Preview AFL Round 22 - Geelong v Western Bulldogs, Simonds Stadium, 1:10PM Sunday 26 August

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AFL Premiership Round 22
Geelong V Western Bulldogs

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Sunday August 26​
Simonds Stadium 1:10 PM (Local Time)​

Round 22 - Geelong vs Western Bulldogs – Simonds Stadium, 1.10pm Sunday 26th August, 2012

In what on paper looks like a gross mismatch, the Bulldogs venture south down the Princes Highway to take on Geelong at Simonds Stadium this Sunday. While the Bulldogs’ season has petered out somewhat with a long injury list being a major reason behind their current nine game losing streak, Geelong on the other hand have had a resurrection of sorts, winning 4 of their last 5 games and losing the other game by less than a goal to the Eagles in Perth after some experts were questioning whether the side would make the top 8 at season’s end. A win here will see Geelong virtually guarantee a spot in finals action for the 6th consecutive season.

The last time these two sides met, the Bulldogs were gallant in defeat, sticking with the more fancied Geelong side for most of the night, getting within 3 points of the Cats in the last term after a burst of 3 goals in 3 minutes, before conceding the final three goals of the night and losing by 20 points. Boyd and Murphy combined for 63 possessions and Jordan Roughead kicked 3 goals for the Dogs, while for Geelong, Johnson and Chapman combined for 63 touches themselves while Hawkins and Motlop chipped in with 3 majors a piece. Will Minson and Orren Stephenson had a terrific battle in the ruck, with Minson shading the Big O with 20 possessions and 32 hitouts, to Stephenson’s 20 possessions and 30 hitouts.

Comparisons

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As you can see from the above table, Geelong and the Bulldogs have been pretty even this season when it comes to total disposals, marks, contested possessions, clearances and contested marks. Where the Bulldogs fall down however is in converting disposal into entries inside 50, and on the scoreboard. While the boys from the Whitten Oval average just on 10 possessions a game more than Geelong, they average 7 less inside 50’s and 5 goals less a game. A lot of this could be explained by a lack of a key target inside 50 for the Dogs. While Geelong average just on 6 more marks inside 50, a lot of those would be taken by the Tomahawk. When you look at the top goalkickers for the league this season, Geelong have six players inside the top 100 (Hawkins with 54 majors, Chapman and Podsiadly with 31, Motlop with 25, Johnson with 18 and Duncan with 17). On the flip side, the 182cm tall Daniel Giansiracusa is the Dishlickers’ leading goalkicker with 27, with Tory Dickson (22) and Higgins (19) the only other Bulldogs in the top 100. Unfortunately for Dogs fans, both Dickson and Higgins both stand around the 180cm mark as well. Their leading goalkicker over 190cm tall is Liam Jones, with a meagre 9 goals from 12 games.

Players to watch

Geelong

Tom Hawkins – This one is a no-brainer. Arguably the most in-form key forward in a game, the Colossus from Corio Bay has continued from where he left off in the 2011 grand final by marking everything in sight and finally kicking straight. In his last 5 full games, he’s taken 42 marks and kicked an accurate 21.11. It would seem that he’ll have Brian Lake keeping him company this Sunday, although Brendan McCartney seems keen to give young Jordan Roughead a go in the backline, so don’t be surprised if the 21yo gets first crack at Hawkins, with Lake waiting in the wings if Hawkins catches fire early.

Steve Johnson – One of the best forwards in the game has taken his game to another level since Chris Scott has moved him into the middle of the ground. In the previous encounter between the two sides, Johnson chalked up 25 kicks, 14 marks and 11 handballs in a performance that should surely earn the 3 votes come Brownlow Medal night. When he focusses on doing the basics and not trying to do the impossible, he can be a match-winner. Rob Murphy went to him last time the two sides played, and it wouldn’t surprise me if the same match-up eventuates this week if Murphy is fit.

Harry Taylor – I chose Harry as a player to watch as it will be interesting to see which end of the ground he lines up at this week. With the Doggies lacking enough key targets up forward, Chris Scott might decide to push Harry forward again, where he’s been quite successful this season, having kicked 12 goals for the season, including a 6 goal haul against the Giants.

Western Bulldogs

Ryan Griffen – In what was a dark afternoon for the Dogs last week against Sydney, Griffen was a rare ray of light, chalking up a club and career high 47 disposals, with over 20 of them contested. His ability to win both contested ball on the inside of a contest, or break the lines with his pace on the outside of a contest makes him very hard to match-up on. It is possible that someone like Taylor Hunt might get the job on him this week, but I’d like to see someone like Jordan Murdoch get the job. Both players are around the same size (Griffen’s 188cm and 86kg while Murdoch is 189cm and 82kg) and both are pretty quick runners too. Could be a good learning experience for the youngster if he’s given the role.

Brian Lake – The last time the Dogs travelled to what was then known as Skilled Stadium, it’s fair to say that Lake had a ‘mare of a game, until he was moved forward late and kicked a couple of junktime goals. However, his season last year was somewhat marred with injury, which might go some way to explain his efforts in that game. At his best, he’s up there with Scarlett as one of the best defenders in the league who cannot only nullify his opponent, but set up attacking thrusts for his side. If he’s given the job on Hawkins, it could be worth the price of admission alone, as both players are superb contested marks.

Daniel Giansiracusa - The veteran Bulldog has had several good games against Geelong over the years. He’s kicked 11 goals against Geelong in his last three outings, including a haul of 5 in the last game he played at Skilled/Simonds. Very intelligent and a good reader of the play, he’ll take some watching. I can see Josh Hunt having first crack at him, with Corey Enright waiting in the wings should he get off the handle early.

Verdict

Every indicator points to a Geelong victory in this game, but if we’ve learnt anything in the past week or so, no game is a dead certainty, especially when a firm favourite takes their opposition easy and takes the foot off the gas, like Adelaide and Collingwood did on Saturday night. In previous weeks, the Bulldogs have been competitive for a half before falling away in the second half. In the last month, the Dogs were trialing the Saints by 24 points at half time (lost by 76), North by 4 (lost by 54), Richmond by 30 (lost by 70) and Sydney by 14 (lost by 82). Geelong need to be on from the get-go this week, as we know the Bulldogs will, and if they’re leading at half-time, it might be the boost they need to go on with the job and break their 9 game losing streak. I can see Geelong jumping out of the blocks like we have in the last month or so, weathering the storm in the 2nd term, and running away with the game in the second half to win by about 12 goals and clinch a finals berth for the 6th consecutive season.
 
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Interesting one - we are currently 0.5 percentage points behind North Melbourne. There's a good chance both teams will win their last two games. There's also a chance one of our teams can finish in 5th, if WCE lose both of their remaining games (v Collingwood and Hawthorn).

Do we put out our best team on Sunday and try to boost our percentage above North's, or do we rest 5-6 players and be happy with a win, preparing ourselves for the Swans game and finals?
 

Footy Smarts

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Interesting one - we are currently 0.5 percentage points behind North Melbourne. There's a good chance both teams will win their last two games. There's also a chance one of our teams can finish in 5th, if WCE lose both of their remaining games (v Collingwood and Hawthorn).

Do we put out our best team on Sunday and try to boost our percentage above North's, or do we rest 5-6 players and be happy with a win, preparing ourselves for the Swans game and finals?

Rest any players that need it. Going above North isn't a necessity because if WCE do drop their last 2 then we will go above them if we win our last 2. That means we'd face WC in Melbourne in the first week which would be ideal. No point going hard this week when we don't have to.

I'd like to see Selwood, Mackie and maybe Johnson or Enright given a week off to freshen up. The dogs are woeful right now. Our VFL team would push them all the way.
 
It depends on what happens the day before, if the Eagles beat the Pies then we need to smash the Dogs to get our % up in case the Eagles lose to the Hawks (we need them 7th not 6th). Perth final is more of a worry than North in Melb.

I think we will probably look at giving a run to a few of the guys pushing for the last 2 or 3 spots, particularly Wojo Smedts and Guthrie as they aren't eligible for the vfl finals starting next week, so good to get them a run with the seniors now. Also not sure if Murdoch is eligible for vfl finals, if he isn't they may need to drop him back for him to get one more game there (for anyone who's interested the magic number is 7, have to have played 7 vfl games to qualify for the finals there).

Orren will come in for Walker if he's right as they'll want to look at 2 rucks, and Bundy should be back. Murdoch and Simpkin deserve another run if possible.

I wouldn't think they'd rest more than maybe 3 or so players-given the Dogs mids are strong but their forwards aren't this might come from our backs-Mackie has played every game so he might be due. I would have thought Poodle deserves a rest but the form Griffen's in doubt they will. Probably the ideal week to freshen Motlop up.
 
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The really big question for R22 is surely the selection (or otherwise) of Varcoe. I like P_O's suggestion of giving Motlop a rest if he's feeling sore but also feel that Varcoe may offer us more running off half-back than half-forward at the moment.

Obviously, if anyone's sore, this is the week to rest them. Nobody is going to miss the Sydney game come hell or high water - in fact, it should be one of the games of the season.
 

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Wasn't there a rule that players could play VFL finals if the seniors were in action that weekend? Or did I just dream it?
 
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Do we have another ruckman close to fitness?

In my opinion we can't be carrying Walker in the finals series purely as a five-minute-per-quarter ruckman, he's just dead weight.

Apparently Stephenson will have tests later in the week and may be fit.

Agree regarding Walker. He has shown promise but clearly isn't read to hold down a forward/ruck position in a top 8 team just yet. No marks or scoring shots on Friday night and just 7 hitouts. We need to decide ASAP whether we're taking West solo into finals or taking a chance on Stephenson as our second ruck.
 
Do we have another ruckman close to fitness?

In my opinion we can't be carrying Walker in the finals series purely as a five-minute-per-quarter ruckman, he's just dead weight.

Orren will be ready this week or next.

TBH he's in decent form, the only issue is whether they want to play West forward for significant parts of the game (much better forward than Orren). But I feel any negative of that is outweighed by not having a poor pinch hitter in there.
 
Orren will be ready this week or next.

TBH he's in decent form, the only issue is whether they want to play West forward for significant parts of the game (much better forward than Orren). But I feel any negative of that is outweighed by not having a poor pinch hitter in there.
Stephenson is fairly handy playing a kick behind the play too, doesn't mind an intercept mark.
 
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If we play West Coast or Freo in our first final you'd assume West and Orren both play. Against Collingwood, Hawthorn or North Melbourne, gambling on West rucking solo would be worth it for the sake of having an extra runner.
 
Wasn't there a rule that players could play VFL finals if the seniors were in action that weekend? Or did I just dream it?

Don't think so.

As far as I'm aware the rule is that guys who have played seniors also have to have played 7 vfl games to qualify for finals (this is to stop clubs flooding the vfl finals with afl players if the afl side misses finals). Unfortunately I think Wojo doesn't make the cut there. Murdoch missed 8 weeks with a finger injury so he may be borderline, or he may have already played 7 or 8.
 
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TBH he's in decent form, the only issue is whether they want to play West forward for significant parts of the game (much better forward than Orren). But I feel any negative of that is outweighed by not having a poor pinch hitter in there.

I think West will be a weapon up there and, as a flow on effect, force the opposition's main ruckman to continually cover the ground to his defensive 50, because West will monster a part-timer at ball ups and throw ins. Interesting thoughts re: VFL finals...does the maximum AFL-listed players quota apply for stand-alone clubs, or is it just for those who are aligned? Because our best VFL team of qualified players will probably only have three who aren't AFL-listed.

This week is a balancing act. Anyone who needs a rest should get a rest, we've got plenty of players who'd be worthy selections, but we should also be trying to win this game by 100 points. A smashing first quarter will set it all up and then just concentrate on not losing a quarter and we'll hopefully go close. The only definite out I would have is Walker if Stephenson or Simpson is right. Then there's a multitude of players who could be rested (Scarlett, Enright, Taylor, Mackie and Stokes would be the main candidates) and obviously several players who could take their place (Wojcinski, Varcoe, Gillies, Brown, Christensen, Horlin-Smith, Smedts etc). If we want Varcoe to be a key part of our finals campaign, we should give him a run (maybe as the sub) in this game.
 
I'm not sure about the quota. VFL website doesn't have any info on it that I can find. Assuming there's no quota you're probably going to see Selwood Gleeson and McLean plus 19 afl listed (if we have that many eligible) although I'd like to fit more vfl guys in.

Agree on the rest, I think two rucks can work and this is the ideal week to try it.

I don't think we should go out specifically to win by 100, just play good footy from the get go. But they have a lot of kids and will tire in the second half so if we have a chance to blow it out we must.

I reckon they'll probably give Varcoe one more then in for Sydney.
 
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Wasn't there a rule that players could play VFL finals if the seniors were in action that weekend? Or did I just dream it?

That's how it works in the local leagues, but I'm pretty sure you'd still have to play the minimum number of games in the twos. Realistically, you'd think the minimum games should drop if both teams are playing. What if someone like Stokes or Motlop, or one of the Hunts was dropped during the finals? Seems a bit silly that they'd be forced to gather dust on the sidelines and jeopardise their chances of making it back into the team, just because they hadn't been dropped previously.
 
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Stephenson is fairly handy playing a kick behind the play too, doesn't mind an intercept mark.

I think Stephenson playing that role and West drifting forward when it's his turn is a good combination. Lake is going to have his hands full with Hawkins so West could really give them problems (as well as Pods obviously).
 
That's how it works in the local leagues, but I'm pretty sure you'd still have to play the minimum number of games in the twos. Realistically, you'd think the minimum games should drop if both teams are playing. What if someone like Stokes or Motlop, or one of the Hunts was dropped during the finals? Seems a bit silly that they'd be forced to gather dust on the sidelines and jeopardise their chances of making it back into the team, just because they hadn't been dropped previously.

It would be rough but that's how it works.

That's why I said Wojo's in a bit of a rough spot because if he misses selection for the first final he can't play vfl finals to press his case, all he can do is train. Same with Guthrie etc.
 

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21.5 Notwithstanding the provisions of Rule 21 when a Club has both of its Senior Grade (AFL or VFL) teams engaged on the same day, (or consecutive days) the selection of players in the VFL Senior Grade team shall be unrestricted, provided a player has participated in at least one (AFL or VFL) Senior Grade or Reserve Grade match in that relevant season.
 
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