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AFL Round 8

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i think Brisbane -25.5 is a very good bet, the general trend of the new teams has been a big effort followed by a somewhat flat/tired effort the next week, Bris handled GC with ease & i think they'll do the same to GWS.....its just such a big ask for these kids to back up after a win like that.
 
The Big Woofer said:
i think Brisbane -25.5 is a very good bet, the general trend of the new teams has been a big effort followed by a somewhat flat/tired effort the next week, Bris handled GC with ease & i think they'll do the same to GWS.....its just such a big ask for these kids to back up after a win like that.
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I agree with this... there's a big variance between top and bottom for these new teams, and the bottom very often follows the top, and vice versa.
 
Likely TAB odds when they open at 12.00 today

Collingwood $1.75
Geelong $2.05

Port Adelaide $2.70
North Melbourne $1.45

Hawthorn $1.18
Fremantle $4.75

Sydney $1.09
Melbourne $7.00

Western Bulldogs $1.15
Gold Coast $5.25

Essendon $1.50
Richmond $2.55

Brisbane $1.15
GWS $5.25

Carlton $1.30
Adelaide $3.45

West Coast $1.38
St. Kilda $3.00
 
Duritz said:
I agree with this... there's a big variance between top and bottom for these new teams, and the bottom very often follows the top, and vice versa.
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we agree on this point:thumbsu:

perfect example is last year GC beat Port then next week are 100 points down @ HT.
 

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Adelaide can beat Carlton even without Walker, they have the extra break + they should have beaten them at the dome last year but got screwed by umpires, the $3.45 Crows is very good value.
 
5 Bucks said:
P
Essendon will rip Richmond to bits in a clinic. The Tiges can't play 4 quarters, Essendon are in white hot form. Bomber has this team playing supreme footy.
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I'll bite. How many clubs do play '4 quarters'?

In our last 2 games we have been up 61-14 and 49-9 in the 2nd quarters respectively. Unless you expect 100 point floggings of teams with a combined maximum loss of 25 to that point in the season, of course it was going to even out a bit.

In both games we closed it out early and kicked clear when the opposition threatened to challenge.

I agree that Essendon should be favourites, but rip us to shreds? If the Blues, Hawks, Pies, Eagles in form, Cats and Swans couldn't do it, I don't think Essendon will either.

They've had a fair bit of luck in getting the opposition at the right times IMO. Still a very good side, but not quite as good as their results suggest.

Their wins over North, Port and Gold Coast were less than impressive. Beat Carlton as they often do, smashed Brisbane who are rubbish especially away from home, lost Anzac day just but the Pies aren't great this year, and smashed an Eagles team missing half their side and forced to activate the sub very early.

Not as good a record as it seems on paper.

Richmond are value if they get out to $3+ in this one.
 
Eagle was one man down against Richmond from 2nd quarter yet they still beat Richmond.
 
Collingwood -4.5 and North Melbourne -14.5 at the line look the obvious picks this far out. Also think that Gold Coast +32.5 is also a good option.

As for Bris v BWS too early to tell this far out. Been reading a couple of posts and agree that BWS might be flat after an emotional high from their first win but Brisbane -30.5 am not confident about that.

All lines are current Centrebet
 
Adelaide and Gold Coast for me this round.

Another team to show the Handbaggers how they should attack the footy. Soft as butter and wont be able to handle it when the prssure is put on as usual.

GC @ 5.50. I would give them a sneaky chance against a team without a forward line. I think $5.50 is overs.

Maybe GWS as well. You would think that Sheedy and Williams would have learned from GC last year, they would have seen the GC and Bris games as winnable games and would have marked them in the calendar. As we saw last week and last year these new teams have to pounce on the weaker teams in the AFL, GC beat Port, Richmond and Brisbane, 3 teams who really struggled last year. You would imagine that GWS would target Melbourne, GC (tick) and Brisbane this year as 3 winnable games to get up for.
 
Vod Ka Nockers said:
Adelaide and Gold Coast for me this round.

Another team to show the Handbaggers how they should attack the footy. Soft as butter and wont be able to handle it when the prssure is put on as usual.

GC @ 5.50. I would give them a sneaky chance against a team without a forward line. I think $5.50 is overs.

Maybe GWS as well. You would think that Sheedy and Williams would have learned from GC last year, they would have seen the GC and Bris games as winnable games and would have marked them in the calendar. As we saw last week and last year these new teams have to pounce on the weaker teams in the AFL, GC beat Port, Richmond and Brisbane, 3 teams who really struggled last year. You would imagine that GWS would target Melbourne, GC (tick) and Brisbane this year as 3 winnable games to get up for.
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Oh how soon they forget :o Try not to let the offended get in the way of punting :thumbsu:

I also think GC are great value this week.
 
Ha no Collingwood we soft as butter that night. The games were the other team has been harder at the ball than Carlton they have won or got close (see Essendon, St. Kilda and Fremantle when they decided to show up). I just think that Adelaide are a overs @ 3.15 for how well they have been playing.
 

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Sunny_ said:
Doggies seemed to go okay last week without a forward line. ;) Aren't they getting Jones back this week?
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How often is Tory Dickson going to kick 4 goals? I dont think it is possible that GC play any worse than what the Kangas against the Dogs. I was watching it with my mate who is a Kangas supporter and he said that is the worst he has seen them play in a long time.
 
Didn't watch the Kangas/Dogs game, so cannot comment. I guess it's just difficult to see us winning outright. Suns haven't won a match in 14 rounds so it sort of saps the confidence. You'd be game to pick them head to head. ;) Always happy to hear support though! :D
 
Sunny_ said:
Didn't watch the Kangas/Dogs game, so cannot comment. I guess it's just difficult to see us winning outright. Suns haven't won a match in 14 rounds so it sort of saps the confidence. You'd be game to pick them head to head. ;) Always happy to hear support though! :D
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You'll beat the GWS in the return bout.
 
I think WCE at home for $1.39 is a good price

I saw the best of the saints first hand but WCE at home are a force and should account imo

Add in the extra days brake also
 
Saints, GC & Fremantle for me.

Already put 1 on Fremantle.

There has to be a chance that some of the WC guys will miss another week, or that Priddis might. If they do then West Coast will slide out. I'll probably get on Saints while they're longer.
 

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Have to back Cap'n Pugwash. Saints are real value at $3+, won last two at Subi, Eagles with no real forward line left and Watters will make sure they're up for it.

Pies, NM, Ess, StK for $11.50.
 
JuddsABlue said:
I think WCE at home for $1.39 is a good price

I saw the best of the saints first hand but WCE at home are a force and should account imo

Add in the extra days brake also
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I agree. And if the Eagles drift from $1.39 I'll be all over it. A lot of people seem to be chasing value from the upsets after last week, I'm expecting a more predictable round like the first 6.
 
Power House said:
I agree. And if the Eagles drift from $1.39 I'll be all over it. A lot of people seem to be chasing value from the upsets after last week, I'm expecting a more predictable round like the first 6.
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Nearly worth jumping all over it now.
West coast will get back nic Nat,schofield,selwood and priddis will be ok, not sure about smith....NN is the one, they instantly control the stoppages with NN playing.
 
just popping to say that on sportsbet adelaide are paying 2.95 against carlton. seem like they are way overs at that.

carlton are 1.4
 
free at last said:
Nearly worth jumping all over it now.
West coast will get back nic Nat,schofield,selwood and priddis will be ok, not sure about smith....NN is the one, they instantly control the stoppages with NN playing.
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doesn't priddis have to miss a week mandatory?

they were saying he would misss 'On the couch' (or AFL 360)
 

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