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Keystone agony said:
lamaros

North Melbourne inconsistent? how?

In the last 5 rounds/games they have lost only one game and that was to Collingwood. This season they have played teams such as Collingwood, Bombers, Sydney (away), Freo (away), Port Adelaide which at the time of playing them were all looking like being great teams or have recently been great teams. They have had a tough run.

With ST back, maybe also Swallow and Wells (unsure what way Scott will go with these). Playing at Etihad the place they love the only team to beat Port this year and was from a good comeback.

They havnt been inconsistent this year, they have had one average game against collingwood in what looks like has been one of the toughest draws so far.

Its the reason i have got on them against GC. However i must admit i do have a funny feeling.

I think plenty o favourites could lose this week. Fremantle as betting would suggest should be top of the list IMO.
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They didn't just lose to Essendon and Collingwood, they were embarrassed. Granted that Essendon and Collingwood are decent sides on their day, but GC has that potential, especially if they get close to their best 22. Etihad is the only thing that would really sway me away from it possibly happening.

Fremantle I put in the same boat as Essendon. I stick with my ratings for teams utill the evidence piles up, I don't change based on the last result, and I still have Freo as a very good side and WC as a poor side. Barlow back will only emphasise that.
 
Jet86 said:
Agree strongly with the above.

Adelaide Oval games so far have had 209, 205, 205, 200 and 174 points scored, with the 174 played between two of the statistically best defensive teams in Geelong and Port.

This one gets played on the Crows terms IMO.
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I think with the potential inclement weather on Saturday and the wet week in Adelaide has partially contributed to this low match totals. I guess with the Crows rated as 13th for goal kicking accuracy along with Melbourne coming last could be another factor along with Melbourne games having all low match totals.
 
Spads said:
I know that Melbourne game totals have been very low, but that is only looking at one side of the question.

Adelaide game totals are the second highest (Only Hawthorn totals are higher) at 196 points per game. Adelaide are also the third highest scoring team in the league. They have maintained this despite playing low scoring teams.

In addition, Melbourne have generally only played low scoring teams.

I expect that this game will generally be played to Adelaide's tempo, with Adelaide playing on at every opportunity and through the corridor.
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I know and I thought about this a lot before deciding to include them but in the end, I decided to go with it.

My reasoning is that Melbourne have been struggling to score (as well as keeping the opposition down a bit). They only average 50-odd points per game and I would expect the Crows to be able to keep them to about this again. The crows defense has been a bit hard to read - in their losses they avg 126 points against but in their wins they average 68. That's a pretty substantial difference.

If I'm right, this leaves the Crows needing 120-odd for the game to break the 173 line. They might do this, but I'm backing Melbourne's keepings-off gamestyle and the rain to prevent it.
 
lamaros said:
They didn't just lose to Essendon and Collingwood, they were embarrassed. Granted that Essendon and Collingwood are decent sides on their day, but GC has that potential, especially if they get close to their best 22. Etihad is the only thing that would really sway me away from it possibly happening.

Fremantle I put in the same boat as Essendon. I stick with my ratings for teams utill the evidence piles up, I don't change based on the last result, and I still have Freo as a very good side and WC as a poor side. Barlow back will only emphasise that.
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Round ones round one it means little in the prediction of teams IMO. I remember when i played the opening round for a new team we lost to a shit side by a huge margin we then went onto barely lose another game and win the flag. It means the least of any round.

If you look at the last 5 and recent form they have only had one minor blip on the radar.

Either do i, still think Essendon are one of the better sides when they have everything going right and the same can be said for freo. Im not sure Barlow will play. The eagles have Glass and possiibly Hurn and Lecras returning. Ill till be tipping freo they are just looking to have a few holes at the moment with there side that im seeing.

I dont think Freo are gonna kick much of a score which worries me. Glass, Brown and Mckenzie re good defenders will make life tough for Pav. Mayne is horribly out of form and will get a good defender. I think Ballantyne will need a big game opposed to Bennell he could. We know how Derbys can go so it will be close to the top of my list as an upset occuring.
 

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lamaros said:
They didn't just lose to Essendon and Collingwood, they were embarrassed. Granted that Essendon and Collingwood are decent sides on their day, but GC has that potential, especially if they get close to their best 22. Etihad is the only thing that would really sway me away from it possibly happening.

Fremantle I put in the same boat as Essendon. I stick with my ratings for teams utill the evidence piles up, I don't change based on the last result, and I still have Freo as a very good side and WC as a poor side. Barlow back will only emphasise that.
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Please humour me and tell me where exactly these ratings have Essendon?
 
Keystone agony said:
Round ones round one it means little in the prediction of teams IMO. I remember when i played the opening round for a new team we lost to a shit side by a huge margin we then went onto barely lose another game and win the flag. It means the least of any round.

If you look at the last 5 and recent form they have only had one minor blip on the radar.

Either do i, still think Essendon are one of the better sides when they have everything going right and the same can be said for freo. Im not sure Barlow will play. The eagles have Glass and possiibly Hurn and Lecras returning. Ill till be tipping freo they are just looking to have a few holes at the moment with there side that im seeing.

I dont think Freo are gonna kick much of a score which worries me. Glass, Brown and Mckenzie re good defenders will make life tough for Pav. Mayne is horribly out of form and will get a good defender. I think Ballantyne will need a big game opposed to Bennell he could. We know how Derbys can go so it will be close to the top of my list as an upset occuring.
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Eh, Fremantle have won the last three. WC aren't a good side and they have the learning a new coach on top of that. I'm not sure derby means too much. If Barlow doesn't make it it will be more interesting, though.

A11dAtP0w3R said:
Please humour me and tell me where exactly these ratings have Essendon?
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You can follow my tips all you like and work it out, I'm not going to go out of my way to pander given the tone of your discussion to date.
 
I think Essendon fans are copping a bit of a whack as to how they rate their own team. I like to think im pretty non bias in football. Before the year started i certainly wouldve had the Bombers around that 4-6 mark. They are however now a fair way back but i think will still finish top 8.

Dont want to change the direction of this thread but they have a fair playing list and best 22.

Back 6: baguley, Hooker, Flecther, Hibberd, Dempsey and Hurley is pretty bloody good to me. Carlisle can also be added to this group.

Mids: Ryder and Bellchambers as rucks are a rpetty good combo. Watson, Goddard, Stanton, Heppell, Zaharakis and a tagger like Hocking is pretty elite if you ask me. They also have very capable depth in J.Merrett (having his breakout year), Myers (likewise) and Howlett. Also add Gleeson if you havnt seen him play yet dont comment. I forgot Melksham aswell.

Fwds: Is the battle. Carlisle is a good player but out of form and doesnt look to care. A better defender so far. JoeD inconsistent but plenty of potential as a tall forward i think he has the 2nd or 3rd highest amount of contest marks or something it was mentioned. Chapman and Winderlich are elite small forwards. A resting mid like Goddard usually plays down there and a Zacka/Merrett plays as a high half forward.

Its a good team. Unsure why they are playing so poorly. I dont think Bomber personally is that good anymore and getting caught up in his own ego easy ways. I think flu/gastro whatever ahs run through the club of late, a tough draw 6 day breaks 37 degree heat games in subiaco. The AFL hasnt been genrous to us so far.

Really we have played 2 bad games (freo and saints). Only 1 of which we probably shouldve won and wre initially favourites to and that was the saints game. We were pretty good against a red hot pies. Moat will say they smashed us for 3 qtrs but we did run better than them late in the game just couldnt take our opportunities.

Just to see my predictions. I think Port, Collingwood, Hawks, Geelong, Freo will finish above us. Probably North aswell and we will battle with the swans for next best place. So at very best 6th but likely 7-8th.

FWIW so far i have tipped.
North to beat Dons (Wrong but didnt tip dons)
Dons to beat blues (right)
Hawks to beat dons (right)
Dons to beat Freo (wrong, got this one wrong)
Dons to beat Saints (who didnt tip them?)
Pies to beat Dons (riight)

Only really the freo game i got wrong that could maybe be said to bias of thinking my teams better than they are.
 
iluvparis said:
Stopped reading Essendon ratings summary when Winderlich was described as elite.
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I meant as a combination with Chapman as small forwards combined. But Chapman is elite. Winderlich probably good to very good small forward.

I dont see a whole lot of small forwards right now id pick over him in the comp right now.

Wingard, Elliot, Lecras, L.Thomas, Chapman, Rioli and maybe Gray? (would be the ones). Breust i see as more then a small forward, medium higher up the field type.

Betts been average this year
Walters inj
Ballantyne read Betts

So what takeing away his team mate hes in the top 5-6 small forwards. Maybe not individually elite although very close, but certainly combined with Chapman it is.
 
iluvparis said:
Stopped reading Essendon ratings summary when Winderlich was described as elite.
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Agreed. Keystone Agony, I really love your Dream Team posts and picks, but your AFL analysis is a little simplistic and skewed to generalist public perceptions which are almost always misleading at best. I address this specifically at your post picking all favourite lines.

Essendon have won one of their last five games. They conceded a game to Collingwood whereby they needed just one more goal to have the game iced before half time. They gave up 6 consecutive walk-in goals, within 25m of goal, because they didn't care enough to stop Collingwood's forward running midfielders.
 
Spads said:
Agreed. Keystone Agony, I really love your Dream Team posts and picks, but your AFL analysis is a little simplistic and skewed to generalist public perceptions which are almost always misleading at best. I address this specifically at your post picking all favourite lines.

Essendon have won one of their last five games. They conceded a game to Collingwood whereby they needed just one more goal to have the game iced before half time. They gave up 6 consecutive walk-in goals, within 25m of goal, because they didn't care enough to stop Collingwood's forward running midfielders.
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Read the above post. It was meant that Winderlich and Chapman as a combination are elite small forwards.

We will see how they go. Im confident with most of them.

I have no doubts in dry conditions right now collingwood would/should really destroy Carlton. We will see how much the rain helps in making the game closer.

I now have my doubts over the North and GC line of -26.5 however i see great form by the Roos and GC yet to beat anyone of note. As long as the roos arent too happy with their recent performance they should be too good for the suns. The reason i now have my doubts are Swallow and Wells both wernt named. Whereas GC have Nicholls, Bennell and Dixon possibly as returns.

I would love to know what you mean more by this
 

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iluvparis said:
Stopped reading Essendon ratings summary when Winderlich was described as elite.
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I stopped before that. When Jake Melksham is mentioned as part of your midfield positives you just know the poster wears an eye patch.

Melksham is pure garbage.

When Dempsey was mentioned my brain told me to stop reading, when Melksham was mentioned i felt disappointed with myself for continuing.
 
Am on the Sportsbet money back special for tomorrow night, it states that if the margin is 12+ points in either teams way at quarter time, all losing first goal bets are refunded.

Gone for Waite, Garlett and Menzel.
 
banana_bus said:
Stopped reading when dicks were whipped out.

This has been the worst weekly thread ever.
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Personally I think it's a sign that every fave will win this week ;)
 
1U on Geelong vs Richmond, Geelong line -29.5 1.92
Essendon vs bulldogs, ht line Essendon -10.5 1.90
Gws vs port, port 40+ 1.67
hawthorn vs st Kilda, hawthorn 40+ 1.47

8.95 multi
 

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2 units Sidebottom over Gibbs DT @ $1.75
Average of 104 to 98 and Sidebottom has been averaging 121 in the last 4 since a move to the midfield I believe. With the odds also favoring a Collingwood win that also helps slightly. Last year Sidebottom averaged 96 to Gibbs 89 and 106 to 92 the year before. Gibbs has had some big years of 106 and 107 but for whatever reason hasn't reached those numbers for a few years.

2 units Simpson over Walker DT @ $1.75
Simpson leads the average 96 to 87 and the H2H 4-1. Simpson has been a much more consistent DT'er with averages of 85, 93, 95, 101 and 90 while Walker has managed 87, 87, 73, 76, 78.

1 unit Dempster over Gwilt SC @ $1.88
Gwilt plays more of a key position role at times while Dempster has been lose/running around more in the backline. Both averaging 91 which is likely more than what they both average by seasons end. Gwilts has a previous best average of 82 and is usually under 70. Dempster hasn't really been a SC god himself but his best is 87. Very slight edge to Dempster here and with not much else taking my interest I'll have a crack.

2 units Ebert over Wines SC @ $1.85
Average of 111 v 109 and Ebert has won this 4 of last 5. Not sure either can keep up the average but Ebert is the more established player and in the slightly better form. Will jump on board after he burnt me last week trying to take his unders!

3 units Sloane Over Jones DT @ $1.85
Taking this based on Kerridge going to Jones. Kerridge has kept Griffen (60), Ward (44 but subed out), Montagna (not 100% on who he played on here) (65), Jack (101) and Boak (67). Sloane has 5 scores over 105 and the other a 94 last week and given he is playing Melbourne should have no trouble getting this.

2 units Dangerfield over Sloane SC @ $1.80
Danger is back. Sloane has had a better year so far but Danger was playing injured (still may be I guess?) so I am ignoring his early season scores. If fully fit this is a 120 average player v 110-115. Both will rip Melbourne up but see what Danger did to GWS...

Might seem strange to back Sloane once then fade him but I guess I see the game going something like Jones 80 DT, Sloane 110 DT/SC and Danger I could see getting another 150+ SC.

2 units Jack over Parker SC @ $1.90
This season Parker has averaged more at 103 v 100 and won this 3-2 but Jack is truly a 110 ppg player given his previous years average of 109 and 112. His last 2 weeks have given 110 and 111 so he might just be back to his usual scores. Parker has been very consistant with a low of 87 but he also only has 2 100+ scores.

Also have the 4U on Hooker U108.5 SC @1.87 from earlier in the thread.

YTD 46-20 +36.71 units
 
Pies 25+
Port 25+
Hawks 25+
Geelong H2H
@$3.46
Does anyone see this not getting up? obviously theres always a chance but I'm very confident
 
1U - Ward Over 95.5 DT @ $1.87 (Luxbet)
1U - Dal Santo Over 96.5 DT @ $1.87 (Luxbet)
1U - Betts 2+ Goals @ $2.15 (Luxbet)

Ward has averaged 93 this year even with that sub affected score of 44. Only had 59 against the Bulldogs at Star Track in Round 4 with the Wallis tag, but other than that has had scores of 111, 110, 119 and 116 this year. 105, 83 and 126 against Port in his last 3. Port haven't really tagged anyone so far this year, so tipping him to have a decent game.

Dal Santo has 97 this year including the Macaffer tag for a 75 and a 74 against Essendon in R1. 105,115,110 and 100 in his other 4 matches. 111, 87, 154 in his last 3 against GC. Gold Coast another team who haven't tagged much this year, and Harvey and Wells seem bigger targets for most teams this year.

Also liking Betts to kick 2 or more goals against Melbourne this week @ $2.15 on Luxbet. Dees playing more defensive this year, but can see the Crows still kicking anywhere around 15 goals against them. Betts has bags of 4 and 5 goals against Melbourne in the last 2 years. Bags on 2,4,1,1,1,2 in his games this year. Should slide home 2 I reckon.
 

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