Mega Thread COVID-19 Carlton & the AFL - NO POLITICS/NO RELIGION/NO CONSPIRACIES ETC

Remove this Banner Ad

Log in to remove this ad.

HARKER said:
The interesting number in Australia for me, is that only a few days ago we had only 1 case in a serious/critical condition.
Since then we've had 2 deaths and now have 10 in a serious/critical condition.

Yes, there's a lot more testing but why the surge in these serious conditions? How did they come about?
Did we find people in trouble through the course of testing, or are people getting sicker again?
Click to expand...

Harks you are rightly concerned about the increase in serious /critical. I would be surprised if the 2 deaths though could be related to the current outbreak as the delays between infection>symptoms>hospitalisation>critical>death is usually longer than this.

My OP was not trying to say that we dont have an outbreak on our hands- just that it will seem much worse if you just look at the case numbers on their own. When you are really ramping up your testing and doing it in a far more focused way ie contact tracing , then of course you are going to find many more cases. Case numbers on their own dont mean much. What does count and you have identified it- is how many people are getting sick from it.

I expected this outbreak as I see it as inevitable, and if I was an interstate premier I would be watching what i was saying because their time will come. You simply cannot keep a virus like this at bay- its too infectious and has become even more so with the D614G mutation. Its interesting to note that Fauci only just acknowledged this mutation in the past 24 hours- despite it being known for over a month.

We have to realize that this is a largely asymptomatic disease- so carriers can be still around us in lock down perpetuating the disease . But there is a level of innate immunity via T cells that can be triggered by low level exposure -for example within the home amongst family members.
Its quite possible that this T cell activation can provide significant resistance to C19, therefore an infected family member MAY be transferring their immunity to other family members even during lock down. It may explain why cases during lock-down fall so dramatically even though we still have the virus slowly circulating
But once lock down ends you get a rapid acceleration in mobility and unfortunately susceptible people get infected and get sick. Unless these people are identified and isolated , we are unfortunately going to see many people succumb to the virus
 
therubbernub said:
Harks you are rightly concerned about the increase in serious /critical. I would be surprised if the 2 deaths though could be related to the current outbreak as the delays between infection>symptoms>hospitalisation>critical>death is usually longer than this.

My OP was not trying to say that we dont have an outbreak on our hands- just that it will seem much worse if you just look at the case numbers on their own. When you are really ramping up your testing and doing it in a far more focused way ie contact tracing , then of course you are going to find many more cases. Case numbers on their own dont mean much. What does count and you have identified it- is how many people are getting sick from it.

I expected this outbreak as I see it as inevitable, and if I was an interstate premier I would be watching what i was saying because their time will come. You simply cannot keep a virus like this at bay- its too infectious and has become even more so with the D614G mutation. Its interesting to note that Fauci only just acknowledged this mutation in the past 24 hours- despite it being known for over a month.

We have to realize that this is a largely asymptomatic disease- so carriers can be still around us in lock down perpetuating the disease . But there is a level of innate immunity via T cells that can be triggered by low level exposure -for example within the home amongst family members.
Its quite possible that this T cell activation can provide significant resistance to C19, therefore an infected family member MAY be transferring their immunity to other family members even during lock down. It may explain why cases during lock-down fall so dramatically even though we still have the virus slowly circulating
But once lock down ends you get a rapid acceleration in mobility and unfortunately susceptible people get infected and get sick. Unless these people are identified and isolated , we are unfortunately going to see many people succumb to the virus
Click to expand...

Yes, you're right of course but if my recollection serves me well, we only had one individual listed as serious last week, so whichever way, at least one individual succumbed somewhat suddenly, at least from the point of view of time being hospitalised.

Anyway, that's neither here nor there, but the sudden jump in the serious/critical column may be.
We'll see how that looks over coming days/weeks, but my point was that there is a second wave and not only because people are being tested more rigorously.

Have been trying to get a handle on infections vs deaths and at this stage, the world graph shows that infections are rising but deaths are dropping.
There are several possible reasons for this and as much as I would have liked it to have be, for the virus to be weakening, I don't think it is.
 
gab213 said:
I still maintain that complacency amongst people once the restrictions eased is a big contributor as well. People's lack of respect for social distancing guidelines was shocking, a lot of people went straight back to doing things exactly as they had done before. People can blame themselves for us being back where we are now.
Click to expand...
It doesn't add up though.
We'd be no different from other states on that.
I reckon the security guards At quarrantine hotels have a lot to answer for and when Dan said they are still working it left me fuming.
I'd like to see those who breached protocol chucked in jail.
The meatworks..don't know what could have been done
And on evidence it doesn't seem the outdoor protest contributed much plus other states held protests too.
Now 90 cases in a muslim school??
Same area...not the kids school or teacher's fault. More outside s hool activities like Ramadan feasting or other large family gatherings or
Uber driving when infected????
It's a form of arrogance at best.

'Scuse the rant just totally pissed off today.
 
EcYLsy6X0AINk_h
 
Aphrodite said:
Just got back from Southland.

People everywhere and it took me a while to find a parking spot.
Click to expand...

From what I can gather on limited stats I seen in past few days, there is about as much cases in South-East of metro area as other cities in other states. It seems the west and north is where a few viruses have spread around.
But I assume once the postcodes that were in lockdown do not have such presence around those postcodes of police checks of people on the move, there will be more cases over this part of Melbourne. Hopefully at minor end but will be watching the stats in next couple of weeks as the logic in it seems a bit weird to me.
 
footyfan1978 said:
From what I can gather on limited stats I seen in past few days, there is about as much cases in South-East of metro area as other cities in other states. It seems the west and north is where a few viruses have spread around.
But I assume once the postcodes that were in lockdown do not have such presence around those postcodes of police checks of people on the move, there will be more cases over this part of Melbourne. Hopefully at minor end but will be watching the stars in next couple of weeks as the logic in it seems a bit weird to me.
Click to expand...


Only 2 in my municipality (Bayside).
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

So if there were 134 cases today and 191 yesterday, does this mean it isn't increasing exponentially yet?

Or is it increasing inversely exponentially?

Or was is it exponential only for that one day? Even though it wasnt really exponential...

I am so confused.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Aphrodite
  • Locked
Game Day RND 3 - 🏈 Carlton v North Game Day 🏈
27 28 29 30 31
Replies
757
Views
12K
outabounds
outabounds
Red_man2008
  • Locked
Preview Rnd 3 - Carlton v North Friday 29th March 4.20PM @ Marvel - Team Stickied
28 29 30 31 32
Replies
787
Views
34K
Aphrodite
Aphrodite
Chief
Win Prizes Carlton Tipping Comp 2024 - Join Now - 🔥 - Reply IN when you join
2
Replies
41
Views
2K
Dadda Dave
Dadda Dave
Aphrodite
News Carlton trio in line for AFLPA awards, MVP nominees
Replies
7
Views
483
FlowersByIrene
FlowersByIrene
Aphrodite
VFL Carlton Reserves in the Media (articles etc)
Replies
20
Views
1K
Chamber JJJ
C
Aphrodite
Training 2024 Training - reports, pics etc
76 77 78 79 80
Replies
2K
Views
179K
Aphrodite
Aphrodite
The Old Dark Navy's
  • Sticky
Injury Blue Healers - No Discussion Injury Thread
Replies
9
Views
3K
branedotorg
branedotorg

Remove this Banner Ad

Back
Top