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AFL Round 11

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Ok I have gone through the DT markets for friday and saturday and these are my plays

1u Mcveight over frawly @ 2.12
Mcveigh has been going well since watson was injured so I put this match up slightly in his favour, so will take the odds

1u trengove over green @ 1.91
Hoping trengove is raring to go after his suspension, has had green covered for most of the year

2u hille over ryder @ 1.5
short odds but ryder has only won this once this year and up against melbournes injured ruck stocks

1u ling over stokes and giansiracusa @ 2.5
stokes a downhill skier, dont expect him to do so well in the wet, same with gia

1u lecras over shuey, rosa and brennan @ 3.5
expect him to kick a bag this week

1u rich over kennedy and mcglynn @ 2.5
clear average difference between these players, rich in decent form compared to the others

1u adcock over bolton and black @ 2.65
adcock winning the h2h against black, just hope bolton doesnt have one of his days

2u fisher over shaw @ 1.97
as has been said fisher dominates vs collingwood. I also dont expect the saints will let shaw run free

1u pendles over swan @ 1.9
swan has been poor and rumored to be carrying an injury.
 

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Kennedy paying $4 to the top goal scorer for the round looks good to me, Franklin is also $4 but the weather could be terrible in Melbourne this weekend and he has trouble kicking for goal at the best of times, West Coast are going to get it inside 50 often enough so Kennedy will get plenty of chances, reckon this round you might only need to kick 5 and that will be enough
 
Essendon/Essendon
Geelong/Geelong/Geelong/Geelong
Hawthorn/Hawthorn/Hawthorn/Hawthorn
Carlton/Carlton

@ $3.97

Think Melbourne could get the jump on the Bombers like Richmond did, but unlike the Tigers I don't think they'll be able to hold on. Can see this game going a bit like Carlton/Melbourne last week.
Carlton should easily beat Port, but Port are unpredictable (and at home) so it may not be until the 2nd quarter when they get on top.
Don't think the Bulldogs or Freo will get anywhere near Geelong or Hawthorn.

Having said all that I've had horrible form on my multis this season, so maybe go the opposite of all the above!
 
mike262 said:
Thoughts on Zaha beating heppel in DT at 2.12

With watson out is zaha getting more midfield time?
Click to expand...

Heppell is getting more midfield time actually. Zaka is pretty much playing the same role.
 
TheNextBigThing said:
Kennedy paying $4 to the top goal scorer for the round looks good to me, Franklin is also $4 but the weather could be terrible in Melbourne this weekend and he has trouble kicking for goal at the best of times, West Coast are going to get it inside 50 often enough so Kennedy will get plenty of chances, reckon this round you might only need to kick 5 and that will be enough
Click to expand...

No jack this round, Bock worries me there though. What price is LeCras in that market?
 
laam said:
Ok I have gone through the DT markets for friday and saturday and these are my plays

1u Mcveight over frawly @ 2.12
Mcveigh has been going well since watson was injured so I put this match up slightly in his favour, so will take the odds

1u trengove over green @ 1.91
Hoping trengove is raring to go after his suspension, has had green covered for most of the year

2u hille over ryder @ 1.5
short odds but ryder has only won this once this year and up against melbournes injured ruck stocks

1u ling over stokes and giansiracusa @ 2.5
stokes a downhill skier, dont expect him to do so well in the wet, same with gia

1u lecras over shuey, rosa and brennan @ 3.5
expect him to kick a bag this week

1u rich over kennedy and mcglynn @ 2.5
clear average difference between these players, rich in decent form compared to the others

1u adcock over bolton and black @ 2.65
adcock winning the h2h against black, just hope bolton doesnt have one of his days

2u fisher over shaw @ 1.97
as has been said fisher dominates vs collingwood. I also dont expect the saints will let shaw run free

1u pendles over swan @ 1.9
swan has been poor and rumored to be carrying an injury.
Click to expand...


Can I ask you what 1u is as i dont understand bfair? I take its more than 1 dollar, for eg how much do you win if pendles comes in over swan at 1u at 1.9?
 
1u is just short of 1 unit, just a way of comparing bets instead of using actual $$ figures.
for me 1u is my standard bet, 2u is pretty confident, and 4u means I'm very confident
 

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Ess v Melb

Most Disposals H2H (2) -
Sylvia $1.77
Jones $1.92

2u

Gee v WB

Most Disposals H2H (4) -
Enright $1.65
Ling $2.06

2u

Coll v St. k

Most Disposals H2H (1) -
Pendles $1.85
Swan $1.85

1u
 
Do Centrebet have a reason to fade the Swans this year?

By my count, tomorrow will be the fourth Friday Fill-Up involving inflated odds for Sydney. I can't remember if the first two were games they won, but last week was.
 

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.3 units Melbourne @ 4.80
1 unit Melbourne +27.5 @ 1.92
1 unit Sydney @ 2.00
2 units Geelong / Collingwood / Hawthorn @ 1.48
2 units West Coast more goals than behinds @ 1.57

Not touching the Adelaide vs North game, as tempting as it is. Good luck everyone.
 
Essendon: Half Time Line -14.5 $1.92
Geelong: Pick Your Own Line -29.5 $1.52
West Coast: Pick Your Own Line -59.5 $1.60
Collingwood: Half Time Line -15.5 $1.92

$25 @ 8.97
 

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AFL Round 11

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