Afl Round 16

[The Royal Sampler]

Edit: thats just for the lowest and highest scoring teams of the week. Sportingbet dont offer unders/overs if i recall correctly.

I looked on Sportingbet last weekend and couldn't find it, so I'm guessing that's accurate. It was within 30mins of gametime too.

 

[Barnzy]

And is it really value taking the Saints 1-39 @ 2.10 when you can take them H2H @ 1.75 ???

Yeah. That's an extra 35 cents to the dollar. No way will the Saints by 40+ points.

 

[Barnzy]

I looked on Sportingbet last weekend and couldn't find it, so I'm guessing that's accurate. It was within 30mins of gametime too.

Hmm, that's odd. They have a lot of other choices. Aren't they renoun for having a wide variety? I haven't tried other sites. I guess it's not the end of the world.

^^

Also, thanks above posts. I'll look under "exotics" later in the week for losest scorer of the round.

 

[Lakey91]

Collingwoods last 3 scores against the saints are 41, 52 and 40 so Id agree that the lowest score of the round is worth a small flutter.

 

[StringyDog]

Sydney are bet of the week, will be able to shut down the space that carlton smalls rely on.

 

[Lensen]

I looked at the draw and figured it'd be a pretty straight forward week - then did the research and plugged in my odds and came up with my biggest punting week since I started this staking method

I rate the Crows as better than 25% chances so I'm taking the odds on offer. The Cats are looking a little shaky (for Geelong anyway) and the Crows are on a roll at home. $10 on Adelaide @ $4

Can't believe the Hawks aren't $1.10. The Lions are NO good without JB. Hawks will pulverise them. $40 on Hawthorn @ $1.28

Essendon/West Coast will be a terrible game of football, of that there is nothing surer. But the Dons are either going to get rolled - which given the rumbling re players v Knights isn't impossible - or fire up and smash them. I like a bit of the Eagles at the odds. $10 on West Coast @ $3.101

Form going into the game points to a big Dogs victory in Darwin, but I reckon Port are overs. No Hall means the Dogs will structure up differently to any point this year, whilst there is also the first game as coach thing. $10 on Port Adelaide @ $6.13

Carlton are looking all over the shop and don't deserve to be as strong a favourite as they are vs Sydney. Third game in a row at the Dome will mean tired legs late. $10 on Sydney @ $2.47

Not sure why Richmond are favourites - I don't have North as heavy favourites or anything but they've only beaten some pretty ordinary sides, Freo not withstanding (with the jury out on whether they're any good without Barlow and half their backline). I like the Thompson v Riewoldt matchup from a North perspective and think they'll bounce back strongly. $20 on North Melbourne @ $2.092

And Freo are a ditto to Hawthorn. Should be $1.10. $40 on Freo @ $1.2375

 

[rossi]

Sportingbet don't offer over/unders. I wish they would and I think it's about the only market they don't have. I do my over/unders on sportsbet.

 

[adii_7]

under 150 @ tab for pies game @ 3.25

 

[GoodesStuff]

under 150 @ tab for pies game @ 3.25

Hells yeah

 

[adii_7]

Hells yeah

you thinking of going big ?

im considering it.. it wont be 3.25 mid friday

 

[GoodesStuff]

you thinking of going big ?

im considering it.. it wont be 3.25 mid friday

Yeh you would think it would be into around 2.50 by Friday, but it all depends on the over/under line. It might be worth waiting for that to come out and go a little harder. If the under 150 is set at 3.25 then you would have to think the over/under line will be around 166.5. The unders @ 1.90 would be the bet of the round for mine if it was anywhere near this high.

 

[GoodesStuff]

^^ Oh and I noticed the TAB have the lowest scoring team of the round open. They have opened Collingwood @ 9.00! Hopefully sportsbet give around the same odds for the pies so I can potentially make $100 out of this

 

[94_Eagles]

Surely Sydney v Blues at about $2.40 deserves to be loaded up on massively?

 

[GoodesStuff]

Surely Sydney v Blues at about $2.40 deserves to be loaded up on massively?

I thought the exact same thing when we played Richmond 2 weeks ago

 

[Coach Bombay]

At this point thinking about going:

PYOL - Geelong -11.5// Hawthorn -11.5// Dogs -11.5 @ 2.90

 

[the_big_sav]

ive gone

geel over 15.5 @ 1.64
stk under 39.5 @ 2.25
hawks over 15.5 @ 1.57
hawks over 24.5 @ 1.95
bull over 15.5 @ 1.45
nth under 39.5 @ 2.60
freo over 15.5 @ 1.38
freo over 24.5 @ 1.80

and ill prob put something on collingwood lowest score on friday.

 

[94_Eagles]

I thought the exact same thing when we played Richmond 2 weeks ago

Richmond are on a tear, Carlton not so much. I wouldn't compare those two situations. Plus Sydney were very close to winning that game.

 

[GoodesStuff]

Havent really looked closely at low scoring team in the past so I could be way off...

But is $7.00-$8.00 for Pies lowest score of round sound about right?

$8 @ Centrebet
$9 @ TAB
^ Waiting for sportsbet's odds to come out though...

Also very interested in the total match points. As Ive previously mentioned, I will either be taking the under 150 or the under at the line, depending on what has the better value.

 

[94_Eagles]

At this point thinking about going:

PYOL - Geelong -11.5// Hawthorn -11.5// Dogs -11.5 @ 2.90

Carles Puyol?

 

[GoodesStuff]

Carles Puyol?

lol nah, PYOL = Pick your own line. On centrebet

 

[KardiniaPark]

^^ Oh and I noticed the TAB have the lowest scoring team of the round open. They have opened Collingwood @ 9.00! Hopefully sportsbet give around the same odds for the pies so I can potentially make $100 out of this

Yeah you were right!. Cant believe they are $9. Im getting on NOW>

and on the under 150 @ $3.25.

 

[GoodesStuff]

Yeah you were right!. Cant believe they are $9. Im getting on NOW>

and on the under 150 @ $3.25.

Yep, will probably take the $3.25 for under 150. Even though it is a little more risky than taking the under at the line, you are getting much better odds. Im sure ST.Kilda will be able to flood the MCG better than the dome also and restrict the pies to 6 goals. And of course, no Cloke for Collingwood- which for the lowest score of the round makes them very tasty

 

[happy_punter]

Geelong 25+ @2.00

Hawks 25+ @2.00

Bulldogs 25+ @1.60

Dockers 25+ @1.80

Tigers 1-39 @2.40

Carlton H2H @1.60

Essendon H2H @1.42

Saints -8.5 @2.00

 

[Lakey91]

Thorton, Houlihan and OHailpin out for Carlton makes me like Swans 1-39.

Welsh, Jetta and Dyson out for Essendon and Hurn in for Weagles is interesting too.

 

[dUkezz]

j brown wonder what hes paying for most goals of the round... will play closer to goals and loves playing the hawks, last time v hawks at aurora kicked a big matchwinning bag if i recall correctly