AFL Round 2

[Trailblazer]

Really warming to Geelong at the line (-20.5). I know the bombers have improved, but they face a powerful Geelong team which have comfortably had Essendon's measure 3 of their last four meetings at the Dome. Hard to gauge the strength of Essendon's win against the Roos but I feel the will really miss Lucas this week (and most of the year). A couple of days extra rest and Geelong by 4 goals or more seems very likely....

Will take a final look at the match ups before committing though...

 

[Daytripper]

Really warming to Geelong at the line (-20.5). I know the bombers have improved, but they face a powerful Geelong team which have comfortably had Essendon's measure 3 of their last four meetings at the Dome. Hard to gauge the strength of Essendon's win against the Roos but I feel the will really miss Lucas this week (and most of the year). A couple of days extra rest and Geelong by 4 goals or more seems very likely....

Will take a final look at the match ups before committing though...

Just a tip - If you keep backing the minus you will go broke in the long run.

 

[Trailblazer]

Thanks for the tip. So backing in the positive is the road to riches in the long run??

I take it on a match by match basis. I liked Brisbane with the head start in round one, it has to be judged on an individual basis. I would only 'keep' backing in the minus if i felt opportunity to profit.

 

[Daytripper]

Thanks for the tip. So backing in the positive is the road to riches in the long run??

I take it on a match by match basis. I liked Brisbane with the head start in round one, it has to be judged on an individual basis. I would only 'keep' backing in the minus if i felt opportunity to profit.

If you have to back the minus - back the team to win straight out. Alternatively just give the game a miss.

 

[Trailblazer]

I guess those $1.90+ odds suck me in...Havn't kept close records but i will do it this year and see how it pans out.

 

[mercurial]

Just a tip - If you keep backing the minus you will go broke in the long run.

Have you got statistics to back that up? Dogs have performed well over the past 2-3 seasons (not as well last season though) but over a longer period of time I think the advantage is less pronounced.

Besides, if you pick your spots, do your research and don't just make picks on gut feel all the time, who is to say that you can't winning picking favourites ATS?

 

[Daytripper]

Have you got statistics to back that up? Dogs have performed well over the past 2-3 seasons (not as well last season though) but over a longer period of time I think the advantage is less pronounced.

Besides, if you pick your spots, do your research and don't just make picks on gut feel all the time, who is to say that you can't winning picking favourites ATS?

The minus won 3 from 8 on the weekend. Cwood, Hawthorn & West Coast.
Take into account that you are also getting $1.90 so you need to win just over 52% of matches just to break even.

Besides the raw statistics, there is the psychology of the minus. Teams often switch off when they're well in front or coaches take off their good players when they see that they can't lose.

At least when you back the plus you know that your team will generally be giving you 100% most of the time. Its a nice thing to know when you're sports betting.

 

[TheNextBigThing]

Load up on North this weekend.

 

[CarterS]

Lions to win 1-39 tonight at $2.40 isn't too bad, also paying $1.80 straight up, not too bad.

 

[ormond-allen]

re Line betting.... Should be at least two negatives get up this weekend...
Surely:
-the Dogs will beat the Dees by more than 18.5
-the Saints will put the Blues away by more than 26.5

 

[GeneralDisarray]

Load up on North this weekend.

Oh mate I've been thinking about it all week. I had them under 39.5 last week and was shattered. If any side is going to have a big one this week it'll be the Kangas, especially after the players came out and said they were a disgrace. Maybe I'll put a very small wager on them for over 39.5. It can be my "fun" bet of the round .

 

[Trailblazer]

Load up on North this weekend.

Not a bad call. The Richmond's formline through Carlton counts for very little, and the scoreboard kind of flattered them i thought....

 

[KikidadidaK]

Coll v Bris
H-H- Coll out to $2.10- time to jump on...even the line of +6.5 is good at 1.90 a piece

Most Disposals tonight- Begley the shortest priced lion? Drummond in that most disposals section @ 6.26 or Pendles @ 6.50

Most Dis.- Swan v Black- surely the pies wont let black run riot again...get on swan @ $2.10 ($18 for most for the round looks good)

See how these fair before i map out all my weekend but for now i will also include Kangas, Port at the line, and Saints...

Doggies give me nightmares after last year costing me a good payout in a multi when they bloody lost to Carlton so wont back them against the Dees this week...If anything i might have a few bob on the dees!

Good punting lads!

 

[SpecialComments]

that bet is the lock of the year. house on it

 

[CarterS]

150 points or less tonight is paying 4.60 on TAB and 6.50 on Sportsbet.com.au, A MASSIVE THUNDERSTORM IS BREAKING OUT IN BRISBANE.

PUNTERS UNLOAD!!!!

 

[ChiefAnalyst]

150 points or less tonight is paying 4.60 on TAB and 6.50 on Sportsbet.com.au, A MASSIVE THUNDERSTORM IS BREAKING OUT IN BRISBANE.

PUNTERS UNLOAD!!!!

Unload your tears

 

[eagledream]

I like to bet with big with what i'd perceive to be small risk rather than small bet for big gain. Last week i had $50 on the hawks to beat the dees by 20.5 or more. This week i've gone $100 on geel/geel/geel/geel at $1.75 on TAB sportsbet. Suppose we'll see how good my theory is by the end of the day.

 

[Trailblazer]

Really warming to Geelong at the line (-20.5). I know the bombers have improved, but they face a powerful Geelong team which have comfortably had Essendon's measure 3 of their last four meetings at the Dome. Hard to gauge the strength of Essendon's win against the Roos but I feel the will really miss Lucas this week (and most of the year). A couple of days extra rest and Geelong by 4 goals or more seems very likely....

That was much easier money than i anticipated....

 

[CarterS]

Unload your tears

Was a great value bet and I would do the same under those circumstances every day of the week There was some very straight kicking on friday night.