AFL Round 21

[denitofinito]

So you are going on what has happened the last 2 weeks. What makes you think the same thing will happen this week? How about you show us slips when the you have taken the unders but the overs have cashed instead.
Im only gunna say this once.... please leave

Dont be so cruel, hes only just rebuilt his roll after losing it all on the bombers vs cats

 

[Vince Masuka]

Dont be so cruel, hes only just rebuilt his roll after losing it all on the bombers vs cats

And that was after he rebuilt it after getting on Port at 3qtr time against Gold Coast. Certainties!

 

[twarby]

gotta love you guys... complaining about how 'short' all the teams are...

aren't you the mug that rolled all your winnings into Sydney last week?

better check the meaning of unders again Sam Dohzer

 

[carpsi]

mark my words saints to beat the pies

You mouth off like that but dont provide reasons. No good.

 

[dohzer]

there is a marked difference between the games played at the start of the year, and games played at the end of the year... notably that teams are either done and udsted or fighting for survival...

as a general rule, you could EASILY earn your salt doing nothing but backing short price faves after rnd 17 each year...

thats my argument, im sticking with it.... feel free to bet against one of my calls, im all the happier for it... more cash in my pocket...

enjoy life

 

[carpsi]

there is a marked difference between the games played at the start of the year, and games played at the end of the year... notably that teams are either done and udsted or fighting for survival...

as a general rule, you could EASILY earn your salt doing nothing but backing short price faves after rnd 17 each year...

thats my argument, im sticking with it.... feel free to bet against one of my calls, im all the happier for it... more cash in my pocket...

enjoy life

Mug that is all! Do you forget only 2 years ago Stkilda were a very short price to beat Essendon and North in Rounds 20 and 21 and lost both games. You are fried mug

 

[twarby]

You mouth off like that but dont provide reasons. No good.

atleast he showing a bit of life in his post this time

usually he is as boring as bat shit

 

[bisazc887]

Well they arent giving us $8.50 about GC like last time which made the line (from memory)50 or 60 (maybe more) cant remeber as my $ was never in doubt with "the line"...Either way I will be taking GC at the line with anything over 24 HS and yablett back in.

 

[Donkson]

as a general rule, you could EASILY earn your salt doing nothing but backing short price faves after rnd 17 each year...

Round 18 2010 - St Kilda 1.17 lost
Round 18 2010 - Hawthorn 1.37 (OMG VALUE LOL) lost
Round 21 2009 - St Kilda 1.06 lost
Round 20 2009 - St Kilda 1.13 lost
Round 19 2009 - Bulldogs 1.06 lost
Round 18 2009 - Geelong 1.33 lost

 

[TurboBreuster]

After looking at the early lines the only thing that I like at the moment is the Saints +9.5 for the first quarter:

2U STK 1Q +9.5 @1.92 (Sportsbet)
The Saints have only lost one first quarter since round 7, this occurred when they last played the Pies in round 11 when they were down by 3 at qt. Collingwood on the other hand have been slow to get going against other top 8 teams. Their last 5 1st quarter results against top 8 teams have been:
Essendon: lost by 23
Carlton: won by 5
Hawthorn: won by 24
Sydney: won by 8
St Kilda: won by 3.

With the Saints wanting to keep their prospects of a home final strong I am happy to take them with a 9.5 point head start for the first quarter.

 

[bisazc887]

After looking at the early lines the only thing that I like at the moment is the Saints +9.5 for the first quarter:

2U STK 1Q +9.5 @1.92 (Sportsbet)
The Saints have only lost one first quarter since round 7, this occurred when they last played the Pies in round 11 when they were down by 3 at qt. Collingwood on the other hand have been slow to get going against other top 8 teams. Their last 5 1st quarter results against top 8 teams have been:
Essendon: lost by 23
Carlton: won by 5
Hawthorn: won by 24
Sydney: won by 8
St Kilda: won by 3.

With the Saints wanting to keep their prospects of a home final strong I am happy to take them with a 9.5 point head start for the first quarter.

Certainly not without a chance and coll arent playing for qtr time. Wheres this bet at?

 

[twarby]

Certainly not without a chance and coll arent playing for qtr time. Wheres this bet at?

can't people read anymore.
jeez

 

[KardiniaPark]

can't people read anymore.
jeez

I think people see value and then lose their tiny tiny minds.

 

[KardiniaPark]

Oh dear

 

[DESTRUCTOR]

then lose their tiny tiny minds.

I keep mine locked in a vault.

 

[Ferris_rules]

Mug that is all! Do you forget only 2 years ago Stkilda were a very short price to beat Essendon and North in Rounds 20 and 21 and lost both games. You are fried mug

I couldnt agree more!

At this time of the year there are some irrelevant games where top sides will taper off, it wouldnt surprise me to see the Cats/Pies lose a game or two till the end of R24.

If I am not mistaken from your quote, I remember the coach saying at the time he had a specific finals training program in place and hence the losses.

I am interested to see how the bookies compile the odds for the cats/pies R24 game!

Tank @ the Top.

 

[Lensen]

poor misunderstood soho

 

[Nothing]

poor is right.

 

[yamahamoto]

last night Mc Kenan said Zac smith is most likely to be rested this week...

 

[bisazc887]

last night Mc Kenan said Zac smith is most likely to be rested this week...

Be suprised if this week, Derby Mindgames?

 

[Big Jono]

Ive made some money on short price favourites in the last 2-3 weeks, just got to pick your spots.

Jeez im glad I decided not to post them here though if thats the response it gets.

Anywho, will most likely be getting on Stevie Johnson for most goals again this week as its done me well the last couple of times out and away from Skilled Pods shouldnt be as much of a threat. Just got to wait for Betfair to get the market up and running and funded (yea i need another bookmaker i know, getting onto sportsbet soon)

 

[dumb]

i normally lurk and keep my head down since i don't have the expertise of others here, but with short favourites i might have a look at HT margin, 37+. hawks vs port $1.70 at TAB (and maybe better elsewhere?) this week which i will have a go at. last week geelong/GC was $1.65, coll/port was also $1.70.

also thinking saints at the line

 

[DESTRUCTOR]

Freo @ 3.15 screams the bookie's taken too much valium. Sure Carlton are well above Freo, but out west I'd give the Dockers a good chance at this match. When's Sandilands coming back?

Gold Coast seems decent value if Ablett it back, but how will Brown being out affect them?

Sydney also seem value in various markets. No way would I consider Richmond even having a hope of almost anything. And I'm baffled why Richmond are at 3.35.

The Dogs v Essendon, I'll look at Essendon to win but the Dogs seem to do alright at Etihad and 2.15 seems generous.


Thoughts?

 

[Damarus]

Freo @ 3.15 screams the bookie's taken too much valium. Sure Carlton are well above Freo, but out west I'd give the Dockers a good chance at this match. When's Sandilands coming back?

Mundy and Sandilands are both a chance to come back in this week.

 

[midnight_toker]

I thought there was some worrying signs for Saints last Friday. For long periods they looked predictable with the long kick up the right side boundary and they have been "Up" now for about 6 weeks. I feel a North or a Bulldogs at Etihad would have got them last week but they were lucky to have Freo.

Yeah there is shorties that lose in the last few rounds but Saints are due to drop off so I can't see this being an upset. I actually think Pies thrive on beating them. Saints just seemed to have the same feel about them last Friday as Richmond did the week before they went to Darwin. Another result over 39.5 for the pies with them coming of a bye in Adelaide.