AFLs love affair with Gambling. Is the game compromised?

Madas

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General consensus amongst fans and media is Gill did a great job but nobody has properly scrutinised the fact that he spent a good portion of energy during his tenure slowly increasing the links between sport and gambling so as now the game is wholly dependent on it. Its a disgrace.

The mindset that Gil and his executive think they are all deserving of pay rises and a great share of game revenue ahead of footy departments shows their mindset.

They believe that the corporatism of the game and gambling is paramount.
☝️👍
 

EskimoPAFC

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So every result, nine per week, are pre-arranged between the umps, the bookies and the AFL?

Or is it just some of them?

What happens when the umpires, despite their best intentions to get the right team the win, can't do it? Will last night's umpires still get paid, or will they sleep with the fishes the next week, and the AFL get new ones who can do the job?

Do the AFL then lose their pre-arranged cut from last nights failure?

Hmmmm, so many questions....
Similar to every other sport where this has happened, the gambling syndicates would approach certain umpires they think might be open to accepting bribes.

They would then pick a game where a bribed umpire is selected for, and which they think could be influenced by umpiring in a certain direction, and ideally one that wouldn't raise a lot of suspicion; Gold Coast vs the Dogs being a prime example because the Dogs are probably the second most favoured side in the AFL anyway, and very few people care about the SUNS. Once they've done this, the key would be for the umpire to try to influence the game as much as they could, by calling more of the 50/50s in one direction without raising suspicion.

One thing that is key to understand here is that a lot of laypeople think in terms of absolutes - gambling syndicates think in terms of equity and ROI.

Let's say the true chances for a game are at 50% - each team has an equivalent chance to win. The odds for that game will likely sit at around $1.90 as the house takes a cut.

So if a syndicate bets say $100,000 on that game, then their return would be:
50% of the time they lose $100,000
50% of the time they make $90,000
Their expected ROI is 0.5 * 0 + 0.5 * 190,000 = $95,000. A $5000 loss on their investment.

Now lets say the bribed umpire can change the score by around 2 goals, which isn't out of the realms of possibility if they pick their spots well. Now suddenly the favoured side goes from 50% to say 60% to win. The return is now:
40% of the time they lose $100,000
60% of the time they make $90,000
Their expected ROI is now .4 * 0 + .6 * 190,000 = $114,000. A $14,000 win on their investment.

This is how they make money. They use part of this to pay off the umpire and it continues. If they're smart, and they are, then they're only working with a small amount of umpires they trust and have leverage over, and placing the bets across multiple accounts in to large markets which aren't going to get picked up on. They're also only doing it on the most influencable games and markets (for example player x kicking 3+ goals is going to be a lot easier if they get 2 or 3 free kicks in the forward 50), and because there is so much inconsistency in AFL umpiring, it never gets noticed.

Its happened in almost every other sport on the planet with serious betting involved, and the AFL is probably one of the most easily exploitable.
 

EskimoPAFC

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Bias against certain teams is a totally different issue that I see in here.

I don't really buy in to it. I think West Coast at home gets a serious advantage but on balance there isn't really much bias for any of the other sides. Within the other 17 clubs there is probably a gradually sliding scale with the Dogs at one end and the Tiges at the other but nobody outside of West Coast generally gets umpired so well or so poorly that it genuinely influences their season - good play beats bad umpiring. As a Port supporter for example we easily copped the worst umpiring in the first 7 rounds this year, yet still went 5-2, and one of our losses (vs Adelaide) was actually probably the only game in that stretch the umpiring went our way. Since then we have been regressing to the mean as you would expect, winning the free kick counts against the Dons and Tiges.

What does happen, is that games in general are umpired poorly and inconsistently, and people are biased to notice the decisions that go against them more than the decisions that go their way. It ends up with everybody thinking they get rogered by the umpiring, even when it doesn't actually play that big a role.

Edit: I don't think the umpires are to blame for this either. They do their best. The sport is impossible to umpire with the changing "interpretations".
 
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PetterdHoisted

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Apr 27, 2014
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General consensus amongst fans and media is Gill did a great job but nobody has properly scrutinised the fact that he spent a good portion of energy during his tenure slowly increasing the links between sport and gambling so as now the game is wholly dependent on it. Its a disgrace.

The mindset that Gil and his executive think they are all deserving of pay rises and a great share of game revenue ahead of footy departments shows their mindset.

They believe that the corporatism of the game and gambling is paramount.
Those comments from Brendan Gale about gambling at the footy could well have been central to him going from certainty to a nobody in the ‘race’ to replace Gill

Gale has said it very clearly footy games are no longer a safe space for fans to go to due to the saturation of gambling ads.

(Mind you Gale stuck by the pokies, so no white knight)
 

misnomer

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Bias against certain teams is a totally different issue that I see in here.
Bias against certain teams absolutley happens but it is often completley unconcious and officials don't even notice it's happening. A study was done a few years ago going back through archival penalty data for the NHL to see if jersey color mattered in sports. These researcher's found that referees were more likley to call a penalty on a team wearing black jerseys. The example they presented was the 1979-80 Pittsburgh Penguins who changed their jerseys from sky blue to black mid-season. Before the switch, they averaged 4 penalties per game. After the switch, they averaged 6.

Sometimes, that bias can switch drastically for a short amount of time in order to make the much hated "make-up call." I am an ice hockey official and baseball umpire from the US and I will be the first to admit that I have done this and I am not proud of it. But, say for example I missed an obvious trip against Team A, well then maybe the next time a player on Team B gets tripped, I just so happen to be looking the other way.

That being said, bias can also result from the official's own personal feelings for or against a team. If a team has a history of treating referees/umpires poorly, they will likley get more fouls/penalties called on them in retaliation. Even individual players who have a track record might get hit with phantom calls or more severe penalties for minor infractions.
 
Sep 9, 2015
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Why would the AFL invest so much money into the GC then get the umps to cause them to lose?

It would be more believable if they kept the GC in games with head scratching decisions.
 

Osho

We haven't changed our position.
Jul 9, 2021
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Kids watching ads certainly will be compromised. As will adults who can't control their gambling habit.

The AFL just needs to find more suitable sponsors and survive with less revenue. Then have a weekly celebration of a gambling free comp.
 

Ati Tude

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Mar 20, 2018
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Bias against certain teams absolutley happens but it is often completley unconcious and officials don't even notice it's happening. A study was done a few years ago going back through archival penalty data for the NHL to see if jersey color mattered in sports. These researcher's found that referees were more likley to call a penalty on a team wearing black jerseys. The example they presented was the 1979-80 Pittsburgh Penguins who changed their jerseys from sky blue to black mid-season. Before the switch, they averaged 4 penalties per game. After the switch, they averaged 6.

Sometimes, that bias can switch drastically for a short amount of time in order to make the much hated "make-up call." I am an ice hockey official and baseball umpire from the US and I will be the first to admit that I have done this and I am not proud of it. But, say for example I missed an obvious trip against Team A, well then maybe the next time a player on Team B gets tripped, I just so happen to be looking the other way.

That being said, bias can also result from the official's own personal feelings for or against a team. If a team has a history of treating referees/umpires poorly, they will likley get more fouls/penalties called on them in retaliation. Even individual players who have a track record might get hit with phantom calls or more severe penalties for minor infractions.

The black jumper thing explains why the umps give us such a rough run all the damn time. Must have cost us a couple of flags over 100+ years. Even when the captains called frees, it probably worked against us.
 

misnomer

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The black jumper thing explains why the umps give us such a rough run all the damn time. Must have cost us a couple of flags over 100+ years. Even when the captains called frees, it probably worked against us.
I can't tell if your being sarcastic, so I'm assuming not, but that absolutley could be a thing. The human mind is weird. Heres the link to the paper if you want to give it a read:
 

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Area51

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Jun 6, 2022
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The AFL also monitors stats on TV viewership based on how close the games are. There is a clear incentive to make games closer (in addition any other incentives related to gambling out comes). It would interesting to look a free kicks paid to the team with the lead vs the team trailing to see if the umps are in on the scam.
 
Aug 13, 2018
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Kids watching ads certainly will be compromised. As will adults who can't control their gambling habit.

The AFL just needs to find more suitable sponsors and survive with less revenue. Then have a weekly celebration of a gambling free comp.
To me it's more than just the social responsibility side and integrity issues

Th gambling ads actually reduce how enjoyable the game experience is.

Nothing sours my mood more than seeing Nathan Brown come on and talk utter s**t about someone getting "over 30" disposals.

Just * right off.
 

Osho

We haven't changed our position.
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To me it's more than just the social responsibility side and integrity issues

Th gambling ads actually reduce how enjoyable the game experience is.

Nothing sours my mood more than seeing Nathan Brown come on and talk utter s**t about someone getting "over 30" disposals.

Just * right off.
Yep, my personal enjoyment also takes a massive hit everytime I see these promotioms.

Imagine the kudos and direct and indirect benefits the AFL could get if they could market themselves as gambling free versus virtually every other sport. It could be turned into a massive positive with long term net benefits for growing engagement with the game at multiple levels.

The insidiousness of gambling is a metastisising tumour.
 

Ati Tude

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Mar 20, 2018
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I can't tell if your being sarcastic, so I'm assuming not, but that absolutley could be a thing. The human mind is weird. Heres the link to the paper if you want to give it a read:
I was being sarcastic, but thanks for the paper. Is kind of interesting and probably not surprising, although the VFL/AFL teams with dark uniforms have won a lot of GFs - Ess, Carl, Tigers, Dees over a long period of time.
 

misnomer

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I was being sarcastic, but thanks for the paper. Is kind of interesting and probably not surprising, although the VFL/AFL teams with dark uniforms have won a lot of GFs - Ess, Carl, Tigers, Dees over a long period of time.
I don't understand sarcasm irl, let alone in text... ASD is a treat.
 

longdonkey

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Why would the AFL invest so much money into the GC then get the umps to cause them to lose?

It would be more believable if they kept the GC in games with head scratching decisions.
How do the AFL benefit by Gold Coast winning? In every way Victorian clubs benefit by Gold Coast being poor all the way from an extra Victorian team in the finals and the higher attendances, all the way to players returning to Victoria to play.
 
Sep 9, 2015
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How do the AFL benefit by Gold Coast winning? In every way Victorian clubs benefit by Gold Coast being poor all the way from an extra Victorian team in the finals and the higher attendances, all the way to players returning to Victoria to play.

Erhm because they want a national competition to succeed.

Kind of obvious that's their biggest goal. Not to get Western Bulldogs to win.
 
Mar 15, 2012
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In a time where you can gamble on 154 different markets within any game (at least according to Sportsbet.com.au), why would the umpires be inclined to fix the full result of a match, particularly given the huge number of variables involved in a sport like AFL which go far beyond free kicks? They simply don't make that much difference towards the final scoreline of a 120 minute game of football.

There were clearly a few iffy free kicks in the GC-Dogs game but in this example are we suggesting that the umpires were instructed to do anything they could do to ensure the $1.50 favourite got up? Surely Hanlon's Razor applies here.

That's not to say that fixing within an AFL game can not and potentially does not occur, but it's far, far more likely to involve spot betting (eg an umpire awards a dodgy free kick to a particular forward to help them get the first goal) than a match result.
 

longdonkey

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In a time where you can gamble on 154 different markets within any game (at least according to Sportsbet.com.au), why would the umpires be inclined to fix the full result of a match, particularly given the huge number of variables involved in a sport like AFL which go far beyond free kicks? They simply don't make that much difference towards the final scoreline of a 120 minute game of football.

There were clearly a few iffy free kicks in the GC-Dogs game but in this example are we suggesting that the umpires were instructed to do anything they could do to ensure the $1.50 favourite got up? Surely Hanlon's Razor applies here.

That's not to say that fixing within an AFL game can not and potentially does not occur, but it's far, far more likely to involve spot betting (eg an umpire awards a dodgy free kick to a particular forward to help them get the first goal) than a match result.
Wasn't so much the dodgy frees it was the fact that Gold Coast didn't get ANY until 90 seconds before half time then get 2 in 10 seconds.
 

Kappa

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If they are doing their job, the favourite winning is always good for bookies.
Winning margins e.g. 40 points or more would be big deal.
A few free kicks to bring the margin back would be a real temptation.

You think the umpires are looking at the scores to help the bookies win more money? Which umpires, all of them?
 
Mar 15, 2012
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Wasn't so much the dodgy frees it was the fact that Gold Coast didn't get ANY until 90 seconds before half time then get 2 in 10 seconds.
Did the umpires not pay any obvious ones in that time though? I haven't watched the replay so not suggesting they did or didn't, but it is possible to go a long time without being infringed against (again, dunno if that was the case on the weekend).
 

longdonkey

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Did the umpires not pay any obvious ones in that time though? I haven't watched the replay so not suggesting they did or didn't, but it is possible to go a long time without being infringed against (again, dunno if that was the case on the weekend).
Bulldogs would have thrown the ball 20 times before Gold Coast got a free.
 
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