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AFL Round 17

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2 units Adelaide @ $2.402 (Betfair/Betchoice) - knock on Essendon's travelling plus I reckon the Crows were screaming out for a bye
2 units West Coast @ $2.20 (Unitab) - Like most I don't understand why they aren't favourites here
1 unit Port @ $4.30 (Centrebet) - knock on the Dees away from the MCG, Port typically do OK in Darwin against bottom 8 sides
1 unit Freo @ $3.90 (Centrebet) - haven't been impressed with the Swans recently, reckon Freo are overs
1 unit NM @ $3.15 (Alive) - Still not sold on WB whilst I already knew NM were rubbish against top teams and aren't flash away from Etihad either. Reckon North are overs
 
Lenny29 said:
2 units Adelaide @ $2.402 (Betfair/Betchoice) - knock on Essendon's travelling plus I reckon the Crows were screaming out for a bye
2 units West Coast @ $2.20 (Unitab) - Like most I don't understand why they aren't favourites here
1 unit Port @ $4.30 (Centrebet) - knock on the Dees away from the MCG, Port typically do OK in Darwin against bottom 8 sides
1 unit Freo @ $3.90 (Centrebet) - haven't been impressed with the Swans recently, reckon Freo are overs
1 unit NM @ $3.15 (Alive) - Still not sold on WB whilst I already knew NM were rubbish against top teams and aren't flash away from Etihad either. Reckon North are overs
Click to expand...

Some good value in some dogs this week.
I think Freo are a red hot shot at that value!
Will be an interesting round.
 
carpsi said:
Nah. 5 leg boxed multi means if you choose 5 legs @52 combos you are betting on all combos within those 5 legs. ie all 4 leg, 3 leg and 2 leg combos. If you only get 1 wrong this will pay out a 4 leg, a couple of 3 legs and a few 2 leggers.
Muck around with it on centrebet. You can click on the combos as well to see what they are.
Click to expand...

Thanks, I think I get it now.

So say I have 3 selections this week: West Coast (H2H), Bulldogs (-21.5), Melbourne (-27.5), and I put these in a Box Multi. I can then put $1 on the three leg multi, which will pay $8.66 if all three get up. I can then put $1 on each combo in the two leg multi, which will pay $12.67 if all three get up. So for a total bet of $4, I win $21.33 (profit of $17.33) if all three win.

But if only two win (say Bulldogs and Melbourne) it's different. I lose the three leg multi (-$1) and only win one of the two leg multi combos, which would I guess pay $4.03 (1.92 * 2.10). Thus, if Bulldogs and Melbourne cover the line but West Coast lose, I make a profit of $0.03. Also, if only one of them gets up, I lose it all.

Have I done this right??? I think I get it all now except for calculating the payout if 2 of the 3 cover the line, but I think that's the way it would work
 
Liking the look of Fremantle +25.5 @ 1.92 for 2u. Sydney's wins this year against decent opposition has been an average of less than 8 points, with the only blowouts against the bottom 3 in Port, Brisbane and Gold Coast.

Freo's bottom tier players will probably ensure the Swans get over the line, but I think it will be close as the last 12 meetings between these teams have gone under 39.5 either way (usually to the home team)
 

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Rocky_Balboa said:
Thanks, I think I get it now.

So say I have 3 selections this week: West Coast (H2H), Bulldogs (-21.5), Melbourne (-27.5), and I put these in a Box Multi. I can then put $1 on the three leg multi, which will pay $8.66 if all three get up. I can then put $1 on each combo in the two leg multi, which will pay $12.67 if all three get up. So for a total bet of $4, I win $21.33 (profit of $17.33) if all three win.

But if only two win (say Bulldogs and Melbourne) it's different. I lose the three leg multi (-$1) and only win one of the two leg multi combos, which would I guess pay $4.03 (1.92 * 2.10). Thus, if Bulldogs and Melbourne cover the line but West Coast lose, I make a profit of $0.03. Also, if only one of them gets up, I lose it all.

Have I done this right??? I think I get it all now except for calculating the payout if 2 of the 3 cover the line, but I think that's the way it would work
Click to expand...

Correct
 
For those on the unders in the pies blues crowd, looks like the weather is gonna be pretty nice so might go against your bets. Reckon it's still overs but if there was rain forecast i would've had a go at it too.
 
Do people ever bet on something just on a gut feeling? The reason I ask is because I'm leaning towards Carlton at the line this weekend, even though last Sunday I saw first hand Collingwood smash my lot, then Carlton get rolled by the Bulldogs, but for whatever reason I think Carlton will go alright on Saturday.

Other bets I like are Adelaide, Port and West Coast all at the line.
 
Carlton will get rolled so easily this week. People are still seriously underestimating Collingwood. Carlton's forward line w/out Waite will be shut down. Harry O annihilates Eddie, Leon is just as quick as Jeff, and Walker does nothing against a player of any quality. Henderson? No match for Reid. Setanta? Hampson? Unlikely. This will be another Collingwood domination. Pies will cover the line comfortably.
 
What does everyone think of this?

WCE 1-24
Geel/Geel/Geel/Geel
WB/WB
Rich/Rich
Freo +25.5

@20.79?

Or even add coll H2H @ 23.70
 

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I think that the style they play, plays right into St Kilda's hands. A lot of people are jumping on the WC bandwagon this week, so you might be right. I backed them last week to beat the cats, but i think the Saints at the dome will be a completely different type of match. Saints will lock the weagles down.
 
drops the odds down to 15.45 W/O Coll now though. mmm, tough decisions.
 
5 Bucks said:
I think that the style they play, plays right into St Kilda's hands. A lot of people are jumping on the WC bandwagon this week, so you might be right. I backed them last week to beat the cats, but i think the Saints at the dome will be a completely different type of match. Saints will lock the weagles down.
Click to expand...

Yeah i was going to stay away from this game but this is where im getting all my value basically, and the eagles are improving week in week out with so much energy.
 

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Beauy420 said:
What does everyone think of this?

WCE 1-24
Geel/Geel/Geel/Geel
WB/WB
Rich/Rich
Freo +25.5

@20.79?

Or even add coll H2H @ 23.70
Click to expand...

I reckon the West Coast and Geelong ones will get up but not sure about the rest. I think north can beat the dogs this week, they always get thumped by Collingwood and Geelong so dont worry about last week. I give GC a bit show against Richmond too.
 
saints will beat west coast imohttp://www.************/sports/52/b/happy.gifhttp://www.************/sports/123/b/happy.gif
http://www.************/sports/131/b/happy.gifhttp://www.************/sports/133/b/happy.gif
 
Multi 1:
1U @ 35.61

CHILE VS PERU - Under (3.5)
URUGUAY - H2H Match Result
WESTERN BULLDOGS (Handicap -16.5)
WEST COAST (Handicap +6.5)
ESSENDON (Handicap -9.5)
PORT ADELAIDE | More Goals Than Behinds
RICHMOND | More Goals Than Behinds
COLLINGWOOD | More Goals Than Behinds

Multi 2:
1U @ 6.93

CHILE vs PERU Under (3.5)
WESTERN BULLDOGS (Handicap -16.5)
ESSENDON (Handicap -9.5)
PORT ADELAIDE | More Goals Than Behinds
GEELONG H2H

After a long think I am the most confident on Western Bulldogs and Essendon both having big wins.. Think West Coast can knock over the Saints as well.
 
5 Bucks said:
Carlton will get rolled so easily this week. People are still seriously underestimating Collingwood. Carlton's forward line w/out Waite will be shut down. Harry O annihilates Eddie, Leon is just as quick as Jeff, and Walker does nothing against a player of any quality. Henderson? No match for Reid. Setanta? Hampson? Unlikely. This will be another Collingwood domination. Pies will cover the line comfortably.
Click to expand...
Will probably get Toovey, so you won't see him for the afternoon once the ball is bounced.
 

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AFL Round 17

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