Against the odds

[Niximus]

They say that the first team to 100 points wins 90% of the time.

We have been the first to 100 2 out of the last 3 weeks....and lost both.

 

[Geoffa32]

Tippett/Trigg Curse........

Some other "weird" things to happen this year

Jenkins takes his number and his kicking turns to shit and then gets injured.
Tex does his knee.
Monfries bounce
Thommo Free kick against when we had momentum against Hawthorn
WCE lose in last four minutes.

 

[spexau]

It really hasn't been our year. But we haven't helped ourselves.

 

[alex_is_on_fire]

Games are won over 120 minutes but can be last in 5 seconds.

we don't have the ability to concentrate fir the entire game and have too many spectators who watch contest after contest and leave way too much to others.

 

[Nige_Bix]

I blame two things..
Today - the last 5 minutes of the 1st 1/4 = playing catch up
Preseason - too much focus on strength training! = can't run games out

 

[Nige_Bix]

And on a day that tippett does well - really sucks!

 

[Dewy006]

And on a day that tippett does well - really sucks!

The fact that Skippett has kicked more goals than any of our forwards, in only 10 games is really just rubbing salt into an already gaping wound

 

[smoovy]

I prefer the stat that the side that reaches 30 scoring shots doesn't lose, well almost never loses.

It's 7-8 shots a qtr and its got nothing to do with the forward line. It is about midfielders getting involved forward of centre.

 

[relapse]

They say that the first team to 100 points wins 90% of the time.

We have been the first to 100 2 out of the last 3 weeks....and lost both.

Here is another unusual stat........

Since 2004 there has only been three times that a side who has finished in the top 2 at the end of the minor round has failed to make the grand final. Sadly it's been us every time (05, 06 and 2012).

 

[Slippery Pete]

Here is another unusual stat........

Since 2004 there has only been three times that a side who has finished in the top 2 at the end of the minor round has failed to make the grand final. Sadly it's been us every time (05, 06 and 2012).

Geelong in 2010.

 

[xchadders]

Geelong in 2010.

also very convenient that the poster chose 2004. 2002 and 2003 both had port in the top two and failed to make the GF both years.

 

[relapse]

also very convenient that the poster chose 2004. 2002 and 2003 both had port in the top two and failed to make the GF both years.

Yes Port did choke those years as well. The fact still remains though that we've lost 3/3 prelim finals after finishing the top 2 which is a statistical anomaly.

 

[Elder van Berlo]

They say that the first team to 100 points wins 90% of the time.

We have been the first to 100 2 out of the last 3 weeks....and lost both.

Yeh, I looked at some stats on this and worked out that it is completely bogus. The team that gets to 100 first wins some silly % (I think it's even higher than what you said, something like 98%) but in about 90-95% of games where one team gets to 100, the other doesn't.

So in games where both team reach 100 points, the win % of teams that reach that mark first is nowhere near 90%.

Our problem this year is that we have had too many games where both teams have reached 100 points - i.e. we are only running one way. The following table is how many times each team has played in games where both sides have reached 100 points this year.

4: Adelaide, Carlton, Geelong, North Melbourne
3: Port Adelaide, Western Bulldogs
2: Gold Coast, Greater Western Sydney, Melbourne, West Coast
1: Brisbane, Collingwood, Hawthorn, Richmond, Sydney, St Kilda
0: Essendon, Fremantle

The good teams don't get involved in shootouts. Geelong is the only outlier - interestingly, 3 of their 4 came in the first 4 games of the season, since which they have tightened up.

 

[headache1]

I blame two things..
Today - the last 5 minutes of the 1st 1/4 = playing catch up
Preseason - too much focus on strength training! = can't run games out

The last 5 minutes of the 3rd quarter was just as bad. We should have been slamming the door firmly shut, instead we left it open and invited them in for tea and scones.

 

[xchadders]

Yes Port did choke those years as well. The fact still remains though that we've lost 3/3 prelim finals after finishing the top 2 which is a statistical anomaly.

6 times (port x2, us x3 and geelong x1) in the last 11 years isnt really a statistical anomaly... crap and stupid and upsetting and pathetic it is though.

 

[moogerfooger]

They say that the first team to 100 points wins 90% of the time.

We have been the first to 100 2 out of the last 3 weeks....and lost both.