AFL Round 9

[denitofinito]

Only seeing 5.90 for the dogs on betfair for me.

Missed the boat. The Doctor said they were at 7s before i got it at 6.80

 

[KardiniaPark]

why bother with a 7 game sample when for the past decade its basically been 50/50

Hi Grumpy, as I explained I'm not looking solely at travel. It's how beaten up they get while they are over there. I think the Saints would be pretty empty after that 2nd half effort, but I don't think much of Sydney so the game doesn't really interest me. I was just trying to share information instead of being a whining little bitch like some.

 

[PrinceOfPenrith]

Back us the line mate if it's 80+ mate, were not as bad as people think bad game against Brisbane but we bet the gold coast the weak b4 and they nelly bet the Essendon early in the year mate well probably lose but by only about 5 goals thats just my opinion

 

[Cuzz09]

Back us the line mate if it's 80+ mate, were not as bad as people think bad game against Brisbane but we bet the gold coast the weak b4 and they nelly bet the Essendon early in the year mate well probably lose but by only about 5 goals thats just my opinion

huh?

 

[Cuzz09]

Unitab....

Hawthorn H2H
Port Adel H2H
Adelaide H2H
North Melb H2H

$3.85

 

[tupperware]

huh?

Western Sydney. Don't worry


As for this week? So far backing Sydney looks good to me.. Saints win over Carlton shows nothing now.

Not placing North is any Multis for a while

 

[Cuzz09]

If the line is 80 for GWS I can see them covering it.

 

[5 Bucks]

I can see Essendon winning by 180

 

[GoodesStuff]

Western Sydney. Don't worry

Was going to reply with the same thing.

Worse than Collingwood supporters.

 

[ManWithNoName]

Suns/Adelaide/North

4u @$5.16

 

[KP78]

Western Sydney. Don't worry


As for this week? So far backing Sydney looks good to me.. Saints win over Carlton shows nothing now.

Not placing North is any Multis for a while

I will be staying clear of NM for a while, definitely not reading them correctly at the moment.

 

[Donkson]

I can see Essendon winning by 180

won't even win by 100.

 

[lamaros]

Shreds rested half the side and kept McDonald in reserve for this one. First game at the new stadium... They'll be up for it. Not sure bombers will smash them.

 

[The Big Woofer]

Sat forecast in Melb 20-40mm rain i can recall several games in last couple of yrs where Richmond won in awful conditions (& 1 bad loss to haw in that tiime).....conversely i am not sure the wet has helped Haw in a few losses during that same period in particular 2 vs geelong.

starting to think Richmond +22.5 might be value in these conditions. (windy forecast as well).

 

[Windy At Moorabbin]

At the moment I like:

Hawthorn HTH
Port HTH
St.Kilda HTH (All the Sydney fans believe swans are value and all the Saints fans believe the saints are value)
Collingwood at the line
Western Bulldogs at the line

 

[Manila_Playa87]

The bombers winning margin will depend on whether they wanna turn it on or not. Should be an uncontested game though and that's where the likes of Stanton,Zaharakis, Heppell etc all shine with their blistering pace busting the midfield right open.

 

[The_Doctor]

The bombers winning margin will depend on whether they wanna turn it on or not. Should be an uncontested game though and that's where the likes of Stanton,Zaharakis, Heppell etc all shine with their blistering pace busting the midfield right open.

If those guys have blistering pace they havent shown it in their careers yet

 

[anabac]

Sat forecast in Melb 20-40mm rain i can recall several games in last couple of yrs where Richmond won in awful conditions (& 1 bad loss to haw in that tiime).....conversely i am not sure the wet has helped Haw in a few losses during that same period in particular 2 vs geelong.

starting to think Richmond +22.5 might be value in these conditions. (windy forecast as well).

With all due respect to the weather man, how many times has a forecast gone to script 5 days out? And 20-40mm of rain? Not sure what weather srvice you use, but the BOM has Saturday as cloudy with scattered showers, definitely not 20-40mm.

In saying all that, I dont dislike the 22 point start for Richmond, but I wont be touching this game. Just too hard to predict whats going to happen, and if you have to convince yourself of the outcome by talking yourself into it, i dont think its a good game to bet on.

 

[DerpWerls]

Richmond lost to Hawthorn in the wet last year by 63 points. I wouldn't go near the Richmond line with our back line at the moment. Last week we were plaing Batchelor (23 games/188 cm) on Ryder (196cm) and Dea (11 games/186cm) on Hurley (193cm). This will not cut it against Hawthorn.

I think Adelaide will be too good. Swan and Reid are considerable outs for Collingwood. 3 units on Adelaide -11.5 at $1.91 (Bet365)

 

[Brave Sir Robin]

Dogs at the line, GC and Roos at the line look the early bets to me.

And before I get called a glutton for punishment by those who have done their dough on the Roos the last few weeks - I didn't fall for them.

 

[The Big Woofer]

With all due respect to the weather man, how many times has a forecast gone to script 5 days out? And 20-40mm of rain? Not sure what weather srvice you use, but the BOM has Saturday as cloudy with scattered showers, definitely not 20-40mm.

In saying all that, I dont dislike the 22 point start for Richmond, but I wont be touching this game. Just too hard to predict whats going to happen, and if you have to convince yourself of the outcome by talking yourself into it, i dont think its a good game to bet on.

I put this out there as a talking point, i'm not trying to talk myself into anything & i certainly dont base what i am doing on the varied opinions on here, my thinking is mainly that Haw like to play a high poss style of precise football not really suited to a wet windy day & i see the trouble of the Rich backline partly reduced if its a tough day for big forwards.
weatherzone.com.au has 20-40mm of rain but yeah its true 5 days out can be tricky.

 

[Djcjdees]

With all due respect to the weather man, how many times has a forecast gone to script 5 days out? And 20-40mm of rain? Not sure what weather srvice you use, but the BOM has Saturday as cloudy with scattered showers, definitely not 20-40mm.

In saying all that, I dont dislike the 22 point start for Richmond, but I wont be touching this game. Just too hard to predict whats going to happen, and if you have to convince yourself of the outcome by talking yourself into it, i dont think its a good game to bet on.

I'd say TBW probably heard the weatherman say that there'll be 20-40mm over the next 5 days. Meant to rain a few days in a row. But yeah, unlikely to have that much rain in a day

 

[Grimmjow]

^ why comment on something you think TBW did?

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/vic/melbourne/melbourne

I do agree that weather forecasts are unpredictable, but there is no fault behind his thinking.

EDIT: oh.. TBW already replied.

 

[Donkson]

The bombers winning margin will depend on whether they wanna turn it on or not. Should be an uncontested game though and that's where the likes of Stanton,Zaharakis, Heppell etc all shine with their blistering pace busting the midfield right open.

lol no.

 

[Prudster]

If the Tiges bomb it into their forward line as much as they did against Essendon, then the Hawks defence will have a field day. Gibson as a loose will mark/spoil everything, and he, Birchall, Guerra and Suckling will provide a heap of run. If they bomb it in, which may happen more if it's wet, i can see the Hawks easily covering that line. Mind you, I reckon the Hawks will easily cover the line anyway.