AFL R7

[Keystone agony]

1U - Ward Over 95.5 DT @ $1.87 (Luxbet)
1U - Dal Santo Over 96.5 DT @ $1.87 (Luxbet)
1U - Betts 2+ Goals @ $2.15 (Luxbet)

Ward has averaged 93 this year even with that sub affected score of 44. Only had 59 against the Bulldogs at Star Track in Round 4 with the Wallis tag, but other than that has had scores of 111, 110, 119 and 116 this year. 105, 83 and 126 against Port in his last 3. Port haven't really tagged anyone so far this year, so tipping him to have a decent game.

Dal Santo has 97 this year including the Macaffer tag for a 75 and a 74 against Essendon in R1. 105,115,110 and 100 in his other 4 matches. 111, 87, 154 in his last 3 against GC. Gold Coast another team who haven't tagged much this year, and Harvey and Wells seem bigger targets for most teams this year.

Also liking Betts to kick 2 or more goals against Melbourne this week @ $2.15 on Luxbet. Dees playing more defensive this year, but can see the Crows still kicking anywhere around 15 goals against them. Betts has bags of 4 and 5 goals against Melbourne in the last 2 years. Bags on 2,4,1,1,1,2 in his games this year. Should slide home 2 I reckon.

I like all those bets Anzac. Already got on the Ward one.

DalSanto one makes sense aswell.

Betts good value there aswell. Does that win if he kicks 2 goals?

 

[I Lost My Keays]

2 units Sidebottom over Gibbs DT @ $1.75
Average of 104 to 98 and Sidebottom has been averaging 121 in the last 4 since a move to the midfield I believe. With the odds also favoring a Collingwood win that also helps slightly. Last year Sidebottom averaged 96 to Gibbs 89 and 106 to 92 the year before. Gibbs has had some big years of 106 and 107 but for whatever reason hasn't reached those numbers for a few years.

2 units Simpson over Walker DT @ $1.75
Simpson leads the average 96 to 87 and the H2H 4-1. Simpson has been a much more consistent DT'er with averages of 85, 93, 95, 101 and 90 while Walker has managed 87, 87, 73, 76, 78.

1 unit Dempster over Gwilt SC @ $1.88
Gwilt plays more of a key position role at times while Dempster has been lose/running around more in the backline. Both averaging 91 which is likely more than what they both average by seasons end. Gwilts has a previous best average of 82 and is usually under 70. Dempster hasn't really been a SC god himself but his best is 87. Very slight edge to Dempster here and with not much else taking my interest I'll have a crack.

2 units Ebert over Wines SC @ $1.85
Average of 111 v 109 and Ebert has won this 4 of last 5. Not sure either can keep up the average but Ebert is the more established player and in the slightly better form. Will jump on board after he burnt me last week trying to take his unders!

3 units Sloane Over Jones DT @ $1.85
Taking this based on Kerridge going to Jones. Kerridge has kept Griffen (60), Ward (44 but subed out), Montagna (not 100% on who he played on here) (65), Jack (101) and Boak (67). Sloane has 5 scores over 105 and the other a 94 last week and given he is playing Melbourne should have no trouble getting this.

2 units Dangerfield over Sloane SC @ $1.80
Danger is back. Sloane has had a better year so far but Danger was playing injured (still may be I guess?) so I am ignoring his early season scores. If fully fit this is a 120 average player v 110-115. Both will rip Melbourne up but see what Danger did to GWS...

Might seem strange to back Sloane once then fade him but I guess I see the game going something like Jones 80 DT, Sloane 110 DT/SC and Danger I could see getting another 150+ SC.

2 units Jack over Parker SC @ $1.90
This season Parker has averaged more at 103 v 100 and won this 3-2 but Jack is truly a 110 ppg player given his previous years average of 109 and 112. His last 2 weeks have given 110 and 111 so he might just be back to his usual scores. Parker has been very consistant with a low of 87 but he also only has 2 100+ scores.

Also have the 4U on Hooker U108.5 SC @1.87 from earlier in the thread.

YTD 46-20 +36.71 units

I'm looking at Hartlett over Gray DT , thoughts?

 

[Anzac16]

I like all those bets Anzac. Already got on the Ward one.

DalSanto one makes sense aswell.

Betts good value there aswell. Does that win if he kicks 2 goals?

Yeah 2 goals counts as well. Only reason I got on it. 3 would be pushing it a bit I reckon.

 

[Keystone agony]

I'm looking at Hartlett over Gray DT , thoughts?

gray has avg over 110 in his last 3 games.

However that has coincided with Monfries being out, who is an IN for the power this week.

Although having said that, Hartlett IIRC was tagged by Palmer last year on at least one occassion which i remember it meant he was kept to around 30 odd points. GWS havnt been tagging this year, however i would avoid. Too many variables in play here.

 

[I Lost My Keays]

Brisbane and Sydney game under 172.5 points? Sydney are a defensive team I think it's excellent value of $1.88

 

[Anzac16]

gray has avg over 110 in his last 3 games.

However that has coincided with Monfries being out, who is an IN for the power this week.

Although having said that, Hartlett IIRC was tagged by Palmer last year on at least one occassion which i remember it meant he was kept to around 30 odd points. GWS havnt been tagging this year, however i would avoid. Too many variables in play here.

Last week was the first week Gray played mainly as a forward. Midfield the 2 weeks before than rotating forward. Reckon he might return to that in the coming weeks. Hard to say exactly what his role is going to be this week against GWS.

 

[foxy_dal]

I'm looking at Hartlett over Gray DT , thoughts?

Tough one, Hartlett average of 95 v 91 and it's 3-3. Both havn't been this high before and Gray has had the better last 3 weeks. If I had to pick I would go Hartlett.

 

[Keystone agony]

1U Jono Brown less than 2- goals @1.80
Will be a tough game against Sydney and Ted Richards.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

1U Jono Brown less than 2- goals @1.80
Will be a tough game against Sydney and Ted Richards.

Will be a late withdrawal ive heard.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

DT Bets for me:

Prestia $1.85 over Dal Santo
Omeara $1.88 over Swallow
Wright $2.00 over Smith
Sidebottom $1.75 over Gibbs
Treloar $1.70 over Coniglio
Hannebery $2 over Zorko
Duncan $1.95 over Kelly

Bigger bets on the top 3

 

[laam]

1u duncan > kelly DT @ 1.95
kelly playing half back last few weeks, duncan is 3-1 over the last 4

2u macrae > griffin @ 1.8
tailing

1u brown < 2 goals DNB @ 1.76

as I posted in KAs thread a middle
5u n jones < 112.5 @ 1.87 (b365)
3u n jones > 97.5 @ 1.95 (lux)

 

[Anzac16]

5u n jones < 112.5 @ 1.87 (b365)

Will tail this with 1U with the Kerridge tag for Jones. Good spot.

 

[I Lost My Keays]

My Multi

Brisbane and Sydney under 172.5 points
Geelong to beat Richmond
Collingwood to beat Carlton
Steele Sidebottom > Gibbs DT
Hawthorn 40+

$7.25

 

[I Lost My Keays]

Brad Ebert to score more than 106.5 DT (Very Good Value) Scores - 100 v Carlton , 127 v Adelaide , 91 v NM , 152 v BL , 125 v WCE , 112 v Geelong

 

[foxy_dal]

Nice find on the Jones bet i'm having 4 units on that @ $1.87 too

 

[stewie griffen]

Port haven't really tagged anyone so far this year, so tipping him to have a decent game.

Huh? We tagged the crap out of selwood last week, it's Kane's main job

 

[laam]

Also going the
1u ebert > 106.5 @ 1.87
2u Melbourne Adelaide < 183.6 @ 1.88

Sent from my GT-I9505 using Tapatalk

 

[laam]

Yeah 2 goals counts as well. Only reason I got on it. 3 would be pushing it a bit I reckon.

Sorry guys but for this bet 2 goals is a refund not win
Also remembered 1u 6pac special @6

 

[stewie griffen]

Some interesting Bernie Vince markets on sportingbet - over/under on disposals is 25.5 with goals line at 0.5.

 

[banana_bus]

Some interesting Bernie Vince markets on sportingbet - over/under on disposals is 25.5 with goals line at 0.5.

Unders yes please

 

[Anzac16]

Huh? We tagged the crap out of selwood last week, it's Kane's main job

Not really tagging anyone in a shutdown sense anymore bar the absolute elite. Been used in a run with role most weeks whilst he getting a heap of the ball. Can't see Hinkley getting Kornes to run with anyone this week being that you should smash them. Could be wrong though.

 

[Anzac16]

Sorry guys but for this bet 2 goals is a refund not win
Also remembered 1u 6pac special @6

Ah really? Clever wording on their part. Still confident he can kick a bag this week.

 

[chrisdon16]

Dons have beat the dogs last 4 times by an average of 54 pts. Plus 2 huge ins. Hocking is a very under rated player and Goddard is Goddard. Just wish they picked bellchambers.

 

[IloveyouGibbs4]

Contemplating putting $1000 on Troy Menzel to be an anytime goal score, at $1.32. He has scored in every game that he has started on field. Starting on forward pocket today, as well as being a small forward in the wet, call me crazy!

 

[chrisdon16]

Contemplating putting $1000 on Troy Menzel to be an anytime goal score, at $1.32. He has scored in every game that he has started on field. Starting on forward pocket today, as well as being a small forward in the wet, call me crazy!

Pretty risky. What if he gets injured in the 1st 5 mins?