AFL R7

[foxy_dal]

Good week so far, just one actual play for today:

2 units Pavlich Over Johnson SC @ $1.88
In the last 4 Pav is up 3-1 as he started a the season slowly. Johnsons previous best average is 87 while Pav has been an SC premium for many years with a low of just a 99 average in the last 9 years apart from last years injury interrupted 81. As he is getting older we can't expect him to average 100 again but seeing as Johnson's best is 87 I think we can expect Pav to win this more times than now.

Went alright on the Player A disposals under multis with Player B over Player A in DT yesterday so am having a crack at various combos of the below:

Dal Santo U27.5/Prestia Over Dal Santo DT @ $3.60
Cunnington U25.5/Harvey Over Cunnington DT @ $3.51
Cotchin U27.5/Selwood Over Cotchin DT @ $3.27
Jackson U24,5/Martin Over Jackson DT @ $3.64
Masten U26.5/Priddis Over Masten DT @ $3.27
D.Pearce U22.5/Pavlich Over Pearce DT @ $3.64

Don't necessarily think the unders are fantastic plays on their own but together they are value and you only need to get 2 of the above to get your money back.

 

[Keystone agony]

Nothing on your mob at the line mate? Thought they were certs?

Yep lost out in that game. Was yet to add. Did i say they were 'certainties' anywhere?

 

[Keystone agony]

Good week so far, just one actual play for today:

2 units Pavlich Over Johnson SC @ $1.88
In the last 4 Pav is up 3-1 as he started a the season slowly. Johnsons previous best average is 87 while Pav has been an SC premium for many years with a low of just a 99 average in the last 9 years apart from last years injury interrupted 81. As he is getting older we can't expect him to average 100 again but seeing as Johnson's best is 87 I think we can expect Pav to win this more times than now.

Went alright on the Player A disposals under multis with Player B over Player A in DT yesterday so am having a crack at various combos of the below:

Dal Santo U27.5/Prestia Over Dal Santo DT @ $3.60
Cunnington U25.5/Harvey Over Cunnington DT @ $3.51
Cotchin U27.5/Selwood Over Cotchin DT @ $3.27
Jackson U24,5/Martin Over Jackson DT @ $3.64
Masten U26.5/Priddis Over Masten DT @ $3.27
D.Pearce U22.5/Pavlich Over Pearce DT @ $3.64

Don't necessarily think the unders are fantastic plays on their own but together they are value and you only need to get 2 of the above to get your money back.

Gonna get on a few of these.

Gone J.Selwood over 27.5 disposals and him to beat cotch DT @3.27 0.5 U

 

[Keystone agony]

I was all over the web looking for the Jake Melksham over 60 SC point market and ready to load up at ANY price, luckily for me i couldnt find one, Jakey got close, 17 disposal for 58 points, personally i think Champion Data screwed him this week, again.

So you go by SC points to rate players.

Confirms

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Throwing this out there as a very very good bet:

Sportingbet my match:

Geelong $1.92 vs NTH $1.76

The Geelong vs Richmond line is larger (27.5) than the North vs GC (24.5)

NTH have averaged 77.17 points per game so far in 2014, while averaging 80 points a game at the dome and average 76.33 points per game against top 8 teams in 2014 and for those of you who think GC are a bottom eight team, they average 78 points per game.

GEE have averaged 96.5 points per game this year, while averaging exactly the same amount at the MCG and average 106 points a game against bottom 8 teams in 2014.

+19.33 point difference in Geelong's favour on all games played in 2014, +16.5 point difference in Geelong's favour at todays venues in 2014 and a +28 to +29.66 point difference in Geelongs's favour against opposition quality.

GC have averaged 89.5 points against per game in 2014, yet to play a game at the dome and averaging 117.5 against per game when playing top 8 teams in 2014.
RICH have averaged 94 points against per game in 2014, while averaging 104 points against them at the MCG and averaging 105 points against per game when playing top 8 teams in 2014.

+5.5 point difference in Geelong's favour on all games played in 2014. + 12.5 difference in North's favour against opposition quality.

No matter which way you analyse these numbers they add up to Geelong's favour. Weather betting may put some of you off, not me, giddy up.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

So you go by SC points to rate players.

Confirms

Not always, great back's get shafted a fair bit, but for midfielders its generally a very good indication of their ability/effectiveness.

Champion Data just dont understand how good Jakey Melksham is, i know, it annoys me too!

 

[ricardogp]

5u profit is reliant on Geelong winning by 40. Looking around for other value. Wondering if Suns are a chance...

Sent from my HTC One S using Tapatalk

 

[Jay-Z]

Good week so far, just one actual play for today:

2 units Pavlich Over Johnson SC @ $1.88
In the last 4 Pav is up 3-1 as he started a the season slowly. Johnsons previous best average is 87 while Pav has been an SC premium for many years with a low of just a 99 average in the last 9 years apart from last years injury interrupted 81. As he is getting older we can't expect him to average 100 again but seeing as Johnson's best is 87 I think we can expect Pav to win this more times than now.

Went alright on the Player A disposals under multis with Player B over Player A in DT yesterday so am having a crack at various combos of the below:

Dal Santo U27.5/Prestia Over Dal Santo DT @ $3.60
Cunnington U25.5/Harvey Over Cunnington DT @ $3.51
Cotchin U27.5/Selwood Over Cotchin DT @ $3.27
Jackson U24,5/Martin Over Jackson DT @ $3.64
Masten U26.5/Priddis Over Masten DT @ $3.27
D.Pearce U22.5/Pavlich Over Pearce DT @ $3.64

Don't necessarily think the unders are fantastic plays on their own but together they are value and you only need to get 2 of the above to get your money back.

Having a go at a few of these today too but funnily enough, the opposite of what you have chosen.

Dal Santo O27.5 & Dal Santo > Prestia DT @ 3.42 - 1 unit
Dal Santo O27.5 & Dal Santo > Prestia DT & Prestia U27.5 @ 6.15 - 1 unit
Jackson O24.5 & Jackson > Martin DT @ 3.36 - 1 unit

Also Cotchin U27.5 & Selwood > Cotchin DT @ 3.27 - 1 unit

 

[laam]

If you guys win a few of these multis, you will likely get banned/winning bets cancelled and losing bets allowed to continue.

 

[laam]

1u riewoldt < 2.5 goals @ 1.9
1u martin < 24.5 disposals @ 1.9
1u fyfe > 103.5 DT @ 2

 

[Jay-Z]

If you guys win a few of these multis, you will likely get banned/winning bets cancelled and losing bets allowed to continue.

Doubt it. I'm doing pretty small units at the moment.

 

[Quite Ironic]

Priddis > disposals than fyFE $1.75

 

[sneak]

Roof open or closed at etihad today

 

[GoodesStuff]

Roof open or closed at etihad today

Closed.

 

[X_box_X]

A question for those good at Maths.

I noticed they had something similar for week one of the Finals a couple of years ago with another agency... last night Pinnacle released an NBA market for home teams winning game seven in the playoffs. Under and Over 3.5 wins opened at $1.942. The overs were backed into $1.70.

How can you work out whether or not the initial $1.94 for overs represented good value for 80%+ home teams winning game seven?

I think it was Betstar who did this for the first four games in the 2012 finals (under and over 2.5 wins for home teams).

Assuming odds for the home teams were: $1.30, $1.50, $1.55 and $1.75... and assume under and over 2.5 wins is paying $1.90. What equation would determine where the value is?

 

[Keystone agony]

Not always, great back's get shafted a fair bit, but for midfielders its generally a very good indication of their ability/effectiveness.

Champion Data just dont understand how good Jakey Melksham is, i know, it annoys me too!

He came 3rd in our b&f last year. Not bad for a side that actually were a top 6 side for that year

Hes been doing alot of negating roles so I wouldnt think they would score well SC wise. Yday was his worse game for the year and it wasnt poor/terrible

 

[Keystone agony]

J.Selwood over cotch and j.selwood 27.5 posses + 0.5u @3.27

J.selwood over cotch and cotch under 27.5 posses @3.27 0.5U

NDS over 27.5 posses and over prestia in dt points 0.5U

D.Pearce over 22.5 posses over pavlich in DT points 0.5U

 

[BROOMY]

1U Geelong -28.5/Cotchin Under 27.5 Disposals @ $3.59
2U Johnson Over 116.5 DT @ $1.75

 

[The_Big_Ship]

Richmond
Freo 40+

50 @ 20.64

 

[Aed0s]

2U - Geelong -29.5 @ 1.91

 

[FootyStar#1]

goddamn lynch pushing it over 39.5 after the siren. Thanks alot

 

[TheKanga]

2u WCE H2H @ 2.75

 

[happy punter]

Eagles +15.5 over Dockers @ 1.90 (2 units)
Eagles over Dockers @ 2.90 (1 unit)

 

[danielgb123]

Last game of the round, I like the following

Sandilands under 42.5 hit outs @ $1.65

Mundy > 103.5 DT @ $1.87

Priddis > 28.5 disposals @ $1.87.. Crowley will take him and do a crap job or he will go h2h with someone

Pearce > 22.5 disposals @ $1.87.. Probably the most solid of the lot

What do you guys think?

 

[TheKanga]

Think im done with punting for awhile not getting anywhere