AMPOL State of Origin 2025

[Jatz]

Makes sense- have the more “impact” prop off the bench. King can do the solid first 20-25, then bring on the two impact props on Barnett/Spencer. You may go back to King you may not depending on how the game goes.

Similarly, I expect Beau Fermor to start for QLD despite being named in the bench with Nanai coming off the bench.

Barnett isn't at all an impact prop. He averages around 60 mins, King is closer to 50 mins.

King makes far more sense as the impact prop than Barnett.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

May has played all 80 minutes in 3 of his 10 games this year. He DOES average more minutes than Haas but he still gets a breather most games for about 10 minutes per match on average. It’s pretty clear they’ve got their favourites.

They have picked props in just as hod form and 3 of them have been there. Whoever they picked out of May/King is likely only there for a game or two. They have gone with the guy from the top side in form

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Barnett isn't at all an impact prop. He averages around 60 mins, King is closer to 50 mins.

King makes far more sense as the impact prop than Barnett.

Played the impact props last year in game 3 and it worked. My gut feeling is they do it again

 

[balmainforever]

Whether you like it or not team dynamic is a huge selection criteria. Put it this way do you see Corey Horsebrough doing this off the field? He’s just as unlucky on form for QLD. Why even saying in the first place joke or no joke it’s just dumb

Haas has actually played less minutes this year and not stat padded he always has a 10-15 minute rest.

They will have Barnett/Spencer off the bench, King will start and he’s a big reason the Dogs pack has been outstanding even with players missing all season.

Didn’t Corey have a problem with Ricky Stuart? It’s not like he’s a choir angel

 

[balmainforever]

May has played all 80 minutes in 3 of his 10 games this year. He DOES average more minutes than Haas but he still gets a breather most games for about 10 minutes per match on average. It’s pretty clear they’ve got their favourites.

Or perhaps it’s who they play for? I know Api isn’t getting picked anymore over Robson but who is actually in the better form? Luai was never getting picked but was an easy scapegoat. Stefano all of a sudden gets reserve spot after being unable to score a second game in SOO. His form has been average but bellyache in the camp helps him.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Didn’t Corey have a problem with Ricky Stuart? It’s not like he’s a choir angel

Year ago though and he's learnt from it, been open about how poor his actions were during that time. You wouldn't see Corey do a Twitch or something anyway.

Every year NSW have 'insert random guy' who has been robbed and everyone blows their casket. Is May fractionally unlucky maybe, is it a howler no. There's 3 prop positions taken and were certainties in Haas, Barnett and Spencer Leinu. They went King for the 4th, it's hardly some terrible call he would have been in the mix with near 10 props. I was not suprised Jacob Safiti was the front runner in a very poor Newcastle side he's been outstanding and he's been there before.

 

[PhatBoy]

Or perhaps it’s who they play for? I know Api isn’t getting picked anymore over Robson but who is actually in the better form? Luai was never getting picked but was an easy scapegoat. Stefano all of a sudden gets reserve spot after being unable to score a second game in SOO. His form has been average but bellyache in the camp helps him.

It’s a huge reason. They are all over anyone that’s fitting the narrative.

 

[Jatz]

Or perhaps it’s who they play for? I know Api isn’t getting picked anymore over Robson but who is actually in the better form? Luai was never getting picked but was an easy scapegoat. Stefano all of a sudden gets reserve spot after being unable to score a second game in SOO. His form has been average but bellyache in the camp helps him.

Not sure it's as simple as that. Jacob Saifiti was apparently getting the call up before his injury, that certainly isn't because he plays for Newcastle.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Not sure it's as simple as that. Jacob Saifiti was apparently getting the call up before his injury, that certainly isn't because he plays for Newcastle.

To be fair Jacob is having a great season, so is Daniel too. Both sort of have benefited from the other not being there

 

[phantom13]

There is always going to be some degree of selection bias when SOO is in the hands of the coaches.

May did himself no favours and if anything justified Lauries decision with his behaviour.

Childish or not, there is still alot of pride and passion about Origin. He spat in the face of the blues (or at least some will see it that way).

 

[LukeParkerno1]

There is always going to be some degree of selection bias when SOO is in the hands of the coaches.

May did himself no favours and if anything justified Lauries decision with his behaviour.

Childish or not, there is still alot of pride and passion about Origin. He spat in the face of the blues (or at least some will see it that way).

Yep with a NSW great at coach too, it's exactly the type of behavious whilst many will say 'oh he was joking'. To them in particular it was no joke and it came across as being disrespectful. He could do a lot worse than pick up the phone and own his actions, we all make mistakes footy players are hardly some Rhode Scholars are they. it was a clear error in judgement and whether they say it or not, it had ramifications

 

[PhatBoy]

Does anyone really think if a story went around about Mitchell being possibly left out, and then he joked to one of his mates about the jersey he bought him going into the rubbish that he would have it held against him?

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Does anyone really think if a story went around about Mitchell being possibly left out, and then he joked to one of his mates about the jersey he bought him going into the rubbish that he would have it held against him?

Small difference of Trell being near NSW's best Origin player in the last few years, you get away with more if you are elite you just do.

 

[Jatz]

Does anyone really think if a story went around about Mitchell being possibly left out, and then he joked to one of his mates about the jersey he bought him going into the rubbish that he would have it held against him?

Think it helps being an incumbent.

But also, for his faults, I can't really imagine him doing it either.

The May brothers are absolute halfwits, it's not surprising to have seen him do it.

 

[PhatBoy]

Small difference of Trell being near NSW's best Origin player in the last few years, you get away with more if you are elite you just do.

Seems a long bow to draw. He only played one match last year and none the year before, it was a flogging, and he was the only NSW outside back not to break 100m last year and along with Crichton the only one not to make a line break. The bloke only has to sneeze and ‘everybody gets reminded how much of a game breaker he is.’

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Seems a long bow to draw. He only played one match last year and none the year before, it was a flogging, and he was the only NSW outside back not to break 100m last year and along with Crichton the only one not to make a line break. The bloke only has to sneeze and ‘everybody gets reminded how much of a game breaker he is.’

He is that good in Origin that's why and he's always delivered for NSW when fit.

 

[PhatBoy]

Think it helps being an incumbent.

But also, for his faults, I can't really imagine him doing it either.

The May brothers are absolute halfwits, it's not surprising to have seen him do it.

Do what!!!! This is what I don’t get!!!

It’s a guy playing an x-box laughing with his mate, talking about what’s in the news about him being supposedly getting overlooked for an origin spot and making a very very small, and pretty lighthearted joke about it.

I mean it’s not bashing someone, crashing a car, racial vilification, calling someone a f**kwit on the sideline in front of the media, getting involved in a litany of other controversies etc, getting caught on camera doing coke, (and yes May himself was PROBABLY in a scenario where he did that at the roosters but wasn’t actually seen doing it) so yeah I guess it’s a bit more serious than other things that get done and overlooked. It’s way worse

 

[phantom13]

Does anyone really think if a story went around about Mitchell being possibly left out, and then he joked to one of his mates about the jersey he bought him going into the rubbish that he would have it held against him?

Trell absolutely would have it held against him, alot of what he does already is.

Hed still be picked but thats because hes incumbent and on his day the best player in the world.

May is neither of those things.

Again, no one is saying it aint biased.

 

[Jatz]

Do what!!!! This is what I don’t get!!!

It’s a guy playing an x-box laughing with his mate, talking about what’s in the news about him being supposedly getting overlooked for an origin spot and making a very very small, and pretty lighthearted joke about it.

I mean it’s not bashing someone, crashing a car, racial vilification, calling someone a f**kwit on the sideline in front of the media, getting involved in a litany of other controversies etc, getting caught on camera doing coke, (and yes May himself was PROBABLY in a scenario where he did that at the roosters but wasn’t actually seen doing it) so yeah I guess it’s a bit more serious than other things that get done and overlooked. It’s way worse

You don't think it shows immaturity? Each to their own.

I don't think that was the entire catalyst for him not getting selected, it just wouldn't have helped.

 

[nobbyiscool]

Haas was one of the first picked. Barnett was always going to be somewhere in the top 4 props.

Beyond that I didn't really have a strong opinion on who was coming off the bench, so it's super fun seeing people here and elsewhere so passionately blowing up about it. ****ing love Origin.

I was more surprised by the choice at 6... but everyone just accepted it. I know Moses has made it an really hard decision over the last 12 months, but it was a hard decision that needed to be made - refusing to make that decision and playing two 7s almost never works in Origin. Pick a 6. Pick a 7.

The fact that we had that four-time premiership halves combo available to us - while we were also picking Edwards at 1, with Luai playing all 3 games last year - and we didn't do it? It's crazy to me.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

You don't think it shows immaturity? Each to their own.

I don't think that was the entire catalyst for him not getting selected, it just wouldn't have helped.

Pretty much this, wasn't the only reason but you have to be naive to think if it's a close call it wasn't a factor. King also is someone Bellamy would know from his Melbourne days too

 

[Jatz]

I'm ok with seeing how Moses and Cleary go first.

Luai himself conceded his form hasn't been good enough.

 

[PhatBoy]

He is that good in Origin that's why and he's always delivered for NSW when fit.

I think you’re confusing what people say about him with what he’s actually done.

He has played 1 genuinely strong, stand-out origin game. Game 1, 2021. He made a couple of line breaks and scored a few tries; and even THAT game, he shelled the ball a number of times, only completed 7 tackles out of the 12 he attempted, gave away penalties, and was one of a host of players who starred - it’s fairly easy when you win 50-6.

Every other game he’s played he’s struggled - relative to the other guys in his backline - to make an impact.
James Tedesco makes 12 tackle breaks, plays the ball half a second quicker and makes an extra 130 metres on top of what Mitchell does in a close game 3 of 2021 and makes no errors (Mitchell made 3 and gave away a penalty) but no, it’s Mitchell that everyone thinks ‘is the big game player’ who you simply must have because he always plays a huge match when he wears the blue jersey

 

[PhatBoy]

Trell absolutely would have it held against him, alot of what he does already is.

Hed still be picked but thats because hes incumbent and on his day the best player in the world.

May is neither of those things.

Again, no one is saying it aint biased.

By fans, yeah. By selectors? No way.

 

[phantom13]

I'm ok with seeing how Moses and Cleary go first.

Luai himself conceded his form hasn't been good enough.

Moses is a decent ball runner too. Never a bad thing to have two kickers run the ball on fourth tackle too. You cant be sure Cleary or Moses will pass to be in the line for the 5th tackle kick.