List Mgmt. Analysing the 2018 trade period

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manpurple

Club Legend
Dec 5, 2012
1,568
1,104
AFL Club
Fremantle
I have recently decided to waste some time working out how fantastic (or otherwise) our trading has been in recent years. Hours, and one too many spreadsheet pages, later I decided that 2019 and 2018 trades are too recent to look at but trading of future picks makes them relevant. So I started at 2017 and will slowly work backwards. I am not going to post my thought on all trades at the same time as some trades can be quite complicated. So I am aiming to cover 1 or 2 per post.

My prefered methodology is rather simple. Number of games played by the incoming vs the same for the outgoing. Repeat for total Supercoach score. Finally look at average SC score per game. I would prefer the champion data number over SC or DT but as I couldn't get those I settled on SC points. Why points? It's problematic evaluating contribution per game by players, games played is one indicator and for key positions brings a measure of balance to the points system which is weighted in favour of midfielders. But there is a difference between named and warming the bench vs 99% time on ground and man of the match. Imperfect though they may be DT or SC points at least make an effort in this direction. So on to the trades.

2017 Trade 27
A rather straight forward trade to start with. Lachlan Weller demanded a trade to Gold Coast and Fremantle made the best of the situation gaining Pick 2 whilst sending Pick 41 with Wellar. GC took P41 to the draft where the vagures of the draft meant that they drafted Charlie Ballard with P42. Freo of course took Andy Brayshaw at P2

In the three seasons following neither side would be particularly unhappy with the result. Brayshaw played 56 matches over three years for a combines SC score of 4302. Resulting in an average SC score per game of 76.8, an impressive average that puts him higher than most of his peers and presenting the only 'win' that Freo had in this trade. Gold Coast's players combined over the same period to produce 104 games and a total SC score of 7188.

Given the age and performance of all three players I find it hard to see how Andy will ever catch up to the combined contributions of the other two baring injury and delisting. On the flip side Andy's performance per match is very hard to match. Last year's average of 101.3 SC points / game shows his value. Still on the raw numbers Gold Coast might have us here. It certainly wasnt the absolutly one sided deal the media portrayed it to be. And in the cold harsh light of day it has to be said Gold Coast did well out of the trade.

2017 Trade 4
But that is not the last thing to be said about trading for Brayshaw. Pick 41, started life as P40 and it belonged to the Western Bulldogs. We recieved it and Pick 82 when Hayden Crozier told us he wanted to go home to Melbourne and took our 2018 fourth round pick (Eventiually P57) with him. Thankfully this future trade is relatively easy to resolve. In 2018 we traded P34 and a P41 to recieve P30 and P57 in the 46th trade of 2018.

So what about the numbers. The Dogs did well, that future pick (2018 Pick 57) accounted for 22.6% (see followng sentences for methodology) of the value on their side of 2018 Trade 46. When combined with Crozier's numbers they gained 56 games and 3220 points at a respectable average of 57.7 SC points per game. As I said we used P40, which pushed out to P41, before we bundled it up in trade 27. But Pick 41 is only worth 412 AFL trade points vs the 2517 for P2 (16.4% of T27) making this portion of the trade worth 9 games and 706 SC points. It gets worse, we didn't even use P82, the "steak knives" in this trade, just threw it away.

No matter how you look at this, we absolutly got smashed on this trade. Andy is going to be a star for us and I am glad about that but this trade was just bad, start to finish. In an ironic twist, the steak knives sent to the dogs, which we asked to be returned as compensation when trading for P30 in 2018, turned into Lachie Schultz. A win for 2018 maybe but not helping us here.
 

Mogumber

All Australian
Nov 20, 2013
600
585
AFL Club
Fremantle
Mine is simpler

Brayshaw >>>>>>>>>> Weller & Charlie Ballard

Brayshaw is a leader, Weller is a winger
 

ignoramus

Debutant
Aug 17, 2020
128
338
AFL Club
Fremantle
Nice. I love detailed and nuanced analyses. Looking forward to reading this as it unfolds.

IMO, the Lachie Weller trade is a classic case of win-win. I fully expect Brayshaw's career to exceed Weller's by a fair margin, but I always rated Weller, and still do. Outside of the on-field performance calculus, though, Weller's value to the Suns lay in his readiness to go there.
 

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mightymouse75

Norm Smith Medallist
Apr 26, 2011
7,804
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When trading just established players you immediately wipe out the 2 to 4 years of development ..
Unless you get in a player like serong which is extremely rare these days.
 

eastfreo75

Brownlow Medallist
Feb 11, 2011
10,637
9,507
pakenham
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When trading just established players you immediately wipe out the 2 to 4 years of development ..
Unless you get in a player like serong which is extremely rare these days.
100%.

Getting a 3 -4 year player is gold. You pay massive unders and as you said you don't pay for development.

The best deals are 2-4 players who are uncontracted.

Here's a list of 2 -4 WA players uncontracted.
Starcevich
D Robertson
Rusco
Sharp
Geaves
Pickett* born and bred in WA
Jackson
Rivers
Baker* mature age
Stack

List of 2-4 WA players under one year contract
Clark
I Hill
Grainger-Brass
McDonald
 

theGav56

Brownlow Medallist
Oct 11, 2004
22,278
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Bali
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100%.

Getting a 3 -4 year player is gold. You pay massive unders and as you said you don't pay for development.

The best deals are 2-4 players who are uncontracted.

Here's a list of 2 -4 WA players uncontracted.
Starcevich
D Robertson
Rusco
Sharp
Geaves
Pickett* born and bred in WA
Jackson
Rivers
Baker* mature age
Stack

List of 2-4 WA players under one year contract
Clark
I Hill
Grainger-Brass
McDonald
DGB and McDonald would be on two year deals.
 

rgauci

Norm Smith Medallist
Jul 16, 2004
9,338
7,143
Fremantle
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It’s a terrible analysis in my opinion. The value of two players contributing to supercoach scores versus one player will always fall in the favour of two players. Two mediocre players don’t equal the value of Nat Fyfe or Lachie Neale. Though in your analysis we’d lose that trade.

There’s an opportunity cost of including two players in your best 22, it displaces two players already in your 22. Not to mention salary cap too. We cleared a lot of space losing Weller and Crozier.

This is a simple case of Brayshaw versus Weller. I think we are doing better than Ok. I think we will win this one long term. The steak knives are steak knives and don’t need to be included.
 

freodog

Club Legend
Oct 15, 2006
1,505
1,862
Perth
AFL Club
Fremantle
That’s the first time I’ve heard that. Where’s that from?
I thought they were looking at LDU or Cerra.
They were very impressed with his professionalism & character (which we have all seen) and he said wherever he goes he is would commit to so no flight risk which was a real problem for them at the time.
 

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manpurple

Club Legend
Dec 5, 2012
1,568
1,104
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In today's instalment we swing form the genuinely boring to the ridiculously convoluted.

2017 Trade 8
Like so many of our trades in 2017 this one started with someone, Harley Balic, wanting to go home. Despite cries here (I'll put my hand up) about not enough opportunity as he was obviously undiscovered gold, Melbourne in the end agreed with the powers within Freo and delisted him without adding to to his games played numbers.
An easy with for the Freo trade team you say. Well no so much. The almost useful Pick 66 we received came in by 1 position where we snapped up Tom North ... only to follow Melbourne's trend delisting him without a game played. So with a scoreless period both trade teams can bow out with the loss of only junk time picks and fringe dwellers.

2017 Trade 16
Yay finally a trade we wanted. Nathan Wilson wanted to come home and with the Dawson and Ibbotson days ending we were happy to bring in a quality defender. Nathan was nice enough to bring Pick 71 as well, making Freo fans everywhere happy with the eventual P73 recruit affectionately known here as Switta. To get this done we packaged up Pick 57 and our future 2018 round 2 selection.

So begins the shenanigans. GWS was happy to pick up Zac Langdon with P56 but decided to trade him to the toast down the road in 2020 after a moderate contribution. Much harder to sort out is that future pick. Turns out that GWS didn't really like 2018's Pick 26 and so they dealt it with Carlton's 2019 R2 (don't ask it's complicated) selection to Adelaide for pick 24 and Adelaide's round 5 pick in 2019. Why they wanted that R5 pick is beyond me, everyone knows that GWS doesn't use picks after the first round. So as predicted it exhausted without use as far as I can tell. As a side note for those paying attention Adelaide ended up dealing that Carlton pick for a bunch of stuff including Freo's 2020 round 3 pick. Thankfully I don't have to work that out here. Instead we need to look at 2018's Pick 24 which GWS used to draft Ian "Bobby" Hill (yes we all cried when we didn't get the set) who shows potential but hasn't delivered yet. If he is in the mould of his cousins his time is not yet.

All that is to say that this turned out to be convincing win for Freo's draft team. Wilson alone would have put us into positive territory but with Switta's contributions they were able to deliver 79 games over three years a SC score of 5339. Which put us very much in the right area with a 72.1 SC points per game. GWS obviously didn't get what they wanted out of Langdon and with a 42.6% contribution from 2018's Trade 45 managed to scrape together 35 games 1821 SC points at an average of 52.1 per game. To Freo go the chocolates.
 

manpurple

Club Legend
Dec 5, 2012
1,568
1,104
AFL Club
Fremantle
It’s a terrible analysis in my opinion. The value of two players contributing to supercoach scores versus one player will always fall in the favour of two players. Two mediocre players don’t equal the value of Nat Fyfe or Lachie Neale. Though in your analysis we’d lose that trade.

There’s an opportunity cost of including two players in your best 22, it displaces two players already in your 22. Not to mention salary cap too. We cleared a lot of space losing Weller and Crozier.

This is a simple case of Brayshaw versus Weller. I think we are doing better than Ok. I think we will win this one long term. The steak knives are steak knives and don’t need to be included.
Perhaps.

That is why I look at the average SC points per game played. It gives a measure of efficiency. Also Weller plays off the half back line and Brayshaw as an in and under mid. Fantasy systems always favour the raw numbers a player like Brayshaw racks up. A weakness I am aware of. Additionally, as others have stated, Weller is valued for stopping the mass exodus of quality players at GC. On balance I regard these external and unmeasureable factors to negate each other and leave my analysis where it is.
 

Tony_Clifton

Premium Platinum
Oct 25, 2002
1,502
827
Roleystone
AFL Club
Fremantle
At the time we traded out pick 41 and a known quantity in Weller for pick 2.

As this is trade analysis, I disagree with looking at the eventual players. That is for drafting analysis.

Draft Guru has some interesting figures produced from 16 years of draft history. Have a look below.

Screenshot 2021-02-15 214220.png


This trade is the very definition of a win.

It's similar to playing poker, you gotta play the long game, winning an individual hand doesn't mean you made the correct play. It's easy to learn the wrong lesson by looking at the individual result.
 
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