AFL R7

[IloveyouGibbs4]

it is risky hence why I am still in the thinking stage haha. I might put some on it, but don't think I have the balls to risk 1k.

 

[yamahamoto]

Crazy to put 1000 to win 300. Can never justify that.

 

[chrisdon16]

I think you should scrap that and put your K on essendon. I guarantee you'll make $300

 

[alex mcanulty]

Contemplating putting $1000 on Troy Menzel to be an anytime goal score, at $1.32. He has scored in every game that he has started on field. Starting on forward pocket today, as well as being a small forward in the wet, call me crazy!

Dooooooo ittttt. Go big or go home. Got to be in it to win it.

 

[Spads]

I think you should scrap that and put your K on essendon. I guarantee you'll make $300

The chrisdon16 guarantee is even better than the Australian Government Bank Guarantee Scheme. He will personally pay you back if you're bet loses. Get on.

 

[Aed0s]

Contemplating putting $1000 on Troy Menzel to be an anytime goal score, at $1.32. He has scored in every game that he has started on field. Starting on forward pocket today, as well as being a small forward in the wet, call me crazy!

Langdon will keep him to 5 touches and 0 goals. Stay away from this bet.

You shouldn't really be putting all your eggs in one basket. There are some much safer bets out there anyway IMHO.

At least go Collingwood H2H.

 

[Anzac16]

Langdon will keep him to 5 touches and 0 goals. Stay away from this bet.

You shouldn't really be putting all your eggs in one basket. There are some much safer bets out there anyway IMHO.

At least go Collingwood H2H.

Menzel to kick 4 tonight. 20+ disposals and 3 Brownlow votes. Lock it in Eddie.

 

[The GOAT]

it is risky hence why I am still in the thinking stage haha. I might put some on it, but don't think I have the balls to risk 1k.

Better options at $1.30 ish, the guy could be subbed and his team could get belted. Collingwood into Port into Hawthorn is better odds and less risky IMO.

 

[d3ft]

Contemplating putting $1000 on Troy Menzel to be an anytime goal score, at $1.32. He has scored in every game that he has started on field. Starting on forward pocket today, as well as being a small forward in the wet, call me crazy!

Possibly the worst bet I've ever seen suggested on these forums.

And it took me all of 30 seconds to find out he didn't score a goal in Round 23 last year after starting on the field.

 

[Aed0s]

Menzel to kick 4 tonight. 20+ disposals and 3 Brownlow votes. Lock it in Eddie.

In all seriousness I expect it to be a tight match. If Carlton come out and play as they have in their last couple of games then it's going to be a riiper.

Am excited to see how we match up on Daisy.

I think the Collingwood 1-39 margin is good value. We haven't been able to completely put the nail in the coffin in our recent victories so all our wins have been within the 1-39 margin.

Collingwood wins:
Sydney - 20 pts
Richmond - 38 pts (just sneaked in)
North Melbourne - 35 pts
Essendon - 23 pts

I've also had some luck with winning margin, winning margin spread and super margin bets.

For instance, if you think that there's going to be an upset, let's say last weeks St.K vs. Brisbane match, Brisbane to win 1-9 was about 250% more value than them to win H2H, and roughly 125% more value at 1-19.

Even with the WC vs. Carlton game, if you would've went for a Carlton win 1-9 or 1-19 there would've been a much higher pay out for those margins.

Also, Adelaide 1-10 or 1-19 was very high value, or 1-39 to play it safe for these tight games.

For this week, those who are thinking of a Carlton upset over Collingwood, Carlton are $3.85 H2H or $4.40 for the 1-39, with a 40+ victory being very, very, very slim so I would go for the 1-39.

Carlton 1-24 @5.40
1-19 @6.20

Just some ideas.

 

[lamaros]

Why would you ever bet $1000 in what seems to be a one off? Even if you know your stuff there is natural variance. You need a bit better bankroll management than that.

 

[IloveyouGibbs4]

Underrate Menzel at your own peril. I have put $500 on him to be an anytime goalscorer. In all likelihood, it's pretty much certain money. Peace out.

 

[John of all Johns]

Alright pps, below are my bets for this week so far, if proof is needed I will post photos.
Please feel free to comment on which you think will be green and which will be red.

• .5u Pies under 39.5/Fremantle half time/full time @ $3.75 - think my only issue is pies winning over 39
• .5u Bulldogs + 21.5 @ 1.90 Think Bulldogs are a chance to get close but might be hard as the general of Essendon is back (Goddard)
• .5u Bombers under 39.5 @ 2.05 Think if they win it won't be by much
• .5u Gold Coast +28.5 @ 1.80 IMO have a solid chance of beating NMFC.
• .5u Freo HT/FT @ 1.83 Think this is a gimme
• .5u Adelaide/Melb Under 172.5 @ 1.87 Can't see MFC kicking a high score and keeping Adelaide to a minimun.
• .5u Adelaide -44.5 @ 1.90 Think the margin could also be doubled.
• .5u Hawks/Saints over 180.5 @ 1.90 At the dome it could be a high scoring game, almost a flip of a coin. Just wanted to put interest in the game.
• 1u Pies HT/FT into Freo -13.5 @ 2.85 I like this bet.
• .5 Blues/Pies over 170.5 @ 2.15 Think the rain may stay away and come tomorrow morning. Could be a higher scoring match than the line indicates.
• .5u Pies -24.5 @1.90 Don't believe the blues have faced much opposition, with that being said they have fought to come back in a few games and confidence is a big thing in football, just don't think they have it to beat a quality side in the pies.

We have all thought alot this season and upsets have pumped us in the a$$, good luck to every one and hopefully we all end up in the positive.

 

[Willzzz]

Carlton back to back 6 day breaks + having players injuried during the last 2 games scares me from going too hard on them at the line/SU.

 

[Anzac16]

In all seriousness I expect it to be a tight match. If Carlton come out and play as they have in their last couple of games then it's going to be a riiper.

Am excited to see how we match up on Daisy.

I think the Collingwood 1-39 margin is good value. We haven't been able to completely put the nail in the coffin in our recent victories so all our wins have been within the 1-39 margin.

Collingwood wins:
Sydney - 20 pts
Richmond - 38 pts (just sneaked in)
North Melbourne - 35 pts
Essendon - 23 pts

I've also had some luck with winning margin, winning margin spread and super margin bets.

For instance, if you think that there's going to be an upset, let's say last weeks St.K vs. Brisbane match, Brisbane to win 1-9 was about 250% more value than them to win H2H, and roughly 125% more value at 1-19.

Even with the WC vs. Carlton game, if you would've went for a Carlton win 1-9 or 1-19 there would've been a much higher pay out for those margins.

Also, Adelaide 1-10 or 1-19 was very high value, or 1-39 to play it safe for these tight games.

For this week, those who are thinking of a Carlton upset over Collingwood, Carlton are $3.85 H2H or $4.40 for the 1-39, with a 40+ victory being very, very, very slim so I would go for the 1-39.

Carlton 1-24 @5.40
1-19 @6.20

Just some ideas.

Definitely think it will be closer than some people think tonight. Only problem I see right now is your midfield being superior to ours. Think Collingwood 1-39 is probably the right bet for tonight. We are a better chance than what the bookies are giving us, but I'm not convinced just yet. Wouldn't be surprised if we won tonight if I'm honest, maybe its just blind optimism.

 

[GROTTO]

• .5u Hawks/Saints over 180.5 @ 1.90 At the dome it could be a high scoring game, almost a flip of a coin. Just wanted to put interest in the game.

The game is at the MCG.

Dont feel bad, I have done this once or twice in the past.

 

[John of all Johns]

The game is at the MCG.

Dont feel bad, I have done this once or twice in the past.

haha well this betslip I might as well throw out. Thunderstorms and hail, can't see a big score happening but then again anything is possible in this funny game!
Thanks for the heads up.

 

[chrisdon16]

Underrate Menzel at your own peril. I have put $500 on him to be an anytime goalscorer. In all likelihood, it's pretty much certain money. Peace out.

I don't believe you put this bet on. Snap shot?

What if he snaps his leg at the opening bounce. Will he be a certain goal scorer?

 

[chrisdon16]

1. .5u Bulldogs + 21.5 @ 1.90 Think Bulldogs are a chance to get close but might be hard as the general of Essendon is back (Goddard)

2. .5u Bombers under 39.5 @ 2.05 Think if they win it won't be by much

3. .5 Blues/Pies over 170.5 @ 2.15 Think the rain may stay away and come tomorrow morning. Could be a higher scoring match than the line indicates.

1. Last 4 games between Essendon and bulldogs, Essendon have smashed them by an average of 54 points. Don't see bulldogs getting within 21 considering the last 4 plus Goddard and shocking back in. Plus Essendon will be fired up for not justa win, but a statement win. Bomber has said its a mini final

2. As above, the average of the last 4 has been 54 pts to Essendon. If anything, you should jump on something like Essendon 25 + or 40 +

3. I've already jumped all over this. Carlton's defence is deplorable. Thinking a scoring line of Collingwood 120-130 to cartlon 70-80

 

[Keystone agony]

Huh? We tagged the crap out of selwood last week, it's Kane's main job

He was barely near him. More h2h then a genuine tag

 

[chrisdon16]

Don't think the rain will affect tonight's scoring. Last 8 games have had an average game total of 189. Pies are up and about.
Collingwood and over 164.5 @ $2.50

 

[ricardogp]

Definitely think it will be closer than some people think tonight. Only problem I see right now is your midfield being superior to ours. Think Collingwood 1-39 is probably the right bet for tonight. We are a better chance than what the bookies are giving us, but I'm not convinced just yet. Wouldn't be surprised if we won tonight if I'm honest, maybe its just blind optimism.

I too think we won't lose by more than 40, but I'm struggling to find supporting evidence. I thought the same against Essendon and we lost by 11 goals. And Collingwood have since proven to be several goals better than that.

I would only throw a beer's worth on Carlton 1-24 because I'm a romantic...

Sent from my HTC One S using Tapatalk

 

[sneak]

3.5u on total points carl vs coll over 150.5 @1.36

 

[happy punter]

Pies -23.5 over Blues @ 1.92 (2 units)

 

[iluvparis]

Carlton v Collingwood
1 unit - Six-pack special @ $6 (LUX)

YTD: 0-1, - 1 unit