AFL Round 6

[krusher]

^^ I wouldn't touch that game with my neighbours money letalone my own.

Sydney only big value, have beaten Carlton 14 out of last 15 times and Carlton haven't won in Sydney in 18 years! Huge value as Sydney own them and will shut down the run Carlton needs as Sydney do best.

what relevance to the betting do games up to 18 years ago have on this weeks game ?

we clearly had the better of them for 3 quarters in the week one final last year and only ran out of legs after playing catch up footy

its a genuine 50:50 game which the bookies are almost reflecting - sydney are not going that well - good honest team but no certainties this week

would take the 2.05 anyday in a game like this

 

[twarby]

what relevance to the betting do games up to 18 years ago have on this weeks game ?

18 years ago means little, the last 12 months though paint a better picture

bet on Carlton, hopefully the rest of your delusional supporters do, it will get me a better price on the Swans

 

[The_Doctor]

Sydney Vs Carlton is a pretty hard game, either side could win. Ill wait for the teams and take 1-39 on my pick

 

[stuziman]

Lions +4.5 first qtr line at sportsbet is my special for the week. Check out how bad tigers are in qtr 1. Lions have also started pretty well in 3/4 games whereas tigers are 0/5. I can see lions winning this and getting 3-4 up early.

 

[steveq91]

West Coast 1-39
Sydney 1-39
Essendon -67.5
Collingwood -15.5
$10 @ $14.49 on Sportingbet

 

[GoodesStuff]

North Melbourne are way too short. They are a really bad team, their defenders are mostly clueless & its vitually always left to Harvey, Swallow & Wells to win them the game....Petrie back in form helps but Port have 2 good tall defenders whereas the tigers didn't.

Port $2.85 is good value, they are not as hard to read as a lot of people make out, its simple you don't take them when favourites or when they've had a nice win, but you do take them when they've been smashed by the media & their fans & are big underdogs.....Port have a better side than NM & i would not touch the $1.45 Nth Melb.

Port will make some changes & careers will be on the line, expect a much better effort than vs GC......if you forgive 1 week their effort vs Adl was pretty good (1st qtr excluded) whereas i haven't seen NM do much to deserve being such a short priced favourite.

Agree completely TBW.

They are one of the worst $1.45 shots you will see! Those 2 WA trips in the first month will still affect North IMO. They have also just been beaten by Richmond and sit under Gold Coast at the bottom of the AFL ladder

I marked the game North 1.78/Port 2.05.

Port are the bet of the round for mine

 

[Lensen]

Agree completely TBW.

They are one of the worst $1.45 shots you will see! Those 2 WA trips in the first month will still affect North IMO. They have also just been beaten by Richmond and sit under Gold Coast at the bottom of the AFL ladder

I marked the game North 1.78/Port 2.05.

Port are the bet of the round for mine

Reckon you're underrating Richmond as well as North's tough start to the season there.

Richmond and North are almost on the same level I reckon and both ahead of Port - the only bad Richmond losses were to Hawthorn & Collingwood, they've been competitive against St Kilda and Carlton. North led for almost the whole game v Richmond and I daresay it was only the 6 day break from Perth that got them in the end.

Port on the other hand have been terrible against all bar the Crows which is their grand final - along with their ordinary travelling record and I reckon the bookies have got it about right - maybe North slightly unders but in a 100% market that doesn't make Port overs.

GoodesStuff, on that point, why would you rate a game $1.78/$2.05? Surely you'd rate games on a 100% market? If you took "overs" on both sides of your market (say $1.83/$2.10) you're still not making a profit?

 

[twarby]

GoodesStuff, on that point, why would you rate a game $1.78/$2.05? Surely you'd rate games on a 100% market? If you took "overs" on both sides of your market (say $1.83/$2.10) you're still not making a profit?

i too don't understand how he rates his markets

 

[foxy_dal]

Anyone else get an email from Sportsbet like this.

Dear xxxxx,

ARRGH!!, I'm sure you were ready to crack an easter egg over your head as you watched Port Adelaide or Adelaide fall agonisingly short and lose by the narrowest of margins.
But, you're a sportsbet.com.au member! With the help of the AFL & NRL Easter Resurrection offer, your stake has been resurrected as a Free Bet!

Your Free Bet matching your stake has been credited to your account and is valid until midnight, April 30th.



I didn't bet on the Port game and the only bets I placed on the Adelaide game was crows at the line and a few dollars on Tippet/Walker most goals. Got a free $20 bet so thinking it might have been a lucky mistake or maybe everyone who bet on the weekend got one. Not complaining anyway!

 

[GoodesStuff]

i too don't understand how he rates his markets

Pretty simple really...

The bookies don't set their markets to 100% (more like 105%) so I have allowed for this when I frame my markets.

 

[Lensen]

Pretty simple really...

The bookies don't set their markets to 100% (more like 105%) so I have allowed for this when I frame my markets.

But the actual chances of sides winning is still 100%??

You want to be framing markets on actual chances, not including a bookmaker edge. Even framing to 90-95% to allow a margin for error

 

[Gerrard_to_Torres]

Adam Selwood @ $10 for Most Disposals Group B is a nice price tomorrow night.

 

[jefffff34]

Carlton 1-39 are specials.

 

[GoodesStuff]

But the actual chances of sides winning is still 100%??

You want to be framing markets on actual chances, not including a bookmaker edge. Even framing to 90-95% to allow a margin for error

Yeah, nice

I am still new to framing markets (would only do it for AFL as that is where I have my greatest knowledge) so obviously have alot to learn. I might look into opening up a Betfair account next season so that actual markets I am betting on are closer to 100% as well!

 

[The Royal Sampler]

Anyone else get an email from Sportsbet like this.

Dear xxxxx,

ARRGH!!, I'm sure you were ready to crack an easter egg over your head as you watched Port Adelaide or Adelaide fall agonisingly short and lose by the narrowest of margins.
But, you're a sportsbet.com.au member! With the help of the AFL & NRL Easter Resurrection offer, your stake has been resurrected as a Free Bet!

Your Free Bet matching your stake has been credited to your account and is valid until midnight, April 30th.



I didn't bet on the Port game and the only bets I placed on the Adelaide game was crows at the line and a few dollars on Tippet/Walker most goals. Got a free $20 bet so thinking it might have been a lucky mistake or maybe everyone who bet on the weekend got one. Not complaining anyway!

IIRC they were refunding all losing bets on AFL matches where the margin was 6 points or less.

 

[foxy_dal]

IIRC they were refunding all losing bets on AFL matches where the margin was 6 points or less.

Oh ok I thought it was only head to head bets. I didn't have any losing bets of $20 (which is the value of my free bet) so not sure. Put it on Dees +20.5/Blues +31.5/Port +41.5 @2.17.

 

[asanque]

Adam Selwood @ $10 for Most Disposals Group B is a nice price tomorrow night.

Hey Gerrard!

Where have you been this year?

 

[Gerrard_to_Torres]

Hey Gerrard!

Where have you been this year?

Still here lurking about, just haven't had the time. Looking to step it up, starting tomorrow night hopefully!

 

[Ricketts]

Liking:

Sydney 1-39
Melbourne +15.5

 

[Mudeo]

Im going to put Ess 100+ in every multi i have this week going to smash it

 

[TheNextBigThing]

North W2W @ $2.50

 

[5 Bucks]

Every game decided by less than 39.5, except the bombers to be 40+

@7.83

 

[Purrfect Pussies]

West Coast 1-39/Roos -15.5 @ $4.30

 

[Mudeo]

Going a crazy multi this week:

Essendon 100+
Richmond 16+
West Coast Under 39.5
Adelaide Under 39.5
Collingwood 16+
Sydney Under 39.5
@173.5

need a lot to go right but I have a good feeling.
Does everyone else think Essendon can win by 100+ this week?

 

[rowie343]

Have gone eagles over Melbourne yesterday at $1.65. Looks a good bet to me purely on form and the home ground advantage. Value enough.