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AFL Round 7

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ALDI why dont you think Essendon will win by 10 Goals this week? West Coast are ok but they havent got near a decent team have they?

WC have won four of the last 5 against us



they have only beaten shit teams so far, but they have looked good in each match they have played, theres no reason to think they won't be competitive this week.. i think the books have us too short
 
WC have won four of the last 5 against us



they have only beaten shit teams so far, but they have looked good in each match they have played, theres no reason to think they won't be competitive this week.. i think the books have us too short

Totally agree. Don't necessarily think the eagles will win but $1.18 for essendon win seems way too short.
 

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I like:

Freo/WB @ 2.40

Freo/WB/Hawks @ 2.83 (For those like soho, add in Geel and Bris if you please - I dont!)

Might also look at the saints with the + line (depending on what it is). Carlton have only scored 70-80 points in their last 4 matches, and Id reckon the saints will get 50-60 themselves. If its around 20 Ill have a look.

Otherwise, maybe carlton 1-39 is a good play.
 
Have been looking at the form at the Hawthorn vs Port Adelaide game, and the Power have a great record over the Hawks in the last couple of years. They have beaten them in three of the last four games they have played in the 2 years prior. The only loss being an 11 point defeat in Melbourne. now by no means do I think that Port Adelaide will beat the Hawks due to this, I simply found it interesting and has meant that I will now steer clear of betting in this game unless someone can explain how the Hawks have lost to the Power 3 times in 2 years.

You should steer clear because these are the two most dysfunctional teams in the AFL.
 
You should steer clear because these are the two most dysfunctional teams in the AFL.

Agreed, a touch harsh throwing the hawks in the same basket as Port but I understand the point which I think you are making which is that you cant take hawthorn at points with any confidence. Id rather take the $1.18 in a multi for the hawks as that is a good thing rather than thinking they will cover a 20 odd point margin because you just dont know with them.
 
This round I am going to try to make only 4-5 plays. My only one so far is:

3U The Brisbane Clippers -11.5 1Q @1.92 (Sportsbet)
They have only lost the 1Q at the line once this year. While GC will be much better than last week, a 2 goal line will be far to easy for one of the best 1q teams in the AFL to cover v a team like the GC.
 
Hathorn are lazy and Sydney are ok but my statement stands - they havent beaten anyone. They wont get near Essendon IMO.

No offence mate but your statement doesn't stand - you said West Coast haven't been close to a decent side and we have, twice.

Now you're saying we haven't beaten a decent side and I would agree with that, but it wasn't your original point.

Happy punting.
 
This round I am going to try to make only 4-5 plays. My only one so far is:

3U The Brisbane Clippers -11.5 1Q
They have only lost the 1Q at the line once this year. While GC will be much better than last week, a 2 goal line will be far to easy for one of the best 1q teams in the AFL to cover v a team like the GC.

Where is this through?
 

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Brisbane more goals than behinds. Every GC opponent this season has covered this. Essendon were $2 last week regarding this :eek:. With GC lazy inexperienced crap defense, there will be more goals kicked from the goal square than anywhere else.
 
I'd be staying well away from using Hawthorn as an anchor in any multi...... Yep Port are a rabble but remember they still turned over Adelaide at home.....Hawks got rolled there last year they return for
a no doubt cold slippery night game without there best backman and
i highly doubt they will risk one of their few line breakers in Rioli.....
throw in Adelaide is a graveyard for Hawthorn........
I honestly think $5.60 Port on betfair is about $2.00 overs
 
To be honest, I agree, Im a Hawthorn supporter and even I am sceptical about Hawthorn beating Port. If I were a gambling man I would be inclined to throw a couple on Port at those odds.
 
Brisbane more goals than behinds. Every GC opponent this season has covered this. Essendon were $2 last week regarding this :eek:. With GC lazy inexperienced crap defense, there will be more goals kicked from the goal square than anywhere else.
I like your thought process. Weather is for a "possible shower" at this stage. I'm on @ $1.72.
 

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Melbourne come off Perth Road trips OK. Probably because they write off the Perth games and don't put in any effort.

Bailey's plan however, to thrash them on the training track as punishment after a road trip to Perth could spell :eek:
 
No offence mate but your statement doesn't stand - you said West Coast haven't been close to a decent side and we have, twice.

Now you're saying we haven't beaten a decent side and I would agree with that, but it wasn't your original point.

Happy punting.

Yeah sorry I thought id originally said they havent beaten a decent side. My bad. It does remain to be seen if the hawks/swans are decent teams...
 
Am i the only one who thinks GC with a 44.5 point head start @2.10 is pretty good value?

Bock back brings the margin in considerably but from what I've seen of Brisbane thus far they're actually a reasonable team despite their winless record.

Make no mistake, Brisbane will win this game and I would suggest they will want to HAMMER the GC considering they have nothing but pure hatred for those "mercenaries" in Brennan and Rischitelli.

They will not relent across the four quarters.

I actually backed Essendon at the line of -111.5 last weekend and reckon that the line this week is about right... if anything I will be getting on the -44.5 for Brisbane.
 
You would think Gold Coast would want to redeem themselves after their mediocre effort against Essendon. Then you factor in the fact they are playing their main rival in brisbane, i just don't see it being a blow out.
 

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AFL Round 7

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