AFL R7

[foxy_dal]

Getting an eary SC line in which stand out:

4 units Hooker under 108.5 SC @ $1.87
This is a big line for a defender as I don't think any defender has averaged over that in recent years apart from midfielders who play in the backline.
He is averaging just 100 and has gone covered this line an even 3-3 so far. This is a breakout year for Hooker who has risen from a previous best average of 77. He is more likely to be a 90 average player and has over performed to date in my opinion.

Rather then just using a predicted yearly average I had a look at how players go against the Dogs and in particular defenders. There have been 26 scores over 108 (averaged of 4.5 per game) conceded by them with 24 of those being mainly midfielders plus a few forwards and rucks. The other 2 were Shaw (110) and Hampton (109) in the same game which are obviously only just over.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Getting an eary SC line in which stand out:

4 units Hooker under 108.5 SC @ $1.87

Like it dal, who's that through? would tail but fear its with a bookie im not with..

EDIT: Found it, Sportsbet, like it, all over it like white on rice. Good find.

 

[iluvparis]

It doesnt. You're betting with your heart not your head.

The line is where it should be at based on Essendons last 3 performances.

Wish I had kept stats from Rd 1 on how often clubs are tipped by their own supporters on here. Feel Essendon would be miles ahead of any other club.

 

[banana_bus]

Getting an eary SC line in which stand out:

4 units Hooker under 108.5 SC @ $1.87
This is a big line for a defender as I don't think any defender has averaged over that in recent years apart from midfielders who play in the backline.
He is averaging just 100 and has gone covered this line an even 3-3 so far. This is a breakout year for Hooker who has risen from a previous best average of 77. He is more likely to be a 90 average player and has over performed to date in my opinion.

Rather then just using a predicted yearly average I had a look at how players go against the Dogs and in particular defenders. There have been 26 scores over 108 (averaged of 4.5 per game) conceded by them with 24 of those being mainly midfielders plus a few forwards and rucks. The other 2 were Shaw (110) and Hampton (109) in the same game which are obviously only just over.

Gotta love Stevie J for over 120.5 don't we? Check out what similar players have scored against Richmond this year.

Wish I had kept stats from Rd 1 on how often clubs are tipped by their own supporters on here. Feel Essendon would be miles ahead of any other club.

Just a couple of one-eyed supporters on here mate. I personally think $4 for Richmond to make the 8 is pretty good, but I wouldn't preach it on here. Oh wait...

 

[Bunk Moreland]

Wish I had kept stats from Rd 1 on how often clubs are tipped by their own supporters on here. Feel Essendon would be miles ahead of any other club.

It's Collingwood clearly, no secret - they're always unders and get backed in due to their supporter base always smashing them.

You constantly see it in the prices.

 

[TheMcGrathMan]

Lions +30.5 @ $1.92
-Swans look like they might go in pretty top heavy, Lions should restrict their scoring pretty well and I don't think Sydney will go 'bang' like Hawthorn did (back when the Lions had closer to a full team - this week should just be 'Berger and Rich, Berger being covered well by West and Pyke won't cause many problems anyway). Swans also are in 2nd gear, if this was round 16 I'd be all over Sydney like a rash, but they are still settling a lot of players back in.

If all the money comes in for Geelong & Collingwood I'll be looking at Carlton & Richmond +5-6 goals-ish too. Carlton will be up for a Pies game, Pies should still get them but there's always value looking at these big rivalry games, and I think Richmond might take it up to the Cats for 3/4's before the Cats class shines through with a win, but I don't think the Cats will be looking to kill themselves before the bye, they will just do the job as usual (+30.5 not enough though, would like to see this closer to 6 goals).

Adelaide/Melbourne U173.5 @ $1.88, Hawthorn/St Kilda O182.5 @ $1.88 multi'd @ $3.53

Hawks 40+/Adelaide 40+/North 1-39/Fremantle 1-39 long shot multi @ $13.40

 

[banana_bus]

Lions +30.5 @ $1.92
-Swans look like they might go in pretty top heavy, Lions should restrict their scoring pretty well and I don't think Sydney will go 'bang' like Hawthorn did (back when the Lions had closer to a full team - this week should just be 'Berger and Rich, Berger being covered well by West and Pyke won't cause many problems anyway).

You're forgetting Tom Dericx

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

So many shorties but i think the Pies are the overs of all of them actually, should be around the $1.15 to $1.20 for me. Little bit of value there still at $1.27.

Form wise it isnt even close. Carlton have beaten a terribly out of form WCE, the Dogs and before that lost to Melbourne. Both of those wins against much lesser opposition than they will face this week while under the roof of the Dome, back on the G this week where Collingwood play their best football and Carlton have been terrible this year.

As for the rivalry, Essendon v Carlton was supposed to be a rivalry too and look how that turned out. Not saying it wil be a 100 point flogging, but anywhere between the 6-10 goal range is how much i would expect the Pies to win this game by.

 

[TheMcGrathMan]

You're forgetting Tom Dericx

Knew I was forgetting someone! Sydney 100+

 

[Charlsy19]

Like it dal, who's that through? would tail but fear its with a bookie im not with..

EDIT: Found it, Sportsbet, like it, all over it like white on rice. Good find.

Where did you find this? I can't find any SC or DT line bets on sportsbet.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Where did you find this? I can't find any SC or DT line bets on sportsbet.

AUSTRALIAN RULES>AFL SUPER COACH>INDIVIDUAL PLAYER SCORES (next to the sweet 16 tab under the header)

 

[Charlsy19]

Getting an eary SC line in which stand out:

4 units Hooker under 108.5 SC @ $1.87

Already into $1.70 from $1.87

 

[jaymasha]

Getting an eary SC line in which stand out:

4 units Hooker under 108.5 SC @ $1.87
This is a big line for a defender as I don't think any defender has averaged over that in recent years apart from midfielders who play in the backline.
He is averaging just 100 and has gone covered this line an even 3-3 so far. This is a breakout year for Hooker who has risen from a previous best average of 77. He is more likely to be a 90 average player and has over performed to date in my opinion.

Rather then just using a predicted yearly average I had a look at how players go against the Dogs and in particular defenders. There have been 26 scores over 108 (averaged of 4.5 per game) conceded by them with 24 of those being mainly midfielders plus a few forwards and rucks. The other 2 were Shaw (110) and Hampton (109) in the same game which are obviously only just over.

tailed this, got in while he was still at $1.87.

1U

 

[free at last]

Betting $50 @ $20.72 for a two leg multi pies v blues into hawks v saints both 150 points or less.

BOM is forecasting a fair amount of rain around especially on Friday in Victoria.

 

[foxy_dal]

Gotta love Stevie J for over 120.5 don't we? Check out what similar players have scored against Richmond this year.

It's a bit big for me I think. Statistically that is higher then he has averaged before so I think it is a pretty spot on line. If I could get him in a head to head with any player other than Selwood I will be keen however.

 

[ricardogp]

Just analysing some Brisbane scores...

Brisbane have conceded an average of 73 points per game in the 2nd half (compared to 42 in the first half). Big time faders.

While Sydney have not scored big in their 2nd half (average of 37, and only twice over 37 points), there could be some value in 2nd half markets.

SB have the last quarter line at -8.5 @ $1.92, and Brisbane have lost 5 of their last 6 final-quarters by more than 10 (by average of 16).

1U for me.

 

[ricardogp]

Also a stab at:

0.5U Hawks 60+ / Cats 40+ @ $5.40

 

[Anzac16]

The more I look at it, the more I like the Total Points Unders for the Crows vs Melbourne clash. All of Melbourne's games this year have gone under this margin with their new defensive style game making their losses seem a bit better. Scattered showers for the game potentially. Even though games have been high scoring at Adelaide Oval, I see Melbourne playing a similar game to what they did against Sydney. Melbourne will probably score anywhere from 40-60 points you would think, leaving the Crows needing to score 110-130 to beat the line. Pretty big effort against the Dees defensive unit especially if its raining. Crows have scoring 130+ twice this year though, against GWS and Saints. Both these teams play more aggressive though. Tex Walker back for the Crows might allow them to stack the team with talls, but if it rains what good is that. Will be raining all week in Adelaide so ground will be fairly soft and slippery regards of rain.

 

[d3ft]

The more I look at it, the more I like the Total Points Unders for the Crows vs Melbourne clash. All of Melbourne's games this year have gone under this margin with their new defensive style game making their losses seem a bit better. Scattered showers for the game potentially. Even though games have been high scoring at Adelaide Oval, I see Melbourne playing a similar game to what they did against Sydney. Melbourne will probably score anywhere from 40-60 points you would think, leaving the Crows needing to score 110-130 to beat the line. Pretty big effort against the Dees defensive unit especially if its raining. Crows have scoring 130+ twice this year though, against GWS and Saints. Both these teams play more aggressive though. Tex Walker back for the Crows might allow them to stack the team with talls, but if it rains what good is that. Will be raining all week in Adelaide so ground will be fairly soft and slippery regards of rain.

I think you're spot on. The bookies, for some reason, have clearly not noted Melbourne's new "let's hold onto the ball more so we don't get done by 150 points" strategy Roos has implemented. Tex being included would be a plus as they'd most likely try to play him into form by getting it to him as much as possible. A bloke who's rusty as hell is much less chance of setting the scoreboard alight.

 

[John of all Johns]

As I am only new to this I am only using TAB. But thinking of doing this multi. Any valid reasons why I shouldn't other than saving my money lol.
Pies over 15.5
GC +28.5
Freo -13.5
3u x 5.59.

I think its great.

 

[chrisdon16]

Hawks
Port
Crows
Sydney
Essendon
Geelong

@$2.18

Can any if these teams lose realistically?

 

[TheKanga]

Not sure why everyone think Freo will win, especially at that line.
I couldn't take that with any confidence....

 

[chrisdon16]

Not sure why everyone think Freo will win, especially at that line.
I couldn't take that with any confidence....

If the Weegles can lose to Carlton, then they are no chance against Freo

 

[TheKanga]

Carlton vs. Collingwood - Total Match Points Under 172.5
Adelaide vs. Melbourne - Total Match Points Under 173.5

2u @ 3.53

 

[TheKanga]

If the Weegles can lose to Carlton, then they are no chance against Freo

Credit where it's due it was a good comeback by the Blues, this could be the turning point for them?
Also the Eagles could have won that with the dozen missed shots in the last few minutes.

I just think that Freo have issues and are going to slide, will be lucky to scrape into finals IMO.
They struggle to kick a winning score.

That said i won't be betting on this game at all.