I think you got this wrong. Would you not have done the trade, that is said no to pick 2 for Weller and 41? None of us would, and that is because it was a great deal.No matter how you look at this, we absolutly got smashed on this trade. Andy is going to be a star for us and I am glad about that but this trade was just bad, start to finish.
There’s this word that we use in poker: “resulting.” It’s a really important word. You can think about it as creating too tight a relationship between the quality of the outcome and the quality of the decision. You can’t use outcome quality as a perfect signal of decision quality, not with a small sample size anyway. I mean, certainly, if someone has gotten in 15 car accidents in the last year, I can certainly work backward from the outcome quality to their decision quality. But one accident doesn’t tell me much.-Annie Duke