AFL Round 14

[Barnzy]

Had bets involving both Watson and Rioli. Both do hamstrings.

 

[sblack]

Hawthorn lazy this qtr.

 

[Borgsta]

Hawthorn lazy this qtr.

Just got there in the end

 

[The_Doctor]

Hawks by 100+ @ 21 (LIVE 3qtr time)

Hawks could run away with this against an injury depleted Essendon

 

[The_Doctor]

Adding Hawks -84.5 @ 5

 

[sblack]

Facepalm.

 

[Borgsta]

oh thats harsh a point at the end to lose the -4.5 2nd half.

 

[The Royal Sampler]

Taking Mitchell over Watson DT @ $1.67.

Was up by 20-odd when Watson strained his hamstring, won by 95 in the end.

 

[Amack]

A few from me for tomorrow.

Tipster: The Oracle
Event: Gold Coast V Western Bulldogs (GCS)
Date of Event: 25-06-2011
Time of Event: 14:10
Sport: AFL
Tip: RISCHITELLI, M (GC) to have more disposals than HIGGINS, S (WB)
Odds: $1.9
Units: 3
Sportsbook: Centrebet
Comments: He's averaging 2 more possesions per game and Higgins is always a chance of an injury

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tipster: The Oracle
Event: Gold Coast V Western Bulldogs (GCS)
Date of Event: 25-06-2011
Time of Event: 14:10
Sport: AFL
Tip: Tom Lynch to have more goals than Barry Hall
Odds: $3.5
Units: 3
Sportsbook: Centrebet
Comments: Bit of value here although if this one ugly Barry could smash this so it's only worth a nibble.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Tipster: The Oracle
Event: Sydney V Collingwood (ANZ)
Date of Event: 25-06-2011
Time of Event: 19:10
Sport: AFL
Tip: D Swan to have more goals than A Goodes
Odds: $2.5
Units: 10
Sportsbook: Centrebet
Comments: Swanny is averaging 1.6 goals per game and Goodes only 1.3. This could go either way but I think the value makes it worth going hard.

 

[half_back_flank]

If he changes roles he can make it up in 10 minutes.

Probably wouldn't have made much of a difference if he didn't tag tonight, Sewell tore strips off him and then Mitchell (or was it Lewis?) in the second half.

One tackle for the match hurts though, pretty pathetic really.

 

[flylikeaneagle]

Hawthorn -51.5 @ 1.88 (centrebet)

Essendon are absolutely woeful.

hear the bombers give up, up

 

[The Royal Sampler]

A few from me for tomorrow.

Tipster: The Oracle
Event: Gold Coast V Western Bulldogs (GCS)
Date of Event: 25-06-2011
Time of Event: 14:10
Sport: AFL
Tip: RISCHITELLI, M (GC) to have more disposals than HIGGINS, S (WB)
Odds: $1.9
Units: 3
Sportsbook: Centrebet
Comments: He's averaging 2 more possesions per game and Higgins is always a chance of an injury

Higgins has averaged 26.5 possessions these past two weeks since changing role, though. Danger, Will Robinson!

 

[twarby]

Higgins is a chance of an injury though

 

[flylikeaneagle]

Brisbane more behinds than goals @ 2.12 (centrebet)

Just a small one on this, due largely to the weather.

 

[The Royal Sampler]

Interestingly, Freo are one of the least accurate teams going around, I think they're 1 and 4 at home in terms of goals > behinds... but Brisbane allow 9 and 3 so I'm sitting the matchup out.

 

[flylikeaneagle]

Interestingly, Freo are one of the least accurate teams going around, I think they're 1 and 4 at home in terms of goals > behinds... but Brisbane allow 9 and 3 so I'm sitting the matchup out.

think it's a decent bet for freo as well, but odds are only 1.65, and no point in taking both teams.

 

[Resarenco]

sounds like all your other bets

look forward to your first loss

HAHAHA your so funny always saying negative things. The funniest part of of your comments is most of the time you just talk rubbish. Sounds like my other bets? what the hell yeah all the time i put money on bookies mistakes because they do that all the time HAHA I wish that was true !

you just jumped at the chance to say something negative dont you have anything positive or worthwhile to say.

 

[The Royal Sampler]

Twarby's rarely positive but almost always worthwhile.

 

[twarby]

HAHAHA your so funny always saying negative things. The funniest part of of your comments is most of the time you just talk rubbish. Sounds like my other bets? what the hell yeah all the time i put money on bookies mistakes because they do that all the time HAHA I wish that was true !

you just jumped at the chance to say something negative dont you have anything positive or worthwhile to say.

i could care less about your Melbourne bet, i was referring to your Nadal bet, when you said "oh well he should win but still an unnecessary risk."

all your bets fit into that category.


how stupid can you be to first post about playing a mistake on a forum, then go ahead and include it in a multi with $1.01 shot on betfair, if Nadal gets injured you're screwed

 

[denitofinito]

Adding some bets for tomorrow:

4u Melbourne H2H @ 1.92 - Really think Melbourne's midfield will eventually get on top with Jamar back in the team.
--
1.8u u Qtr by qtr Syd/Coll/coll/coll @ 11 - Sydney hopefully fired up, Pies off the bye. $11 massive overs for this.
--
1u @ 41.84:
Melbourne 15.5+
Collingwood 39.5+
Geelong 39.5+
Carlton 1-39
Bulldogs 39.5+
--
1u @ 19.45:
Melbourne H2H
Dogs -35.5
Collingwood 25+
Fremantle 25+
Geelong 25+
Carlton H2H
North H2H 1.53
--
DreamTeam bets:
1.8u Scully > Trengove @ 1.82
2u Deledio > Moloney @ 1.95
1.2u Sidebottom > Jack @ 1.82
1.8u Ball > Bolton @ 1.80
1.8u Redden > Fyfe/Rockliff/Black @ 2.90

 

[The Royal Sampler]

Thoughts on Duffield vs. Rich for DT points on Centrebet?

I like Duffield and can see the Lions getting belted, but his output has been a bit hit or miss as his role varies. I'd be hoping that Rich struggles in the midfield with Sandi directing the ball to the Freo mids... and he's been tagged 4 of the past 6 games, I don't know if Freo would go with that tactic when there's Black and Power to consider.

 

[twarby]

Thoughts on Duffield vs. Rich for DT points on Centrebet?

I like Duffield and can see the Lions getting belted, but his output has been a bit hit or miss as his role varies. I'd be hoping that Rich struggles in the midfield with Sandi directing the ball to the Freo mids... and he's been tagged 4 of the past 6 games, I don't know if Freo would go with that tactic when there's Black and Power to consider.

i hate betting on Freo players for fantasy, they chop and change their team way too much, Rich actually has a good record against Freo in his 3 matches.

 

[The Royal Sampler]

Hmmmm, well he is from W.A. You're right about Freo chopping and changing too.

 

[denitofinito]

With one of the longest injury lists in the comp, Freo have no choice but to chop and change. Makes it very hard to read their form line and fantasy bets.

 

[Athomas]

Getting in before Centrebet as judging from their first goal scorer markets they aren't going to best this price which is large overs:

0.5 units Bruest most goals tomorrow night @ $15

2u - Hawthorn -14.5 @ 2.10
0.6u - Hawks 40+ @ 4.55

0.3u - Savage Most Goals @ 12

0.2u - Davey FGS @ 67
0.3u - Bruest FGS @ 21
0.3u - Savage FGS @ 21

1.1u - Hawthorn x Dogs -38.0 x Carlton @ 3.74
1u - Hawthorn x Syd +40.5 x Bull -17.5 x Freo -15.5 @ 5
0.3u - Hawks -18.5 x Melb U40 x Dogs -23.5 x Sydney +50.5 x Freo -17.5 x Geel -15.5 x Carl -15.5 @ 30

1u - Hawks to outscore Roos @ 2.8

Go Hawks! Still think they are value (would have preferred Murphy over Cheney but oh well). GL all.