Age & Experience Of Our List

[The Shev]

Just having a look at our list. Age as at December 31, 2005 and games played as at Round 16, 2005. I will provide some insight soon because I have to go right now (took a while putting this list together) but it's just interesting to see how much experience certain players actually have, in particular several key position players. In a sense, we are still quite young and inexperienced, meaning our "window of opportunity" might last a bit longer than the 2005-2006 time frame which many people have given us.

261 - Neitz (30)
227 - Yze (28)
201 - White (28)
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161 - Robertson (27)
157 - Holland (28)
150 - Bizzell (29)
149 - McDonald (29)
143 - Heffernan (26)
121 - Green (24)
119 - Bruce (26)
118 - Johnstone (25)
113 - Brown (29)
106 - Rigoni (31)
105 - Nicholson (27)
100 - Whelan (26)
----------------------
99 - Ward (28)
99 - Read (26)
86 - Wheatley (24)
67 - Godfrey (25)
56 - Motlop (27)
55 - Miller (22)
51 - Williams (26)
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39 - Armstrong (21)
39 - Rivers (21)
38 - Moloney (21)
36 - Davey (22)
31 - Ferguson (24)
23 - McLean (19)
20 - Jamar (22)
19 - Sylvia (19)
13 - Carroll (25)
12 - Bell (20)
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7 - P.Johnson (21)
3 - Smith (21)
2 - Hunter (21)
2 - C.Johnson (19)
0 - Warnock (21)
0 - Van Schaik (19)
0 - Bate (18)
0 - Dunn (18)
0 - Newton (18)

 

[The Shev]

I think our list still has a lot of development and improvement left in it. But some decisions will have to be made by the club to get the best out of it. There is a heap of potential, both now and in about 3-5 years time. Let's focus on the backline first, in particular our key talls.

Carroll, Ferguson and Rivers were our three tall defenders against Sydney on the weekend. Combined they have played a total of 80 games. Yes that's right, 80 games. Their opponents were Hall, O'Loughlin and Ball (at times). Together those three have played a combined total of over 550 senior matches. Nicholson is our most experienced tall defender with 105 games, however we all know his limitations and all accept the fact that he is just there until we find a suitable replacement. The point is, we cannot be a serious title contender until we gain some experience, especially in defence. Look at Wakelin, Cornes, Michael, Leppitsch, Fletcher, Wellman, etc... the last 3 premiership winning defensive combinations. They are all big, strong men who had been around for many years at the time of that particular premiership. Until we get this, then we will not be celebrating on the last day of September. So where will it come from? Carroll is probably on his last legs, given he is 25 years old and has only managed 12 senior games and Nicholson won't have more than 2-3 years left. So we should look towards Rivers and Ferguson, two young defenders who are still very much learning the ropes. Between them they've played 68 matches, which includes only 1 final. In a few years time that number will hopefully be closer to 200, and both players will be in the 25-28 age group, generally a footballer's prime. With more maturity and experience, these two players will be able to form a much more solid combination down back. And while Bizzell, Carroll and Nicholson might be gone, the likes of Bate, Bell and Warnock will hopefully be ready to step up to the plate. But unlike Ferguson and Rivers today, those players will actually have a strong spine to play alongside. Having key, experienced players next to you as a youngster is definately beneficial for their development and also for the teams consistancy. I have no doubt Rivers will develop into a gun player. He can read the play well, zone off when necessary and take good strong marks. His weaknesses are no doubt his phyiscal strength and ability to stick right on his opponents. However, unlike football nous which is very hard to teach, phyiscal strength can be developed in a footballer, which bodes well for Rivers. Ferguson has similar characteristics to Rivers, however he is a few years older. I very much like Ferguson as a player and think he has a lot to offer us. Soon to turn 24, his prime shouldn't be too far off which will certainly gives us some solidarity down back.

*More to come*

 

[Slander]

Top posts mate it's a shame there hasn't been too much of a response.
I share your optimism. The nucleus of our potential premeirship side (for the next 3 years) is:
Player Age
Johnstone 25
Bruce 26
Green 24
Moloney 21
Sylvia 20
McLean 19
Bell 20
Whelan 26
Miller 22
Rivers 21
Ferguson 24
Davey 22

The glaring weakenesses appear to be: a key goal kicking full-forward, a solid ruckman and a shutdown key defender. However with diamonds in the rough like Bate, Dunn & P.Johnson waiting in the wings as well as further (hopefully finals) experience and potential trades I'm sure we can overcome these deficiencies and claim the premiership in the next three years.

Go Dees.

 

[BT]

I think the lack of response, might have a bit to do with the fact that the initial post provoked a fair bit of thought (for me anyway).

I've seen soooooooo many windows of opportunity for this club (84,89,95,99,01). On average every 5 years the window opens but we continually break the damn window! I'm not too sure we're in a better position than in 1989, 1995 or 2001.

Right now we are undoubtably faced with yet another huge opportunity but these players don't develop themselves. I think we need to change the structure & up the urgency.

Our defence going forward needs a full back, we need to beg borrow or steal one of these puppies sharpish. Rivers is a CHB & Ferguson is too slight. Developing a key defender will take time, so we'll have to trade for one I'd say.

 

[melbournemartin]

im still thinking hay would be alrite. he has turned into a lazy FB at hawthorn but he is good enough and definatly well built. at a new club that aint sittin at the bottom of the ladder im sure he will be pushed much futher and harder. i really like the look of the following backline

Whelan Hay Fergeson
Bizzell Rivers Bell

 

[BT]

im still thinking hay would be alrite. he has turned into a lazy FB at hawthorn but he is good enough and definatly well built. at a new club that aint sittin at the bottom of the ladder im sure he will be pushed much futher and harder. i really like the look of the following backline

Whelan Hay Fergeson
Bizzell Rivers Bell

Hay's an option...

 

[ExTasDeeMan]

Not too sure if Hay is an option, he is a West Aussie who from what i heard was always keen to play out West after Hawthorn.

But you never know how trading goes, what would we be keen to trade to Hawthorn??

 

[CowboyFromHell]

Super post Shev. Looking forward to you (hopefully) adding to this thread.

I don't want Hay though. He's getting older, he's injury prone and he's not the same player he used to be. I'd rather continue to develop our players and give them the exposure to senior footy they need, rather than bringing in a 2nd hand player.

No doubt Rivers and Ferguson will fill the key defensive spots in the future, with maybe a Dunn or a Bate getting the 3rd spot when Bizzell goes, and the other two mature more.

Also by then, we made need a small back or two. Whelan will probably still be around, but Dogga is 29 and Ward is 28. I think Bell will get a spot, as will Wheatley, but developing another small backman wouldn't hurt.

 

[melbournemartin]

hay is only 26-27 aint he? i aint really sure.

there just aint many key position defenders 'on the market'

 

[The Shev]

To continue on from my previous post...

Ferguson will be a good player for us, but whether it is as a full back or as a thirds tall remains to be seen. Many would suggest he doesn't have a strong enough frame to regularly and adequately contest against the power forwards. I tend to agree. He will soon turn 24 years old and if you aren't showings signs of bulking up at 24, then you probably never will. However, he can be the perfect third tall for us. He is a player, like Rivers, who knows when to help out a teammate in a marking contest and when to drop off his opponent and collect the loose ball. So he will certainly be very handy for us. However, the fact remains that we still need a full back. We could draft a player this year, but it could be 5-6 years before that player becomes an effective, reliable option for us. We could see how Bate and Dunn develop, but they will be the same age as a 2005 draftee, meaning they will still take a while before they mature. Or we could trade for one, just like Port Adelaide, Brisbane and Essendon did with Wakelin, Michael and Wellman. All three started at different clubs, got traded/picked up and went on to win premierships.

With the talls out the way, let's focus on our small defenders. Most teams have about 3 or 4 good running options. At the moment we have Brown, Bizzell, Whelan, Wheatley and Ward as experienced running backmen. Three of those players will be over 30 yeard old in a couple of years time, with Wheatley and Whelan the two younger ones. Whelan is a good back pocket, although the past few weeks have seen his form flutter, he generally sticks well on his way, plays a no-nonsense game, is quick, tackles well, goes in hard and has good disposal and decision making. All the elements you want from someone on your last line of defence. He will play his 100th game this week and is 25 years old. He is absolutely at the beginning of his prime, so we can expect several more quality and reliable years to come. Paul Wheatley is an interesting player. He is mid-sized so he can match up on some taller and smaller players. With a booming kick he can be valuable off the half back line, however he needs to make sure he is more accurate and makes better decisions. Similar to Whelan, he is 24 and has 88 games under his belt, so the best is yet to come. The key question is who replaces Bizzell and Brown? Their run and creativity out of the backline gets us going, and while they have their weaknesses and form slumps, overall they are good players and very important to our game plan. Both will soon be 29 years old and together they have 261 games experience. We can expect at least 1 more good year and hopefully squeeze another 1 or 2. But pretty soon they will have to be replaced. Who can replace them? Daniel Ward isn't a future option, as he is 28 years old. He will play his 100th game this weekend too. Dnaiel Bell is a likely candidate. He is 20 years old and has 12 games to his name. Bell has a solid frame and also has good endurance and speed. With these attributes he can be a very good flanker for us, but he has to ensure his disposal and decision-making remains up to standard (not that I have any queries over them at the moment). We've seen Bell in his short career show signs of courage and determination which is promising to see. He tasted 3 games last year, has had a handful more this year and next year will probably play a full season. By the time Bizzell, Brown and Ward are gone, he should be ready to become a key player for us. Chris Johnson is probably the other suitable young half-back flanker type that we have on our list. He is 19 years old and has played only 1 game so far, but is showing good signs at Sandringham. At 189cm he could have the versatility to player on a number of types, similar to Bizzell and Wheatley. I have only seen him play once, so I can't really comment on his game. But there were good raps on this kid when we drafted him, and the raps continue in the VFL. I am sure that in the next couple of years he will have a great opportunity to play lots of senior footy, and hopefully he can become the replacement for Bizzell that we need. At 19 and 20, Bell and Johnson have got their whole careers ahead of them. So as the 28-29 year olds like Bizzell, Brown and Ward begin to depart, these two should be beginning to mature into reliable senior players.

 

[davey_magik]

To continue on from my previous post...

Ferguson will be a good player for us, but whether it is as a full back or as a thirds tall remains to be seen. Many would suggest he doesn't have a strong enough frame to regularly and adequately contest against the power forwards. I tend to agree. He will soon turn 24 years old and if you aren't showings signs of bulking up at 24, then you probably never will. However, he can be the perfect third tall for us. He is a player, like Rivers, who knows when to help out a teammate in a marking contest and when to drop off his opponent and collect the loose ball. So he will certainly be very handy for us. However, the fact remains that we still need a full back. We could draft a player this year, but it could be 5-6 years before that player becomes an effective, reliable option for us. We could see how Bate and Dunn develop, but they will be the same age as a 2005 draftee, meaning they will still take a while before they mature. Or we could trade for one, just like Port Adelaide, Brisbane and Essendon did with Wakelin, Michael and Wellman. All three started at different clubs, got traded/picked up and went on to win premierships.

With the talls out the way, let's focus on our small defenders. Most teams have about 3 or 4 good running options. At the moment we have Brown, Bizzell, Whelan, Wheatley and Ward as experienced running backmen. Three of those players will be over 30 yeard old in a couple of years time, with Wheatley and Whelan the two younger ones. Whelan is a good back pocket, although the past few weeks have seen his form flutter, he generally sticks well on his way, plays a no-nonsense game, is quick, tackles well, goes in hard and has good disposal and decision making. All the elements you want from someone on your last line of defence. He will play his 100th game this week and is 25 years old. He is absolutely at the beginning of his prime, so we can expect several more quality and reliable years to come. Paul Wheatley is an interesting player. He is mid-sized so he can match up on some taller and smaller players. With a booming kick he can be valuable off the half back line, however he needs to make sure he is more accurate and makes better decisions. Similar to Whelan, he is 24 and has 88 games under his belt, so the best is yet to come. The key question is who replaces Bizzell and Brown? Their run and creativity out of the backline gets us going, and while they have their weaknesses and form slumps, overall they are good players and very important to our game plan. Both will soon be 29 years old and together they have 261 games experience. We can expect at least 1 more good year and hopefully squeeze another 1 or 2. But pretty soon they will have to be replaced. Who can replace them? Daniel Ward isn't a future option, as he is 28 years old. He will play his 100th game this weekend too. Dnaiel Bell is a likely candidate. He is 20 years old and has 12 games to his name. Bell has a solid frame and also has good endurance and speed. With these attributes he can be a very good flanker for us, but he has to ensure his disposal and decision-making remains up to standard (not that I have any queries over them at the moment). We've seen Bell in his short career show signs of courage and determination which is promising to see. He tasted 3 games last year, has had a handful more this year and next year will probably play a full season. By the time Bizzell, Brown and Ward are gone, he should be ready to become a key player for us. Chris Johnson is probably the other suitable young half-back flanker type that we have on our list. He is 19 years old and has played only 1 game so far, but is showing good signs at Sandringham. At 189cm he could have the versatility to player on a number of types, similar to Bizzell and Wheatley. I have only seen him play once, so I can't really comment on his game. But there were good raps on this kid when we drafted him, and the raps continue in the VFL. I am sure that in the next couple of years he will have a great opportunity to play lots of senior footy, and hopefully he can become the replacement for Bizzell that we need. At 19 and 20, Bell and Johnson have got their whole careers ahead of them. So as the 28-29 year olds like Bizzell, Brown and Ward begin to depart, these two should be beginning to mature into reliable senior players.

I agree with pretty much everything said there except I would like Dunn to develop in a KP forward player for us, as I hear he has a very good pair of hands and is a reliable kick.

 

[The Shev]

I agree with pretty much everything said there except I would like Dunn to develop in a KP forward player for us, as I hear he has a very good pair of hands and is a reliable kick.

I suspect he will play forward too, but I was just naming all the possible options. My midfield, ruck and forward analysis will be up within the next few days.

 

[melbournemartin]

u guys reckon there is any chance of seeing dunn or bate playing this year? also who do u rate higher?

 

[CowboyFromHell]

u guys reckon there is any chance of seeing dunn or bate playing this year? also who do u rate higher?

1. No.

2. I can't make an educated guess on that, although by the sounds of things, Bate has been more productive down at Sandy than Dunn has. But that still doesn't tell us alot.

 

[melbournemartin]

if these 2, throw in newton 2 opted to wait untill the draft at the end of THIS year, where u think they would have been taken? they would have been at the regular age, not babies like they were in this one. top 10 for dunn and bate maybe?

 

[The Shev]

Now on to thew ruck department, which is much more simple and straight forward.

Right now we have a good ruckman in Jeff White. He was an All-Australian and won the best and fairest last year, however he isn't the best ruckman in the league. He is good enough for the moment though. He is 28 years old and has played 201 games, so he is an experienced player and a 'leader' of the club. His strengths have been his athleticism, strong leap and ability to run and play as a link up man. Injuries have punished him over the years, particularly his shins. This year we have seen signs of him being worn down a bit, either because of the battering his body has taken or because he is getting old and doesn't have the endurance like he used to. At 28, after 10 years of senior footy, you can't imagine him rucking much over the age of 30. So slowly, he best is passing by and I predict that in 3 years he will be very close to the end. On our list we have two young ruckman, Jamar and Johnson. The former is 22 years old and has played 22 senior games, while the latter is 21 years old and has played 7 senior games. Both are big, strong men with a real future against them. The timing is perfect for them to start playing regularly as a back-up to Jeff White and possibly as a third tall up forward. By the time White retires in a few years, these two players will be at the beginning of their prime at 23-25 years. Now the question is which one will play? Do we regularly alternate, or did we pick one and stick with him? As of right now I think we should blood Paul Johnson. Against Fremantle he displayed great around-the-ground ability, especially in the wet which is usually harder for a big man. At 200cm and +100kg, to have that sort of mobility is rare. He should be rucking the last 5-8 minutes of every quarter, and during the rest of the quarter can play as a marking option up forward. We really need a ruckman who isn't one dimensional like White, so this is the perfect opportunity to develop one. Same thing applies for Jamar, if the time is right for him to get a game then let him spend time down forward and then help out White in the ruck. These two players will be much better for it and so will the team. Instead of playing a one-dimensional old player like Holland, who only has 1 or 2 years left in him anyway, why not bite the bullet and play a youngster down there. We've already lost two quality ruckmen in Simmonds and Jolly because they weren't given an opportunity. Hopefully we won't let the same thing happen to Johnson and Jamar.

 

[melbournemartin]

Holland was nearly our best player at CHF. problem is when Miller comes back he will go back to forward pocket and be lazy again

 

[The Shev]

Holland was nearly our best player at CHF. problem is when Miller comes back he will go back to forward pocket and be lazy again

Yep he played a great game on the weekend, and as some have pointed out he always gives us 110%. But like you said, when Miller does come back in Holland isn't half as effective as he is at centre half forward. So what do we do? Persist with an inconsistant (based on performance not effort) 28 year old with limited ability, or give an opportunity to a 21 year old with far more potential? Short term pain for a long term gain. I really like what I've seen young Johnson in the limited matches he's played, and I particularly like his ground work for a big fella. I think he has some real potential to be a valuable ruck/forward and only needs some regular game time to display it. Jamar, however, is a bit worrying as he hasn't displayed as much potential over the last 3 years at the club.