AFL Round 14

[I Lost My Keays]

Richmond $5 vs Sydney $1.16
Port Adelaide $1.06 vs Western Bulldogs $8
Hawthorn $1.32 vs Collingwood $3.20
Gold Coast $2.63 vs Geelong $1.45
Essendon $1.88 vs Adelaide $1.88
Fremantle $1.05 vs Brisbane $ 9
St Kilda $7 vs West Coast $1.08
GWS $2.80 vs Carlton $1.40
Melbourne $3.20 vs North Melbourne $1.32

Value for money

Adelaide coming off a win over North , while Essendon lost to Melbourne. I'm going for Adelaide to win this due to Essendon losing Watson with a Hamstring injury and the ASADA ordeal.

GWS - Ever since that hiding from Richmond , GWS have been looking fairly decent. They have had Shane Mumford come back which is huge along side Davis. It's at GWS home stadium and Carlton are pretty poor travelling interstate. I think Patton and Cameron will overwhelm Rowe and Jamison.

Melbourne- Melbourne looked really good against Essendon , they fought really hard to grab the win from being down by 33 points. Melbourne players are stepping up such as Watts , Pedersen and Dunn. I feel Melbourne can shut down North's key players such as Thomas , Swallow and Ziebell. Melbourne is paying $3.20 and that's very good value so i'll be chucking $20 on them.


Personally I will be doing an outrageous bet
St Kilda , GWS and Melbourne H2H @ $62.72 haha

 

[Anzac16]

First thoughts for the week:

• Crows value against Essendon at the moment. Dons have been very average for weeks now and the Crows are in great form. Almost knocked of Carlton at the G earlier on in the year after playing a terrible first half and wasting a lot of chances. Worry is that the Dons might fire up after the loss today and play a blinder.
• Collingwood are definitely value against Hawthorn. As good as Hawthorn are, they can be beaten with these injuries at the moment. Think it will be a close game. Would prefer to take the Pies at the line if they slipped out closer to 5 goals.
• GWS could potentially beat us at home. We've actually been pretty good the last few weeks, but a tad worried about this game. We should beat them, but you never know what either team is going to serve up.
• Melbourne at the line would be my bet for that match. They've improved a lot. North play good footy every second week though, and if they want to be a top 4 team, they need to beat the Dees by 5+ Goals.

 

[Keystone agony]

Adelaide have only been good at home for a while but it doesnt matter who the dons are playing atm because whoever it is will always be in the game.

I feel north might be too good for the demons because they can kick a winning score - melbourne struggle to

 

[BROOMY]

Lock in freo/brisbane to have highest margin of the round. 100+ thrashing coming our way.

 

[ricardogp]

Early pre-team thoughts:

Port, Hawks, Freo should all be locks, but Hawthorn is the only value there.

Sydney, Geelong and Essendon are all close, and I'll be waiting for the teams. Could be some tasty <39.5 options there (all favs around $2.25)

I also think North will beat Melbourne and possibly cover the line. But with the low-scoring nature of Melbourne games I will probably stick to the H2H unless it comes in a bit.

Saints might be a little value and could cover the line - depends which team has a 4th quarter in them...

 

[banana_bus]

Saints might be a little value and could cover the line - depends which team has a 4th quarter in them...

This^^^^

 

[Keystone agony]

I dont feel the hawks are locks. Unless Pendles/Swan/Beams are out?

I agree with North Melbourne they have way too much fire power and scoreing power in the way they play for the demons to be able to beat the, - Melbourne still cant kick a score.

The problem i have with the saints is that opposition teams only need to kick 100-120 against them to win by 60-80 quite comfortably. The saints have no avenues to goal especially with N.Riewoldt struggling more and more every week. Hes a one man forward line at the moment.

The one i like is GC at home against Geelong. Everyone has got excited about the cats because they are the 'cats' and because they beat big side Stkilda at skilled stadium. Before that had been ordinary and gold coast look bloody hard to beat up at metricon stadium. I might wait because SJ back in for geelong minght push odds out further. Although having said that is a hard trip back from perth.

 

[TheKanga]

I think i'll be putting a little on St Kilda H2H and at the line.
West Coast aren't that good and it's at Etihad.

 

[Willzzz]

Have changed arrangements after a few poor weeks.

Will revert back to what I have done last year and will be posting my plays here and early in the week.

Thoughts; WB too many points, Coll a chance, can't see Geelong losing, Adelaide should win and NM should bounce back.

Have taken a few early bets but will wait till team lists to finalise them.

WCE could either destroy STK by 100+ or they could be taken all the way.

 

[Jay-Z]

Have changed arrangements after a few poor weeks.

Will revert back to what I have done last year and will be posting my plays here and early in the week.

Thoughts; WB too many points, Coll a chance, can't see Geelong losing, Adelaide should win and NM should bounce back.

Have taken a few early bets but will wait till team lists to finalise them.

WCE could either destroy STK by 100+ or they could be taken all the way.

Did you just back Kennedy overs in SC? I was about to get on and the price changed from 1.87 to 1.66 within a few seconds

 

[foxy_dal]

4 units Barlow over 104.5 SC @ $1.80

Averaged 110 last year and is at 105 this year after coming back slowly from an injury. Playing lions at home is about as good as it gets for fantasy points to mids as well.

 

[Willzzz]

Did you just back Kennedy overs in SC? I was about to get on and the price changed from 1.87 to 1.66 within a few seconds

Nah not me mate.

I've just taken the 0.2U - SC: Goddard < 110.5 @ $1.87

- Pretty sure either Laird/Kerridge will do a job on Goddard this week.
- Imagine the tags will go on Goddard & Zaharakis.

4 units Barlow over 104.5 SC @ $1.80

Averaged 110 last year and is at 105 this year after coming back slowly from an injury. Playing lions at home is about as good as it gets for fantasy points to mids as well.

Nice pick-up. Shame I didn't get to it earlier, into $1.60 now.

 

[banana_bus]

Ffs do sportsbet just wait for the first bets to come in and radically re-adjust their prices????

So annoying.

 

[Stretcher Boy]

Early multi of mine. Thoughts?

Sydney over 15.5
Port over 39.5
Hawks under 39.5
Geelong
Adelaide -3.5

$12.56

 

[Willzzz]

Thread has been very quiet this week.

Early multi of mine. Thoughts?

Sydney over 15.5
Port over 39.5
Hawks under 39.5
Geelong
Adelaide -3.5

$12.56

I like Sydney, Geelong, Adelaide.
Not sure about Port Over 39.5 or Hawks Under.

I'm not a big fan of playing multi's in general, I only ever take 2-3 favourites that I really like but don't want to pay too much juice on.
Even that has gotten me in trouble the last couple of weeks though.

I much prefer grinding my way to a profit as opposed to hitting a big multi once every 5 - 10 weeks though.

 

[tibor]

Friday night i'm liking Over 181.5 at Lux

 

[Jay-Z]

I'm not a big fan of playing multi's in general, I only ever take 2-3 favourites that I really like but don't want to pay too much juice on.
Even that has gotten me in trouble the last couple of weeks though.

I much prefer grinding my way to a profit as opposed to hitting a big multi once every 5 - 10 weeks though.

That's a good point Willzzz, I have only really got into betting on footy this year (dabbled in it last year but only bet on one game every couple of weeks kind of thing). This season started out well for me (when I was very selective with games I bet on) but when it turned and I stepped back to analyze why, I noticed a) I was betting on too many things and b) I was taking too many high-risk/high-return bets and was losing the majority of them.

I often get sucked into multi's because the favourites I like pay so little it's not worth betting on straight up, what do you so in these instances?

 

[Willzzz]

I often get sucked into multi's because the favourites I like pay so little it's not worth betting on straight up, what do you so in these instances?

There are a couple of things I do when I think a short-priced favourite is value.

1. Multi-Bet a couple of short favourites (2-3) up to get odds of ~$1.90
2. Take the favourite minus the line
3. Take Qtr by Qtr Leader, HT/FT Leader

Obviously which option I choose depends on the teams playing.

 

[Keystone agony]

Im gonna be struggling for bets and time this week. On holiday albeit in melbourne have written some notes down for players relating to DT however ive already missed a couple of good SC bets like barlow, kennedy ect

 

[Lensen]

I often get sucked into multi's because the favourites I like pay so little it's not worth betting on straight up, what do you so in these instances?

it seems an alien concept to many - but not bet?

 

[BloodRet]

Sydney over 15.5
Port 40+
Hawthorn 1-39
Adelaide 1-39

2u @ 11.86

 

[KardiniaPark]

it seems an alien concept to many - but not bet?

This guy/girl obviously works for one of those anti gambling places and is trying to infiltrate our forum. Not quite as clever as you think are you LENNY, if that's even your REAL NAME. #BanPlease

 

[Lensen]

This guy/girl obviously works for one of those anti gambling places and is trying to infiltrate our forum. Not quite as clever as you think are you LENNY, if that's even your REAL NAME. #BanPlease

my super fund has shares in tabcorp, so i encourage you to bet as much and as often as possible with the tab. preferably fixed odds #highmargins

 

[KardiniaPark]

my super fund has shares in tabcorp, so i encourage you to bet as much and as often as possible with the tab. preferably fixed odds #highmargins

We'll all be long dead before the bastards let us touch it anyway

 

[chrisdon16]

Hawthorn 1-39
Geelong 1-39
Freo 60+
Adelaide 1-39
Carlton 1-39
North 1-39

$10 @ $89