Game Day AFL Round 23 - Matchday Discussion Collingwood@Fremantle(Optus Stadium – 4:35PM EST)

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It’s round 23 and both these teams have very different plans for the next month. For Collingwood, it’s time to look towards finals, with a top four spot on the line. For Fremantle, they simply cannot wait for this season to end. Collingwood are coming off a brilliant win, securing a finals spot. For Fremantle, the performance they put on last week was perhaps the worst game they’ve played in their 23 year history, falling to the Cats by 22 goals.

Last time these two met, Collingwood came away with a big win, winning the contest by 61 points.

Collingwood

It’s been a long time coming, but Collingwood are back in the finals for the first time since 2013. While other clubs have had longer droughts, for Collingwood fans it has often felt like an eternity since they’ve been playing in September. However, the job is far from done with a top four spot on the line. Coming into the game against the Power last week, Collingwood’s finals hopes were on the line, and the Magpies put forth one of their best performances of the season, winning by 51 points. Brodie Grundy continued his outstanding season, boosting his chances for All-Australian selection. Adams and Mayne were also crucial in getting Collingwood the win. While Collingwood’s backline is suffering from many injuries, it is quite fortunate that one of the poorest areas of Fremantle’s team is their forward line, meaning it shouldn’t be too much of an issue.

Collingwood has also been rocked by the emerging story of Sam Murray being investigated by ASADA for allegedly taking a recreational drug before game day. The effect this has on the team as a whole will be interesting to see.

The man to watch is Jack Madgen. The 25 year old defender has had a difficult start to his career, having to shoulder a considerable amount of work in the backline. While he hadn’t been too bad for the first couple of games of his career, he truly struggled against the Port forward line. With the likes of Howe, Goldsack, and Moore coming back, he will need to put up a much more improved performance if he wants to retain his spot in the side.


Fremantle

The 2018 season can’t end soon enough for the Dockers. While there have been positive moments throughout the season, Fremantle have also put on some absolutely awful performances, such as their game against Geelong last week. Fremantle were leading at quarter time, but did not kick a goal for the rest of game to give them their biggest loss in their club’s history by whopping 133 points. However, in the 2018 season, after being thrashed by a team, Fremantle have come back to post a win. For example, the Dockers were coming off a 77 point hiding from Richmond, and managed to post a win over the Saints. The Dockers were also coming off back to back 50 point losses and managed to beat Port Adelaide.

If Fremantle want to have a serious chance of winning, they need to seriously boost their attacking output. In the majority of their games that they’ve won this season the Dockers have been much more free flowing, averaging over 100 points scored in their wins. However, as has been seen too far often in Ross Lyon teams, the Dockers go into their defensive shell when teams start to attack, therefore restricting Fremantle from having any chance of scoring themselves. Ross Lyon has made a bunch of changes coming into the game, with star player Walters out with injury, with young players in Nyhuis, Banfield, and Giro omitted.

The men to watch this week are Danyle Pearce and Michael Johnson. These two veterans will be playing their last game in the AFL on Saturday after long careers. Johnson has played 244 games for the Dockers, and has been one of the most reliable defenders in the game. However, injuries and suspect form have forced the defender to call time. For Pearce, his time at the Dockers has been frustrating to say the least, but after transferring from Port Adelaide his leadership presence has been critical in these past few years as this Dockers side rebuilds.

Head to Head odds

Collingwood: $1.15
Fremantle: $5.50

Changes

Collingwood

No Change

Fremantle

IN

Joel Hamling, Darcy Tucker, Ethan Hughes, Sam Switkowski

OUT

Bailey Banfield (Omitted), Ryan Nyhuis (Omitted), Stefan Giro (Omitted), Michael Walters (Injured)


TV

Live on Fox Footy, Commercial Free
Live on Channel 7, WA only.

Radio

3AW
ABC
MMM
SEN

IPTV

AFL Live Pass
Foxtel Now
WatchAFL

The run home…

So, it’s the pointy end of the season, and it’s necessary to see what a loss or win means for Collingwood.


If Collingwood wins

They have top four secured. If West Coast loses, Collingwood go to second. If Hawthorn wins, Collingwood will drop to fourth.

If Collingwood loses

They will drop to as low as sixth. They will not be able to make top four.

Tip

This is a game Collingwood can simply cannot afford to lose. While the Sam Murray incident might affect the morale of the team, the reward of top four will provide motivation to get eth job done.

Collingwood by 24.
 

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Just get the job done.

Collingwood by 23.
 

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Should win, but Freo will want to give a good performance at home to end the year. Not sure how this will play out, could win by under 4 goals, could win by 10. Good thing the players will know a win means top 4 which should be enough to get them to play with desire and not have an eye on finals already.
 
If Hawthorn wins AND we win. We stay third.

Having said that, I have grave fears this ASADA bullshit will derail the remainder of what season we have left.
We may do, but it's not guaranteed at all. Our percentage is better than Hawthorn's by just 0.2% (and we're level on points with them) so they could finish in front of us if both teams win.
 
We may do, but it's not guaranteed at all. Our percentage is better than Hawthorn's by just 0.2% (and we're level on points with them) so they could finish in front of us if both teams win.

Of the 2 winning scenarios (we win and Hawthorn win) which team is more likely to have the bigger win?

Us against Freo? Or Hawthorn against Sydney?

Come on now.
 
Of the 2 winning scenarios (we win and Hawthorn win) which team is more likely to have the bigger win?

Us against Freo? Or Hawthorn against Sydney?

Come on now.
Come on yourself, Ed!! No matter who you think is more likely to have the bigger win it's simply not correct to say that we are guaranteed third spot if we win. It's even possible that we could win by a bigger margin than the Hawks (should both teams win) yet they could still finish above us on percentage. It's just too close between those two sides on % to be sure of anything.

Of course we have a game against a weaker opponent than Hawthorn has, our opponent has nothing but pride to play for while Sydney has a top 4 spot to aim at. I suspect we'll win, we should win by a fair bit, and the Hawks should have a very tough struggle on their hands. I'm also hoping for a surprise result in Brisbane, as we do have a real chance of snaring 2nd spot with a bit of luck. Either way, I'm confident we'll be well placed at the end of the day.
 
If Hawthorn wins AND we win. We stay third.

Having said that, I have grave fears this ASADA bullshit will derail the remainder of what season we have left.

And if Weagles lose we move to 2nd (if we win by a decent margin) which is the best case scenario.

Hopefully the Freo players have had a gutful of Ross Lyon and lay down for another 100point shellacking in protest.

Most overrated coach this century.
 
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If Hawthorn wins AND we win. We stay third.

Having said that, I have grave fears this ASADA bullshit will derail the remainder of what season we have left.
I just re-did the ladder predictor with that scenario, and the winner of GWS-Melbourne will go to fourth.
 
This drug saga was known internally for almost two weeks.

I don't think think a guy who has been at the club for a minute and is not best 22 testing positive to Charlie would derail anything nor will the players notice he isn't at the club lol.

This will be a harder than expected game but Pies by 24-30 points.
 
I just re-did the ladder predictor with that scenario, and the winner of GWS-Melbourne will go to fourth.
If so, you have got something wrong there!!

With the scenario you are referring to, with Collingwood and Hawthorn both winning, those teams would finish on 60 points. West Coast would be on 60 points even if they lose. Neither GWS or Melbourne can reach 60 points, so if Collingwood and Hawthorn both win, top 4 is out of reach for those two sides.
 

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