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AFL Round 8

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1 unit freo at 4.80 luxbet - freo are a bit underrated for mine and overs here. have beaten the cats and the saints win is looking pretty good now. hawks still shaky for mine against teams that aren't terrible

2 units Ess @ $1.535 (Pinny) - stupid value for mine. They should be $1.20. Richmond have been competitive against WCE (who Essendon then belted), then beat Port and an out of form Goodesless Swans and they're $2.60 vs Essendon who are flying? Silly value

1 unit Adel @ $3.25 (TAB) - value here, would almost be favourites for mine if T.Walker was playing and it wasn't at Docklands. Obviously it is at Docklands and Walker is out, so they should be outsiders, but not this much IMO

1 unit St K @ 3.35 (Tatts) - good record at Subi and in good form. Value
 
Boys,

What you think of this one?

Goldcoast+39.5. $1.65 Think they will be pumped up after losing to GWS last week. Cant believe westernbulldogs won. They were playing out of their skins. Dont rate Bulldogs forward line or backline.

Adelaide+24.5. $1.65 Think Carlton will come out firing but dont think they have the confidence to smash teams like the start of the season. Worried about walker late withdrawal but think that Adelaide midfield is firing and they are up and about. I think a goal will split this game.

Sydney. $1.09 No explanation needed.

Collingwood 1-39. $2.40. Think there is value in this bet. Couple of points have separated all their encounters over the past 2 years. Lot of pressure on Geelong to show form after media critism while Collingwood are coming into form so i think they will be better team.

Multi Pays $7.

Think the only real worry is collingwood 1-39. Thoughts?
 

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talent_scout said:
Boys,

What you think of this one?
Click to expand...


Eagle_Scout_3112730513_24cd35a882.jpg
 
talent_scout said:
Boys,

What you think of this one?

Goldcoast+39.5. $1.65 Think they will be pumped up after losing to GWS last week. Cant believe westernbulldogs won. They were playing out of their skins. Dont rate Bulldogs forward line or backline.

Adelaide+24.5. $1.65 Think Carlton will come out firing but dont think they have the confidence to smash teams like the start of the season. Worried about walker late withdrawal but think that Adelaide midfield is firing and they are up and about. I think a goal will split this game.

Sydney. $1.09 No explanation needed.

Collingwood 1-39. $2.40. Think there is value in this bet. Couple of points have separated all their encounters over the past 2 years. Lot of pressure on Geelong to show form after media critism while Collingwood are coming into form so i think they will be better team.

Multi Pays $7.

Think the only real worry is collingwood 1-39. Thoughts?
Click to expand...

Very wary of the Adelaide bet, i think the Blues will win quite well. Result will be a bit like the Hawks vs Crows match imo
 
Crows playing in Melbourne minus the Coleman leader against what should be an angry Carlton. Surely Jamieson and Henderson can double team Tippett to 1.4 Blues all day long for me.

My only bet thus far is:

2u North Melbourne @$1.47 IAS. We played our sofest, worst most inept game in years yet lost by less than 3 goals. The Dogs nearly led the Pies at 3/4 time the week before so not a bad formline. We have a good record against Port at AAMI and a couple of kids out/slightly more experienced ins will help. If I lose this bet we probably get a new coach, so win win.
 
People know how to stop Carlton now. They rely on their receivers. Have no doubt the crows will be trying exactly what stk tried last week: contested footy all day, no free space. It's just whether they can do it all day like stk did and whether they can score enough when they have it.

From a punting POV, what odds do you take they can?
 
talent_scout said:
Boys,

Collingwood 1-39. $2.40. Think there is value in this bet. Couple of points have separated all their encounters over the past 2 years. Lot of pressure on Geelong to show form after media critism while Collingwood are coming into form so i think they will be better team.
Click to expand...

Errrr :confused:
 
Early thoughts on a multi to set up the weekend.

Coll 1-39
North
Hawks

@4.23

Unsure whether North will dominate or just win. Otherwise could go.

Coll 1-39
Nth 1-39
Hawks

@6.48
 
Duritz said:
People know how to stop Carlton now. They rely on their receivers. Have no doubt the crows will be trying exactly what stk tried last week: contested footy all day, no free space. It's just whether they can do it all day like stk did and whether they can score enough when they have it.

From a punting POV, what odds do you take they can?
Click to expand...

Not many have pointed out to the Blues having only a full 5 day break bw games and that this is their 3rd consecutive week at the Dome?
 

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Lenny29 said:
1 unit freo at 4.80 luxbet - freo are a bit underrated for mine and overs here. have beaten the cats and the saints win is looking pretty good now. hawks still shaky for mine against teams that aren't terrible

2 units Ess @ $1.535 (Pinny) - stupid value for mine. They should be $1.20. Richmond have been competitive against WCE (who Essendon then belted), then beat Port and an out of form Goodesless Swans and they're $2.60 vs Essendon who are flying? Silly value

1 unit Adel @ $3.25 (TAB) - value here, would almost be favourites for mine if T.Walker was playing and it wasn't at Docklands. Obviously it is at Docklands and Walker is out, so they should be outsiders, but not this much IMO

1 unit St K @ 3.35 (Tatts) - good record at Subi and in good form. Value
Click to expand...

Freo $4.80 at Luxbet? I just got on them at $5.15 through Lux :confused:

Also got on the Crows at $3.10.
 
Duritz said:
I'm not so sure 5 day breaks are as bad as people make out. Much worse is the 14 day break, IMO.
Click to expand...
No chance. It can be the difference between a player making a full recovery or entering a match sore.

How often do top four teams who win week one of the finals end up winning the PF after a 14 day break? A hell of a lot - over 75%, I'd say without researching it.

It's also worth noting Carlton's short term fixture. They played St. Kilda on Monday night, then they play the following weeks on Sunday, Saturday, Friday and Thursday. Back to back six day breaks are a nasty draw, let alone back to back to back to back six day breaks.
 
Duritz said:
Top four teams who win week 1 often win the prelim for the e act reason they won week 1: they're better. I've seen plenty of prelims where the team with the week off has not performed to their best.
Click to expand...

agree. long breaks can destabilise / leave the team flat
 

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Lenny29 said:
1 unit freo at 4.80 luxbet - freo are a bit underrated for mine and overs here. have beaten the cats and the saints win is looking pretty good now. hawks still shaky for mine against teams that aren't terrible

2 units Ess @ $1.535 (Pinny) - stupid value for mine. They should be $1.20. Richmond have been competitive against WCE (who Essendon then belted), then beat Port and an out of form Goodesless Swans and they're $2.60 vs Essendon who are flying? Silly value

1 unit Adel @ $3.25 (TAB) - value here, would almost be favourites for mine if T.Walker was playing and it wasn't at Docklands. Obviously it is at Docklands and Walker is out, so they should be outsiders, but not this much IMO

1 unit St K @ 3.35 (Tatts) - good record at Subi and in good form. Value
Click to expand...

All good bets IMO, though I didn't get the same. All 1U.

Fremantle over Hawthorn @ 4.3
St. Kilda over West Coast @3.4
Collingwood over Geelong @ 1.72
Essendon -13.5 over Richmond @ 2
Adelaide over Carlton @ 3.1

Tempted to go in harder on Fremantle, especially now the odds are out to 4.8
 
Multi A $6.97
NM -15.5
ESS -12.5
BRIS -30.5

North Melbourne -15.5
They are better than last week, maybe they got ahead of themselves and thought they could coast against the Dogs, who knows...It won't happen again this week. They have beaten Port 3/4 at Aami and 5/6 overall the last few years. You would dare say that they have improved and Port have gone the other way. I think that line is more than generous and if they want to be taken seriously they should be putting a team like Port away by 6 goals plus.

Essendon -12.5
As usual people (the media) seem to be getting carried away with Richmond. That game was there for the taking last week, to their credit they did win but the Swans are flat and they only did what was expected in my eyes. They were also outscored after 1/4 time... Essendon have been nothing but impressive and will put them away with ease. I think this game will show the difference between the top 6 and the next tier.

Brisbane -30.5
The Giants have been to Tasmania, Adelaide, Canberra and Melbourne in their short 7 week History. Now they have to hop on another plane to Brisbane. I think this week might be the breaking point for them. These kids just aren't used to the rigors of this kind of travel and aches and pains of being professional footballers. It wouldn't surprise me to see a few of them rested after last weeks heroics as I can see a few of them coming to the end of their tether.

By no means are the Lions a good team, it's just that they are just in the right place at the right time. Their forward structure is good enough to kick some goals, in particular is Brown can get off the leash. Their midfield should give them enough chances to score fairly heavily and I think the Giants might be in a bit of trouble.
 
X_box_X said:
No chance. It can be the difference between a player making a full recovery or entering a match sore.

How often do top four teams who win week one of the finals end up winning the PF after a 14 day break? A hell of a lot - over 75%, I'd say without researching it.

It's also worth noting Carlton's short term fixture. They played St. Kilda on Monday night, then they play the following weeks on Sunday, Saturday, Friday and Thursday. Back to back six day breaks are a nasty draw, let alone back to back to back to back six day breaks.
Click to expand...

That is nasty, and also would never have happened before I'd wager. Playing Monday back through to Thursday over 5 rounds! Ouch. Money to be made on (agin) the Blues.
 
has anyone studied or got info in relation to breaks this season - especially when it is significant ie with Carlton/Adelaide this week.

Not sure historial line betting data is easy to find, but erhaps even better is the track record for the season on teams with a significantly shorter break covering the spread?

Adelaide, being solid dogs with the points seems like such a good bet.
 

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