AFL Round 18 "Value Bets"

[krisholio14]

I've decided to split em up this week.

50 smackers on each of these....

Adelaide under the line at 1.91

St Kilda 1-39 at 2.30

 

[the egg]

Freo with a 54 point head start is an absolute certainty for me. Without Higgins, Murphy, Gia and Welsh in the side i think they will struggle to find avenues to goal...i'd even have a nibble at Freo to win since Sandi and Pav are back playing, and playing well.

Hawks +15.5 @ $1.90. Simple, they need the win and Port are rubbish, even at home.

Sydney v St Kilda most disposals group B i'll be taking Gram @ $4's. Being a smaller ground Ray, Blake and Fisher will struggle to get those cheap possies whilst Grams listed at half forward and been playing well over the last 5 weeks averaging 25+ disposals.

Carlton v North Melbourne most disposals group B i think Scotland is a good pick here at $3.60. A natural accumulator and often racks up 25+. Kade Simpson and Stevens are threats but are hot and cold players.

 

[Danger Mouse]

I never realised 1/2 even money is "value"

Looking at these bets, i can see why the bookies don't lose, they give no odds at all.

Value is now considered what should happen based on what happened 3 months ago when the same 2 teams played at generally odds on.

Even the huge margin results are not really value if the other teams decides to give 110%

I was thinking buddy was a good bet this week for leading goal scorer then after reading this, i'm now thinking he has to...

A. Beat his opponent
B. Kick Straight
C. Hope his team wins enough of it to give him enough opportunities
D. Umpires on his side (not likely in S.A)
E. Has to beat 300+ other players going around this weekend

All for the massive "value" of 7.00

NOT!

Wouldn't a 5 dollar outlay on a 500-1 multi be better "value" considering 5 dollars is meaningless. Yes they all add up but your also paying for your entertainment for the weekend with a loss not many people could care less about VS 100 bucks on so called good thing at 1.91.

Good luck to everyone anyway!

 

[2121]

blues ht/ft dbl 1.55... thanx.
with all the changes in the teams they'll be keen to hold those spots.

 

[Oaksnaf]

I never realised 1/2 even money is "value"

Looking at these bets, i can see why the bookies don't lose, they give no odds at all.

Value is now considered what should happen based on what happened 3 months ago when the same 2 teams played at generally odds on.

Even the huge margin results are not really value if the other teams decides to give 110%

I was thinking buddy was a good bet this week for leading goal scorer then after reading this, i'm now thinking he has to...

A. Beat his opponent
B. Kick Straight
C. Hope his team wins enough of it to give him enough opportunities
D. Umpires on his side (not likely in S.A)
E. Has to beat 300+ other players going around this weekend

All for the massive "value" of 7.00

NOT!

Wouldn't a 5 dollar outlay on a 500-1 multi be better "value" considering 5 dollars is meaningless. Yes they all add up but your also paying for your entertainment for the weekend with a loss not many people could care less about VS 100 bucks on so called good thing at 1.91.

Good luck to everyone anyway!

Value is perhaps one of the most over-used words in punting.

Any confident selection is boasted as value.

But also. What makes us think that we know more than those who spend hours and have an extensive range of data to come to the conclusion of the markets in sports betting. Or the computer programs that throw them up.

Surely, to believe that we know more is ignorant? Maybe. Unless your a freak and do know more.

I would say, that finding the best odds available on a selection is an easier option than smashing the perceived value.

 

[Crooza]

Placed a $50 wager on the Swans this week to knock off the Saints @ $6.25
Put $50 on Brisbane @ $3.30 to but now looks as though Bradshaw is out, Bugger.

Does anyone know the betting record for biggest Market for a Win? I saw Freo at $13.29 for the win, Never seen such a High Market.

Best of Luck with your wagers Guy's and Girls

 

[GoodesStuff]

Placed a $50 wager on the Swans this week to knock off the Saints @ $6.25
Put $50 on Brisbane @ $3.30 to but now looks as though Bradshaw is out, Bugger.

Does anyone know the betting record for biggest Market for a Win? I saw Freo at $13.29 for the win, Never seen such a High Market.

Best of Luck with your wagers Guy's and Girls

I think the dees were 25-1 against the cats last season!

 

[The Royal Sampler]

Placed a $50 wager on the Swans this week to knock off the Saints @ $6.25
Put $50 on Brisbane @ $3.30 to but now looks as though Bradshaw is out, Bugger.

Does anyone know the betting record for biggest Market for a Win? I saw Freo at $13.29 for the win, Never seen such a High Market.

Best of Luck with your wagers Guy's and Girls

Bradshaw was never going to play.

 

[Mugpunter]

Mark my words.

Selection: : NORTH MELBOURNE (+18.0) @ 2.11 Unknown
Event: AFL, NORTH MELBOURNE vs CARLTON
Market: Points, 31 July 2009 02:40
Selection: : FREMANTLE (+48.0) @ 2.11 Unknown
Event: AFL, WESTERN BULLDOGS vs FREMANTLE
Market: Points, 31 July 2009 21:10
Selection: : ADELAIDE (+21.0) @ 2.11 Unknown
Event: AFL, GEELONG vs ADELAIDE
Market: Points, 31 July 2009 21:10
Selection: : SYDNEY (+31.0) @ 2.11 Unknown
Event: AFL, SYDNEY vs ST KILDA
Market: Points, 01 August 2009 02:10
Selection: : BRISBANE @ 3.17 Unknown
Event: AFL, COLLINGWOOD vs BRISBANE
Market: Head to Head, 01 August 2009 02:10
Selection: : GOLD COAST TITANS (-6.5) @ 2.08 Unknown
Event: NRL, GOLD COAST TITANS vs NORTH QLD COWBOYS
Market: Points, 31 July 2009 02:37
Selection: : MELBOURNE STORM (+4.0) @ 2.04 Unknown
Event: NRL, ST GEORGE-ILLAWARRA vs MELBOURNE STORM
Market: Points, 31 July 2009 02:40
Selection: : BRISBANE BRONCOS (-4.0) @ 2.08 Unknown
Event: NRL, CANBERRA RAIDERS vs BRISBANE BRONCOS
Market: Points, 01 August 2009 00:30
Selection: : MANLY SEA EAGLES (-8.0) @ 2.09 Unknown
Event: NRL, WESTS TIGERS vs MANLY SEA EAGLES
Market: Points, 03 August 2009 02:00
Combined Dividend: 1159.023

 

[GoodesStuff]

Mark my words.

Yeah I had a multi of North +20.5, St.George and Gold Coast. Very disappointed in the Titans effort...

 

[The BRICKSTER]

Titans have wrecked my Friday night, pathetic

 

[The Royal Sampler]

Happy with North playing as expected. +19.5 was never really in danger.

 

[Japes]

Geelong +39.5 @ $3.00. Even despite their injuries, that's worth a shot.

EDIT: Ahem, Geelong to win by 40 points or more that is, not with a 39.5 point start.

 

[mike262]

i took a multi of st kilda and collingwood both under 39.5 at roughly 5.30. had $100 on it...
Damn brisbane with only 1 goal 3 behinds after half time. If only they got 1 goal 4 behinds

 

[PHX]

i took a multi of st kilda and collingwood both under 39.5 at roughly 5.30. had $100 on it...
Damn brisbane with only 1 goal 3 behinds after half time. If only they got 1 goal 4 behinds

Yeah I was pissed off as well as my multi involving the Pies was u/39. You can guarantee the rest of the bets will get up now.

 

[FFB1]

Took a 3 leg line/match score - hard enough to get on a single basis let alone all three but got the Fri night Carlton/Roos double, got both lines in yesterdays day games - got the match score by 0.5 pts in the Dogs/Freo game but missed the match score by 0.5 pts in Geel/Adel game. 0.5 pts!..

Anyway word must have spread quickly about D Merrett starting at FF in the Lions v Pies game - $126 first goal into $17. Not sure if anyonne heard it anywhere (first hand, second hand, third hand or radio) however I would have jumped on the $126 in a heartbeat - would have probably had a nibble at the $17 had I not put getting a beer over running downstairs and putting on a punt so I only saw him walking up to FF 30 seconds before the start.

 

[Kahuna]

Just put on

Hawks/Richmond/Essendon all under 39.5 @ $11
Richmond/Essendon both under 39.5 @ $5
Melbourne/West Coast both under 39.5 @ $17.00

Now just watch 3 smashings.

 

[The Royal Sampler]

i took a multi of st kilda and collingwood both under 39.5 at roughly 5.30. had $100 on it...
Damn brisbane with only 1 goal 3 behinds after half time. If only they got 1 goal 4 behinds

Oh, ouch. I'd happily give you one point off our victory, that's awful luck. Having said that, there'd be plenty who backed us to win > 39.5 who would be counting their lucky stars. I took us to win by > 4.5 points, so after half time that was pretty safe but it looked in trouble early.

 

[tarky]

shattered, hawks have cost me $1400 in a multi. Having a rough w'end with the multiples just missing

 

[The Royal Sampler]

WCE vs. Essendon game total 79 points @ half-time. If they keep on that pace they'll combine for 158 points and I'll get the money for < 189.5.

 

[adii_7]

essendon h2h rite now . $4! OMGOMG

 

[mike262]

i took a multi of st kilda and collingwood both under 39.5 at roughly 5.30. had $100 on it...
Damn brisbane with only 1 goal 3 behinds after half time. If only they got 1 goal 4 behinds

With just missing out yesterday i got some amazing luck 2day. $100 multi on port +14.5 into richmond by under 39.5. (4.20)

thats 2 multis saved in 2 weeks with kick after siren. geelong being last weeks one.

finished my w/e with west coast +25.5. looking safe to finish off a reasonable profitable w/e.

 

[SydneyBomber]

remind me never ever bet on essendon again - 2 weeks now they've cost me a packet.
pathetic blouses.

 

[Bananayard]

Sydney + 35
Geelong - 25 (People who are taking Adel+25 should look at recent record)
WCE @ 2.90
PA @ 2.65
Freo + 54 - Dont love it but its alot of points to give...

Kangas tonight maybe aswell at the line...

Wow, great work besdies the geel game

 

[PHX]

Just put on
Melbourne/West Coast both under 39.5 @ $17.00
.

That's bloody unlucky.