AFL round 9

[cam]

Carlton now at $1.41 on Sportingbet. It looks so good I'm suspicious.

 

[Lensen]

I'm having a shocking year, and have totally re-considered by staking methods as I'm betting too high a % of my bank. Instead of trying to win stupid amounts of money I'm just giong to try and be super disciplined and have a modest goal to turn a profit for the rest of the year.

With that in mind, my bets for the week are:
$40 on Carlton @ $1.41
$20 on Adelaide @ $2.20
$20 on Fremantle @ $2.16 (roughly)
$10 on North Melb @ $4.17 (roughly)

Will also look at $20 on the Betstar $2 line on Friday arvo for West Coast.

Also have a couple of $50 LMS freebets I'll use this week, one on the Pies over 24.5 @ $4.20 and also the Blues over 39.5 @ $3.15 (which I think is ridiculous)

 

[mike262]

i really like gee/coll over (hoping around 200 points)
and sydney win

if they do good on sunday im leaning
carlton line
Brisbane win
west coast win

Edit: west coast 1-39 at 2.60 looks better than h2h

 

[tarky]

Also have a couple of $50 LMS freebets I'll use this week

how'd you get those from lms? i've never received a free bet in my life, not sure what i'm doing wrong

 

[Lensen]

how'd you get those from lms? i've never received a free bet in my life, not sure what i'm doing wrong

From being knocked out. They sent me an email saying deposit $30 and get a free bet.

Strange way to get a free bet out of them though - I have a credit facility with them!

 

[Walshy_The_Goat]

I know this probably isn't the right thread to be asking this, but i'm just wondering how 'Handicap' betting works as i've only just discovered it.

Here is an example using this weeks Handicap odds offered by Sportingbet:

E.g. Collingwood +24.5 @ 1.40 vs Geelong +24.5 @ 1.22

Now, does this work the same as line betting that is typically given to underdogs in each match, given the margins offered are positive? The Cats are obviously favourites given they are offering slightly lower odds.

Thus, for the bet to be successful, does this mean that Geelong have to either WIN the match outright or come within 24.5 points of Collingwood in the case of an upset?

 

[asanque]

I know this probably isn't the right thread to be asking this, but i'm just wondering how 'Handicap' betting works as i've only just discovered it.

Here is an example using this weeks Handicap odds offered by Sportingbet:

E.g. Collingwood +24.5 @ 1.40 vs Geelong +24.5 @ 1.22

Now, does this work the same as line betting that is typically given to underdogs in each match, given the margins offered are positive? The Cats are obviously favourites given they are offering slightly lower odds.

Thus, for the bet to be successful, does this mean that Geelong have to either WIN the match outright or come within 24.5 points of Collingwood in the case of an upset?

Exactly right

Best used for bets where you are sure a team will either win, or not lose by very much. Of course the odds you get are generally pretty low. I tend to use the 24.5 line quite often.

 

[Walshy_The_Goat]

Exactly right

Best used for bets where you are sure a team will either win, or not lose by very much. Of course the odds you get are generally pretty low. I tend to use the 24.5 line quite often.

Thanks for the clarification, mate.

Do you mind me asking if you've had much success with it, as it seems quite easy in theory, given you'd get some decent odds if you multi'd a couple up.

 

[asanque]

Thanks for the clarification, mate.

Do you mind me asking if you've had much success with it, as it seems quite easy in theory, given you'd get some decent odds if you multi'd a couple up.

I don't tend to multi up the 24.5 lines unless its for a pretty small bet.

My strategy is to look for value 24.5 lines of around 1.60, multi-up at most 2, and then hit it hard.

Had reasonable success this year.

Most recently on Blues v Saints and also on Freo v Brisbane.

 

[The BRICKSTER]

Guys me and a mate looking at putting $100 on this multi, would love to know your thoughts

cats under 39.5
dogs
saints
blues over 15.5

@8.58

input would be much appreciated thanks

 

[lions_den]

Guys me and a mate looking at putting $100 on this multi, would love to know your thoughts

cats under 39.5
dogs
saints
blues over 15.5

@8.58

input would be much appreciated thanks

I think Coll and WC will win. Sorry.

 

[Danny MacGill]

Guys me and a mate looking at putting $100 on this multi, would love to know your thoughts

cats under 39.5
dogs
saints
blues over 15.5

@8.58

input would be much appreciated thanks

I'd be worried about the Geelong game and can't touch the Saints on a big oval with not much form.
Would be throwing in the Port -8.5 as should destroy Melbourne who are no good away from the 'G'.

I've had a look at the weather forecast and going to be wet in Sydney, Perth and Darwin so they look like being low scoring games.

My multi is Carlton -18.5 which looks an absolute cert, into Port -8.5.
Around $3.60
Dogs should win but not much value, was keen on Essendon earlier in week but dreamtime game so won't touch it.

 

[foxy_dal]

Just updating this from the round 5 thread.

Also teams the week after playing St. Kilda:

Sydney beat Adelaide comfortably
North got over the line against West Coast by 4 goals
Collingwood pumped Hawthorn
Fremantle...well I dare say the trend will continue

This happened last year for the first 10 rounds as well until Collingwood broke the streak.

Round 2: Sydney def Adelaide
3: North def West Coast
4: Collingwood def Hawthorn
5: Fremantle def Richmond
6: Port Adelaide def Adelaide
7: Bulldogs def Melbourne
8: Carlton def Port Adelaide
9: Essendon ??? Richmond


Very good chance will continue and also a good chance the streak will end in round 10 again with West Coast playing Carlton in Melbourne next week.

 

[Commando]

might have a nibble on the hawks at 3.00....or am i just a sucker for punishment?

 

[cam]

Guys me and a mate looking at putting $100 on this multi, would love to know your thoughts

cats under 39.5
dogs
saints
blues over 15.5

@8.58

input would be much appreciated thanks

Cats under 39.5 looks reasonable, although I think Collingwood might just pip them. I've taken a very conservative "Collingwood +39.5" for this game.

Your Dogs bet looks safe.

Your Saints bet looks dodgy. That's a no bet game for me.

Blues over 15.5 looks good. I've taken Blues @ $1.41 for this game.

There's my 2 bob's worth.

 

[tarky]

Guys me and a mate looking at putting $100 on this multi, would love to know your thoughts

cats under 39.5
dogs
saints
blues over 15.5

@8.58

input would be much appreciated thanks

i'd just change cats to a straight out win, blues over 15.5 to the hawks+19.5 line, and the dogs to north+24.5 line @ around $11.50

 

[cynical]

Guys me and a mate looking at putting $100 on this multi, would love to know your thoughts

cats under 39.5
dogs
saints
blues over 15.5

@8.58

input would be much appreciated thanks

looks fine although i wouldnt have geelong under 39.5, i think the game could be a blowout either way as both sides are very attacking, if one gets on top it could be 40+

 

[Pixies]

Saints should beat the eagles easily, the eagles dont have the runners to exploit them like the blues and bombers have.

^this. I'll be loading up on the saints, 1.80 is easy money, the eagles will be kicking it straight to the saints every play

 

[Coach Bombay]

What I Like this week:

Geelong line -6.5 @ 2. Not going to pretend like I know these two teams inside out and this game is a real 50/50 game but Presti out could be a big one (despite them winning the past couple of games without him).

Port line -8.5 @ 1.90. Port have been good this year despite a poor loss last week and I feel that the ground this game is being played upon will suit them more. Can see them winning by a comfortable margin so very happy to take this line.

Dogs -15.5 @ 1.45. We have gone into this game with one recognised ruckmen, which was pretty much the way it was last week this Hale going down early, and Goldstein was absolutely buggered in the last which lead to Adelaide kicking 7 in a row in the last. Can see the dogs running away with it by plenty.

Freo 1-39 @ 2.60. The SCG is obviously a big advantage to the swans but with big Sandi up against poor direct opposition can see him dominating which goes a long way. Freo can win on the road and have not done much wrong this year.

Not sure what I will back out of these yet and am not touching other games as no real value stands out to me other than maybe a couple of exotic bets. Also, Have backed Wellingham for 1st goal scorer @ 84.

 

[mattys123]

I'm finding it hard to pick a clear winner for the Pies/Cats match, so I was looking at the game total.

At the moment, it's set at about 204.5 over or under.

What are your thoughts on this?

I'm thinking over, but it's a lot higher then the Freo/Pies game was last week.

 

[Jammer]

I know the Hawks look shot and don't play 'The Dome' well.........however geez $1.40 is short for the Blues.
Thats about the best team Hawthorn have fielded for a year....... The Blues have a few out and could be due a flat one...... Hawks still have a fair group of onballers and they are going to get hot one of these weeks and that forward line can still kick a winning score with supply.

 

[ManWithNoName]

I know the Hawks look shot and don't play 'The Dome' well.........however geez $1.40 is short for the Blues.
Thats about the best team Hawthorn have fielded for a year....... The Blues have a few out and could be due a flat one...... Hawks still have a fair group of onballers and they are going to get hot one of these weeks and that forward line can still kick a winning score with supply.

They fielded this "best team" last week and barely beat Richmond. Blokes like Burgoyne and Mitchell coming back from injury will be facing the second week blues this week too. I expect Carlton to win easily.

 

[The Big Woofer]

My thoughts for the week:

Collingwood will win
I think geelong have some trouble with quality small forwards & coll will keep sending different blokes up there to keep them guessing. Most teams have struggled the week after playing at the gabba this year (except wbd but they only beat adl & looked sluggish for much of the game). Coll will offset the class difference in the midfield by the huge numbers of different bloked who rotate through there. Another key difference from last year's prelim is that coll will have more midfield grunt with Pendlebury, Ball & a fit Swan (was not fit last yrs finals)

Sydney -6.5
I've been on the freo bandwagon so far but the forecast for heavy rain is a real problem--not to mention the forced changes.
Last year (I know freo are better than last year) Freo had 4 games in the wet & were beaten pretty easily all times & smashed on a couple. Now they have improved out of sight but all their wins come on the back of clean movement of the ball & getting their running game moving. A wet SCG will make this almost impossible & Sydney are experts at the high stoppage game.

Port -9.5
Melbourne have lost some good players & are really struggling for goals, Port have been good against average to poor sides & i just wonder if melb being a young side are starting to tire a little. Port were good in the wet vs StK & i feel will out-tackle Melb here. Port have the stronger bodies so if its wet they will be fine & if its dry i still think port's forward has a heck of a lot more class to kick a decent score than melb's.

 

[The Big Woofer]

I know the Hawks look shot and don't play 'The Dome' well.........however geez $1.40 is short for the Blues.
Thats about the best team Hawthorn have fielded for a year....... The Blues have a few out and could be due a flat one...... Hawks still have a fair group of onballers and they are going to get hot one of these weeks and that forward line can still kick a winning score with supply.

I agree with you, this game is still on my radar. Not a definite play yet but certainly wouldn't be taking $1.40 carl in this spot.

Rich have a good record v haw & haw simply needed a win for confidence & a run for a couple of guys.

only thing is bookies have built houses off haw this year & so far i've resisted to stay off the brown & gold so i'm not sure i can pull the trigger on them.

 

[asanque]

Can someone please confirm www.bet247.com.au is down?

I can't change my fantasy footy team

Thanks

Edit: Appears to be back now