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AFL Round 20

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Joined
Aug 15, 2011
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AFL Club
Essendon
Other Teams
Port Adelaide
Rich 2.50 vs Essendon 1.50 (Line 12.5)

Being an Essendon supporter I really like Richmond here. They have proven for some time now they are in form however they wernt great against GWS and still havnt beaten much lately. But to win what is it 6 in a row is a massive effort by any team this year.

Another fact. Bombers havnt beaten Richmond twice in a year since 2002.

Bombers still struggle to score. They wont expect any good ins Hibberd, Watson and Daniher are still a few weeks away.

Richmond SU and at the line I like.

GWS 4.70 and North 1.18 (33.5 Line)

Initially I liked north to cover the line. However now I think of it, its a must stay away game. I can see GWS winning and also North winning big. Keep clear.

Carlton 1.50 vs Gold Coast 2.50 (11.5 Line)

I think they have the line about right. Maybe Gold Coast offer value but another id keep clear of. Carlton are starting to get going Judd, Gibbs, Murphy through the middle and Carazzo/Curnow performing tagging roles well. Hard one to predict. GC maybe offer slight value think the line should be 8.

Hawks 1.07 vs Melb 7.50

I like the hawks here and to cover the line. Melbourne simply cannot kick a score. They are 50-60 max against avg oppo let alone the hawks. Hawks wont kick under 100. They love beating up on teams.

Geel 1.50 vs Freo 2.50 (Line 12.5)

Tough game again. Im actually starting rate Geelong. I just questioned whether they had enough avenues to goal and whether they still do. Motlop and Christensen are HUGE for them. Freo beat them last year at Skilled but I think Freo are really starting to struggle. Kelly probs does the job on Ballantyne, Pavlich restricted by Lonergan. Harry T might be a chance To play forward adding another avenue. Mzungu wont play, doubt Walters returns to skilled and anything more than a sub. Liking geelong but they dont offer much value.

Port 2.50 vs Syd 1.51 (12.5 Line)

I like Sydney. Port are in horrible horrible form. Buddy back in even though its in Adelaide they smashed Adelaide earlier in the year at adelaide oval when they were out of form. The big field suits Sydney IMO. Hannebery and Buddy will play they will almost have their best team for the year with R.Shaw better after one game.

Bris 2.40 vs Adel 1.55 (Line 10.5)

Really unsure about this game after Adelaides effort against WCE and them costing me 750 bucks in a multi. I feel Adelaide have too much firepower and scoreing ability for the lions so certainly leaning that way. Brisbane still havnt beat anything yet. Brisbane have been good for 5 weeks now.

Stk 4.20 vs WBD 1.21 (30.5 Line)

I like Saints at the line. The freo game seemed a one off but they are starting to form a solid side now. Hayes, Montagna, Steven, Armitage and Weller tagging well is a good midfield. Riewoldt and Stanley are causing headaches for sides now there defence with Dempster, Delaney ect are okay. WBD just cant score. They seem to have a ceiling of about 95 ATM ill back the Saints to get 65. Doggies have been good at etihad just from looking so I might do a bit more research and wait for the line to drift.

WCE 2.00 vs Coll 1.76 (2.5 Line)

Gee I was liking the eagles here a week or so ago and was hoping for a much greater line. I still think eagles are a real chance here. Reid still seema off the pace and until that changes or White hits form I see other teams as a real chance. They are struggling to score. Eagles have the firepower capable they could get ontop of the weak pies backline.
 

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Got on early this morning late yday.

1U Richmond SU @2.5 (TAB)
1U Richmond +10.5 @1.90 (TAB)
0.5U Richmond SU @2.70 (TAB)
0.5U Richmond 1-39 @3.20 (Sportsbet)

2U Sydney SU @1.70 (TAB)
0.5U Sydney 40+ @4.00 (B365)

3U Hawks -48.5 @1.91 (B365)
1U Melb 0-50 points @3 (IAS)

1U Bris vs Adel <177.5 TML (B365)

2U Stkilda +27.5 @1.92 (IAS)

2U Wce vs Coll TML <170.5 (B365)

5U Hawks/Adel/Syd SU @2.32 (IAS) +10%
 
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Agree with the Suns' statement above, but I would like a bit more for them SU.
$2.50 might not be enough for me to take them, considering how they have played without Ablett in the past month.
 
Ended up having a poor Saturday with North and St Kida losing
But had a very good Sunday with Brisbane & Collingwood winning, also had them multi'd up as well.
Couldn't post them because I was suspended for a day.

Hoping to build on that next weekend.

Early thoughts:

I like Essendon at the line of (-12.5) I feel they have to much to play for to drop this one.
Carlisle seems to be marking everything In his vicinity and I feel he could have a good game.
Richmond are set for a stumble after a big winning streak.

I also might make a small play on Essendon 40+ @ 4.00

GWS are value against North, will make a play on their line & also a small play on 1-39 @ 5.80

Carlton have been impressive in recent weeks but feel they might be set for a let down after last weeks loss and travel from Perth.
They could be without Judd and Gold Coast have shown they can play very well at Etihad.
I'm liking Suns H2H & Line

Hawks will win comfortably, 40+ I reckon

Will wait for teams for Port/Sydney, If Buddy is back I might go for them.

Geelong at the line, easy money you would think at the Cattery

Brisbane/Adelaide, I might avoid 50/50 game who knows which Adelaide will show up.
I think it will be close though, last 3 clashes have been decided by 5,10 & 19 pts respectively.

Can see the Bulldogs beating the Saints comfortably, but I can't deny they are value.
Last home game for Lenny Hayes, perhaps that could fire them up
Will make a play on the line of 33.5+ and H2H @ 4.20

West Coast/Collingwood will avoid for now.
 
Also have this drunken multi I put on yesterday for shits n giggles

Essendon (-12.5)
GWS (+33.5)
Gold Coast 1-39
Hawthorn 40+
Brisbane 1-39
St Kilda 1-39

1u @ 275.07

And one more multi here

Essendon (-12.5)
Hawthorn (-47.5)
Geelong (-12.5)
Sydney (-14.5)
St Kilda (+30.5)

1u @ 21.67


Anyone know why sportsbet lines are only paying 1.85 atm?
 
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Rich/Ess U163.5
GWS/North O189.5
Carlton/GC U191.5
Haw/Mel U170.5
Port/Syd U170.5
Gee/Fre O161.5
Bris/Ade U182.5 (now into 177.5. I think it may have been an error when first put up, but I managed to get action on it before it was fixed. Waiting for the bet to be cancelled lol)
Stk/wb U185.5
WC/Coll U170.5

If the sportsbet promo is running again this week there's a few dogs i'm keen on. I don't mind the eagles, tigers and saints with the 20 point buffer.
 
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GWS vs North U189.5
Hawks vs Melb O170.5

The North game was probably the one I was least confident on. GWS have been playing reasonably well up forward lately, i think they could knock out a score of about 70-80 at home with so so north D. Of course North will win so will kick about 100-120. Will be a close one I think.

Hawthorn are going to destroy Melbourne. I honestly can't see the demons kicking more than about 40 against a tight hawks back line. Can hawthorn score more than 130? Maybe, but it goes back to Melbourne playing a defensive game style. Geelong barely punctured 100, Fremantle couldn't, nor Port. If anyone can break it I suppose, it's hawthorn.
 
Big bets TheKanga and im not sure I agree with them :/

Fair enough
Trying to make a profit of 5u on all line bets

Gws one is risky however given Norths inability to beat lesser teams they are right in this.
Essendon are a better side i was actually suprised the line was only two goals.
 

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Fair enough
Trying to make a profit of 5u on all line bets
Gws one is risky however given Norths inability to beat lesser teams they are right in this.
Essendon are a better side i was actually suprised the line was only two goals.

Think it's a bit risky hoping to return 5U on line bets, if your units are indeed 1-2% of your bankroll.
My Max bets are 5U and they are quite rare, 1-2 times a month.

Anyway, I like the GWS at the line but not so sue about the Bombers. Just have a feeling the Tigers turn up this week.
 
The North game was probably the one I was least confident on. GWS have been playing reasonably well up forward lately, i think they could knock out a score of about 70-80 at home with so so north D. Of course North will win so will kick about 100-120. Will be a close one I think.

Hawthorn are going to destroy Melbourne. I honestly can't see the demons kicking more than about 40 against a tight hawks back line. Can hawthorn score more than 130? Maybe, but it goes back to Melbourne playing a defensive game style. Geelong barely punctured 100, Fremantle couldn't, nor Port. If anyone can break it I suppose, it's hawthorn.
Havnt bet on then yet. The kangaroos vs GWS game is in canberra though. Startrack oval IIRC has low scoring games?
 

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