After Round 7, your new tips for the Grand Final.

[Dan26]

Well, after Round 7, it looks as if, most of us are going to have to adjust our pre-season tips. For me, my Grand Final is :

Port Adelaide vs Essendon.

There are a lot of people out there who still doubt Port, based on reputation. I can tell you, they are not just top 4 contenders, but bona-fide premiership chances. They have won 11 out of 12 (including Ansett Cup), with the only loss being an away game to Essendon.

Port are playing with incredibly skill and scoring power, and have the ability to crush teams. Hawthorn, on the other hand do not have this quality. Just have a look at the AFL ladder and look at the for-and-against (hence percentage) for Port Adelaide and Hawthorn. Hawthorn only have a percentage of 124. This is very, very poor considering they are unbeaten. They are only outscoring the opposition by about 4 goals.

Port, on the other hand have the unbelievably high percentage of 141. And this takes into account a 6 goal loss to Essendon! They have a stingy defence, and numerous options in attack. I don't know why they are playing so well, given that their list is basically the same as last year, but they are on fire.

Hawthorn remind me a bit of Richmond in 1995. Richmond started 1995 7-0, but they only had a small percentage, and they couldn't annihilate teams. To me, it was clear, that they weren't flag contenders. They slumped as the season went on, and only won 4 of their last 12 games, including finals.

Hawthorn also remind me of Essendon in 1991. Essendon started 1991 6-0, but we only had a small percentage and it was obvious that we weren't as good as we were in 1990. We eventually slumped to lose 10 of our last 17. Hawthorn won't lose that many, but they are not in the class of Essendon or Port Adelaide at the moment.

Port and Essendon, at this stage are my favourites to play in the Grand Final.

 

[Crazy Date]

HAWTHORN V FREMANTLE

How can you compare teams from different season Dan? Just because the Tigers had a poor percentage in '95, the Hawks will bomb out too?
It's like the idiots who said that after Hawthorn won their first 5 games that Collingwood did last year too, only to lose their next 10 or whatever, so that means the Hawks will lose their next 10. WHAT A LOAD OF BULLSHIT!!

Name A quality team Port have beaten away from home this year?

 

[walshy1993]

Originally posted by Crazy Date
Name A quality team Port have beaten away from home this year?

you can only beat the opposition u have up against you and so far port have managed to do that on all bar one occasion

as for my tip for the grannie, im going to sit on the fence and say i have no idea cause seriously a lot could happen and i really cant split 6 or so teams at the moment

 

[SpecialBruce]

Port are a very good team. They will be able to beat Richmond, Carlton, Brisbane, Essendon and Hawthorn. Their midfield is good, their forwards and defence is tops. They won't lose a game at home. I said that at the start of the year and I am sticking with it. Port will make the Grand Final but I don't think they have what it takes to knock of Essendon in the Grand Final. They will beat Essendon at home in round 17 and that's all. It will be an Essendon V Port Adelaide Grand Final and Essendon will win.

 

[Grave Danger]

Things should be be clearer after round 10, when Hawthorn will have played both Essendon and Port...

 

[RogerC]

I welcome your opinion, Dan, but there is no way I am going to let predictions about our future this year sour the thrill I'm getting out of our present position. To my reckoning, we're 3 or 4 wins better than I expected, and I'm loving it.

I don't doubt Port, I reckon they're pretty good and on present form, they'd be worthy grand finallists. But it is a long season, and we'll know a lot more about it after the next few weeks.

It also depends a lot on how teams finish in the 8 prior to the finals, and especially who plays who in the preliminary finals. If by some quirk Port cops Essendon on the second last week (as. for instance, Carlton copped Essendon last year, when there was a strong case for them being the second best team in the comp), their big percentage and strong line-up will probably count for nothing.

Not a counter-argument, just a reminder that it is very early days yet.

 

[JUBJUB]

The GF preview will be played at Subiaco this sunday

 

[Dan26]

RogerC,

Fair enough. I was wrong about Port up until now (havn't we all been), so I' sure I could be wrong about the Hawks too, and they could continue their good form. I can just sense a loss coming for the Hawks, that's all. You've only just been getting over the line in recent weeks. You're a good side, but I just think you lack that overall class in the midfield. You've got some good honest players in there (with the obvious stand-out in Crawford), but I jsut don't see the Hawks winning the flag.

I see them as a clone of Richmond in 1995.

But I could be wrong.

Anyway, I have always said that the best teams doesn't necessarily win the flag. Anyone can win a one-off finals match on the day. Upsets happen. Essendon could lose the prelim again and not even make it. That's why I think the home and away premier should get more recognition as being the years best team, but that's another issue.

Have you written to Peter Jackson yet? He was on Bomber radio tonight, spinning more shit. I wish I had know he was on, or I would have rung in. I am so ****ing angry this game hasn't been moved. I've been in a rage all weekend

 

[Stealth bomber]

I tipped an Essendon-Hawthorn Grand Final back in February or March. Obviously that
tip looks good so far. But there is a long way to go.

I think Port is in better form than anybody at the moment but I am not convinced that
they will be able to go all the way if they have to play finals away from Football Park.
They have a home ground advantage that is significant. It all depends on how high
they finish and how many home finals they can draw.

At this point, I'm content to stay with my initial prediction of a 1983-84-85 GF replay.

 

[Pessimistic]

Dan,
You jusstified why port will be in the GF but you failed to justify why Essendon will be there.

Perhaps you are hoping that Carlton or Bulldogs don't make the finals.

And remember that Hawthorn beat both Carlton and Bulldogs within a week of Essendon losing to them.

Plus you can keep your 'class' in your players, I'll take the wins anyday.

But I suppose it will be clearer after round 10

 

[Sixer]

Hawthorn versus Essendon for sure.

It should be played at the Olympic stadium in Sydney and telecast world wide as a "one year on " spectacular.

 

[Dan26]

Originally posted by Pessimistic
Dan,
You jusstified why port will be in the GF but you failed to justify why Essendon will be there.

Perhaps you are hoping that Carlton or Bulldogs don't make the finals.

And remember that Hawthorn beat both Carlton and Bulldogs within a week of Essendon losing to them.

Plus you can keep your 'class' in your players, I'll take the wins anyday.

But I suppose it will be clearer after round 10

Pess,

We are sitting with a percentage of 150, with the 2nd best attack the best defence, and the best list, that is still hungry.

Do I really need to explain why Essendon will be right up there? Hawthorn will be brought down to earth with a thud in Round 9. It will be like the two games last year. We will be anxious to put this new contender in their place. It's a shame it will be at the wrong venue, which is a disgrace, but what can we do?

Time will tell with the Hawks. Time will tell.

 

[Torpedo]

The Hawks are looking really good.

I can only see improvement from now on.

 

[BUBBALOUIS]

Well my heart says Hawthorn v Essendon, my head says our disposal still needs to improve 10% for this to be a reality, our game style relys heavily on pin point accuracy and the reason sides have stuck close to us this year has been the many turnovers when our disposal has let us down. Port cant be faulted so far this season and my smokey is still Brisbane. But alot will depend on injuries, Jade Rawlings is out for 2-3 weeks with a knee, Holland has been missing for a while, its a long season and its foolish to believe sides that are travelling well now will be the ones with the form and fresh players at the end of the season

 

[Bouncer]

Yes dont discount the BEARS. I mean the Lions.

 

[Pessimistic]

Dan I was highlighting your arrogance in declaring Port better than Hawthorn and a grand finalist without at least a token justification for Essendon.

Remember wanting to win is not the same as being able to win.

 

[Blues2001]

If I had to say at this early stage, I'll predict Port v Essendon, because Port can get a home prliminary final. I thought last year that Port were a sleeping giant, and they've showed that so far. But when you look at Grand Finals, one team often makes it who you would have bet your life that they wouldn't have if asked at round 7, eg. in 97 and 98 Adelaide, Carlton in 99 and Melbourne last year. So I think it'll be definitely Essendon and any of these teams:

Port
Hawks
Richmond
Carlton
Melbourne
Collingwood
Sydney
Bulldogs
and Brisbane, only if they can get a home preliminary final, which I doubt. If they have to play a preliminary at the MCG then I really doubt they'd make it.

 

[ptw]

IMHO

based on the assumption that you really only win the flag from within the top 4 (Crows 98 being the obvious exception) I would suggest that the following teams are still in with a chance....

Hawthorn
Essendon
Port
Richmond


Clearly all of these are within reach of the 4 (funny that !). Chances are the premier will come from them....all other teams are pretty much making up the numbers at this stage.

If I look at the rest (say all those who have won at least 3 games) then it would come down to which of them have played poorly to achieve that result (ie significant room for improvement)

They would be:

Brisbane (clearly played some bad games)
Sydney (started well and have crashed)
Melbourne (I only saw 1 games last year so I don't really rate Melbourne)

These three sides have some sort of chance, but at most one of them might sneak into the 4, or in the case of Syd and Bris 5th and get a home final first week to give them some chance.

Other sides appear to pretty uch be playing to form and therefore I would not rate as any sort of premierhsip chance.

I would agree with the theme that one of Port, Hawthorn or Essendon will probably crash. I agree with Pess's view that Essendon are just as likely as Hawthorn or Port. Hawthorn are not crushing teams but they are winning when perhaps they should not (eg Crows and Saints), which I view as a good thing. I am not going to tip Port to crash so Bombers....MAYDAY MAYDAY , .

My GF tip

Essendon v Richmond.


ptw

 

[NICK THE PIE MAN]

Hawthorn Vs Port
Hopefully anyone besides Essendon and Carlton.

 

[Pessimistic]

Hawks v Essendon

Only because Hawthorn would need a huge win in round 9, be minor Premiers, then beat essendon in the GF to get any credit from Dan

 

[Pessimistic]

Hawthorn got over the line against the Saints with 5 minutes of power football right at the end. Otherwise they were 'just going'

Essendon aren't exactly perfect. They were kicking one goal for every three shots at one stage - an old 'fault' of that team

Please dan, can Essendon kick so accurately when they play the Hawks ?

 

[GoEagles]

Essendon vs Port for me too

Based on the games I have seen involving the West Coast Eagles, I think Essendon and Port Adelaide look the front runners to be playing in the last week of September. I did watch the Hawthorn game against Fremantle on TV and they didn't look like a side that can really bury a team when they are down. Still they have a great coaching team and who knows what can happen. Port look unbeatable at home and bar Essendon they have been just as impressive on the road.

 

[dees01]

The way things are going it should ba a Hawthorn v Essendon Grand Final. It will be another one sided affair, with the Dons winning by a lazy 70 points.

 

[Grendel]

Well while im not quite ready to make the assumption that we are a definte GF starter this year i do think your writing us off a little to condescendigly Daniel.

Fine, Ports form is nothing to be sneezed at, yet look a little closer to the results and the percentage is pretty easy to figure out why its fairly high.

Rnd 1 good close win over Brissie. Rnd 2 the hammering from your mob. Rnd 3 first big win over a then struggling Crows side that have since improved. Rnd 4 similar situation, hammer a side that was still not really producing very good footy in the Saints who have since shown some real improvement. Rnd 5, played a great game to humiliate the Cats, however given the last 3 weeks, that looks like a given for most sides. Rnd 6 copped an injury/suspension hit Dogs and did what they were expected to do. Rnd 7, again fronted up against perhaps the most injury hit side to come out so far this year, again they did what a good side did and put them away convincingly.

So, from 7 rounds, they have yet to play anyone aside from the Bombers that could really be considerd a 'form' side. Brissie were bad early, the Dons belted them,the Crows were not performing, neither were the Saints and the last two rounds they have been presented with soft target opposistion.

Well the Hawks have beaten last years runners up, the last two teams to inflict defeats against the competitions pace setters, put away a Freo side in thirty plus temperatures, beat a pumped up Woods when by rights we probably should have lost, and withstood serious challenges from both the Dogs (with a more balanced line up than the one Port faced) and Saints (pumped up after a previous good win, and looking a better side than the month prior) to come out with good hard fought victorys.

Well, you may be right that it will be a Port/Dons GF. But give the Hawks some credit please. A 7-0 start aint bad, this without our best player (and no mistake, Hollands our best player by some way) deserves a bit of respect. Besides, if we can copy Richmond of 95 at least we will have the pleasure of eliminating the Dons from the finals!

Cheers.

ps. for the GF? Who knows lol!

 

[sainter]

I find it interesting that so many people are prepared to have a stab at the Grand Finalists this early.

I'm certainly not going to disagree that Essendon, Port Adelaide and Hawthorn are the stand out sides at this stage. But you only have to look at past Grand Finalists to see how quickly things can change.

Looking back, you usually find at least one of the clubs makes the GF after a large sequence of wins in a row. Who would have picked St Kilda to make it after being 1-4 in 1997. Melbourne won around 10/11 matches in a row to make the GF last year.

In recent years, there is also a trend of one team flying out of the blocks before fading away badly. St Kilda in 1998, Geelong in 1999 and Collingwood in 2000 are the obvious examples.

There is a long way to go and I can't wait to see how it turns out.