Analysis ALTERNATE VIEW Do we really want top 4?

[HTT]

I know, I know, stupid question. Of course you want top 4. And we haven't booked September quite yet either. But if we scrape into 4th, Sydney or Port will probably finish 5th. For week 1, we'll have to travel to Adelaide to play Adelaide. I don't like our chances of winning that. Then we get a home final against most likely Sydney or Port. Port, no worries, I'd back us to win at home, but Sydney? They are arguably the best team in it and even with HGA we would be no more than 50-50 to win that imo.
You may differ, but I'm firmly of the opinion that winning a final would be a massive monkey off the back and help us enormously, and with the bye somewhat absorbing the advantage of a week off, would we rather finish 5th and play 8th (likely Essendon, WCE or WB), who've played their grand final in r23, to warm into September? Obviously, finishing 3rd and most likely facing Geelong at the G in round 1 is a different story altogether.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Dude......

 

[rfctigerarmy]

We haven't won a final in 16 years.

I'll take a Semi final at the very least, thanks.

 

[Wackelpudding]

Say we finish fourth and cop Adelaide. Not ideal but that's what happens if you finish 4, you play the best team. Not to worry though, we go over and get a free swing at 'em. Knock them over and we're in a prelim at the G. Miss and we still get a home final, win that and we're in a prelim....

Much better prospect than playing (up to) three elimination finals in a row.

 

[peterbuch74]

I have us winning every game except for the trip to Geelong and sliding into 2nd place. Then hosting either Cats/Giants at the MCG week one...

 

[tigs2010]

If we finish 5th and on the off chance we win that game, we would then play either Port or Sydney but as an away game. Much rather 4th, have a free crack at Adelaide and then play either of those sides at home.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Has mr magic hacked harrys account?

 

[Heisenberg_]

How could anybody possibly mount a case that we'd be better off playing elimination final then top 4 with a double chance because it's a tougher opposition?
We've been down to long.

 

[HTT]

How could anybody possibly mount a case that we'd be better off playing elimination final then top 4 with a double chance because it's a tougher opposition?
We've been down to long.

It's more psychological, a win in any final is better than none. I hate to be negative but if we lose two finals this year, I fear this list will never recover.

 

[Stylo]

I know, I know, stupid question. Of course you want top 4. And we haven't booked September quite yet either. But if we scrape into 4th, Sydney or Port will probably finish 5th. For week 1, we'll have to travel to Adelaide to play Adelaide. I don't like our chances of winning that. Then we get a home final against most likely Sydney or Port. Port, no worries, I'd back us to win at home, but Sydney? They are arguably the best team in it and even with HGA we would be no more than 50-50 to win that imo.
You may differ, but I'm firmly of the opinion that winning a final would be a massive monkey off the back and help us enormously, and with the bye somewhat absorbing the advantage of a week off, would we rather finish 5th and play 8th (likely Essendon, WCE or WB), who've played their grand final in r23, to warm into September? Obviously, finishing 3rd and most likely facing Geelong at the G in round 1 is a different story altogether.

I've actually been thinking similar.

Say Port finish 4th, us 5th, and Essendon 8th. Our first two finals matches would be Essendon at the G and Port at the G (assuming Adelaide beat em). Both very winnable.

However, if we finish 4th and Sydney 5th, we'd have Adelaide at AO followed by Sydney at the G (assuming they beat Essendon or whoever). Not hard to picture us going out in straight sets in that scenario, and you just know it's something Richmond would do.

 

[peterbuch74]

I've actually been thinking similar.

Say Port finish 4th, us 5th, and Essendon 8th. Our first two finals matches would be Essendon at the G and Port at the G (assuming Adelaide beat em). Both very winnable.

However, if we finish 4th and Sydney 5th, we'd have Adelaide at AO followed by Sydney at the G (assuming they beat Essendon or whoever). Not hard to picture us going out in straight sets in that scenario, and you just know it's something Richmond would do.

If Port finish 4th the Semi final would be in Adelaide again.

 

[Stylo]

If Port finish 4th the Semi final would be in Adelaide again.

True that. Still way more winnable than the Crows

 

[Wackelpudding]

If we win 4 or 5 of the remaining games, we'll finish 3rd or 4th and we should back ourselves to beat anyone. If we keep winning, we may get Geelong at the G, and I reckon we'll roll them there. (Their MCG record is terrible)

 

[Crumpet_avenger]

Is this thread a pisstake?

 

[rfctigerarmy]

If we win 4 or 5 of the remaining games, we'll finish 3rd or 4th and we should back ourselves to beat anyone. If we keep winning, we may get Geelong at the G, and I reckon we'll roll them there. (Their MCG record is terrible)

I mean, Geelong have a pretty decent record at the 'G in finals, don't they?

How does ours compare?

Seriously like.. I know this is a hypothetical thread but I like how we can all of a sudden just 'roll' teams in Adelaide or Melbourne etc.

 

[Makeshft_Mauler]

Im gathering OP is a lot more concerned with shaking off the "havent won a final"hoodoo than they are with say, winning the flag this year.

finish top 4, get the double chance, also puts a lot less stress on week one of finals when we get a free hit at whomever were up against.

 

[joelsyt]

I've actually been thinking similar.

Say Port finish 4th, us 5th, and Essendon 8th. Our first two finals matches would be Essendon at the G and Port at the G (assuming Adelaide beat em). Both very winnable.

However, if we finish 4th and Sydney 5th, we'd have Adelaide at AO followed by Sydney at the G (assuming they beat Essendon or whoever). Not hard to picture us going out in straight sets in that scenario, and you just know it's something Richmond would do.

Losing to Port Adelaide at Adelaide oval and GWS at the MCG to miss out on a chance at the top 4 this late in the season was also something Richmond would do circa 2013-2015. This year we won both. It looks like a different Richmond. At least on face value. We'll find out over the coming weeks if we've changed, I hope they're determined to get the second chance.

 

[kingy46]

The level of empty headed posts on here astounds me... ha ha
Big footy forum you are the gift that keeps giving!

 

[biaseddustyfan]

would rather potentially lose 2 in a row than get eliminated straight up again

 

[joelsyt]

would rather potentially lose 2 in a row than get eliminated straight up again

Exactly. At least with the second chance you have the opportunity to change stuff up if you don't win the first.

 

[JumperPants]

Hoping for an elimination final over a qualifying final = https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Learned_helplessness

 

[Wackelpudding]

I mean, Geelong have a pretty decent record at the 'G in finals, don't they?

How does ours compare?

Seriously like.. I know this is a hypothetical thread but I like how we can all of a sudden just 'roll' teams in Adelaide or Melbourne etc.

Prehaps a poor choice of words on my behalf, what I was trying to say is, Geelong aren't as good as their ladder position suggests (lots of close finishes), and they have lost to the Collingwood and Essendon at the G this year. They probably the most gettable of all the teams we're likely to play in the first week.

Point taken on compartive records in recent finals.

 

[thefendoff]

this is why other supporters think we are crazy

 

[Calcium Man]

Let's just win a qualifying final and not worry about it.

I get the concern though, we go out in straight sets and I reckon this group is mentally shot but better off in the top 4 and giving it our all.

 

[telsor]

I read the other day that with the pre finals bye, getting another bye in week2 of finals can actually be a bit of a disadvantage as you end up only playing 1 game in a month.