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AFL Round 8

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Normally just stick to SC bets but this stands out to me. Good weekend last week going 4-3 and the 3 unit play on Cox just getting up by a few points! 19-11 +9.64 units.

2 units Sidebottom over Bartel in DT @ 1.88. Sidebottom has been incredibly consistent in his last 5 games scoring between 109 and 117 in all 5 games. In the same period of time Bartel is averaging 87 with a high of 108 (this includes missing last week). On Centrebet you can get Beams $2.40 Sidebottom $2.60 Bartel $3.30 in a trio so this also agrees with my thoughts.
 

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0.25u hawthorn lowest score of the round @ 51

it's vs freo, the new st kilda, and its at aurora stadium, one of the lowest scoring grounds.
 
I don't know why Centerbet name their promotion "The Hour of Power". Their Friday special never lasts more than five minutes, let alone for the full hour. I was lucky enough to get on their promotion just minutes ago. $4 on Pendlebury to get 30 or more disposals tonight.

1) He's averaging 29.6 disposals per game this year. Well, that's rounded off to thirty (i.e. you can't get 29.6 disposals, it's either 29 or 30).
2) His average is lowered due to the unusually successful job Carrazzo did on him a few weeks ago.
3) 2/3 games last year, Pendles got 30+ V Geelong.
4) 4/7 games this year he has made the cut. Two of his failures were 29 possession games.
5) 15/25 games last year he managed 30+ possessions, including his final six games.
6) The odds are a ridiculous $4 when I'd argue he is more likely than not to cover the line tonight.

Come on, Pendles!!
 
Coll U39
North U39
Haw U39
Syd O16

$5 @ 14.19

return $70.95

Pretty confident, just did a small multi to cover this multi hopefully, although this one below probably has more chance.

Coll +15.5pts (line)
Hawks WIN
North O16
Sydney (was meant to be over 16 but silly me didn't do it)

$50 @ 3.14

return $157.00
 
2u on dawes < 1 goal DNB @ 1.95
has not kicked over 1 goal this year and has kicked no goals on 3 occasions. watch me play him into form ;)
 
Good reasoning.... and I might add it makes me happier about the big bet I've had on Freo the line +29.5.

Seems like a good bet doesn't?

The bookies giving frekilda(stingiest defense going round) a 5 gl head start, I'm betting on it too.

For the first time in 2012 I could actually see our forward line starting to function.
 
My 'For the love of God I need a win' Multi

COLLINGWOOD @ 1.65
FREMANTLE (Handicap +29.5) @ 1.91
SYDNEY @ 1.08
WESTERN BULLDOGS @ 1.15
ESSENDON (Handicap -12.5) @ 1.91
CARLTON @ 1.45

10.84 - mmm, juicy.
 

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My 'For the love of God I need a win' Multi

COLLINGWOOD @ 1.65
FREMANTLE (Handicap +29.5) @ 1.91
SYDNEY @ 1.08
WESTERN BULLDOGS @ 1.15
ESSENDON (Handicap -12.5) @ 1.91
CARLTON @ 1.45

10.84 - mmm, juicy.

Hawks to win by 30 (as Freo like to stuff people up :p)
 
Essendon at the line (12.5 and 15.5)
North H2H and at the line
Freo at the line (and more importantly PYOL out to 48.5)

If these 3 lose you won't be hearing much from me for a while.....
 

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Tonight

Collingwood Win (Large bet for me)

Scott Pendulbury to beat Swann and Selwood in Dream Team @ $2.80

Fun Bets ($1 on each)

FGS Sidebottom and Pies 1-39 @ $51
FGS Shaw and Pies 1-39 @ $61
FGS Blair and Pies 1-39 @ $33
FGS Goldsack and Pies 1-39 @ $44
FGS Thomas and Pies 1-39 @ $51
 
My 'For the love of God I need a win' Multi

COLLINGWOOD @ 1.65
FREMANTLE (Handicap +29.5) @ 1.91
SYDNEY @ 1.08
WESTERN BULLDOGS @ 1.15
ESSENDON (Handicap -12.5) @ 1.91
CARLTON @ 1.45

10.84 - mmm, juicy.

You better hope Carlton pull their finger out cause Adelaide aren't exactly chumping out.
 
Loaded up?? Good luck...

Nah mate, bit long in the tooth for loading up, still the standard 8-10 unit outlay this week, just figure if I drop into negative territory for the year I may contribute a little less until the confidence that what I am posting here is reasonable returns.
 

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