AFL Round 17

[stewie griffen]

How does Adelaide -20.5 guarantee anything? If Adelaide win by less than 20, then the hawks bet would be refunded, but your Adelaide -20.5 bet loses. Only a Hawks win, or Adelaide by 21 or more wins with those bets.

Adelaide 1-19 as the third bet covers it. 2

 

[Keystone agony]

How does Adelaide -20.5 guarantee anything? If Adelaide win by less than 20, then the hawks bet would be refunded, but your Adelaide -20.5 bet loses. Only a Hawks win, or Adelaide by 21 or more wins with those bets.

Id do 1-20 obviously aswell.

 

[Keystone agony]

What bets are you placing for this guaranteed win?

Just on the Bulldogs v GCS match - The past three games played at this venue involving these two teams the total match score has been 155, 178 and 97. Given the Bulldogs are a low-scoring team, and conditions should br humid up in Cairns the line of 175.5 for the total match score looks a bit high to me.

3u Total Match Points UNDER 175.5 @ $1.88 (sportsbet)

Check page 4 where my bets are

 

[Jugada]

Id do 1-20 obviously aswell.

Whats the point of backing them 1-20 and 20+? You would get better odds just backing them straight out

 

[Thedeftouch]

Matchbook is the nuts, would be nice if it had more AFL action though guys

 

[iluvparis]

So Carlton have sent me an email saying Sportingbet are offering Carlton supportsers $5 on Judd+Murphy getting 50+ touches - is that value?

 

[Keystone agony]

So still no rain in Adelaide yet?

 

[ricardogp]

My contact in Adelaide says it is looking clear, but http://www.weatherzone.com.au/radar/sa/adelaide/128km says that rain is on the way, although patchy.

I am deciding whether to play the overs... it's currently 169.5 on TAB.

 

[Keystone agony]

Is it one to get on the first half higher scoring than 2nd half when the rain comes

 

[Keystone agony]

0.5U > 172.5 @2.15 (TAB) TML hawks vs crows

 

[ricardogp]

I think the rain will miss, and it's drifting up now.

0.5u over 170.5 @ $1.88

 

[tibor]

And this is why you don't put your bets on Monday. Now into 172.5 (Was 186.5). Considering laying another unit on the over. Hawks have no trouble scoring in the wet, as seen by the suns game in launceston. I was there, weather was rubbish.

Turns out I was worried about nothing. 186.5 was a breeze I take it the rain never settled in?

 

[ricardogp]

It was raining goals. As opposed to raining.

Sent from my HTC One S using Tapatalk

 

[bombers21]

Luke Hodge under 98.5 in DT @ $1.75

Very confident here

Another 5 minutes and he may have gone over, thankfully he finished on 89 for the game

 

[vho123]

Pity the Sportsbet refund promo is limited to $100 bets. Not gonna complain though

 

[Small Moves]

No plays on the Hawks vs Crows game apart from the multi (Hawks, WCE, Port all at the line). Decided to sit back and enjoy the game instead.

Been forgetting to post my bets before the games, so here's what I'm working with so far this weekend.

(1U) - DT: Matt Priddis Over 108.5 @ 1.87
(1U) - DT: Mark Le Cras v Dayne Zorko Head To Head Mark LeCras @ 1.80
(1U) - Total Disposals - Matt Priddis Over 29.5 @ 1.95
(1U) - Total Disposals - Luke Shuey Over 24.5 @ 2.10
(0.25U) - Most Disposals/Most Goals - M. Priddis / J. McGovern @ 15.00
(1U) - DT: Luke Parker v Kieran Jack Head To Head Luke Parker @ 1.88
(1U) - DT: Individual Player Scores - Ben McGlynn Under 99.5 @ 1.75
(1U) - DT: Paul Chapman v Patrick Ryder Head To Head Patrick Ryder @ 1.75
(1U) - DT: Dustin Martin v Travis Boak Head To Head Travis Boak @ 1.95
(1U) - DT: Tom Liberatore v Dion Prestia Head To Head Tom Liberatore @ 1.70
(1U) - DT: Total Disposals - Dion Prestia Disposals - Over/Under Under 27.5 @ 1.65

 

[foxy_dal]

Another 5 minutes and he may have gone over, thankfully he finished on 89 for the game

He finished on 99? Hope you too the under 100 I posted instead but it doesn't look like it.

Anyway some plays for tomorrow:

4 units Johnson over Jones DT @ $1.70
Average of 102 to 111 and you can get lines for both players at 97.5 and 115.5 which is quite a difference. Slight concern over SJ's fitness but Jones a chance of the Guthire tag as well. Am considering taking SJ unders as well as I think both bets are a good chance while it would be unlikely to lose both.

2 units Duncan over Vince DT @ $2.00
Can get lines of 100.5 for Duncan and 96.5 for Vince. Duncan is in great for averaging about 100 in his last 13 with 12 of thes 13 scores over 86 showing his consistency. IN the same 13 game period Vince has averaged 95 which suggests the 2 player liens available are about right. If Jones doesn't get a tag then it will be Vince.

2 units Greenwood over Gibson SC @ $1.85
Backing Greenwood to continue his form where he is averaging 115 in his last 8 to Gibson who is at 94. Greenwood has won this H2H in 5 of the last 7 and has scored over 100 in 7 of those last 8 games.

2 units Greenwood over Harvey DT @ $1.75
Same reasoning as above plus you can get a line of 100.5 for Harvey and 106.5 for Greenwood. With both Curran and Weller playing I think Harvey would be lucky to avoid a tag.

3 units Boyd under 107.5 DT @ $1.87
Can get 102.5 elsewhere which is what he is averaging for the year. He has slowed down lately however averaging 94 in his last 6 with 4 of these going under.

2 units Liberatore over Prestia DT @ $1.70
Was either this or Libba over 105 but think Prestia will get Wallis who has been tagging well lately. 8 of Libbas last 10 have been over 110 and Prestia is coming off a couple of quiet games of 84 and 77.

2 units O'Meara over Griffen DT @ $1.80
This is mainly because I read Griffen has been unwell and may still not play but if he does it doesn't sound like he will be fully fit. Add to this O'Meara is averaging 93 to Griffen at just 80 in an injury affected year. With Ablett out there is a chance for O'Meara to step up and get more ball too.

2 units Gibbs over 95.5 DT @ $1.87
Averaging 100 and covered this in 9 of last 13.

2 units McGlynn Under 99.5 DT @ $1.75
See back a page or two for Keystones reasoning which I think is spot on.

 

[Keystone agony]

Early Bets
0.5U TML >172.5 @2.15 HAWKS VS CRows
0.25U Breust Most Goals @13
$100 Hawks SU @1.68 (money back sportsbet special)
3U Hawks SU @1.70
1.5U Hawks -6.5 @1.91
2U Port/Hawks Multi SU @2.58

2U J.Lewis Under 110.5 DT @1.87 (TAB)
Also got on. Just way way too high for him. He has gone over about 50% which stopped me going bigger. The reason i hit this was because S.Mitchell in means less points for him really and less midfield time. Adelaide arent leaking many points either the 4th hardest to score against IIRC.
2.5U Betts >2.5 Goals @4.00 (Sportsbet)
3.25 Units Betts >2.5 goals @2.87 (Bet365)
12.5U Betts <2.5 Goals @1.52 (Luxbet)

Massive, massive night for me. Still a live multi, needing Port to win.

6-0-3

+9.93 Units (Multi still in play).

 

[Keystone agony]

Another 5 minutes and he may have gone over, thankfully he finished on 89 for the game

Hodge got 99 DT points mate. You lost.

 

[Keystone agony]

If anyone else wants to get on some more DT bets. Personally i wont be getting on but i do quite like them. Ive tried to restrict myself to the very best bets instead of betting on all of them.

Stanton >101.5 DT (TAB)
Mundy >95.5 DT (TAB)
SJ <115.5 DT (TAB)
S.Gibson 25+ disposals (Lux) - Check sportsbet line. Also H2H over Hayes (TAB)

Also maybe NDS <98.5 DT (Weller or Curren tag)

 

[Keystone agony]

Just some more little silly bets for me:

0.25U (Freebet) Sylvia >1.5 goals @2.37
0.25U (Freebet) Sylvia >2.5 goals @5.50
0.2U Lecras >1.5 Goals @1.70 (Lux)
0.2U Lecras 2 goals and 2 behinds @4 (Sportsbet) - Just needed one more point
0.5U Hanley > 24.5 @1.87
1U Hanley >29.5 disp @4.40 (Sportsbet)
0.2U Hanley >34.5 disp @17
0.2U Zorko >24.5 disp @3.50
0.2U Shuey > 24.5 disp @2.10
0.2U Masten >24.5 disp @2.75
0.2U Masten >29.5 disp @10.00
0.2U Priddis >34.5 disp @5
0.2U Armitage >24.5 disp @3.30
0.2U JOM >29.5 disp @4.20
0.2U D.Swallow >29.5 disp @4.20

 

[banana_bus]

I have a $200 bonus bet with TAB.

Should I use this in conjunction with the Sportsbet promo and go for a middle?

 

[Lensen]

No

 

[Island Bomber]

I have a $200 bonus bet with TAB.

Should I use this in conjunction with the Sportsbet promo and go for a middle?

How'd you get that? turnover or tab rewards?

 

[banana_bus]

No

Kekeke troll worked a treat