AFL Round 3

[The Big Woofer]

I am wary about backing my own side as the one thing we all try & avoid is bias.....BUT i will declare the Bulldogs this weekend.

As Jamer said anything above $1.50 is value....Haw will struggle in the ruck, struggle to cover Hall, are not favoured by the venue, have a 6 day break, will most likely lose at least 1 player to suspension, had a gut buster against geelong....I'm not saying Haw aren't a good team, i'm just of the view this week is a bad time to be on their side.

 

[Jammer]

Bulldogs into Swans Double $1000 at $1.72 Sportsbet...

G.L All

 

[GoodesStuff]

odds from sportsbet:

saints 1.53
pies 2.50

north 1.90
wce 1.90

port 1.90
bris 1.90

swans 1.10
tigers 7.00

carl 1.57
ess 2.40

mel 2.60
ade 1.50

dogs 1.57
hawks 2.40

freo 2.50
geel 1.53

 

[mike262]

very good odds this week. my tips are
saints
WCE (bias)
port
swans
essendon
adelaide (just)
dogs (easily)
and leaning freo for some reason

 

[Gift]

Very juicy weekend

 

[The Big Woofer]

Port Adelaide are well over the odds, these guys should be $1.60-$1.65 & you'll get $1.85 the way things are looking.

Small forwards bother brisbane & port gets Robbie Gray back as well this week, Bris loses Brennan.

 

[Gets!]

I have gone for Saints/Swans multi.

Will probably put some $$$ on the doggies too but will just wait that out.

 

[Cuzz09]

e: AFL Round 3

I went with a couple of early week multi's:

North Melbourne 1-39 @ $2.30
Carlton 1-39 @ $2.30
Adelaide 1-39 @ $2.15
Manchester United @ $1.40
Liverpool @ $1.33

$10 to win $211.77

and...

Port Adelaide/Port Adelaide (HT/FT) @ $2.25
Sydney @ $1.07
Adelaide @ $1.47
W.Bulldogs @ $1.50
Manchester United @ $1.40
Liverpool @ $1.33

$10 to win $98.84

$10 on Adelaide to be the highest finishing Non-Victorian team @ $7 while they are off the boil a bit and still plenty of time in the year.

$5 on a North Melbourne Vs West Coast Draw @ $51

Not the biggest bets in the world but something to keep me interested.

*keeping a bit on the side for a dabble at any racing jackpots*

 

[Dr Awkward]

odds from sportsbet:

saints 1.53
pies 2.50

north 1.90
wce 1.90

port 1.90
bris 1.90

swans 1.10
tigers 7.00

carl 1.57
ess 2.40

mel 2.60
ade 1.50

dogs 1.57
hawks 2.40

freo 2.50
geel 1.53

Great betting weekend, some really interesting games, however there's no value that immediately jumps out at me yet.

 

[AhSteveSteve27]

I think Brisbane will smash Port. They beat North at AAMI (who got belted by 104 the next week), they beat WCE with just 37 inside 50s and 20 less possessions. Both North and WCE are truly terrible teams atm and Port haven't been shown to be much better. Bris have a 9-day break, with some players having a very easy game last week (Clark, Black in particular), with a chance to go back to Bris in Round 4 and go 4-0. No way Port will win IMO.

 

[Cuzz09]

I think Brisbane will smash Port. They beat North at AAMI (who got belted by 104 the next week), they beat WCE with just 37 inside 50s and 20 less possessions. Both North and WCE are truly terrible teams atm and Port haven't been shown to be much better. Bris have a 9-day break, with some players having a very easy game last week (Clark, Black in particular), with a chance to go back to Bris in Round 4 and go 4-0. No way Port will win IMO.

Going by that theory brisbane struggled to beat the Eagles in rd 1 - trailed most of the game and only won from 1 good quarter and against Carlton leaked 7 goals in the 3rd pretty easily. Sure they won but their record vs Port @ AAmi isnt too crash hot.

Bringing back Robbie Gray and maybe Motlop will be a big boost for port and the loss of Brennan is big for Brissy.

 

[GoodesStuff]

Sydney / Adelaide +24.5 / Western Bulldogs +24.5 / Geelong +24.5 @ 1.76

^ Looks okay

 

[yeah_nah]

I don't understand anyones logic behind betting on Port.
I think they will struggle with the trip from Perth.
Brisbane had a big break. J Brown is in brilliant form.
Port have been playing pretty average - West Coast were disgraceful and Port kept them in the game..

Ill probably chuck on a multi with Brisbane, St Kilda, Geelong, Carlton and Adelaide
think that roughly works out to be $8.90.

 

[Dr Awkward]

Lots of strong opinions on the Port v Brisbane game!

Not confident to bet on Brisbane at this stage, I still think they are a midfielder or two short and the loss of Brennan and Adcock will hurt. Port actually played quite decently against West Coast although I don't rate many of their players and think they have a fair few passengers, they are slight overs for mine. Having said that Brisbane's forward line is just so good. Not sure if I will bet.

 

[lions_den]

Port will smash us in the clearances and win very comfortably. We struggle with small forwards. I usually don't bet on Brissy games but there looks to be too much value here. Port should be about 1.55-1.60. Won't make a play on anything until we see some lines on sportingbet.

 

[Poizun]

Sydney / Adelaide +24.5 / Western Bulldogs +24.5 / Geelong +24.5 @ 1.76

^ Looks okay

^Very good. Im unloading.

I personally think Adelaide will bounce back and bounce back hard. How often have Melbourne put together a good game of footy in the last 5 years let alone 2 in a row...

 

[Bambino]

Jonathan Brown and Fevola. At the start of the year we were all very excited to see how they would go and they have worked together pretty well. Unsure how Port are going to cover them. I have enough faith in Brisbane's midfield to get the ball up there enough times for them to kick a winning score.

Also, the $1.50 for the Saints is screaming value to me. I know Collingwood rarely put in two bad performances but gees the Saints have been impressive this year

 

[The Big Woofer]

Port will smash us in the clearances and win very comfortably. We struggle with small forwards. I usually don't bet on Brissy games but there looks to be too much value here. Port should be about 1.55-1.60. Won't make a play on anything until we see some lines on sportingbet.

Someone that clearly understands the matchups going in port's favour in this spot.

Port will win this game comfortably.

 

[banana_bus]

Ill be putting whatver is left in my account on Adelaide at the line... they will smack the Dees.

 

[joxstrap]

$100 on Saints to clear the -15.5 line @1.91, seriously easy money

 

[mattys123]

I think the Dogs and the Crows are the best bets of this week, with the Saints not too far behind (hate to say it).

The Dogs basically had a training run lsat week, and will want to atone for their round 1 loss at home, against a Hawks team that is beat up and still missing a few. Might be closer then some think, but the Dogs should win.

I doubt seriously whether Melbourne will play well 2 weeks in a row all year, and last week was Brad Green's 200th, which was more motivation, plus it was against the Pies. Adelaide's season is basicaly on the line here (or at least any hope of top 4 is) so I can't see the Crows dropping this one.

The Saints have an awesome record against the pies, especially Montagna, Riewoldt and Dal Santo, and at Etihad look a good bet. My only concern with Stkilda is they are missing a few (Fisher, Kosi, Clarke) so this may restrict their ability to "thump" the pies like always.

Not touching the Port/Brisbane game, in fact not touching a Port 50/50 game all year, they are going to be unpredicatable to say the least.

Freo/Geelong is an interesting game, both will be missing players, and whether Freo can back up after such a big game last week is the question. Will be a nailbiter, so might take Freo at the line.

Best of luck to all, will be upsets as always, especially in regards to lines.

 

[fredd]

I think the Dogs and the Crows are the best bets of this week, with the Saints not too far behind (hate to say it).

The Dogs basically had a training run lsat week, and will want to atone for their round 1 loss at home, against a Hawks team that is beat up and still missing a few. Might be closer then some think, but the Dogs should win.

I doubt seriously whether Melbourne will play well 2 weeks in a row all year, and last week was Brad Green's 200th, which was more motivation, plus it was against the Pies. Adelaide's season is basicaly on the line here (or at least any hope of top 4 is) so I can't see the Crows dropping this one.

The Saints have an awesome record against the pies, especially Montagna, Riewoldt and Dal Santo, and at Etihad look a good bet. My only concern with Stkilda is they are missing a few (Fisher, Kosi, Clarke) so this may restrict their ability to "thump" the pies like always.

Not touching the Port/Brisbane game, in fact not touching a Port 50/50 game all year, they are going to be unpredicatable to say the least.

Freo/Geelong is an interesting game, both will be missing players, and whether Freo can back up after such a big game last week is the question. Will be a nailbiter, so might take Freo at the line.

Best of luck to all, will be upsets as always, especially in regards to lines.

This reflects my thoughts exactly.

I might also look at essendon this weekend based on their recent form against carlton and the large odds they are currently paying.

Carlton have been made to look better than they are playing a very average Richmond and a flat looking Brisbane who i'm not quite sold on yet either. Missing Judd also makes quite a difference. That being said Essendon did look rather ordinary on the weekend.

 

[mattys123]

Ok. early Round 3 Multi.

1. PORT - WIN
2. SYDNEY; -24.5
3. ADEL - WIN
4. W.BULLDOGS - WIN
5. FREO; +24.5

@ 9.45 per unit.

I know I said I wouldn't touch Port, but 1.91 seems like stupid odds for me for a side at home versus a non top 4 side with injuries.

 

[RoosterLad]

Nice odds there mate.

I have gone off multis a bit as I got sick of the one leg costing me the $$$ but might consider chucking a fiver on a multi each round to see how I go.

 

[Coach Bombay]

Am thinking right now.

St. Kilda -15.5 // Sydney -15 // Adelaide -15 // Western Bulldogs -15 // Geelong -15

@ 18.9