Algorithm revisited, after finals, week 3

[Vikingnz]

Ladder is an interesting addition thanks Hobbes! Based off that there's value in Port for Top 4 at $4.25 but this week I've gone with Gold Coast to make the 8 at $6.50.

 

[Hobbes]

Ladder is an interesting addition thanks Hobbes! Based off that there's value in Port for Top 4 at $4.25 but this week I've gone with Gold Coast to make the 8 at $6.50.

I'd say the Port bet is a fair one, but I'm not so sure about GC. There will be a lot of competition for 8th place.

 

[roacheee]

1. Adelaide 17.3
2. GWS 16.3
3. Geelong 15.3
4. Port Adelaide 14.7
5. Richmond 14.6
6. West Coast 13.9
7. Western Bulldogs 13.8


This looks like seven settled finalists

be still my beating heart, please don't tease

 

[Hobbes]

Port Adelaide +35 v Carlton
Western Bulldogs +41 v Brisbane
Gold Coast v Adelaide +18
Sydney v GWS +19
Fremantle +11 v North Melbourne
St Kilda v Geelong +17
Hawthorn v West Coast +28
Richmond +14 v Melbourne
Essendon v Collingwood +9

7/9.

1. Adelaide 33.0 (+1)
2. GWS 27.8 (-1)
3. Geelong 22.5 (+1)
4. Port Adelaide 19.9
5. Bulldogs 9.0 (+1)
6. Richmond 8.3 (+1)
7. West Coast 0.5 (-2)
8. Sydney 0.0
9. Essendon -4.01 (+5)
10. Melbourne -4.04 (+2)
11. St Kilda -5.3 (-2)
12. Collingwood -6.45 (-2)
13. Fremantle -6.49
14. Gold Coast -7.2 (-3)
15. North Melbourne -9.7
16. Hawthorn -12.6 (+2)
17. Carlton -20.2 (-1)
18. Brisbane -22.6 (-1)

A lot of movement in the bunch from 9th-14th, but this is mostly just large positional shuffles from small changes in ratings. Adelaide, GWS, Geelong and Port are clearing out from the pack. West Coast took a massive tumble after being beaten up by the bottom team. Richmond and the Bulldogs are doing OK, but neither has really impressed with either their margins or the quality of their opponents. They'll probably make the finals, but I think the current ladder is flattering them both.

GWS +24 v Bulldogs
Hawthorn v St Kilda +7
Carlton v Sydney +10
Brisbane v Port +33
North Melbourne +4 v Gold Coast
West Coast +7 v Fremantle
Essendon +1 v Melbourne
Geelong +29 v Collingwood
Adelaide +31 v Richmond

Frankly, I have Melbourne and Essendon at virtually the same rating, but i have to pick someone, and Essendon has an edge of 0.03 points.

And the probablistic ladder

1. Adelaide 19.2
2. GWS 17.3
3. Geelong 16.6
4. Port Adelaide 16.2
5. Richmond 14.4
6. Western Bulldogs 13.4
7. West Coast 10.9
8. Essendon 10.6
9. Fremantle 10.2
10. Melbourne 9.7
11. Gold Coast 9.5
12. St Kilda 9.3
13. Sydney 8.9
14. Collingwood 8.0
15. North Melbourne 7.3
16. Hawthorn 7.0
17. Carlton 5.7
18. Brisbane 5.0

Port have a decent draw this year, and it feels to me like there's good odds around for them to make the 4. They've played the two toughest teams for honourable losses, and despatched their other opponents with ease.

West Coast's drubbing at the hands of Hawthorn really leaves open the idea that they're no certainty for the finals. I guess the question is which of the other teams in contention will lift.

 

[Hobbes]

GWS +24 v Bulldogs
Hawthorn v St Kilda +7
Carlton v Sydney +10
Brisbane v Port +33
North Melbourne +4 v Gold Coast
West Coast +7 v Fremantle
Essendon +1 v Melbourne
Geelong +29 v Collingwood
Adelaide +31 v Richmond

6/9. I don't think anybody saw Collingwood coming.

1. Adelaide 37.1
2. Port Adelaide 26.4 (+2)
3. GWS 25.5 (-1)
4. Geelong 13.6 (-1)
5. Bulldogs 8.8
6. Richmond 5.3
7. West Coast 2.5
8. St Kilda 1.7 (+3)
9. Collingwood 0.11 (+3)
10. Melbourne 0.05
11. Sydney -5.6 (-3)
12. Essendon -8.4 (-3)
13. Gold Coast -8.7 (+1)
14. North Melbourne -9.7 (+1)
15. Fremantle -10.9 (-2)
16. Carlton -15.4 (+1)
17. Hawthorn -22.0 (-1)
18. Brisbane -27.7

Collingwood, St Kilda and Melbourne put their hands up for finals consideration. Port are looking like a serious contender.

St Kilda v Giants +19
North Melbourne v Adelaide +40
Collingwood +15 v Carlton
Port Adelaide +37 v West Coast
Gold Coast v Geelong +16
Bulldogs +4 v Richmond
Sydney +31 v Brisbane
Melbourne +22 v Hawthorn
Fremantle +6 v Essendon

And the predictive ladder

1. Adelaide 19.7
2. GWS 17.4
3. Port Adelaide 17.3
4. Geelong 14.5
5. Richmond 14.1
6. Bulldogs 13.2
7. West Coast 11.5
8. St Kilda 10.9
9. Melbourne 10.7
10. Collingwood 10.0
11. Essendon 9.4
12. Fremantle 9.3
13. Gold Coast 8.8
14. North Melbourne 7.64
15. Sydney 7.59
16. Carlton 7.3
17. Hawthorn 5.3
18. Brisbane 4.3

 

[Bulldog Joe]

GWS +24 v Bulldogs
Hawthorn v St Kilda +7
Carlton v Sydney +10
Brisbane v Port +33
North Melbourne +4 v Gold Coast
West Coast +7 v Fremantle
Essendon +1 v Melbourne
Geelong +29 v Collingwood
Adelaide +31 v Richmond

6/9. I don't think anybody saw Collingwood coming.

1. Adelaide 37.1
2. Port Adelaide 26.4 (+2)
3. GWS 25.5 (-1)
4. Geelong 13.6 (-1)
5. Bulldogs 8.8
6. Richmond 5.3
7. West Coast 2.5
8. St Kilda 1.7 (+3)
9. Collingwood 0.11 (+3)
10. Melbourne 0.05
11. Sydney -5.6 (-3)
12. Essendon -8.4 (-3)
13. Gold Coast -8.7 (+1)
14. North Melbourne -9.7 (+1)
15. Fremantle -10.9 (-2)
16. Carlton -15.4 (+1)
17. Hawthorn -22.0 (-1)
18. Brisbane -27.7

Collingwood, St Kilda and Melbourne put their hands up for finals consideration. Port are looking like a serious contender.

St Kilda v Giants +19
North Melbourne v Adelaide +40
Collingwood +15 v Carlton
Port Adelaide +37 v West Coast
Gold Coast v Geelong +16
Bulldogs +4 v Richmond
Sydney +31 v Brisbane
Melbourne +22 v Hawthorn
Fremantle +6 v Essendon

And the predictive ladder

1. Adelaide 19.7
2. GWS 17.4
3. Port Adelaide 17.3
4. Geelong 14.5
5. Richmond 14.1
6. Bulldogs 13.2
7. West Coast 11.5
8. St Kilda 10.9
9. Melbourne 10.7
10. Collingwood 10.0
11. Essendon 9.4
12. Fremantle 9.3
13. Gold Coast 8.8
14. North Melbourne 7.64
15. Sydney 7.59
16. Carlton 7.3
17. Hawthorn 5.3
18. Brisbane 4.3

I am seriously interested in how these things work.

As I Bulldog supporter, I was very encouraged by our performance against GWS. We also did better than your prediction, but drop away slightly on your model.

I get that 3 of our 2017 opponents fell so devalues our games against them, but 2 of our opponents rose which should add value.

Richmond, received an absolute pasting, but only declined a similar amount.

 

[SBYM]

Is Roby still kicking?

 

[Hobbes]

I am seriously interested in how these things work.

As I Bulldog supporter, I was very encouraged by our performance against GWS. We also did better than your prediction, but drop away slightly on your model.

I get that 3 of our 2017 opponents fell so devalues our games against them, but 2 of our opponents rose which should add value.

Richmond, received an absolute pasting, but only declined a similar amount.

There's lots going on in the ratings. It would take me ages to figure it out exactly.

The result against GWS was ahead of par, but only mildly so. I'd expect a result like this to move them up about half a point. But the sterling results from last year's final series are moving further away, which will affect it a bit. But there was also an inflationary effect because I rated every bye in the finals as a null result, rating as zero. For many teams, this was better than their average rating, so the initial team ratings added up to a lot more than zero. The amount is going down by a bit every week, and the effect should have vanished completely when 13 rounds have been played.

Richmond's result didn't have as big an effect as it looks. The margin crunches down to 63 (I halve the excess over 50) and then down to 57 for the away game. Adelaide, having crunched everybody this year, has a rating of 37, which might be the highest I've seen, so it rates as a -19 result, similar to a small win against Brisbane. In comparison, Geelong rated at -28 for the loss to Collingwood. Despite the magnitude of the result, six teams this round (Sydney, Hawthorn, Essendon, Geelong, Brisbane and Fremantle) were actually rated as having a worse result than Richmond.

 

[Hobbes]

St Kilda v Giants +19
North Melbourne v Adelaide +40
Collingwood +15 v Carlton
Port Adelaide +37 v West Coast
Gold Coast v Geelong +16
Bulldogs +4 v Richmond
Sydney+31 v Brisbane
Melbourne +22 v Hawthorn
Fremantle +6 v Essendon

Well, this was the round where tips go to die. Thankfully, the Bulldogs and Fremantle recovered enough to stop me from going 1-8. I guess time will tell whether these results were a form shift or a temporary aberration.

1. Adelaide 24.1
2. GWS 21.1 (+1)
3 Port Adelaide 19.4 (-1)
4. West Coast 10.9 (+3)
5. Bulldogs 9.9
6. Geelong 8.8 (-2)
7. St Kilda 7.7 (+1)
8. North Melbourne 6.2 (+6)
9. Richmond 2.3 (-3)
10. Gold Coast -1.9 (+3)
11. Sydney -4.7
12. Melbourne -4.8 (2)
13. Fremantle -4.9 (+2)
14. Collingwood -6.2 (-5)
15. Carlton -11.8 (+1)
16. Essendon -15.8 (-4)
17. Hawthorn -18.2
18. Brisbane -32.2

Adelaide still first, but falling back quickly to the field on the back of Saturday's shocker. West Coast, St Kilda, Gold Coast and North Melbourne have risen sharply on their upset wins.

West Coast +10 v Bulldogs
Hawthorn +20 v Brisbane
St Kilda +20 v Carlton
GWS +32 v Collingwood
Essendon v Geelong +25
Adelaide +35 v Melbourne
Richmond +16 v Fremantle
Gold Coast v Port Adelaide +11
North Melbourne +16 v Sydney

And the predictive ladder

1. Adelaide 17.5
2. GWS 16.1
3. Port Adelaide 15.4
4. West Coast 13.9
5. Bulldogs 13.8
6. Geelong 13.5
7. Richmond 12.9
8. St Kilda 12.3
9. North Melbourne 11.0
10. Fremantle 10.6
11. Gold Coast 10.4
12. Melbourne 9.2
13. Collingwood 8.5
14. Carlton 8.4
15. Essendon 7.9
16. Sydney 7.7
17. Hawthorn 6.5
18. Brisbane 3.5

 

[Vikingnz]

Big difference this week between the algorithm and betting market for the Hawks - Lions. If I were braver I'd take the Lions @ $7.50, but instead I'm hoping they can cover a massive 42.5 line.

 

[Hobbes]

West Coast +10 v Bulldogs
Hawthorn +20 v Brisbane
St Kilda +20 v Carlton
GWS +32 v Collingwood
Essendon v Geelong +25
Adelaide +35 v Melbourne
Richmond +16 v Fremantle
Gold Coast v Port Adelaide +11
North Melbourne +16 v Sydney

5/9. This year is making very little sense, although the people who claimed it was a very even year when the ladder didn't suggest it after round 5 or 6 are increasingly vindicated.

1. Port Adelaide 24.0 (+2)
2. GWS 16.1
3. West Coast 12.0 (+1)
4. Adelaide 11.2 (-3)
5. Bulldogs 8.8
6. St Kilda 8.7 (+1)
7. Melbourne 7.1 (+5)
8. Geelong 2.4 (-2)
9. Sydney 1.9 (+2)
10. Fremantle 0.0 (+3)
11. Richmond -0.7 (-2)
12. Collingwood -2.4 (+2)
13. North Melbourne -4.7 (-5)
14. Essendon -8.8 (+2)
15. Carlton -9.0
16. Gold Coast -10.6 (-6)
17. Hawthorn -15.2
18. Brisbane -34.1

Note that, atypically, I didn't apply any home ground advantage to Gold Coast v Port. (I think I did in my predictions, but I shouldn't have). The algorithm is liking Port's thumpings of the weaker teams a lot. (Note that there's no home state bias here - as an ex-Glenelg Adelaide fan, I hate Port).

I'll be dealing differently with the bye this year, assigning each team a null result for its bye - this will have the effect of bringing them closer to zero with the match off.

Geelong v Bulldogs +6
St Kilda +13 v Sydney
GWS +22 v Richmond
Brisbane v Adelaide +35
Collingwood +13 v Hawthorn
Essendon v West Coast +12
Melbourne +12 v North Melbourne
Fremantle +18 v Carlton

And the predictive ladder.

1. Port Adelaide 16.5
2. GWS 15.5
3. Adelaide 14.52
4. West Coast 14.46
5. Bulldogs 13.3
6. St Kilda 12.8
7. Fremantle 12.2
8. Melbourne 12.00
9. Geelong 11.99
10. Richmond 11.9
11. Essendon 9.8
12. Sydney 9.4
13. Collingwood 8.7
14. Carlton 8.6
15. Gold Coast 8.5
16. North Melbourne 8.4
17. Hawthorn 7.4
18. Brisbane 3.1

Geelong are really poorly placed, despite their 5-0 start - they have matches coming up against Bulldogs, Port, Adelaide, West Coast, Adelaide (twice) and GWS (twice), none of whom they have played yet.

 

[Hobbes]

Geelong v Bulldogs +6
St Kilda +13 v Sydney
GWS +22 v Richmond
Brisbane v Adelaide +35
Collingwood +13 v Hawthorn
Essendon v West Coast +12
Melbourne +12 v North Melbourne
Fremantle +18 v Carlton

This ridiculous season isn't getting easier for tipsters. 4/8.

1. Port Adelaide 18.9
2. Adelaide 16.4 (+2)
3. GWS 12.1 (-1)
4. Sydney 8.5 (+5)
5. Melbourne 6.7 (+2)
6. Geelong 6.5 (+2)
7. Fremantle 3.3 (+3)
8. Bulldogs 3.0 (-3)
9. West Coast 1.8 (-6)
10. Essendon 1.7 (+4)
11. North Melbourne 1.4 (+2)
12. Richmond 0.2 (-1)
13. Collingwood -1.67 (-1)
14. St Kilda -1.73 (-8)
15. Gold Coast -8.8 (+1)
16. Carlton -11.3 (-1)
17. Hawthorn -18.6
18. Brisbane -39.5

It looks silly that Port's rating has dropped a bit from the bye. I'm inserting a zero result as the bye this year, and teams with the bye will find their ratings wander in the direction of zero, probably to the tune of about 20%. Consider the bye something which might arrest a run of form (good or bad).

In the middle of the table, it's carnage. Essentially, there's so little margin between 7th and 14th that teams can tumble half the length of the ladder in a round.

Geelong v Port +6
Sydney +31 v Hawthorn
Bulldogs +5 v St Kilda
Melbourne +22 v Gold Coast
Richmond v Essendon +2
Adelaide +26 v Fremantle
Collingwood +44 v Brisbane
Carlton v North Melbourne +13
West Coast +3 v GWS

And the predicted ladder:

1. Adelaide 15.4
2. GWS 15.3
3. Port Adelaide 14.9
4. Geelong 13.2
5. Fremantle 12.85
6. West Coast 12.79
7. Bulldogs 12.1
8. Essendon 11.82
9. Richmond 11.75
10. Melbourne 11.5
11. Sydney 10.9
12. St Kilda 10.6
13. North Melbourne 10.1
14. Collingwood 9.2
15. Gold Coast 8.9
16. Carlton 8.0
17. Hawthorn 6.5
18. Brisbane 2.3

 

[Hobbes]

Geelong v Port +6
Sydney +31 v Hawthorn
Bulldogs +5 v St Kilda
Melbourne +22 v Gold Coast
Richmond v Essendon +2
Adelaide +26 v Fremantle
Collingwood +44 v Brisbane
Carlton v North Melbourne +13
West Coast +3 v GWS

Darn. Three of the 50/50 matches flipped the wrong way.

1. Adelaide 23.6 (+1)
2. Port Adelaide 16.7 (-1)
3. GWS 13.1
4. Melbourne 10.6 (+1)
5. Geelong 8.3 (+1)
6. Bulldogs 7.2 (+2)
7. Sydney 3.00 (-3)
8. Richmond 2.97 (+4)
9. North Melbourne 2.7 (+2)
10. Essendon 0.2
11. West Coast -0.3 (-2)
12. Collingwood -1.0 (+1)
13. Fremantle -3.5 (-6)
14. St Kilda -7.4
15. Gold Coast -10.1
16. Hawthorn -11.4 (+1)
17. Carlton -14.3 (-1)
18. Brisbane -39.5

Still all over the place in the middle of the ladder.

Port Adelaide +34 v Hawthorn
Geelong v Adelaide +9
Gold Coast +3 v West Coast
GWS +18 v Essendon
North Melbourne v Richmond +1 (almost a tie, but I have to pick somebody)
Fremantle +7 v Collingwood

And the predictive ladder

1. Adelaide 16.5
2. GWS 15.9
3. Geelong 13.89
4. Port Adelaide 13.87
5. Bulldogs 13.0
6. Richmond 12.8
7. Melbourne 12.3
8. West Coast 12.1
9. Fremantle 11.8
10. Essendon 11.2
11. North Melbourne 10.7
12. St Kilda 9.5
13. Sydney 9.3
14. Collingwood 9.2
15. Gold Coast 8.6
16. Hawthorn 8.1
17. Carlton 7.1
18. Brisbane 2.2

 

[Hobbes]

Port Adelaide +34 v Hawthorn
Geelong v Adelaide +9
Gold Coast +3 v West Coast (You heard it here first!)
GWS +18 v Essendon
North Melbourne v Richmond +1 (almost a tie, but I have to pick somebody)
Fremantle +7 v Collingwood

4/6, but feeling slightly smug about getting very close to the GWS margin, and extremely smug about getting the GC margin exactly right.

1. Port Adelaide 20.5 (+1)
2. Adelaide 19.5 (-1)
3. GWS 13.9
4. Geelong 13.6 (+1)
5. Melbourne 8.6 (-1)
6. Richmond 7.6 (+2)
7. Bulldogs 7.2 (-1)
8. Collingwood 5.0 (+5)
9. Sydney 3.2 (-2)
10. Essendon 2.0
11. West Coast -1
12. North Melbourne -2.6 (-3)
13. St Kilda -5.7 (+1)
14. Fremantle -7.3 (-1)
15. Gold Coast -9.6
16. Hawthorn -11.7
17. Carlton -12.2
18. Brisbane -33.0

Sydney +1 v Western Bulldogs
Adelaide +31 v St Kilda
Hawthorn +4 v Gold Coast
Brisbane v Fremantle +13
Essendon v Port Adelaide +12
Carlton v GWS +21
Melbourne +4 v Collingwood

And the predictive ladder.

1. GWS 16.1 (+1)
2. Adelaide 15.3 (-1)
3. Geelong 15.0
4. Port Adelaide 14.4
5. Richmond 13.6 (+1)
6. Western Bulldogs 13.0 (-1)
7. Melbourne 11.9
8. West Coast 11.4
9. Essendon 11.0 (+1)
10. Fremantle 10.7 (-1)
11. Collingwood 10.5 (+4)
12. St Kilda 9.7
13. North Melbourne 9.4 (-2)
14. Sydney 9.2 (-1)
15. Gold Coast 8.9
16. Hawthorn 7.8
17. Carlton 7.2
18. Brisbane 2.8

 

[Hobbes]

This is hilarious. I know that the round isn't ended so these ratings aren't official (they assume a draw in tomorrow's match), my computer currently thinks the second best team is: Essendon!

1. Adelaide 21.8 (+1)
2. Essendon 11.2 (+8)
3. Geelong 10.8 (+1)
4. GWS 10.3 (-1)
5. Port Adelaide 9.6 (-4)
6. Sydney 9.3 (+3)
7. Melbourne 8.7 (-2)
8. Richmond 6.8 (-1)
9. Collingwood 5.6 (-1)
10. Western Bulldogs -0.4 (-3)
11. North Melbourne -1.8 (+1)
12. West Coast -2.5 (-1)
13. Gold Coast -7.8 (+2)
14. Carlton -9.1 (+3)
15. St Kilda -9.8 (-2)
16. Hawthorn -14.7
17. Fremantle -16.0 (-3)
18. Brisbane -24.0

I won't type out the whole predicted ladder, but I can report that the current predicted 8 is (in order): Adelaide, GWS, Geelong, Richmond, Port Adelaide, Essendon, Melbourne, Bulldogs.

 

[Hobbes]

Sydney +1 v Western Bulldogs
Adelaide +31 v St Kilda
Hawthorn +4 v Gold Coast
Brisbane v Fremantle +13
Essendon v Port Adelaide +12
Carlton v GWS +21
Melbourne +4 v Collingwood

3/7 in a death round for tipsters. (There must be people who got 1/7, with only Adelaide correct). Feeling smug getting a margin spot on for the second week running - thanks Melbourne.

1. Adelaide 21.9 (+1)
2. Essendon 11.2 (+8)!!
3. Geelong 10.8 (+1)
4. GWS 10.2 (-1)
5. Melbourne 9.9
6. Port Adelaide 9.6 (-5)
7. Sydney 9.2 (+2)
8. Richmond 6.8 (-2)
9. Collingwood 4.4 (-1)
10. Western Bulldogs -0.5 (-3)
11. North Melbourne -1.6 (+1)
12. West Coast -2.5 (-1)
13. Gold Coast -7.6 (+2)
14. Carlton -9.2 (+3)
15. St Kilda -9.9 (-2)
16. Hawthorn -14.7
17. Fremantle -16.1 (-3)
18. Brisbane -24.1

Essendon's surprise thumping of Port Adelaide lifts them eight places and drops Port five places.

West Coast v Geelong +4
North Melbourne +8 v St Kilda
Richmond +3 v Sydney
Port Adelaide +42 v Brisbane
Gold Coast +8 v Carlton
Bulldogs v Melbourne +10

And the predictive ladder

1. Adelaide 15.8 (+1)
2. GWS 15.2 (-1)
3. Geelong 14.6
4. Richmond 13.7 (+1)
5. Port Adelaide 12.7 (-1)
6. Melbourne 12.60 (+1)
7. Essendon 12.56 (+2)
8. Western Bulldogs 11.6 (-2)
9. West Coast 11.4 (-1)
10. Sydney 10.5 (+4)
11. Collingwood 10.1
12. North Melbourne 9.7 (+1)
13. Fremantle 9.2 (-3)
14. St Kilda 9.1 (-2)
15. Gold Coast 8.7
16. Carlton 8.1 (+1)
17. Hawthorn 7.1
18. Brisbane 4.4

There aren't many teams - probably just Adelaide, GWS and Geelong (maybe Richmond) which can take their participation in the finals for granted. Maybe Bulldogs fans fancy their chances from eighth, but they haven't finished as high as 8th yet.

 

[Gysberts2Bate]

Sydney +1 v Western Bulldogs
Adelaide +31 v St Kilda
Hawthorn +4 v Gold Coast
Brisbane v Fremantle +13
Essendon v Port Adelaide +12
Carlton v GWS +21
Melbourne +4 v Collingwood

3/7 in a death round for tipsters. (There must be people who got 1/7, with only Adelaide correct). Feeling smug getting a margin spot on for the second week running - thanks Melbourne.

1. Adelaide 21.9 (+1)
2. Essendon 11.2 (+8)!!
3. Geelong 10.8 (+1)
4. GWS 10.2 (-1)
5. Melbourne 9.9
6. Port Adelaide 9.6 (-5)
7. Sydney 9.2 (+2)
8. Richmond 6.8 (-2)
9. Collingwood 4.4 (-1)
10. Western Bulldogs -0.5 (-3)
11. North Melbourne -1.6 (+1)
12. West Coast -2.5 (-1)
13. Gold Coast -7.6 (+2)
14. Carlton -9.2 (+3)
15. St Kilda -9.9 (-2)
16. Hawthorn -14.7
17. Fremantle -16.1 (-3)
18. Brisbane -24.1

Essendon's surprise thumping of Port Adelaide lifts them eight places and drops Port five places.

West Coast v Geelong +4
North Melbourne +8 v St Kilda
Richmond +3 v Sydney
Port Adelaide +42 v Brisbane
Gold Coast +8 v Carlton
Bulldogs v Melbourne +10

And the predictive ladder

1. Adelaide 15.8 (+1)
2. GWS 15.2 (-1)
3. Geelong 14.6
4. Richmond 13.7 (+1)
5. Port Adelaide 12.7 (-1)
6. Melbourne 12.60 (+1)
7. Essendon 12.56 (+2)
8. Western Bulldogs 11.6 (-2)
9. West Coast 11.4 (-1)
10. Sydney 10.5 (+4)
11. Collingwood 10.1
12. North Melbourne 9.7 (+1)
13. Fremantle 9.2 (-3)
14. St Kilda 9.1 (-2)
15. Gold Coast 8.7
16. Carlton 8.1 (+1)
17. Hawthorn 7.1
18. Brisbane 4.4

There aren't many teams - probably just Adelaide, GWS and Geelong (maybe Richmond) which can take their participation in the finals for granted. Maybe Bulldogs fans fancy their chances from eighth, but they haven't finished as high as 8th yet.

Your predictive ladder matches most of the current ladder

 

[Skipper_]

Sydney +1 v Western Bulldogs
Adelaide +31 v St Kilda
Hawthorn +4 v Gold Coast
Brisbane v Fremantle +13
Essendon v Port Adelaide +12
Carlton v GWS +21
Melbourne +4 v Collingwood

3/7 in a death round for tipsters. (There must be people who got 1/7, with only Adelaide correct). Feeling smug getting a margin spot on for the second week running - thanks Melbourne.

1. Adelaide 21.9 (+1)
2. Essendon 11.2 (+8)!!
3. Geelong 10.8 (+1)
4. GWS 10.2 (-1)
5. Melbourne 9.9
6. Port Adelaide 9.6 (-5)
7. Sydney 9.2 (+2)
8. Richmond 6.8 (-2)
9. Collingwood 4.4 (-1)
10. Western Bulldogs -0.5 (-3)
11. North Melbourne -1.6 (+1)
12. West Coast -2.5 (-1)
13. Gold Coast -7.6 (+2)
14. Carlton -9.2 (+3)
15. St Kilda -9.9 (-2)
16. Hawthorn -14.7
17. Fremantle -16.1 (-3)
18. Brisbane -24.1

Essendon's surprise thumping of Port Adelaide lifts them eight places and drops Port five places.

West Coast v Geelong +4
North Melbourne +8 v St Kilda
Richmond +3 v Sydney
Port Adelaide +42 v Brisbane
Gold Coast +8 v Carlton
Bulldogs v Melbourne +10

And the predictive ladder

1. Adelaide 15.8 (+1)
2. GWS 15.2 (-1)
3. Geelong 14.6
4. Richmond 13.7 (+1)
5. Port Adelaide 12.7 (-1)
6. Melbourne 12.60 (+1)
7. Essendon 12.56 (+2)
8. Western Bulldogs 11.6 (-2)
9. West Coast 11.4 (-1)
10. Sydney 10.5 (+4)
11. Collingwood 10.1
12. North Melbourne 9.7 (+1)
13. Fremantle 9.2 (-3)
14. St Kilda 9.1 (-2)
15. Gold Coast 8.7
16. Carlton 8.1 (+1)
17. Hawthorn 7.1
18. Brisbane 4.4

There aren't many teams - probably just Adelaide, GWS and Geelong (maybe Richmond) which can take their participation in the finals for granted. Maybe Bulldogs fans fancy their chances from eighth, but they haven't finished as high as 8th yet.

Lord let this come true.

 

[Hobbes]

West Coast v Geelong +4
North Melbourne +8 v St Kilda
Richmond +3 v Sydney
Port Adelaide +42 v Brisbane
Gold Coast +8 v Carlton
Bulldogs v Melbourne +10

The wavering form of about half the competition isn't doing me any favours. 2/6. Bring on the proper nine match rounds.

1. Adelaide 18.3
2. Melbourne 15.2 (+3)
3. Sydney 11.1 (+4)
4. Essendon 9.8 (-2)
5. GWS 8.2 (-1)
6. Port Adelaide 8.1
7. Geelong 7.0 (-4)
8. Collingwood 5.1 (+1)
9. Richmond 4.2 (-1)
10. West Coast -2.0 (+2)
11. North Melbourne -5.4
12. Carlton -6.8 (+2)
13. Western Bulldogs -7.6 (-3)
14. St Kilda -8.1 (+1)
15. Gold Coast -9.6 (-2)
16. Hawthorn -11.9
17. Fremantle -14.3
18. Brisbane -23.2

Adelaide +37 v Hawthorn
Sydney +6 v Essendon
Collingwood +3 v Port
Brisbane v GWS +22
Bulldogs v North Melbourne +2
West Coast +12 v Melbourne
Geelong +30 v Fremantle
Richmond +11 v Carlton
St Kilda +8 v Gold Coast

And the predictive ladder

1. Adelaide 15.5
2. GWS 15.0
3. Geelong 13.7
4. Melbourne 13.6 (+2)
5. Richmond 12.9 (-1)
6. Port Adelaide 12.7 (-1)
7. Essendon 12.5
8. West Coast 12.0 (+1)
9. Sydney 11.2 (+1)
10. Western Bulldogs 10.5 (-2)
11. Collingwood 10.2
12. St Kilda 9.9 (+2)
13. Fremantle 9.4
14. Gold Coast 9.04 (+1)
15. Carlton 8.97 (+1)
16. North Melbourne 8.7 (-3)
17. Hawthorn 7.6
18. Brisbane 4.6

 

[Gavin Excell]

West Coast v Geelong +4
North Melbourne +8 v St Kilda
Richmond +3 v Sydney
Port Adelaide +42 v Brisbane
Gold Coast +8 v Carlton
Bulldogs v Melbourne +10

The wavering form of about half the competition isn't doing me any favours. 2/6. Bring on the proper nine match rounds.

1. Adelaide 18.3
2. Melbourne 15.2 (+3)
3. Sydney 11.1 (+4)
4. Essendon 9.8 (-2)
5. GWS 8.2 (-1)
6. Port Adelaide 8.1
7. Geelong 7.0 (-4)
8. Collingwood 5.1 (+1)
9. Richmond 4.2 (-1)
10. West Coast -2.0 (+2)
11. North Melbourne -5.4
12. Carlton -6.8 (+2)
13. Western Bulldogs -7.6 (-3)
14. St Kilda -8.1 (+1)
15. Gold Coast -9.6 (-2)
16. Hawthorn -11.9
17. Fremantle -14.3
18. Brisbane -23.2

Adelaide +37 v Hawthorn
Sydney +6 v Essendon
Collingwood +3 v Port
Brisbane v GWS +22
Bulldogs v North Melbourne +2
West Coast +12 v Melbourne
Geelong +30 v Fremantle
Richmond +11 v Carlton
St Kilda +8 v Gold Coast

And the predictive ladder

1. Adelaide 15.5
2. GWS 15.0
3. Geelong 13.7
4. Melbourne 13.6 (+2)
5. Richmond 12.9 (-1)
6. Port Adelaide 12.7 (-1)
7. Essendon 12.5
8. West Coast 12.0 (+1)
9. Sydney 11.2 (+1)
10. Western Bulldogs 10.5 (-2)
11. Collingwood 10.2
12. St Kilda 9.9 (+2)
13. Fremantle 9.4
14. Gold Coast 9.04 (+1)
15. Carlton 8.97 (+1)
16. North Melbourne 8.7 (-3)
17. Hawthorn 7.6
18. Brisbane 4.6

Im reading this thread for the first time.

With all due respect your tipping is atrocious

 

[Hobbes]

Im reading this thread for the first time.

With all due respect your tipping is atrocious

Long-term predictive capabilities are kind of comparable to the squiggle - Final Siren has done extensive historical testing. There are a couple of modifications this year which are untested, mostly concerning the handling of bye rounds (including finals rounds which a team doesn't play). Really though, the problem is that this has been a bastard of a year for tipsters in general.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Long-term predictive capabilities are kind of comparable to the squiggle - Final Siren has done extensive historical testing. There are a couple of modifications this year which are untested, mostly concerning the handling of bye rounds (including finals rounds which a team doesn't play). Really though, the problem is that this has been a bastard of a year for tipsters in general.

Indeed

 

[Bokonon_]

Long-term predictive capabilities are kind of comparable to the squiggle - Final Siren has done extensive historical testing. There are a couple of modifications this year which are untested, mostly concerning the handling of bye rounds (including finals rounds which a team doesn't play). Reaoly though, the problem is that this has been a bastard of a year for tipsters in general.

Would think the ladder is likely to be more accurate than indiviidual results?
I think the interesting thing is statistical analysis can see through hype and perceptions. I find it interesting that the Bombers are in and Melbourne is out of the 8. I think the Bombers are underrated based on what I've seen. I assume Melbourne is just averaging their season and including some bad games.

 

[Hobbes]

Adelaide +37 v Hawthorn
Sydney +6 v Essendon
Collingwood +3 v Port
Brisbane v GWS +22
Bulldogs v North Melbourne +2
West Coast +12 v Melbourne
Geelong +30 v Fremantle
Richmond +11 v Carlton
St Kilda +8 v Gold Coast

I don't know what drugs my computer was on when I typed WC+12, but it should have been Melbourne+8. I must have been reading something from the wrong place. Anyway, 5/9, should have been 6/9.

1. Melbourne 14.7 (+1)
2. Sydney 13.3 (+1)
3. GWS 13.2 (+2)
4. Port Adelaide 12.1 (+2)
5. Essendon 11.4 (-1)
6. Adelaide 10.7 (-5)
7. Richmond 6.7 (+2)
8. Geelong 2.5 (-1)
9. Collingwood 1.0 (-1)
10. West Coast -2.2
11. Hawthorn -5.2 (+5)
12. St Kilda -5.8 (+2)
13. North Melbourne -6.6 (-2)
14. Western Bulldogs -7.0 (-1)
15. Carlton -8.3 (-3)
16. Gold Coast -12.6 (-1)
17. Fremantle -13.3
18. Brisbane -26.7

Adelaide's third shocker in 7 matches (I'm not counting Geelong) took its toll, and they dropped sharply. Still placed OK for top four, but no longer a certainty.

Melbourne +6 v Sydney
Western Bulldogs +4 v West Coast
Carlton v Adelaide +13
Gold Coast +1 v North Melbourne (practically predicting a tie)
GWS +16 v Geelong
Port Adelaide +11 v Richmond
Essendon +44 v Brisbane
Hawthorn v Collingwood +6
Fremantle +2 v St Kilda

1. GWS 15.7 (+1)
2. Melbourne 14.0 (+2)
3. Adelaide 13.9 (-2)
4. Port Adelaide 13.7 (+2)
5. Geelong 13.5 (-2)
6. Richmond 13.4 (-1)
7. Essendon 12.4
8. Sydney 11.8 (+1)
9. West Coast 11.6 (-1)
10. Western Bulldogs 11.1
11. St Kilda 10.4 (+1)
12. Collingwood 9.4 (-1)
13. Fremantle 9.2
14. Hawthorn 9.0 (+3)
15. Carlton 8.5
16. Gold Coast 8.3 (-2)
17. North Melbourne 8.1 (-1)
18. Brisbane 4.0

The top four is heavily up for grabs here. I think that any team in the current predicted top eight could do it.

 

[Power Raid]

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