AFL Round 18

[Moses01]

Ouch for the Fisher over McEvoy bets. Subbed.

shocking

 

[Big Jono]

Tonights only bet

Saints to win by under 39.5 points - $2.46 @ Betfair

I think Adelaide should be atleast competitive and St Kilda have a habit of just doing enough to win lately, they seem to go into their shell a bit when they think the game is won and just chip it around a bit not really worried about extending their lead.

Gooooooone

 

[Damarus]

Christ that's the last time I bet on an Adelaide game...

 

[bisazc887]

Not that i backed adel and cant remember the last time i backed them but i dont even think you could back them against port with any confidence,..Wonder what odds that will throw up

 

[laam]

so a 55-15 point last qtr means montagna beats goddard by 3 points! You can tell how I'm going at the moment.

 

[Lensen]

Last 5 Saints games have had lower second halves than first halves:

78 v 65
83 v 79
110 v 39
91 v 81
80 v 58

79 in this game at half time, reckon 150.5 is almost what the actual line should be so I reckon Centrebet's $3 is value

1 point, Adelaide on Friday night screw me again

 

[Amack]

Well after a dirty night backing the Crows margin. I'm back to do it all again.

Tipster: The Oracle
Event: North Melbourne V Brisbane (ES)
Date of Event: 23-07-2011
Time of Event: 14:10
Sport: AFL
Tip: Todd Goldstein more match DT points than Drew Petrie
Odds: $1.8
Units: 7
Sportsbook: Sportingbet
Comments: Goldie has won this 3/4 matches and is far more consistant. As much as I'd love Petrie to smash it for my dream team... This is a 70% plus chance of coming off.

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Tipster: The Oracle
Event: Sydney V Western Bulldogs (SCG)
Date of Event: 23-07-2011
Time of Event: 14:10
Sport: AFL
Tip: Daniel Hannebury to have 21 or more disposals
Odds: $1.8
Units: 8
Sportsbook: Centrebet
Comments: This is a certainty. He's done it the last 5 weeks and against the bull dogs makes it even more likely.

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Tipster: The Oracle
Event: Gold Coast V Collingwood (GCS)
Date of Event: 23-07-2011
Time of Event: 19:10
Sport: AFL
Tip: Any player to beat Travis Cloak most match goals
Odds: $1.45
Units: 10
Sportsbook: Centrebet
Comments: I love these ones. Yes Travis is most likely to kick most goals but it what will likely turn into a blood bath anyone could kick goals and Trav will lead up the ground at times.

 

[Borgsta]

1. Petrie could have a field day against that defense. I'd say it's 50/50.

2. Agree should happen but have no idea why playing the Bulldogs makes it more likely, esp. if he is tagged.

3. Yep absolutely love it, shame it is short. GC always concede goals to small forwards.

 

[twarby]

that Cloke one is way too short...

lol at the Petrie bet, no way its a 70% chance, had 125 against them last time which included 4 behinds

 

[sneak]

adelaide +51.5 no chance

 

[TurboBreuster]

It was a good night tonight and I'm now on a 4 in a row run for MGS. Last Sunday I had Balla (Thanks Lenny) Jpod and Hall, plus tonight Milne. For tomorrow:

FGS
0.15U Harvey @17 (Sportingbet)
0.15U Banfield @17 (B365)
0.25U McGlynn @21 (Sportsalive)
0.05U Gilbee @51 (B365)
0.15U Hall @10 (Sportsbet)

MGS
0.5U Petrie @3.25 (Sportinbet)
0.12U McVeigh @26 (Sportsbet)
0.4U Hall @3.6 (Sportingbet)
0.3U Blair @9 (Centrebet)
0.2U Swan @17 (Sportingbet)
0.1U Reimers @26 (Centrebet)
0.2U Kruezer @21 (Sportsbet)

Match bets
2.5U CARL -14.5 @1.91 (Pinnacle)
2U NTH -40.5 @2 (Pinnacle)
0.4U No goal in the 1st 10 mins SYD/WBD @12 (Centrebet) Thanks Half Back Flank
0.8U WBD ML @2.71 (Pinnacle)

 

[Amack]

1. Petrie could have a field day against that defense. I'd say it's 50/50.

2. Agree should happen but have no idea why playing the Bulldogs makes it more likely, esp. if he is tagged.

3. Yep absolutely love it, shame it is short. GC always concede goals to small forwards.

Well I guess tomorrow will tell the tale. I lost my first bet of the round on the Margin tonight so I need to hit these to make any money.

 

[midnight_toker]

There is some good value for highest scoring team of round if you think one of these short price favorites will get on a roll and score more than the pies.

Pies are $1.80

One of the Etihad playing favourites are probably the most likely...

Saints are $11 127 points not a bad start
Cats $4.50
North $5

Still not enough to beat the Pies ????

 

[KardiniaPark]

Cant see the pies getting less than 150 they explode against good teams, god knows what they will do to the Suns.

 

[Rooster Cogburn]

Centrebet max PYOL for the pies is 124.5 @ 5.15. I'll take a little bit of that.

 

[Jolldo87]

Even if Collingwood don't get 127 i'd expect Geelong to against Richmond at Etihad.

 

[Rocky_Balboa]

Like the look of Coll v GC Game Total under 194.5. Even if Collingwood kick away, their defence is good enough to restrict Gold Coast to a measly score to maintain the low Game Total.

This year, only four times has Collingwood played a match, where the game total was greater than 194.5, and 3 of these matches were in the first 4 rounds.

Round 1 v Port, where Port were able to score 80 points
R2 v North (North = 56 points, but game total was only 199)
R4 v Richmond (90 points)
R9 v Adelaide (92 points)

So, unless you think Gold Coast will score above 80 points, and probably closer to 90 or 92, then Collingwood's going to have to kick a very large score (like their 143 against North) to even just get over the 194.5 game total

 

[Lensen]

Big day of playing and then watching footy and don't intend being up early enough (or in enough of a state of mind) tomorrow to get bets on so am getting tomorrow's most goals bets on before Sportingbet put their prices up.

0.5 units D.Martin @ $26

0.5 units Dunn @ $81 (took about a minute to get approved lol)

0.5 units Shuey @ $51

 

[Mudeo]

SYDNEY More Behinds Than Goals $1.700

Whats that term that gets floated around here to often? "Free Money" i think it is

 

[twarby]

SYDNEY More Behinds Than Goals $1.700

Whats that term that gets floated around here to often? "Free Money" i think it is

put your entire roll on it then

 

[sneak]

syd vs bulldogs under 155.5 @ 1.87

 

[twarby]

May I ask what the weather is like in Melb? Weather reports aren't always very clear. May affect the Collingwood game... Wouldn't want to pick a line if it's rained out.
Report is fine.

doubt Melbourne weather will affect Collingwood match

 

[thetwooth]

You want gold coast weather report haha

 

[sneak]

playing in the gold coast

 

[EaglesNflowers]

Big day of playing and then watching footy and don't intend being up early enough (or in enough of a state of mind) tomorrow to get bets on so am getting tomorrow's most goals bets on before Sportingbet put their prices up.

0.5 units D.Martin @ $26

0.5 units Dunn @ $81 (took about a minute to get approved lol)

0.5 units Shuey @ $51

Really like the Dunn bet but might have to wait on the sub for that one....
Shuey is always a good one, could have snared it last week with a few umpiring calls