AFLW 2021

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NonPhixion

Bookie Assassin
Mar 27, 2018
5,193
7,571
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
The most lucrative sport in the world makes an imminent return this week. Was hoping to see more futures markets up.. nevertheless have taken a bit on North for premiers.

Early action:
Like Collingwood +9.5 $1.89
Think they will show good improvement this year, beat North in a practice match and they impressed me at training. Think the line is just too high. Hopefuly see some GS markets later in the week.
 

NYRB

Norm Smith Medallist
Oct 6, 2011
7,294
2,767
Auckland, New Zealand
AFL Club
GWS
Other Teams
Patriots, Perth Glory, Wildcats
Fremantle AFLW were pretty impressive last season before covid19 had its place to play. Can't have any odds on Freo to win at short odds of $4 though. ($5 on the Betfair Exchange)



Odds to Make the Finals in 2021: (6 teams)
Kangaroos $1.10
Freo $1.12
Carlton $1.25
Melbourne $1.30
Brisbane $1.50
Adelaide $1.80
Collingwood $1.80
GWS $2
Geelong $3
St.K $6
Gold Coast, Bulldogs $7
Richmond, WCE $11




Might have to do a look at the underdogs and outsiders.
 

NonPhixion

Bookie Assassin
Mar 27, 2018
5,193
7,571
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
Fremantle AFLW were pretty impressive last season before covid19 had its place to play. Can't have any odds on Freo to win at short odds of $4 though. ($5 on the Betfair Exchange)



Odds to Make the Finals in 2021: (6 teams)
Kangaroos $1.10
Freo $1.12
Carlton $1.25
Melbourne $1.30
Brisbane $1.50
Adelaide $1.80
Collingwood $1.80
GWS $2
Geelong $3
St.K $6
Gold Coast, Bulldogs $7
Richmond, WCE $11




Might have to do a look at the underdogs and outsiders.
I’d be careful on some of the outsiders. I think the gap between the bottom 4 teams and the best 4-6 teams will be huge.

I’ve also taken a cheeky 3 leg multi all games the margin U24.5
Carlton/Collingwood
Saints/Dogs
GC/Melb
$2.85

chosen what I think will be the 3 closest games.

SB opened the Collingwood 40+ Market at $476... can’t see it happening but that was a tad crazy. Now $31
 

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NonPhixion

Bookie Assassin
Mar 27, 2018
5,193
7,571
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
Teams aren't really capable of kicking scores for the most part. I don't watch much but the bet makes sense given the incredibly low scoring
Ye pretty much the rationale. I think the SportsBet model is just a tad off on this specific market.
 

benji21

All Australian
Apr 2, 2016
994
652
Hong Kong
AFL Club
Fremantle
Think Freo lead the way with aggressive play last year, think the other teams will follow and as the girls that have actually grown up playing the sport come through I find the scoring is increasing, wouldn't be surprised if there's a bit of a breakout on scoring this year. Will be keen to hit some totals when/if they come up. Nothing massive but expecting 5 - 10ish points increase.

Adelaide the smokey this year, Randall and Philips back is massive.
 

Robo87

loyal crows fan.
Aug 3, 2014
2,129
2,418
Adelaide
AFL Club
Adelaide
I agree with the close games mentioned above.

Also my first reaction is Crows with Randall and Philips back vs an eagles who finished with a percentage of just 32 last year - seems like value imo.
1u on Crows -12.5 @1.91 b365 (line elsewhere is -14.5)
 

mookieb

Club Legend
Oct 4, 2006
2,183
1,707
Perth
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Alright well i'm joining the fun this year although tbh I know very little about AFLW.

I'm on Freo -13.5. According to premiership odds they are 2nd fav and went undefeated last year. Playing at home. Looks like it will be scorching hot (36 degrees). On the flipside GWS have had a deplorable build up. They couldn't train for two weeks because of covid, then went to a hub in Albury and then to Ade. In their only preseason game they had 1 scoring shot up until three quarter time. I listened to a 4 minute interview of their coach where all he does is talk about how compromised their training was.

Also a little nibble on 40+ at $7.50.
 

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NonPhixion

Bookie Assassin
Mar 27, 2018
5,193
7,571
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
I’d be careful on some of the outsiders. I think the gap between the bottom 4 teams and the best 4-6 teams will be huge.

I’ve also taken a cheeky 3 leg multi all games the margin U24.5
Carlton/Collingwood
Saints/Dogs
GC/Melb
$2.85

chosen what I think will be the 3 closest games.

SB opened the Collingwood 40+ Market at $476... can’t see it happening but that was a tad crazy. Now $31
U24.5 margin market already taken down by SportsBet:think:
 

Lewis#3

Team Captain
Aug 30, 2008
340
229
Wodonga
AFL Club
West Coast
I’d be careful on some of the outsiders. I think the gap between the bottom 4 teams and the best 4-6 teams will be huge.

I’ve also taken a cheeky 3 leg multi all games the margin U24.5
Carlton/Collingwood
Saints/Dogs
GC/Melb
$2.85

chosen what I think will be the 3 closest games.

SB opened the Collingwood 40+ Market at $476... can’t see it happening but that was a tad crazy. Now $31
Geez $476 would be an alright ticket to hold now lol
 

mookieb

Club Legend
Oct 4, 2006
2,183
1,707
Perth
AFL Club
Hawthorn
I’d be careful on some of the outsiders. I think the gap between the bottom 4 teams and the best 4-6 teams will be huge.

I’ve also taken a cheeky 3 leg multi all games the margin U24.5
Carlton/Collingwood
Saints/Dogs
GC/Melb
$2.85

chosen what I think will be the 3 closest games.

SB opened the Collingwood 40+ Market at $476... can’t see it happening but that was a tad crazy. Now $31
Geez that Coll 40+ odds...
 

Robo87

loyal crows fan.
Aug 3, 2014
2,129
2,418
Adelaide
AFL Club
Adelaide
I agree with the close games mentioned above.

Also my first reaction is Crows with Randall and Philips back vs an eagles who finished with a percentage of just 32 last year - seems like value imo.
1u on Crows -12.5 @1.91 b365 (line elsewhere is -14.5)
Also i forgot Metcalf (main ruck) is back too and Marinoff has appealed her suspension tonight successfully! (the tribunal should never have offered her 3 weeks).
 

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