AFL R7

[Spads]

Will be doing something similar with a few different combinations this round. Fun fact for you all - 7/9 games in Round 6 went Under the TMP line (and it would have been 8/9 if St Kilda hadn't scored that point with a minute left).

Round 6 was particularly low scoring, but it hasn't just been Round 6. The average AFL score in 2014 is 171 versus an average of 185 over the last 7 years.

In fact, the average Total Points in 2014 for matches involving Collingwood, Sydney, North Melbourne, Melbourne, St Kilda or West Coast is under 160.

This of course has been well factored into the Total Points over / unders. The only current lines that seem high are:
North Melbourne (average 151) vs Gold Coast (average 174) - over / under is currently 184.5
Geelong (average 172) vs Richmond (average 176) - over / under is currently 184.5

 

[Jay-Z]

Round 6 was particularly low scoring, but it hasn't just been Round 6. The average AFL score in 2014 is 171 versus an average of 185 over the last 7 years.

In fact, the average Total Points in 2014 for matches involving Collingwood, Sydney, North Melbourne, Melbourne, St Kilda or West Coast is under 160.

This of course has been well factored into the Total Points over / unders. The only current lines that seem high are:
North Melbourne (average 151) vs Gold Coast (average 174) - over / under is currently 184.5
Geelong (average 172) vs Richmond (average 176) - over / under is currently 184.5

Yeah I know, I did a bit of research on the overs/unders market yesterday. The thing I found most interesting (apart from the two games you've highlighted) is that both Melbourne and North Melbourne have gone under on their line 6 games out of 6. So while the bookies may have factored the low scoring into the markets, they're still learning and there is value to be had in the next couple of weeks

Sent from my Nokia 3210

 

[Jay-Z]

I've also had an absolutely shocking last two weeks tipping H2H with all the upsets so i'm trying a different tactic this week with the Total Match Points markets.

 

[Quite Ironic]

You know that last game isn't for another week and a half, right?

yeah but it was a multi so i had no where else to put it. either is dogs v melb.

 

[Quite Ironic]

Which agencies have these markets?

luxbet

 

[Jay-Z]

yeah but it was a multi so i had no where else to put it. either is dogs v melb.

OK, just wanted to make sure you knew that you were betting on events over a two week time period

 

[Jay-Z]

My bets for this round:
*Carl/Coll Under 173.5 & Ade/Melb Under 173.5 @ 3.53 - 0.5 units
Syd/Bri Under 172.5 & Ade/Melb Under 173.5 @ 3.53 - 0.5 units
NM/GC Under 184.5 & Port/GWS Over 171.5 @ 3.53 - 0.5 units
NM/GC Under 184.5 & Gee/Rich Under 184.5 @ 3.53 - 0.5 units
Gee/Rich Under 184.5 & Port/GWS Over 171.5 @ 3.53 - 0.5 units

*Note: Carl/Coll has since come in to 170.5 - wouldn't touch it now.

Plus a couple of long shots:
4 leg multi
NM/GC U
Gee/Rich U
Port/GWS O
Ade/Melb U
@ 12.49

6 leg multi
NM/GC U
Gee/Rich U
Port/GWS O
Haw/StK O
Ade/Mel U
Ess/WB U
@ 44.15

These are all with Sportsbet who do 1.88 for the line. I know Bet365 does 1.91 but they have lower lines (eg they are down to 166.5 for the Coll/Carl game)

 

[robertbn]

Hey guys,
We're plodding along nicely at AFLpredictions.wordpress.com, but I've been absent the last few weeks, so I thought I'd share this week's predictions! Full analysis is on the website. I also put some thoughts (when I can) and post new articles on twitter at @AFLpredictions.

H2H (current odds at Pinnacle):
Carlton at $4.010 (Bet 6.0% of pot)
Greater Western Sydney at $9.160 (Bet 2.0% of pot)
Brisbane at $4.72 (Bet 19.0% of pot)

AWAY bet on Melbourne at $8.600 (Bet 3.0% of pot)
AWAY bet on Richmond at $5.350 (Bet 14.0% of pot)
AWAY bet on Bulldogs at $3.490 (Bet 7.0% of pot)

Line:
Line bet 7.0% of pot on Carlton to lose by less than 23.5 points or win at $2.04
Line bet 33.0% of pot on Brisbane to lose by less than 29.5 points or win at $1.971
Line bet 14.0% of pot on the Kangaroos to win by more than 26.5 points at $1.926
Line bet 15.0% of pot on Richmond to lose by less than 30.5 points or win at $1.917

 

[lamaros]

Hey guys,
We're plodding along nicely at AFLpredictions.wordpress.com, but I've been absent the last few weeks, so I thought I'd share this week's predictions! Full analysis is on the website. I also put some thoughts (when I can) and post new articles on twitter at @AFLpredictions.

H2H (current odds at Pinnacle):
Carlton at $4.010 (Bet 6.0% of pot)
Greater Western Sydney at $9.160 (Bet 2.0% of pot)
Brisbane at $4.72 (Bet 19.0% of pot)

AWAY bet on Melbourne at $8.600 (Bet 3.0% of pot)
AWAY bet on Richmond at $5.350 (Bet 14.0% of pot)
AWAY bet on Bulldogs at $3.490 (Bet 7.0% of pot)

Line:
Line bet 7.0% of pot on Carlton to lose by less than 23.5 points or win at $2.04
Line bet 33.0% of pot on Brisbane to lose by less than 29.5 points or win at $1.971
Line bet 14.0% of pot on the Kangaroos to win by more than 26.5 points at $1.926
Line bet 15.0% of pot on Richmond to lose by less than 30.5 points or win at $1.917

Why do you keep betting lines when there is seemingly so much less value in there?

 

[lamaros]

Hawks
Port
Crows
Sydney
Essendon
Geelong

@$2.18

Can any if these teams lose realistically?

Sydney, Geelong or Crows could lose.

 

[Jay-Z]

Sydney, Geelong or Crows could lose.

Essendon much more of a chance to lose than Geelong IMO

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Essendon much more of a chance to lose than Geelong IMO

Dogs probably the best value bet of the round. Not that im that keen, but finding value that can actually win is very very hard this round.

 

[GROTTO]

Sydney, Geelong or Crows could lose.

I guarantee you the Crows wont lose.

I know we have heard this before lol.

 

[robertbn]

Why do you keep betting lines when there is seemingly so much less value in there?

It's something I've only started experimenting with... But I also don't mind diversifying the betting. Also, it should be less volatile because you're not holding out for upsets, which are less common than a team beating the line (although that hasn't necessarily been true this season).

In practise, it may just be that this algorithm is better at predicting head-to-head likelihoods rather than margins...

 

[lamaros]

Dogs probably the best value bet of the round. Not that im that keen, but finding value that can actually win is very very hard this round.

Carlton are the best value of the round. Dogs will lose by 30+.

 

[Jay-Z]

Carlton are the best value of the round. Dogs will lose by 30+.

I'm sure you said the same about the Saints and the Bulldogs are a better side than St Kilda

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Carlton are the best value of the round. Dogs will lose by 30+.

Wager? Ill take the Dogs you take Carlton, 0 line bet.

Dogs can do anything on their day, Carlton very very limited, Collingwood a much better side than Essendon also.

Perfect example of Essendon supporters being the worst punters AFL punters, so blind to the facts, always backing their own team, even at the unders.

 

[lamaros]

Wager? Ill take the Dogs you take Carlton, 0 line bet.

Dogs can do anything on their day, Carlton very very limited, Collingwood a much better side than Essendon also.

Perfect example of Essendon supporters being the worst punters AFL punters, so blind to the facts, always backing their own team, even at the unders.

Why would I take that bet when the bookies give me better odds?

I turned 6U into 60U last season and I'm up 24U this year so far.

I'm sure you said the same about the Saints and the Bulldogs are a better side than St Kilda

St Kilda are a worse side than Bulldogs generally, I'd agree with that (though it is a very close call). However this is a different game with different circumstances. I certainly didn't bet on Essendon against St. Kilda.

 

[Spads]

Sydney, Geelong or Crows could lose.

Putting the penile measurement contest posts aside, you have a valid point.

In response to the question, "could any favourites possible lose this week?", the answer is a resounding "ahhh, yes..."

Whilst I don't think Adelaide or Geelong are very likely to lose, a minimum of one of Sydney, Collingwood or Essendon will lose.

The fact that there may have been 4 or so upsets during the preceding rounds has no bearing on the number of potential upsets this round.

Given the historical favourite winning percentage of 72%, the next round will on average will always have 2 upsets.

 

[lamaros]

Putting the penile measurement contest posts aside, you have a valid point.

In response to the question, "could any favourites possible lose this week?", the answer is a resounding "ahhh, yes..."

Whilst I don't think Adelaide or Geelong are very likely to lose, a minimum of one of Sydney, Collingwood or Essendon will lose.

The fact that there may have been 4 or so upsets during the preceding rounds has no bearing on the number of potential upsets this round.

Given the historical favourite winning percentage of 72%, the next round will on average will always have 2 upsets.

I would say the most likely favourites to lose, due to the quality of their opponents / injuries, etc are:

Collingwood
North Melbourne
Geelong
Adelaide
Port
Sydney
Fremantle
Essendon
Hawthorn

Mostly because I think Carlton has actually been building some decent form and the Pies could get sucked into one of those 'big game' contest where expectations get challenged; GC hasn't had many 'around them' games and gets a few back against a very inconsistent North; Geelong is at the G and Richmond pull crap out sometimes (Deledio will need to play); I don't rate Adelaide's wins this year and was impressed by Melbourne's effort against the Swans; Port is away from home; Sydney is all over and Brisbane has a a little belief after getting a few players back and a win last week; Fremantle is in a derby but is a better side; Essendon is under the pump against an injured side that is poor to begin with and gets Goddard and a few others back; and Hawthorn are Hawthorn and St Kilda are crap (yes, I know).

 

[Spads]

My bets for this round:
*Carl/Coll Under 173.5 & Ade/Melb Under 173.5 @ 3.53 - 0.5 units
Syd/Bri Under 172.5 & Ade/Melb Under 173.5 @ 3.53 - 0.5 units

I know that Melbourne game totals have been very low, but that is only looking at one side of the question.

Adelaide game totals are the second highest (Only Hawthorn totals are higher) at 196 points per game. Adelaide are also the third highest scoring team in the league. They have maintained this despite playing low scoring teams.

In addition, Melbourne have generally only played low scoring teams.

I expect that this game will generally be played to Adelaide's tempo, with Adelaide playing on at every opportunity and through the corridor.

 

[Jet86]

Lux 6 Pack Special with Cloke, Waite, Murphy, Pendlebury, Swan and Gibbs at $6. Shame it's capped at $50.

 

[Keystone agony]

lamaros

North Melbourne inconsistent? how?

In the last 5 rounds/games they have lost only one game and that was to Collingwood. This season they have played teams such as Collingwood, Bombers, Sydney (away), Freo (away), Port Adelaide which at the time of playing them were all looking like being great teams or have recently been great teams. They have had a tough run.

With ST back, maybe also Swallow and Wells (unsure what way Scott will go with these). Playing at Etihad the place they love the only team to beat Port this year and was from a good comeback.

They havnt been inconsistent this year, they have had one average game against collingwood in what looks like has been one of the toughest draws so far.

Its the reason i have got on them against GC. However i must admit i do have a funny feeling.

I think plenty o favourites could lose this week. Fremantle as betting would suggest should be top of the list IMO.

 

[Jet86]

I know that Melbourne game totals have been very low, but that is only looking at one side of the question.

Adelaide game totals are the second highest (Only Hawthorn totals are higher) at 196 points per game. Adelaide are also the third highest scoring team in the league. They have maintained this despite playing low scoring teams.

In addition, Melbourne have generally only played low scoring teams.

I expect that this game will generally be played to Adelaide's tempo, with Adelaide playing on at every opportunity and through the corridor.

Agree strongly with the above.

Adelaide Oval games so far have had 209, 205, 205, 200 and 174 points scored, with the 174 played between two of the statistically best defensive teams in Geelong and Port.

This one gets played on the Crows terms IMO.

 

[Keystone agony]

I know that Melbourne game totals have been very low, but that is only looking at one side of the question.

Adelaide game totals are the second highest (Only Hawthorn totals are higher) at 196 points per game. Adelaide are also the third highest scoring team in the league. They have maintained this despite playing low scoring teams.

In addition, Melbourne have generally only played low scoring teams.

I expect that this game will generally be played to Adelaide's tempo, with Adelaide playing on at every opportunity and through the corridor.

Will be played in heavy rain

Adelaide have played very average teams so far this year and had the best draw to date. I hope this is a reason as to why they have scored so well this year as you mentioned.