AFL Round 15

[Keystone agony]

I see quite a bit of value in the under dogs this week.

Off Sportsbet

Geel 1.33
Dons 3.30

Hawks 1.21
GCS 4.30

Stk 5.60
Rich 1.13

Freo 1.27
WCE 3.75

Bris 5.40
North 1.14

Sydney 1.12
GWS 6.00

WBD 1.68
Melb 2.15

Adel 3.10
Port 1.36

Coll 1.23
Carl 4.00

Geel vs Dons
I hope its not my bias getting in my way. But Geelong have been very ordinary for quite some time now away from Skilled Stadium. I watched the bombers first hand last week move the ball very well at ES. I personally dont think the bombers can kick a winning score so will fall just short and i think NO WATSON will be highlighted at its most when Selwood/SJ competitiveness when the game is on the line will be way too good around the pill over Goddard, Heppell, Myers ect. Geelong have been very average for a good 10 weeks now only standing up at SS against sides such as North and Stkilda really since. Chapman should be back in and Stokes will likely not play.

Still think dons are the value. Get on 1-39 is what i like.

Hawks vs GC
This game i really like the hawks and by a fair margin. Will be high scoring. Hawks killed GC and made them look like minnows back in round 4. I think the hawks cover the line and win comfortably. I dont think beating Geelong at home is that much of a big deal as can be seen above. GC have been horrible away from home got smashed for 3 qtrs vs WCE, Adealide belted them in Adelaide and the hawks will do the same if switched on. GC have had a tough little run of travelling and finally it will take its toll. Hawks comfortably.

Stk vs Rich
This is a tough game to read for me as most Richmond games are. I think they are way to short at 1.13 for how they are going this year even though they played ripping footy vs the swans. They should win on the basis the saints cant kick a winning score, however how much is anyones guess. Could be from 10-80 IMO. I think the saints are value and could be good at the line, Richmond could come out complacent IMO thinking they performed well last week.

Freo vs WCE
Another tough game for me. I have this feeling freo get it done easily however i also feel if Mcpharlin/Johnson cant play then the tall eagle forwards could kick enough of a score to trouble a low scoreing fremantle side in a low scoring game. They have the line right IMO i think freo should win and win pretty well. Maybe 1-39 for freo.

Brisbane vs North
Brisbane have been deplorable for the last 2 weeks now getting smashed by GWS and Freo. They cant kick a score and North smashed them earlier. North have played well away this year but id being over played a little. I have a feeling North could come out a little sluggish and slow. However Brisbane just dont have the firepower to trouble them at the end of the day. North like Richmond are bloody hard to read. North anywhere from 15-80 IMO.

Port vs Adelaide
Think Port will just be way too good. I expect Adelaide to be right in it for the first half then Port to run away with it in characteristic port fashion. I like Adel/Port HT/FT maybe. Port in the end should cover the 19.5 line IMO. 1.36 for the win is good IMO.

Coll vs Carl
I think Carlton are the value again. They seem to be getting themselves up for the big games in Victoria but not the away games against poor sides. Yes i tipped GWS to beat them. Whens Ben Reid and Maxwell back is the concern? Like Carlton at the +23.5 line wouldve preferred them closer to 30.

WBD vs Melb
I really like Mlebourne and for value ill be hitting them 1-39 hard. Think they are slightly better than they were last time they met. No Griffen and Cooney leaves a hole and will mean hard tags for some other mids really opening them up through the guts IMO.

 

[Keystone agony]

So my early bets

0.5U Ess SU @3.50 (Money back Sportsbet special)
0.5U Ess 1-39 @3.90 (IAS)
0.5U Ess +21.5 @1.91 (Bet365)
0.2U Carlisle >2.5 goals @6.80
1U Goddard <117.5 DT @1.87
1U Bartel <100.5 DT @1.87
0.5U Heppell 26+ disposals @1.76
0.4U Heppell >29.5 disposals @2.60
0.2U Heppell >34.5 disposals @8.50

1U Hawks -31.5 @1.91 (Bet365)
0.5U TML >194.5 @1.91 (Bet365)
0.5U TML >186.5 @1.88 (IAS)
0.5U TML >182.5 @1.88 (Sportsbet)
1U TML > 178.5 @1.88 (Sportsbet)
0.25 U Breust > 2.5 goals @2.40 (sportsbet)
1U Shiels Dt <102.5 @1.87 (TAB)

2U (Multi): Hawks, Port, North SU @1.87 (IAS)

1.5U Melb 1-39 @2.75 (IAS)
1U Melb SU @2.30 (Sportsbet money back special)

 

[banana_bus]

Cats/Hawks/Freo multi looks good.

West Coast still haven't beaten anyone and the other 2 should be too good.

 

[Zealbee]

Sportsbet are offering money back on all games if your team leads at any quarter time break but lose the game. Given you guys seem to fancy some of the udnerdogs might be a good idea?

 

[banana_bus]

Sportsbet are offering money back on all games if your team leads at any quarter time break but lose the game. Given you guys seem to fancy some of the udnerdogs might be a good idea?

Bombers.

 

[Willzzz]

Liking the Bombers too.

1U - Essendon Bombers +21.5 @ $1.90 (Betstar)
0.8U - Essendon Bombers +22.5 @ $1.92 (Sportsbet/IASbet)
$100 - Essendon Bombers SU @ $3.50 (Sportsbet w/ Refund Promo)

 

[Keystone agony]

Sportsbet are offering money back on all games if your team leads at any quarter time break but lose the game. Given you guys seem to fancy some of the udnerdogs might be a good idea?

Bombers and Adelaide ring well for this bet i reckon

 

[Keystone agony]

Cats/Hawks/Freo multi looks good.

West Coast still haven't beaten anyone and the other 2 should be too good.

Surely since Geelong beat Hawks in an upset they have been ordinary especially away from sleepy hollow.

Since:
Lost to Port by 40 points
Won over Richmond by 5 points
Lost to Freo by 30 points
Won over North by 20 points (@Skilled Stadium)
Lost to Sydney by 110 points
Won over Carlton by 5 points (shouldnt have won that game)
Won over Stkilda by 96 points (@skilled stadium)
Lost to GC by 40 points

They have been smashed by Freo, GCS, Syd and Port recently and stumbled over the line against Carlton and Richmond when the tigs were out of form.

I also have a worry on what NicNat, Darling, Mcgovern, Kennedy can do on a dry deck against Dawson, Silvagni, Ibbotson ect

 

[KardiniaPark]

Yeah Essendon's a good price, all good points made by Keystone agony. But I am more staggered at Melbourne not being closer to $1.50, surely they just win.

 

[Keystone agony]

Yeah Essendon's a good price, all good points made by Keystone agony. But I am more staggered at Melbourne not being closer to $1.50, surely they just win.

Yeh agree. Im tipping them as i think they will win and im also loading on 1-39. I think the bookies have the buldogs win against pies entrenched into their minds

 

[Bic]

My biggest bet of the year on Freo at the line this week.

-23.5 only going to go up...

 

[laam]

My biggest bet of the year on Freo at the line this week.

-23.5 only going to go up...

agree, just put 4u freo -23.5 @ 1.91
also 2u essendon @ 3.5 with sportsbet refund, may hedge out later for no risk

 

[KardiniaPark]

Yeh agree. Im tipping them as i think they will win and im also loading on 1-39. I think the bookies have the buldogs win against pies entrenched into their minds

I wouldn't be touching the margin, I think they represent enough value at the h2h and certainly at the line with a goal...ish start I assume.

 

[TheKanga]

I like Saints & Demons with the Sportsbet promo

 

[balmainforever]

They have been smashed by Freo, GCS, Syd and Port recently and stumbled over the line against Carlton and Richmond when the tigs were out of form.

Strange how you think that a team that's 3-9 and only beaten GWS in its last 8 games can be considered in form???

 

[banana_bus]

All well and good pointing out Geelong's poor recent run, but the Bombers aren't exactly world beaters either.

Chappy factor?

 

[TheKanga]

Melbourne H2H - 4u @ 2.30 (sportsbet)

No Gia, Cooney & Griffen for the dogs who are their best players and were the difference back in round 8
All these players kicked a goal each, Cooney had 25 disposals & Griffen had 20.
Melbourne also lead at 3 qtr time last time.
Only worry is they will need to fix up their foot skills, kept turning it over vs. North.
Also the fact that it's at Etihad where Melbourne haven't won since 2006.

 

[TheKanga]

All well and good pointing out Geelong's poor recent run, but the Bombers aren't exactly world beaters either.

Chappy factor?

I think Geelong will win.
The class of Selwood, Bartel & SJ will be to much.

 

[Zealbee]

5U Melbourne v Bulldogs @ 2.30 (Sportsbet)

Have lowered what a betting unit is for me this week after not doing that well on the World Cup in the past few days. Melbourne represent good value at this price and with the promo I am hopeful they can at the very least lead at a quarter time break and guarantee my money.

 

[foxy_dal]

2 units Selwood over 109.5 SC @ $1.80
Gee these come in quick. Averages 116 and covered 7/13 (not great I guess). Has not averaged below 111 in last 5 years and is usually around the 116 average he currently has. If he avoids a tag and Cats win he is pretty likely to go over here.

 

[Zealbee]

2 units Selwood over 109.5 SC @ $1.80
Gee these come in quick. Averages 116 and covered 7/13 (not great I guess). Has not averaged below 111 in last 5 years and is usually around the 116 average he currently has. If he avoids a tag and Cats win he is pretty likely to go over here.

Where did you find that bet?

 

[foxy_dal]

Where did you find that bet?

Sportsbet is the only site with Supercoach lines and H2H as far as I know.

 

[Keystone agony]

2U Boak <108.5 SC @1.75 (IAS)
Will cop the hard Kerridge tag. Did in round 2 and should again. Kerridge has been out of form recently but should still start on him. Along with this Boak is only avg 102.7 this year and has gone below 6/11 times.
0.5U Boak <99.5 DT @1.87

2U Malceski <103.5 SC @1.70 (IAS)
Has only avg his best of really 90 in his past years and been at 70's for sometime. Having a best season at 103 avg this year it seems a high line. Along with this he will get the Palmer defensive HFF tag which should stifle his scoring. Has gone below 7/12 times this year.
1U Mcveigh over Malceski DT @1.75 (IAS)

1U Sidebottom <104.5 SC @1.85 (IAS)
Has gone below 50% of the time so not great odds. However he copped the Everitt tag on a wing last time they met and i expect the same to continue this week. Everitt kept Sidebottom to 90 SC earlier this year.

1U N.Jones <109.5 SC @1.75 (IAS)
Has only avg 90 and 97 in the past 2 years. Having a break out season avg 110 this year. Copped the Picken tag last time when the dogs won however i think Wallis might get first crack this time so i havnt gone as big. Maybe even go less with this bet. Picken ept him to just 90 sc earlier this year.
2U Boyd over N.Jones DT @1.70 (IAS)
Read above and Boyd avgs 2-3 more this year and in the past has been the far superior dreamteamer

1U Kornes over Wines DT @1.75
Kornes avg about 4-5 more this year and Wines albeit very good last week has been scoreing around the 80-90 mark and Kornes went 136 in his last game vs Adel.

0.9U Martin over Cotchin @1.80
Cotchin usually gets the tag from saints an guys like Weller/C.Jones have been tagging hard and fairly well i expect them to contain someone fairly well and i reckon that will be Cotchin. If not and the tag doesnt go to Martin then he should be capable with his form of scoring more anyway.

1U Steven >25.5 disposals @1.87
Richmond tend not to tag which should benefit Steven who when not tagged this year has always
basically gone over.
1U Steven >85.5 DT @1.87

1U Goddard <117.5 DT @1.87

1U K.Jack <102.5 DT @1.87

1U Bartel <100.5 DT @1.87

 

[Keystone agony]

2 units Selwood over 109.5 SC @ $1.80
Gee these come in quick. Averages 116 and covered 7/13 (not great I guess). Has not averaged below 111 in last 5 years and is usually around the 116 average he currently has. If he avoids a tag and Cats win he is pretty likely to go over here.

Im not going to tail. Hocking usually gets the job on Selwood and he isnt in good form of recent. However its hard to go against you.

 

[Keystone agony]

Strange how you think that a team that's 3-9 and only beaten GWS in its last 8 games can be considered in form???

Huh?

All well and good pointing out Geelong's poor recent run, but the Bombers aren't exactly world beaters either.

Chappy factor?

Im starting to lean towards Geelong but still think the dons represented value at the time. Purely for the reason Hibberd, Watson, Carlisle and Winderlich will all be missing which is quite a big hole of quality in the side.