on lack of substance and genuine economic scale. Soccer wasnt the first, wont be the last and will have periodic relevance from time to time, but frankly, all it took was one good counter punch from the slow moving cricket authorities by introducing BBL to blow A-League out of the water and destroy the carefully manufactured facade of soccer's "inevitable rise" in Australia. One novelty event, to blow down another novelty event. That's all it took.

..and that, in its essence is the challenge for AFL in queensland. NRL is not a novelty event - it has deep deep roots that must be respected. You are not going to make long term inroads in that market with a novelty event - and we can include the hosting of an AFL GF as exactly that. Good publicity but it s a novelty. that is not reflective of or guarantee of any long term advance. The Qld GF is just an anomaly that fell in the AFL's lap and they were right to leverage the opportunity. However the AFL would appear sensible enough to know it's pre-existing long term approach in NRL markets is the right one - slow, steady growth, forming deep roots; The odd Warwick Capper, the odd Buddy Franklin can help - but you'll notice the Lions recent resurgence has not relied on a single gimmick exercise. No boom recruit, no change of Guernsey or re-branding, no change of venue, or song. It is an attractive football club with community credibility beyond novelty. Not dominant in Qld, but credible.


the BBL blew the A-league out the water..... Then the BBL blew it self up as well as it tried to double dip it's product.

BBL was good for 2 months of the year when it had 8 rounds of action. But when it expanded to 14 rounds and each team faced each of the 7 opponents twice, it got diluted and bled
Yes, BBL being a novelty event shares similar vulnerabilities to A-League. In itself it has no deep roots, and depends on novelty (which is lost by increased volume) - so its proven to be fragile when they tinkered the wrong way. The only difference is that BBL leverages the underlying foundation of cricket in Australia - national, culturally universal,long history etc. A-Leagues soccer foundation is just not that omnipotent and doesn't have the scale to compensate for A-Leagues weaknesses over the long term.

Its entirely possible BBL will also be overtaken by some other summer novelty event in coming years; but only BBL, not Cricket itself. So in a small way, A-Leagues's Cricket challenge in Summer is not dissimilar to the AFL's NRL challenge in QLD - only, thankfully, the AFL are approaching it the right way: building long term substance.
 
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