Preview AFLW 2019 - R6+R7 and Finals watch/discussion

John Who

Norm Smith Medallist
Apr 16, 2017
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We are on a verge of a Finals qualification with our current ranking and with only 2 rounds remaining before the onset of Finals. This week could be the round where we could consolidate not only our top ranking, but to be the first team to qualify with 1 week left in the minor rounds. However, if we become complacent, there's still a chance we could miss out on Finals action altogether!

Here's the current AFLW 2019 ladder rankings for both Conferences:

Conference A


Team

Wins

Loss

Points

Percentage

Adelaide Crows

4

1

16

178.1

Kangaroos

4

1

16

138.4

Fremantle

4

1

16

118.9

Melbourne

3

2

12

160

Western Bulldogs

2

3

8

66.8

Conference B


Geelong Cats

3

2

12

90.3

Carlton

2

3

8

89.6

Brisbane Lions

2

3

8

71.4

GWS Giants

1

4

4

61.9

Collingwood

0

5

0

62
 

John Who

Norm Smith Medallist
Apr 16, 2017
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Round 6 fixure:
- Cats vs Freo
- Pies vs Kangas
- Dogs vs Dees
- Crows vs Giants
- Carlton vs Lions

Round 7 fixture:
- Giants vs Cats
- Crows vs Dees *
- Freo vs Kangas *
- Pies vs Lions
- Dogs vs Carlton

Round 7 is shaping to be highly intriguing and the cards are falling towards a pseudo-Semi Final before the actual Semi Final in the 2 matches marked with the *.

So what are the possibilities should we win 0, 1 or 2 of the remaining 2 matches of minor rounds?

The easy part of the equation is when we win either 0 or 2 remaining games:
0/2 wins = likely to be eliminated from the Finals
2/2 wins = likely to be top of the table in Conference A, and likely to be the top team with best percentage with either conferences

1/1 wins = ?

The answer relies on how the other teams perform in Conference A, mainly with Kangas, Freo and Dees.
Technically, if we win 1 match and win well, we are a good chance to make at least rank 2 in Conference A. However, if the other teams win and win well in their other games, then there's still a chance they can push Adelaide down to probable 3rd spot (which means we miss out the Finals).

A lot of possible permutations of the Finals make-up!
 
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John Who

Norm Smith Medallist
Apr 16, 2017
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AFL Club
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The Crows girls have got me excited this year and I've got a bit carried away with looking at tables and fixtures, so here's another table and another perspective on how well the teams are travelling - only mention of 7 teams who are still vying for Finals spots.

Table of scoring shots:

Teams

Rd 1

Rd 2

Rd 3

Rd 4

Rd 5

Total shots

Ave. per game

Crows

12

12

16

20

14

74

14.8

Freo

14

17

16

8

12

67

13.4

Dees

15

11

15

9

17

67

13.4

Kangas

17

13

13

8

9

60

12

Carlton

6

9

15

9

14

53

10.6

Lions

9

10

6

14

3

42

8.4

Cats

9

6

7

9

10

41

8.2

We are clearly the team with the best scoring power at the moment. And if we are narrowing it down to more recent form, say the last 2 rounds, it would look like this:

Table of scoring shots (Rd 4+5):

Teams

Rd 4

Rd 5

Total shots

Ave. per game

Crows

20

14

34

17

Freo

8

12

20

10

Dees

9

17

26

13

Kangas

8

9

17

8.5

Carlton

9

14

23

11.5

Lions

14

3

17

8.5

Cats

9

10

19

9.5

With the addition of Thompson and Ponter in the forward line, and the natural evolution of Jones, we now have a forward structure that is capable of multiple scoring options and no longer reliant on Erin (although her being in form is certainly helping our cause!)
 

Shaz2012

Cancelled
Sep 15, 2012
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If we have a big win this week, then we can stay above Melbourne even in a tight loss. Even if Melbourne go above us, only one of North and Freo can join us on points and they would have to smash the other to go above both us. Given both are good teams you would think a blow out one way or the other is unlikely.

A big win this week that adds at least as much % as the other big 3 and we are in a pretty strong position going into R7.
 
Jul 27, 2004
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If we have a big win this week, then we can stay above Melbourne even in a tight loss. Even if Melbourne go above us, only one of North and Freo can join us on points and they would have to smash the other to go above both us. Given both are good teams you would think a blow out one way or the other is unlikely.

A big win this week that adds at least as much % as the other big 3 and we are in a pretty strong position going into R7.
GWS is ordinary. Should be a 5-7 goal win.
 

John Who

Norm Smith Medallist
Apr 16, 2017
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The cards have fallen for the expected wins to the top teams in Kangas, Freo and Dees.
We're due to play GWS tomorrow afternoon.

The current ladder rankings in Conference A:


Team

Wins

Loss

Points

Percentage

Kangaroos

5

1

20

143.7

Fremantle

5

1

20

133.8

Crows

4

1

16

178.1

Melbourne

4

2

16

148.1

Bulldogs

2

4

8

72.1
 

WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot

Norm Smith Medallist
Oct 26, 2012
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A 3 goal win today and we'd need to lose by 3 goals to Melbourne in order to miss out.

A 5 goal win today means we'd need to lose to Melbourne by 4 goals to miss out.
 
Aug 21, 2007
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Ready to be part of the Guard of Honor for today’s game.

C2D33554-55AA-4E41-A983-D4B250FFAE9B.jpeg

F222507B-D31C-4A24-BECD-067A683B776A.jpeg
 
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Jun 6, 2010
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The AFL need to scrap the conference finals idea as of right now. The idea was there and i could see the thinking but its highlighted that the unpredictability of the competition simply can't sustain such a finals system fairly. I can't see how in any world the AFL heads can stand there and justify that the Crows, North or Fremantle miss out on the finals while in the other conference, teams who have a combined 0-9 win loss ratio against the 3 best teams in the other conference look set to play finals. Its a complete disaster and a massive lack of respect to the women game. The AFL need to act now or they will again be viewed as an amateur organisation unable to view the tea leaves for the games best interest.
 

dplggr47

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Mar 13, 2008
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The AFL need to scrap the conference finals idea as of right now. The idea was there and i could see the thinking but its highlighted that the unpredictability of the competition simply can't sustain such a finals system fairly. I can't see how in any world the AFL heads can stand there and justify that the Crows, North or Fremantle miss out on the finals while in the other conference, teams who have a combined 0-9 win loss ratio against the 3 best teams in the other conference look set to play finals. Its a complete disaster and a massive lack of respect to the women game. The AFL need to act now or they will again be viewed as an amateur organisation unable to view the tea leaves for the games best interest.
It's too far into the season. They had a chance to do it a few rounds back, but 'assured' everyone that it would all even out in the end; which it obviously didn't. I'm sure it'll be scrapped for next season, but sure sucks to be Melb/Freo who'll most likely miss out to lesser teams like Geelong and Carlton or Brisbane.
 
Jun 6, 2010
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Viana do Castelo (Portugal)
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It's too far into the season. They had a chance to do it a few rounds back, but 'assured' everyone that it would all even out in the end; which it obviously didn't. I'm sure it'll be scrapped for next season, but sure sucks to be Melb/Freo who'll most likely miss out to lesser teams like Geelong and Carlton or Brisbane.

its not too late because no team will be disadvantaged. Any team in the other conference has no leg to stand on because they are all getting flogged each week by the 3 teams in the crows conference plus with cameos from melbourne. Basically if they ditched it, the top 4 sides all come from the one conference. It has backfired, the AFL need to own it and not punish the good teams who deserve finals.
 

John Who

Norm Smith Medallist
Apr 16, 2017
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7,093
AFL Club
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Ok geeks, nerds and AFLW Crows lovers...

I now present to you the current ladder after 6 rounds with scores analysis and percentages:
(only top 4 teams in Conference A in focus, who are still battling for top 2 and a spot in the Semi Final)


Team

Wins

Loss

Score For

Score Against

Percentage

Points

Adelaide

5

1

328

178

184.3

20

North Melbourne

5

1

273

190

143.7

20

Fremantle

5

1

301

225

133.8

20

Melbourne

4

2

271

183

148.1

16

The please thing about the ladder so far is that we are currently the number 1 team for both attack AND defense!

With next round, from a Conference A perspective, the only 2 matches we need to focus on are:
- Crows vs Demons
- Kangas vs Freo

Winner of the Kangas/Freo match will either be top (if we lose to Demons) or be second (if we beat the Dees).

--------------------------------------------------------

Now for the fun mathematical stuff...

Should we win next round, we are GUARANTEED top spot (due to our vastly superior percentage compared with North/Freo).

Should we lose next round, then we can either still be in 2nd spot, or drop to 3rd spot (with Dees surpassing us). The result is dependent on the scores and the margin of loss.

To remain on a higher percentage than the Dees, we need a higher ratio of [scores for]/[score against].
The resulting outcome is that the Dees need to beat us by 4-5 goals to surpass our percentage.

Damn the Dogs for letting the Dees beat them by 1 point last night! Things could have been a lot more simple!
 
Apr 29, 2008
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A draw between North and Freo could still throw a spanner in the works. They play after us next week so if we lose but hold onto percentage, it will be a nervous watch on Saturday night!

It's a fairly simple equation with Melbourne since our points against are almost identical.

We're on 328-178, they're on 271-183.

To stay ahead of them, we need to keep our loss to exactly four goals or less, with roughly one point leeway for three goals we score. So if we score six goals, we can afford to go down by 26 points.

Given that scores tend to be not super high in AFLW, it's probably easiest to just say four goals is our margin. As long as we're no more than 24 points behind at full time, we're definitely ahead of them.
 

John Who

Norm Smith Medallist
Apr 16, 2017
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AFL Club
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A draw between North and Freo could still throw a spanner in the works. They play after us next week so if we lose but hold onto percentage, it will be a nervous watch on Saturday night!

It's a fairly simple equation with Melbourne since our points against are almost identical.

We're on 328-178, they're on 271-183.

To stay ahead of them, we need to keep our loss to exactly four goals or less, with roughly one point leeway for three goals we score. So if we score six goals, we can afford to go down by 26 points.

Given that scores tend to be not super high in AFLW, it's probably easiest to just say four goals is our margin. As long as we're no more than 24 points behind at full time, we're definitely ahead of them.
Basically, a win would make everything so much easier to calculate ie. guaranteed top spot, home Semi Final!

If Freo and North have a drawn game if we lose next week, then it’s going to look mighty sus!
 
Sep 19, 2007
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What an afl shitshow they have served up with these conferences.
The 3rd side in A thrashes the top side of B.

Bloody buffoons in charge.

Having a look at the ladder, it’s conceivable that the 5th ranked side in Conferance A, the Bulldogs, could end up with a better record than the 1st ranked side in Conference B.

The conference system has obviously been brought in to assist in the coming years as the competition expands further, however it has significantly compromised this years competition.
 

PasswordisTaco

Team Captain
Jan 31, 2016
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I've never missed a game and always been enthusiastic since this team started playing way back in 2017 but until this season I've never been so proud of these girls representing the mighty AFC name. We have finally as a unit collectively recognised our clubs rightful place as the dominant force in this competition and played accordingly lifting our skill and pressure level above all others, destroying every challenger to dare step to us. May our boys take a leaf out of the girls book.
 
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