AFLW 2021

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NYRB

Norm Smith Medallist
Oct 6, 2011
5,645
2,112
Auckland, New Zealand
AFL Club
GWS
Other Teams
Patriots, Perth Glory, Wildcats
West Coast Women in their brief history from 9 matches


average 2nd half margin: -20.22 points

I just saw signs that they were tiring late in that 2nd quarter. Take GWS at the -16.5 handicap, reckon GWS can win the 2nd half by at least 2 goals.
 

NYRB

Norm Smith Medallist
Oct 6, 2011
5,645
2,112
Auckland, New Zealand
AFL Club
GWS
Other Teams
Patriots, Perth Glory, Wildcats
A couple obersvations from todays game, West Coast women fitness is not there guys. There looked flat in that 2nd half, and I think there were signs of it showing late in the 2nd quarter. Might have to factor that into account in next weeks round.
 

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Nuggetz

Senior List
Jan 4, 2021
289
167
AFL Club
Sydney
Anyone here follow nrl or nrl punting? will chuck up some value stuff when the season begins.

Found one the other day for the All Stars vs Indigenous match where D.Fifita (try scoring fwd) was listed at $7/8 to score a try on bet365 when he should've been max $4.50, He didn't score due to wet weather but odds were still extremely inflated for him.
 

NYRB

Norm Smith Medallist
Oct 6, 2011
5,645
2,112
Auckland, New Zealand
AFL Club
GWS
Other Teams
Patriots, Perth Glory, Wildcats
Anyone here follow nrl or nrl punting? will chuck up some value stuff when the season begins.

Found one the other day for the All Stars vs Indigenous match where D.Fifita (try scoring fwd) was listed at $7/8 to score a try on bet365 when he should've been max $4.50, He didn't score due to wet weather but odds were still extremely inflated for him.
We had an NRL board last season on here but not many people played .
 

NonPhixion

Bookie Assassin
Mar 27, 2018
4,711
6,067
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
Also on Bowers BnF winner $7 -SB

best player in the best team. Averaging 21 touches and 13 tackles a game. She does a lot of tough work and this has to get the umpires attention, also uses the ball brilliantly on the outside.
Feel she should be a bit shorter in the market
 

Robo87

Club Legend
Aug 3, 2014
1,547
1,528
Adelaide
AFL Club
Adelaide
gs markets up early at sb, bodey still good value for goals
1+ @ 2.30
2+ @ 8.5

kicked 2.0, 2.2, 1.1 and 2.0 in previous games, 3rd in the league for goals

like sharp also from freo, kicked 3.2 in her 2 games this year
1+ @ 2.10
Like these, also O Sullivan was all around the Freo goals last game. And @2.40 for ags not the worst either.
 

Gibbsy

Moderator
Oct 12, 2009
22,842
25,564
Geelong
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Manchester City, Victory, Cavs
Also on Bowers BnF winner $7 -SB

best player in the best team. Averaging 21 touches and 13 tackles a game. She does a lot of tough work and this has to get the umpires attention, also uses the ball brilliantly on the outside.
Feel she should be a bit shorter in the market
Bri Davey at $15 is way overs and I'm not just saying that as a Pies fan. She's an in-and-under player who rides the tackles, it's crazy how skilled she is too.

Co-captain, averaging 24 touches (2nd at club behind Bonnici) and 5 tackles a game (1st at club), and has kicked a goal in three out of four matches this season. And the Pies are undefeated. She'd be on at least 6 votes up until this point, possibly more
 

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NonPhixion

Bookie Assassin
Mar 27, 2018
4,711
6,067
AFL Club
Collingwood
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Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
Bri Davey at $15 is way overs and I'm not just saying that as a Pies fan. She's an in-and-under player who rides the tackles, it's crazy how skilled she is too.

Co-captain, averaging 24 touches (2nd at club behind Bonnici) and 5 tackles a game (1st at club), and has kicked a goal in three out of four matches this season. And the Pies are undefeated. She'd be on at least 6 votes up until this point, possibly more
Davey is definitely a really good player, but i feel the issue is players like Bonnici and Lambert taking votes off her, Where as Bowers is the dominant mid at Fremantle and there real strength lies in the forward line so i think this can open the gate for Bowers to poll really well.
ATM i think Blackburn can easily be on 9-10 votes which would see her leading. I feel Bowers has had atleast 2 BOG's games and atleast 1 vote in each of the other 2.
I feel like SB has got this market wrong, i think there are players in the middle of the market that have no chance of winning and are too short, causing players at the top to have a nice juiced price. Also Prespakis is still in the market at $11 but she just got suspended and this rules her out of contention, this is a very sloppy effort by SB.
 

mookieb

Club Legend
Oct 4, 2006
2,032
1,433
Perth
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Anyone else think tigers at 1.40 is ridiculous?
Tigers at $1.40 ridiculous - probably, but have a look at the favs this week:

WB - $1.22 - got absolutely destroyed stat wise last week, but won kicking 6 goals 1 vs 2 goals 12
NM - $1.30 - lost their last 2
Ade - $1.15 - should win but pretty short
Coll - $1.48 - both teams have beaten NM in the last fortnight
WC - $1.48 - been atrocious, can't run out games, missing Hooker and McCarthy might miss as well
 

NYRB

Norm Smith Medallist
Oct 6, 2011
5,645
2,112
Auckland, New Zealand
AFL Club
GWS
Other Teams
Patriots, Perth Glory, Wildcats
Do the Gold Coast Suns womens team stay in Perth given they played against Freo last round? or do they head back to QLD?

I'd imagine they would be based in WA but that could be a big difference in assessing odds.
 

mookieb

Club Legend
Oct 4, 2006
2,032
1,433
Perth
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Do the Gold Coast Suns womens team stay in Perth given they played against Freo last round? or do they head back to QLD?

I'd imagine they would be based in WA but that could be a big difference in assessing odds.
They're staying in Perth. I desperately want to bet GC +7.5 given how terrible WC are and how they can't kick goals, but unusual preps like GC staying in Perth fill me with no confidence. Also GC marginally less terrible than WC.
 

NYRB

Norm Smith Medallist
Oct 6, 2011
5,645
2,112
Auckland, New Zealand
AFL Club
GWS
Other Teams
Patriots, Perth Glory, Wildcats
They're staying in Perth. I desperately want to bet GC +7.5 given how terrible WC are and how they can't kick goals, but unusual preps like GC staying in Perth fill me with no confidence. Also GC marginally less terrible than WC.
Don't forget that WCE women are coming back from a Sunday afternoon game in Sydney as well.

GC Women were alright for the 1st half against Freo. I can see this game being a tad more cagey and scrappy.
 

mookieb

Club Legend
Oct 4, 2006
2,032
1,433
Perth
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Don't forget that WCE women are coming back from a Sunday afternoon game in Sydney as well.

GC Women were alright for the 1st half against Freo. I can see this game being a tad more cagey and scrappy.
WC have a bit of flair and run at times. I would have thought it would be a scrappy, low skill game, but perhaps both teams will try and make something happen?
 

benji21

All Australian
Apr 2, 2016
838
523
Hong Kong
AFL Club
Fremantle
Tigers at $1.40 ridiculous - probably, but have a look at the favs this week:

WB - $1.22 - got absolutely destroyed stat wise last week, but won kicking 6 goals 1 vs 2 goals 12
NM - $1.30 - lost their last 2
Ade - $1.15 - should win but pretty short
Coll - $1.48 - both teams have beaten NM in the last fortnight
WC - $1.48 - been atrocious, can't run out games, missing Hooker and McCarthy might miss as well
Wc was gonna be my second question haha
 

Geeves Train

Team Captain
Mar 24, 2008
436
323
Sydney
AFL Club
Sydney
Being enjoying reading the thread lads. Thought I might chirp up re: B&F faves.

Blackburn ($4): legit fav but thought she might drift after R4. Kicked a huge goal late but thought less dominant than rounds 1-3. Surprised (read annoyed) she went from $7 > $4. She’s still a chance to poll but I thought Fitzgerald, Huntington and Paxman all ahead of her. Big plus that she’s a clear standout for WB in the mids, negatives is WB prob won’t have a great winning record so harder to get votes.

Bowers ($5): reckon she is currently leading and her stats and coaches votes are out of this world. Annoyed I missed the $7 on opening this week as this was a big price. Houghton may have stolen votes off her in Rd 1 but she’s Freo’s best mid AND they will win close to all of their games. Probably should be fav.

Phillips ($5): polling machine, 2 clear BOG but 2 quieter games also. Reckon she’s unders at the moment but understandable why she is being kept safe. Marinoff could quote easily steal votes off her also.

Parker ($15): would be close to lead and is clear standout for GWS, don’t think they will win enough games for her to be able to win but I’d suggest she is probably still overs at $15.

Patrikios ($11): is a gun but copped a hard tag in Rd 4 and looked like it was a bit of a battle to work through it. Might be because she is a smaller player and can’t just be a bull like Phillips, etc. Also don’t think Saints win enough games.

Davey/Bonnici ($15): Pies will win a stack of games but I think they will get in each other’s way. This event will be won with around maybe 18-21 of a possible 24 votes. They would just about need to finish 1,2 every week to be a winning hope. Got to pen both for mine.

As above. I think the winner will need an incredibly high total to win the B&F and therefore the winner will boil down to who can get 3 votes when the big guns play each other. This actually makes things really difficult as we don’t know the draw for all 8 rounds and therefore some players will get softer seasons but we don’t know which ones.

I could only back Bowers and Parker at current prices but there isn’t much value atm. I think the time to bet will be around R6-7 when a $3 fav may actually be a $1.50-$2 chance. Interested to see how it plays out!!
 

NonPhixion

Bookie Assassin
Mar 27, 2018
4,711
6,067
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
Being enjoying reading the thread lads. Thought I might chirp up re: B&F faves.

Blackburn ($4): legit fav but thought she might drift after R4. Kicked a huge goal late but thought less dominant than rounds 1-3. Surprised (read annoyed) she went from $7 > $4. She’s still a chance to poll but I thought Fitzgerald, Huntington and Paxman all ahead of her. Big plus that she’s a clear standout for WB in the mids, negatives is WB prob won’t have a great winning record so harder to get votes.

Bowers ($5): reckon she is currently leading and her stats and coaches votes are out of this world. Annoyed I missed the $7 on opening this week as this was a big price. Houghton may have stolen votes off her in Rd 1 but she’s Freo’s best mid AND they will win close to all of their games. Probably should be fav.

Phillips ($5): polling machine, 2 clear BOG but 2 quieter games also. Reckon she’s unders at the moment but understandable why she is being kept safe. Marinoff could quote easily steal votes off her also.

Parker ($15): would be close to lead and is clear standout for GWS, don’t think they will win enough games for her to be able to win but I’d suggest she is probably still overs at $15.

Patrikios ($11): is a gun but copped a hard tag in Rd 4 and looked like it was a bit of a battle to work through it. Might be because she is a smaller player and can’t just be a bull like Phillips, etc. Also don’t think Saints win enough games.

Davey/Bonnici ($15): Pies will win a stack of games but I think they will get in each other’s way. This event will be won with around maybe 18-21 of a possible 24 votes. They would just about need to finish 1,2 every week to be a winning hope. Got to pen both for mine.

As above. I think the winner will need an incredibly high total to win the B&F and therefore the winner will boil down to who can get 3 votes when the big guns play each other. This actually makes things really difficult as we don’t know the draw for all 8 rounds and therefore some players will get softer seasons but we don’t know which ones.

I could only back Bowers and Parker at current prices but there isn’t much value atm. I think the time to bet will be around R6-7 when a $3 fav may actually be a $1.50-$2 chance. Interested to see how it plays out!!
ye nice break down. Agree with your thoughts.

Its funny how SB took down Prespakis just after i posted here lol, even though by the time i posted it was hours after it was announced she was suspended. I think this caused a little chain effect and hence Bowers came into $5 with probably a little support too.
 

Robo87

Club Legend
Aug 3, 2014
1,547
1,528
Adelaide
AFL Club
Adelaide
Bowers ($5): reckon she is currently leading and her stats and coaches votes are out of this world. Annoyed I missed the $7 on opening this week as this was a big price. Houghton may have stolen votes off her in Rd 1 but she’s Freo’s best mid AND they will win close to all of their games. Probably should be fav.
Bowers is still @6 on b365, just put 2u on as i rate her to be right up there at the end of the season.

Also it might be good if we can keep a rough tally for the top current 3 players?
I have Phillips on: 3+1or0+0+3 = 7max
Votes from NP above:
Bowers =8,
Blackburn= 9 or 10
 
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NYRB

Norm Smith Medallist
Oct 6, 2011
5,645
2,112
Auckland, New Zealand
AFL Club
GWS
Other Teams
Patriots, Perth Glory, Wildcats
TopSport.com.au Lines for this weeks AFLW matches ($1.90 lines each way- except for Freo v Brisbane)

Geelong +8.5 pts v -8.5 Richmond
Bulldogs -14.5 pts v +14.5 pts GWS
Freo -8.5 pts ($1.85 line) v +8.5 pts ($1.95 line) Brisbane
Kangaroos -10.5 pts v +10.5 pts Carlton
Adelaide -18.5 pts v +18.5 Saints
Collingwood -5.5 pts v +5.5 Melbourne
WCE -8.5 pts v +8.5 pts Gold Coast
 

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