- Banned
- #51
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AFL Round 18
- Thread starter Cuzz09
- Start date
- Tagged users None
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- Banned
- #52
Good luck on your bets
Subject to seeing the teams, I will likely take the Saints and the Dogs at the line.
The Saints are pretty much full strength.
They play the Dons who beat them in their last 2 games.
I watched each of those games and felt that the Dons were lucky to win both.
In particular, Hille was a matchwinner in their last match and will be missing.
Watson is a bit proppy (although BOG last week) and Winderlich will also be a big loss.
For the other match:
The Dogs also thumped the Roos earlier this year.
Given the Roos have big injury concerns and lost to the Dons in a heartbreaker last week, I can't see them beating a Dogs outfit which thumped Freo.
hille should be back
winderlich is no loss. we can match his pace with another speed star.
we will win i guess... (not really)
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Davo75
All Australian
I always do my analysis on a Wednesday afternoon or night and possibilities for Round 18 are ...
Port Adelaide (+19.5) @ $1.92, could be an idea to hold off until closer to first bounce as reckon the Hawks might come in and you might get that price with a couple more points start for the Power. Hawthorn don't have the greatest record in Adelaide.
Sydney (+28.5) @ $1.92, get on now, don't think you'll get a better line than the one on offer, I don't mind backing teams coming off an unexpected caning and I'm not entirely sure Geelong are right on the boil at the moment, plus Sydney don't have to win for a collect.
Richmond to win @ $2.42 / (+10.5) @ $1.92, Sunday forecast for Melbourne, windy with showers, brings this game a lot closer than it would've appeared originally in my opinion. Richmond will be keen to bounce back and lay any possibility of a wooden spoon to rest, the Crows showed they aren't worthy of a top 8 spot, and I'm not sure the wet conditions will suit, especially if a heap of pressure is put on by the Tigers and force the Crows into customary mistakes not seen for a month until Sunday!
I'll definitely be having a slice of the first two picks, and might hang off on the Sunday game, until last season (2009) I'd never backed my own club or backed against them, but gradually the head got stronger than the heart when it comes to sports investing decisions thus a significant improvement in my bottom line for the year, my gambling year runs like the financial one.
Port Adelaide (+19.5) @ $1.92, could be an idea to hold off until closer to first bounce as reckon the Hawks might come in and you might get that price with a couple more points start for the Power. Hawthorn don't have the greatest record in Adelaide.
Sydney (+28.5) @ $1.92, get on now, don't think you'll get a better line than the one on offer, I don't mind backing teams coming off an unexpected caning and I'm not entirely sure Geelong are right on the boil at the moment, plus Sydney don't have to win for a collect.
Richmond to win @ $2.42 / (+10.5) @ $1.92, Sunday forecast for Melbourne, windy with showers, brings this game a lot closer than it would've appeared originally in my opinion. Richmond will be keen to bounce back and lay any possibility of a wooden spoon to rest, the Crows showed they aren't worthy of a top 8 spot, and I'm not sure the wet conditions will suit, especially if a heap of pressure is put on by the Tigers and force the Crows into customary mistakes not seen for a month until Sunday!
I'll definitely be having a slice of the first two picks, and might hang off on the Sunday game, until last season (2009) I'd never backed my own club or backed against them, but gradually the head got stronger than the heart when it comes to sports investing decisions thus a significant improvement in my bottom line for the year, my gambling year runs like the financial one.
- Banned
- #57
based on weather form etc.. ive gone with these 3 so far..
adelaide 0-60 $11
richmond 0-60 $5.50
bulldogs over 121 $2.75
Melbourne 121+ Points 7.50
Collingwood 121+ Points 2.75
underlined are potential bets
adelaide 0-60 $11
richmond 0-60 $5.50
bulldogs over 121 $2.75
Melbourne 121+ Points 7.50
Collingwood 121+ Points 2.75
underlined are potential bets
Brisbane 121+ @ $7.50, think Brown and Fev back at home are ready to fire.
Collingwood/Carlton 221+ @ $6.50, Collingwood are a scoring machine and expect them to notch up another big score, and if Carlton small forwards are on they can easily score 100+, think $6.50 is good value more than anything
Richmond/Adelaide 150 or less @ $4.50, rain forcasted in Melb on Sunday and if Jack doesn't kick a bag then neither do Richmond.
Collingwood/Carlton 221+ @ $6.50, Collingwood are a scoring machine and expect them to notch up another big score, and if Carlton small forwards are on they can easily score 100+, think $6.50 is good value more than anything
Richmond/Adelaide 150 or less @ $4.50, rain forcasted in Melb on Sunday and if Jack doesn't kick a bag then neither do Richmond.
- Banned
- #63
publicenemyk2
Rookie
The adel/rich both under 60 is paying $45 worth a nibble
- Banned
- #65
wtf?
there is 0% chance of both teams scoring under 60 points...
youd be better off picking a winner than picking a high value losing bet...
- Banned
- #67
Put Essendons wayward form aside and just think about the edge they have had over st.kilda...they are the team that beat them last year on that undefeated streak. They also beat them this year for 2 in a row against the saints. Form and stats may mean nothing and after some thought i would not be making the saints a guarantee at all, just a most likely winner.
- Jun 14, 2010
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Davo75
All Australian
Oh Dear!! I was at that game, worst I've ever seen..... the most excruciating and painful two and a half hours of my football supporting life!!! I had to line up for beer at 3/4 time though!!
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- Banned
- #70
The $5.20 for an Essendon win is the value of the round. They trouble Saint Kilda & have Hille returning.
The Royal Sampler
Floreat Pica, Bitch!
What would the line be in that game, do you think?
The_Doctor
Club Legend
- Jul 23, 2009
- 2,393
- 104
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- North Melbourne
I know its the next round, but i would like to thank whoever first suggested Collingwood +121 / Geelong +121 last week. A nice little profit was made.
Ditto. Had never played this bet type before. More value than the respective lines.
Davo75
All Australian
You're bet is the reason sportsbooks have no qualm giving away free bets!
I would suggest a single bet!!!
only real value i see this week is the bombers @ the line
saints struggle against fast running sides and had a tough game against the hawks, they will probably win this but the bombers will make a game of it
