All Victorian Top 8

[gocatsgo]

Who would have thought it?

Just a few years ago, we were all crying over the possibility of an interstate Grand Final, now look what's happened.

We might be looking at an All Victorian top 8. but realistically, I doubt it.

Do we all agree that only 10 teams can make it?

Brisbane has a realistic chance of making it but on today's form will struggle, next week against the Bulldogs will be the acid test.

Adelaide might be too far behind to make it now with games against Collwood (H) Geelong (A) Eagles (H) Brisbane (H) Hawthorn (A) and Port (H). They should definiately win 2, Coll'wood and Eagles, will be underdogs in 3 and should be favourite to beat Port. It would be ironic if Port knocked Adelaide out of the finals in Round 22, wouldn't the Alberton crowd love that.

If Adelaide beat Geelong at Shell Stadium, they probably will make it.

However my top 8 is

Essendon, Carlton, Geelong, Melbourne, North, Richmond, Bulldogs, Brisbane.

Hawthorn's draw is too hard for them to make it.

which means the first week is:

Essendon v Melbourne ( 13 points last time)
Carlton v Geelong (10 points last time )
North v Brisbane
Richmond v Bulldogs

Who know's Geelong and Melbourne may get a week off, but I doubt it!!!!!!

 

[servo]

Can't argue at all. Agre with all 8, Brisbane & Adelaide hinging on the Showdown in the last round.

 

[jod23]

One of the Eagles, Lions or Crows will get in Hawthorn will miss out but we'll have to wait to see whos going to represent the rest of australia.

2000 the year of the Eagle

 

[Pessimistic]

Hawks are capable of going higher. Whether they do or not is another matter. Hawthorn Adelaide and Brisbane play each other so they are all in control of their own destiny.

The support for brisbane, however is based on them having a few home games. It's certainly not on form which is the same as Hawthorn (and all teams from 3-10 for that matter)
But on Brisbane's perfomance last week, I fancy the Hawk's chances there in round 18

 

[Dave]

Pess, can Hawthorn play as well as Carlton did last week though? Give some credit to them (much as I hate to!) for Brissie's inept first half.

 

[Pessimistic]

All I'm saying is that Brisbane have nothing to commend them formwise than any of the other teams from 3-10.

Games at home could be a fallacy.

In fact, Hawthorn have one remaining 'away game' and three at MCG, two at colonial (100% so far - OK so it was freo and the woods)

We do, however have Essendon and Carlton but there is the opportunity to beat both Brisbane and Adelaide - who are one game behind at the moment.

Also don't assume that the four teams above Hwthorn are home and dry. If brisbane do get in the top eight it may be at the expense of one of these

I'm not super confident about Hawthorn's form, but it is no worse or better than any of the other 8 contenders - and we have finished strongly the past two years.

PS Hawthorn kicked a 'winning' score (18.4) when we lost to Carlton at optus in round 2. So the outlook is not that bad there either.

 

[Dave]

Pretty fair assessement Pess. If you can get over Bris/Adel You'd be a fair chance. Still all up for grabs IMO

 

[buf_boy]

i reckon brisbane will just make it, as hawthorn has a tendency to fail when it really matters most.

hope melbourne doesn't isn't at 4th spot! facing essendon first round of the finals isn't the best way for them to start their finals program (although they did get pretty close last time they played).

wouldn't it be cool though to have an all-melbourne based club grand final! who knows maybe even the storm can get up as well and they can retain their trophy. that way we are really showing everyone around australia (especially sydney-siders) who is the best state!

 

[Pessimistic]

Week 17 is now over and the 'battle for third place is hotting up ! If we assume Carlton and essendon will pass on to the prelims quite easily, then any one of the eight clubs down to Hawthorn can be their opponents !

There is still very little to commend any one of them, but Brisbane and Melbourne seem to have 'almost an unfair' run of teams they play twice. Bulldogs and Hawks seem to have fared the worst. But form bursts at sydney and St Kilda will have their opponents re-assessing if it will be quite that easy.

Hawks and Brisbane and Adelaide - Geelong seem to be the eight point games here. In fact it's a 12-pointer for the hawks as they have an identical run home to bulldogs. a win over brisbane would be something the doggies did not acheive.

A loss would put the hawks in the 'mathematical' zone as far as finals are concerned

I hope they see sense and televise this game and not be tempted to show Carlton-collingwood.

 

[jod23]

All melbourne yeah right buf boy. The storm havent a hope in hell and are you forgetting the mighty Perth Wildcats yeah baby. At least Perth got something this year

 

[i_luv_westcoast]

The Perth Thundersticks also just won the National Hockey League.

 

[dons_r_tops]

Jod23 & I_LUV_WESTCOAST, I suppose you two are gonna bring up Perth Gold making the semi finals in rubgy union next, Please.
This is a footy Board Not hockey,basketball,or Albainian Dwarf throwing board

 

[terahawk]

Go dickhead go
Geelong are a crap team and will get thrashed
come the finals.
They have had the best draw of any team in the comp,and have a very average list.
Also I`m so glad the pussy`s are broke,they will have to look in their handbags for some change,why not get rid of that shit ground petrol park.

 

[gocatsgo]

Does anyone else think that G4E may have converted to terahawk?

If that's the case, hawk's you can have it.

Considering this post was written 2 weeks ago.

By the way, Geelong might be crap, but they have more chance of making it than Hawthorn given the draw.

 

[The Dutchman!]

I for one will be very happy if Adelaide don't sneak into the 8.

Not so much scared of them as wary of what they can do.

Also, I don't think its a done deal that either Essendon or Carlton will beat Hawthorn - they are capable enough and just need to catch the top two on a bad day... (case in point last year's PF).

Dutch

PS. Just back from NYC - not much AFL coverage there my friends

 

[dons_r_tops]

Well Round 18 is over and once again we have an all Victorian Top 8, So much for not enough talent to go round and dont bring up collingwood or the saints cause the saint played in a GF 1997 and the pies are just losing for the fun of it, and cause they have had nearly 50 years to get used to it except for that once blemish in 1990

 

[Pessimistic]

I'm glad the Hawks were true to form and beat brisbane to silence people like Mike Sheehan. I fit hadn't been for some dodgy umpiring it would have been a bigger win (bias showing here)

Whether the Hawks make the finals or not it just proves how stupid it was to write anyone off with five games left to go. Form is much more important than homeground or an easy draw this time of year.

An All-victorian final 8 ? The doggies and the Tigers now look the shakiest but there are four weeks left to go.

As for Sheehan he gave the hawks very little credit despite them being (together with North and Melbourne) the form teams (other than Carlton, Essendon)

I suppose if Essndon beat Hawthorn next week he will trot out his tired old trapp again.

Anyway, the media are doing a great job of concentration on the upcoming Bombers v Blues clash. With a bit of luck the players might get sucked in which might allow the Hawks or Doggies to get under their guard.

PS Shouldn't Essendon v Hawthorn be at the MCG ? It hasn't drawn less than 50,000 for the past several years.

 

[dons_r_tops]

Pess,
Should be Great match this week
I dont think the bombers are stupid enough to think the hawks will be a pushover, but maybe the dogs could upset carlton cause they are also starting to get a wee bit cocky, (not saying the bombers arn't too) and essendon should be worried about about the blues cause they are in great form but not until after the hawks next week !

 

[Pessimistic]

Yeah, Dons are tops. I'm just anticipating what sheeds will come up with to focus on the hawks. Ken Judge used to coach us ? One of the players friends says the bombers are soft. Hawks are related to Seagulls? Scwabby used to coach the umpires ?
I'm going along with Optimism but perhaps we can only match the Bombers for 2.5 quarters maximum. I've got my excuse of a short break compared to the Bombers ready.

No please don't take this as an excuse but when the other 6 victorian teams join Essendon and Carlton in the finals, it would be a mistake to rate them in ladder order. If one side has shown outstanding form so be it but the inequalities of the draw have been pronounced this year. Bulldogs and Hawks will be 1-2 wins light of where they should be beacuse they have had Essendon, Carlton twice and Saints only once. Add that Hawks have had 5 I/S trips with no fremantle and it makes it really hard.
Lions and Dees will be 1-2 games above where they should be, Kangaroos, Geelong, Adelaide also to a lesser extent. Only Richmond break even but they may get some players back and be a greater threat than their position suggests.

Also, on a vindictive note - poor old Nigel Smart has a broken cheekbone just before the finals has he ? Is that a bit of poetic for the disgrceful thing he did to the Fish last year.

All we need is someone to clean the picket fence and all will be sweet !

 

[Dan26]

Pess,

Essendon vs Hawthorn in Round 4 drew 46,000. Last year at Waverley we drew 46,000 also.

I have worked out that our crowds at Colonial are about 6,000 less than what they would have been if they were at the MCG.

For example, last year at the MCG against Freo we drew 35,000. This year, with 5,000 more members and 17 consecutive wins to draw on, one would expect to have drawn about 40,000 to the MCG against Freo. We drew 34,567 agaisnt the Dockers at Colonial, showing that the crowd was 5-6,000 less than what it would have been atthe MCG.

This can be attributed to the lack of MCC members (who cares about that anway !) and some of the neutral "theatre-goers" who go only go to the MCG.

This weekends Bombers-Hawks match, I would expect would draw about 55-57,000 to the MCG. Taking away my estimated 6,000, and we have the "perfect" full house with all patrons who want to attend being able to do so.

I agree though, it probably should be at the MCG, but no Essendon Hawthorn H&A match has EVER drawn more tha 60,000, so I think 50,000 odd at Colonial will be nice. Are you going ?

I think as the years go by and our membership moves towards 50,000, we will play the majority of our games at the "G". It just depends how much our supporter base explodes over the next 5 years. It must be remembered that Colonial has not hosted an Essendon sellout yet (the game against Geelong was a Geelong home game), so it just goes to show that 52,000 is plenty for our "smaller" games.

Oh and by the way, Sheeds has focussed on "keeping your spot in the team" as motivation. With few injuries, this is a BIG motivating factor.

But don't forget the biggest motivating factor of all. We are now 18-0 and four wins away from creating history. Don't think the players are unaware. They are fully aware of the situation. And I don't think the Carlton match coming up will affect the team. Do you honestly think an Essndon player chasing a loose ball against the Hawks is going to say : "Gee, I think I might just ease off here and not chase the ball, becasue we've got Carlton next week. Yeah, I'll just relax and put no effort in"

We will sow you no sympathy this week, I can assure you. I honestly believe that the motivation to win every game is MORE than the motivation Hawthorn have to stay in the eight. Think about it. If Hawthorn lose, it is acceptable. But Essendon have come so far, it would be a shame to lose a match now, so close to the end. The motivation to continue to keep winning is enourmous.

 

[Pessimistic]

I am going to colonial but many many hawthorn supporters won't go there (yet)

Thats money out of essendon's pocket for every one of them.

But I suppose the other revenue streams (like selling gear at 'beyond sport') will cover that.

Perhaps the biggest factor will be the break from the last game (5 compared to 7) but to be fair it was the same for the bombers in round 4

 

[Bluey]

Re: Brisbane vs Hawthorn

From what I heard from people who were at the ground nearly all the crap umpiring decisions went Hawthorn's way. This from two seperate groups of people. Several members walked out in disgust, and a few people asked the cops in the tunnel to arrest the bald guy in white for impersonating an umpire.

 

[Pessimistic]

All the teams jumped the round 20 hurdle except Adelaide who now looks to be trailing.

Looks like a photo finish for Geelong and Melbourne for fourth and one between Hawks and Bulldogs for eigth. Brisbane have the inside rail due to some soft fixturing by the AFL. They may finish 5th or sixth but won't last long as the other finalists have mostly spanked them already. Only Mike sheehan hasn't grasped this yet.

In other words I'm saying the racr has been rigged as fourth will be only 1 1/2 wins better than ninth (Bulldogs or Hawthorn) but will have had a draw which is 2-3 games easier (Essendon, Carlton only once and St Kilda twice) This shows that the Home and away season is hopelessly compromised and to compensate there should be a final 10 system.

Both the Hawks and the Bulldogs have played Carlton, Essendon twice and St Kilda only once (no offence saints fans, someone has a bad year every year)

Yet the Hawks have beaten the Lions twice and North (3rd) Geelong (5th) and Bulldogs (6th) of the group only Melbourne and Richmond have beaten them.
In turn Bulldogs have beaten Carlton twice (2nd), North (3rd) and Geel (5th) they have been beaten by Lions (twice), Richmond and Geelong

Buyt I suppose there's only Essendon and Carlton in it so perhaps a final '2' is the other fair combination this year

 

[gocatsgo]

Good Assessment Pess.

Expect Geelong to beat the Demons this week. As Hawthorn are to Geelong, Geelong are to Melbourne (11 straight wins).

Let's all hope that the Tigers knock Sydney out of finals contention so they'll have no hope of making the 8 come round 22 against Geelong, they might try the kids like the Eagles did on the weekend.

Two more wins and we play the Bombers at the MCG in the finals and get a double chance.

Great Experience for the Kids. Look out in the future for Geelong.

 

[Pessimistic]

Yeah, Gocats.

You know how they've been saying VIC clubs can transfer their home games to Sydney, Perth and Adelaide.
Is this a way to get the I/S tems more competitive?

Anyway, I was thinking, Hawthorn could play Geelong home and away at Kardina Park next year. We love the trip down there.

Having said that, Buddha is usually out when the cats play hawthorn, and you would have won the last one had Ronnie Burns been crumbing all those dropped marks