AFL Round 17

[BloodRet]

Fair enough, you could be right
However they did just concede 150pts to Carlton & will be missing their best young midfielder.
If Riewoldt doesn't fire they struggle to score.

I haven't had much luck betting with North so they probably will give them a hiding. I back them, they lose, I go against them, they win. The hot/cold side in the AFL.

 

[TheKanga]

I haven't had much luck betting with North so they probably will give them a hiding. I back them, they lose, I go against them, they win. The hot/cold side in the AFL.

Tell me about it, very frustrating as a supporter.
That Brisbane loss was shit, it was Browny's farewell game though and we have a poor record at the Gabba.
If the team comes out with right attitude and intensity they should belt St Kilda.

Good luck

 

[Keystone agony]

I think North smash them now. Unless heavy rain but even then they struggle even more to score

 

[alex mcanulty]

3U on multi
St Kilda +59.5
West Coast -13.5
Port Adelaide -11.5

@ 6.97

tailing again chief

 

[TheKanga]

I think North smash them now. Unless heavy rain but even then they struggle even more to score

Forecast not expecting rain at this stage, it's gonna be cold though!


My thoughts for the weekend

- Might jump on Hawks H2H, as Keystone said they just can't drop this one.
- Thinking Carlton could be competitive against the Swans, might take a small punt on them H2H and at the line.
- Bulldogs are value H2H against the Suns
- Port Adelaide at the line and the 3qtr line another poster mentioned, will be tailing that.
- Collingwood at the line, no Goddard is a big out for the Dons

 

[Willzzz]

[QUOTE="TheKanga, post: 33957266, member: 120538"
- Might jump on Hawks H2H, as Keystone said they just can't drop this one.[/QUOTE]

Love your work KA and I'm sure a lot of people here appreciate the time & effort you put in.

The one thing I will say is that there is no such thing as a team not being able to drop one.
That is where punters go wrong.
No such thing as certainties in AFL.

Having said that I like the Hawks as well this week. Won't be big though.

 

[Big Fozza]

[QUOTE="TheKanga, post: 33957266, member: 120538"
- Might jump on Hawks H2H, as Keystone said they just can't drop this one.

Love your work KA and I'm sure a lot of people here appreciate the time & effort you put in.

The one thing I will say is that there is no such thing as a team not being able to drop one.
That is where punters go wrong.
No such thing as certainties in AFL.

Having said that I like the Hawks as well this week. Won't be big though.[/QUOTE]
yeah i'm starting to have doubts on my hawks h2h bet (sportsbet) actually

 

[alex mcanulty]

Make sure you don't put extra unit than you usally would this weekend with the sportsbet promotion. The promotion all ways supports the bookie in my opion. That's my 2 cents haha

 

[Redacted Boner]

Love your work KA and I'm sure a lot of people here appreciate the time & effort you put in.

The one thing I will say is that there is no such thing as a team not being able to drop one.
That is where punters go wrong.
No such thing as certainties in AFL.

Having said that I like the Hawks as well this week. Won't be big though.
yeah i'm starting to have doubts on my hawks h2h bet (sportsbet) actually

No certainties in any sport really, yeah the bookies are mostly correct with the 1.01 - 1.10 faves but things can go **** up for the best of athletes/teams on any given day, and most likely the one where you go large/all in.

Hawks with an extra day recovery and Adelaide back off a trip to GWS, don't think the travel factors in much. Hawks have played at AO against Port so will be familiar with the ground and noise. Without Lake, Cyril and on their current form not really confident about backing them interstate. They could choke.

If it's going to be a cold wet night I'd prefer to get on the under, if it's around 180-190 points.

 

[Jugada]

Hawthorn H2H is the bet of the week. What have they done wrong to be so close in the market with a team battling to make finals? They lost to North Melbourne but North have made a lot of good teams look very average this year

$1.70 is the sort of odds I expect to see them against a side in the top 4, not Adelaide

 

[banana_bus]

Hawthorn H2H is the bet of the week. What have they done wrong to be so close in the market with a team battling to make finals? They lost to North Melbourne but North have made a lot of good teams look very average this year

$1.70 is the sort of odds I expect to see them against a side in the top 4, not Adelaide

Adelaide have been playing well at Adelaide Oval of late, they beat Port there (who beat Hawthorn there only a few weeks earlier).

Hawks haven't really done much wrong, but at the same time haven't been impressive... they just do what they do. Did the same thing last year and won the flag.

 

[d3ft]

Hawthorn H2H is the bet of the week. What have they done wrong to be so close in the market with a team battling to make finals? They lost to North Melbourne but North have made a lot of good teams look very average this year

$1.70 is the sort of odds I expect to see them against a side in the top 4, not Adelaide

Totally agree. Too much being made of their current injuries. They've been playing with half a squad the whole season and it hasn't bothered them. I'd take Sam Mitchell ahead of 3 Cyril Riolis.

 

[Spitter9]

hawks wont lose 2 in a row

hawks and port H2H on the sportsbet promotion are my two favourites

 

[Zealbee]

Make sure you don't put extra unit than you usally would this weekend with the sportsbet promotion. The promotion all ways supports the bookie in my opion. That's my 2 cents haha

Why not? Clearly different circumstances this week. They are offering teams at +20 for H2H prices.

 

[Keystone agony]

The only worry foe the hawks is now their tall defenders up against Walker, Jenkins and Pods. However Lake got 5 kicked on him last week and none of them are exactly huge power forwards and I think Schoenmakers, Stratton, Litherland and Birchall will take care of them and actually suit playing on these types more.

Hawks will smash them around the footy so it doesnt really matter.

 

[Zealbee]

Richmonds recent 3rd qtrs;

Bris +2
StK -6
Syd -13
Freo -25
NM -44
Ess -12
GWS +30
Mel -9

If you can be bothered can you show Port's recent 3rd quarters?

 

[ricardogp]

The only worry foe the hawks is now their tall defenders up against Walker, Jenkins and Pods. However Lake got 5 kicked on him last week and none of them are exactly huge power forwards and I think Schoenmakers, Stratton, Litherland and Birchall will take care of them and actually suit playing on these types more.

Hawks will smash them around the footy so it doesnt really matter.

Hope this is true. I got on the Hawks H2H before Lake was rubbed out. However with no Lake and Rioli, and playing at Adelaide Oval where Adelaide have won the last 4/5 probably justifies the $1.70 tag.

What is the latest on Dangerfield? Are Adelaide at full strength?

 

[Sketi]

Don't get the love for West Coast, Lions often spring upsets at the Gabba (including against WCE in 2012). I try to avoid backing average teams especially away - spells danger signs for me, plus 1.45 isn't great compared to what Hawks and Port are offering. That said with the sportsbet offer could be worth a punt as it's likely to go to the wire if the Lions are to win.

1.70 for the Hawks very, very tempting with the sportsbet special, ditto Port.

 

[Keystone agony]

Don't get the love for West Coast, Lions often spring upsets at the Gabba (including against WCE in 2012). I try to avoid backing average teams especially away - spells danger signs for me, plus 1.45 isn't great compared to what Hawks and Port are offering. That said with the sportsbet offer could be worth a punt as it's likely to go to the wire if the Lions are to win.

1.70 for the Hawks very, very tempting with the sportsbet special, ditto Port.

I think they are missing Rockliff, Redden, S.Black, Moloney, Leuneberger and Rich through the midfield compares to last time they played them last year.

You basically look at this side for good players and its hard to go past them only havong Hanley really and Patful as a solid/quality defender.

There midfield will likely be S.Martin ruck with Beams, Zorko, Lester, Hanley and Aish.

Its hard for me to see that troubling NicNat, Cox, Shuey, Priddis, Wellingham, Masten, Gaff ect

 

[Sketi]

I think they are missing Rockliff, Redden, S.Black, Moloney, Leuneberger and Rich through the midfield compares to last time they played them last year.

How many changes from the team that beat North Melbourne 2 weeks ago?

Its hard for me to see that troubling NicNat, Cox, Shuey, Priddis, Wellingham, Masten, Gaff ect

Such an overrated group.... they are an average team.

Agree with most of your thoughts in the OP though.

 

[Keystone agony]

How many changes from the team that beat North Melbourne 2 weeks ago?


Such an overrated group.... they are an average team.

Agree with most of your thoughts in the OP though.

I dont rate west coast either. Im saying all you have to be is an average team to beat brisbane. Richmond are an average team they did it.

Brisbane are missing Rockliff and Redden from that North game. There 2 best players. Zorko also has an injury cloud. Eagles need to tag Hanley whether that happens or not as eagles usually dont tag.

The reason I also like the eagles is purely because of that promo. Unless the eagles are throwing in the towel which I cant see with there being a new coach with something to prove than I cant see brisbane winning by 20 or more. At best I can see them struggling over the line.

Its an over rated group that love to run downhill against weak sides.

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

Liking

Melbourne v Geelong -15.5
Brisbane v West Coast -15.5
Port Adelaide -15.5
Hawthorn v Adelaide +20.5

@6.94

 

[Sketi]

The reason I also like the eagles is purely because of that promo. Unless the eagles are throwing in the towel which I cant see with there being a new coach with something to prove than I cant see brisbane winning by 20 or more. At best I can see them struggling over the line.

Yeah I agree with that. Guess I have just been burnt a couple of times this year backing against Brisbane at the Gabba, but their upset wins there are generally nail biters so the promo works well.

 

[checkraiseulite]

The reason I also like the eagles is purely because of that promo. Unless the eagles are throwing in the towel which I cant see with there being a new coach with something to prove than I cant see brisbane winning by 20 or more. At best I can see them struggling over the line.

is "the market" for the promo the individual games? or does it only apply to your first rnd 17 h2h bet?

 

[Redacted Boner]

is "the market" for the promo the individual games? or does it only apply to your first rnd 17 h2h bet?

1. The Refund Offer applies only to head to head bets placed over the Internet or on m.sportsbet.com.au or any sportsbet.com.au mobile app. The Offer applies to all matches scheduled for Round 17 of the 2014 AFL season. Only the 1st bet placed on the Head to Head market of that match will be deemed eligible for the Offer.

All games, surprisingly. It's usually just for first bet of the round.