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freo_leo29

Norm Smith Medallist
Oct 20, 2010
6,320
7,126
Perth
AFL Club
Fremantle
Other Teams
East Fremantle
Fremantle have been non existent in first halves and it shows, getting too late in the season for it to be fixed.

Our best is probably better than the rest but our first halves mean we won't win the flag, dropped too many games now too so we are just making up numbers.
 

Geeves Train

Team Captain
Mar 24, 2008
459
358
Sydney
AFL Club
Sydney
Normally agree with most of what is posted here but I can’t agree with people on Bowers, she pile drived her opponents head into the ground. Looked bad, I’d be surprised if she gets off!!
 

benji21

All Australian
Apr 2, 2016
902
577
Hong Kong
AFL Club
Fremantle
Maybe I didn't watch enough matches this weekend but there are some really off odds this weekend in my opinion.

North 2.05 should be probably 1.90 with bowers, 1.7 without.
Melb at 3.10, although i think Brissy should be favorites that's way to high.
Saints. WC may be home but they nearly lost to GC there.

Those are probably the main 3 but
GC also seems pretty strong value against gelong.
 

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freo_leo29

Norm Smith Medallist
Oct 20, 2010
6,320
7,126
Perth
AFL Club
Fremantle
Other Teams
East Fremantle
B and F still wide open after last week but Bowers going to need some votes this week to take it out you would think
 

mookieb

Club Legend
Oct 4, 2006
2,126
1,582
Perth
AFL Club
Hawthorn
I find round 23 in the men's by far the best round to bet in and therefore I have pored over the women's games, but the bookies seem to have done a decent job. It ends up being a very unique round. All the likely finalists play each other and all the weak teams battle it out.

Given that the women only play 9 games rather than a long season some of my theories might not pan out, but still seems to be some good bets around.

WB vs Rich

This to me is a much bigger game for WB coming off 3 bad losses than Rich who have had a great season and won their last 2. The line should have been close in my opinion. Rich is stat wise and form wise doing much better than WB of late. Both teams coming off a 5 day break. Might let it go because i'm not confident teams can switch form as quickly in women's as they do in men's. Might try and bet live if I think Rich's pressure and intensity is off.

NM vs Freo

I'm close to running a line through both preseason favs. NM failed against all 3 good teams played (Melb, Coll and Bris) and Freo failed against Bris, Melb and should have lost to Carl. I think Freo's midfield lacks star power with only Bowers the genuine gun. Rank 10th for disposals. If Bowers was out it was guaranteed bet on NM. I think NM win a tight game here. 2u NM +2.5 and i'll look to middle 1 unit if Freo start slow like normal.

Melb vs Bris

Line seems a little high although I think Bris are the better team. Don't like Melb on a 6 day break after a hot game in Perth the week before though.

GC vs Geel

Intriguing battle of 2 poor teams. From where I stand though GC has all the small advantages - HGA, they kick slightly more goals, stats a bit better than Geel and not sure Geel has 2 competitive games in a row in them. 2u GC -4.5.

Ade vs Coll

Think Ade at home should be a little bit more potent in attack especially with Coll losing two key defenders in Butler and Allen. Probably a slightly better team and HGA to get them over the line. 2u Ade -4.5.

GWS vs Carl

If NM lose then Carl can make finals with a big win. Regardless I think they cover. They've been in sneaky good form and should have won 5 of 6 (Freo loss was a miracle). 2u -16.5.

WC vs StK

Normally I would back Saints here to finish the season on a high after multitude terrible losses and with WC likely feeling quite good how the 2nd half of the season has gone. However, Saints have been so bad and WC quite competitive then I can't back Saints here. Injuries for WC have been piling up, but they have shown some good signs.

Waiting to see what totals go up as i'll likely be keen on the overs in the dead rubbers.
 

Robo87

loyal crows fan.
Aug 3, 2014
1,804
1,888
Adelaide
AFL Club
Adelaide
No love Petrikios? She had 29 touches and 9 clearances but Saints did get smoked and were never in it so she could get ignored!!
I guess she could get 1 or 2 if lucky, but umps usually favour the winning teams best player(s). (well i might be bias with my view here as i myself umpire some local country footy but i think a few umpires do it that way.)
 

Robo87

loyal crows fan.
Aug 3, 2014
1,804
1,888
Adelaide
AFL Club
Adelaide
for Round 8 B&F votes, i gave: Blackburn 0, Bowers 0, Philips 0, Davey 3 ( bonnici 2, lambert 1, paxman 2, garner 0. )
making total:
Blackburn 9 or 10,
Bowers 14 **maybe ineligible, edit: eligible
Philips 11 or 12
Davey 12
bonnici - unknown might need to count back.
lambert - unknown
paxman unknown might need to count back.
garner - unknown.
....things just got interesting.
My revised votes estimate;
Didnt inlcude patrikios because i think saints havent won enough games. votes are my estimates and i used aflw website reviews of a few games to fill in the games i didnt watch.
excel 3.jpg
 

benji21

All Australian
Apr 2, 2016
902
577
Hong Kong
AFL Club
Fremantle
Having a little on North lead every quarter @3.75. Freo goalless in the first quarter a lot, then become unstoppable in the last quarter. If north win they will need a fast start and just hang on.
 

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Robo87

loyal crows fan.
Aug 3, 2014
1,804
1,888
Adelaide
AFL Club
Adelaide
some value for gs in the north game (b365):
1u sharp ags @2.05
1u abbatangelo ags @ 2.05
1u garner ags @1.80
1u bannister ags @2.15
1u bateman ags @2.10
1u K Gilespe Jones ags @3.50 (named fwd)
take your pick.
sgm adds up for these too. will multi a few.
i can only see b365 has gs for aflw now it seems.
edit, added:
1u sgm garner, bateman, abbatangelo ags @9 b365
1u sgm garner, bannister , abbatangelo ags @9 b365
0.5u sgm Gilespe Jones, garner, abbatangelo ags @15 b365
0.5u sgm Gilespe Jones, bateman, abbatangelo ags @17 b365
2u sgm garner, bateman ags @4.33 b365
1u garner, abbaT @4 b365
1u garner, bannister @4.33 b365
1u bannister, abbaT @4.75 b365
1u bannister, bateman @5 b365

still more value here than in mens footy imo..
 
Last edited:

mookieb

Club Legend
Oct 4, 2006
2,126
1,582
Perth
AFL Club
Hawthorn
NM vs Freo

I'm close to running a line through both preseason favs. NM failed against all 3 good teams played (Melb, Coll and Bris) and Freo failed against Bris, Melb and should have lost to Carl. I think Freo's midfield lacks star power with only Bowers the genuine gun. Rank 10th for disposals. If Bowers was out it was guaranteed bet on NM. I think NM win a tight game here. 2u NM +2.5 and i'll look to middle 1 unit if Freo start slow like normal.
Both teams can't win the Premiership.

Freo 40 possessions behind and 10 I50's. Playing away from home and getting 18 free kicks to 2. Can't find any live betting options except 365 where I have bet on NM so I have cashed out.
 

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