Analysis of Hawthorn & Opponent Scoring Chains

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PenAndPaperJosh

Premiership Player
Oct 17, 2011
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So due to COVID providing a lot of extra free time, over the last couple weeks I have been re-watching our games & how score chains are started both for & Against us.

Basically for all of our Scores For I have traced them back to when, where & how we have gained possession, while for Scores Against I have traced them back to when, where, & how the opposition gained possession & assigned a +1 point to the Hawks player for our scores & -1 point to the Hawks player who started the opposition score chain.

I have broken down the way of gaining possession into 7 different categories. These are explained below:

Interception/Turnover - I have judged these as when a clean possession is gathered at the start of a scoring chain from an opposition disposal (alternatively from our disposal for a turnover). I have included contested marks in this situation that are taken directly from an opponents kick.

Free kick For/Against - I have categorised these as any free kick paid for or against at the start of a scoring chain (not including tackles resulting in holding the ball as that is its own category).

Tackles For/Against - These are defined by a tackle where possession is lost due to the tackle directly. This can be through a spillage that is collected by the tackling team or a freekick paid to the tackler.

Clearance For/Against - First disposal from a scoring chain from a stoppage. In the against side of things I have noted who was on the player at the particular stoppage & rewarded them an against (-1) point. If the player that won the clearance didn't have an opponent in the immediate vicinity (5-10m area) then no player was punished the -1 point.

End to End - If a score chain is started from a kick in without the opposing team gaining possession before the team scores. (Nobody gets a -1 point here)

Crumb For/Against - When a kick from one team goes to a contest that is then crumbed by the opposing team to start a scoring chain. Crumb For is a +1 point & against is -1 point (Although similarly to the clearances if no player is near then no -1 point is awarded)

I have also logged info of where For/Against score chains are started but still compiling that so will update the thread when done & see if there are any particular patterns there.

So basically here is my list of our current players & their total score chains started for & Against. Obviously this doesn't take into account that defenders are more likely to start a scoring chain against and forward/mids would be more likely to start a scoring chain for but I was interested to see.

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Think this shows just how crucial Breust is to our team when he has the highest total of scoring chains starting from him despite missing 4 games. Also surprising that Frost is the start to 9 of our score chains for the year & Puopolo actually has a huge amount of score chains started for how many games he has played.
 

Brishawk

Brownlow Medallist
Jan 17, 2008
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31,825
Brisvegas
AFL Club
Hawthorn
So due to COVID providing a lot of extra free time, over the last couple weeks I have been re-watching our games & how score chains are started both for & Against us.

Basically for all of our Scores For I have traced them back to when, where & how we have gained possession, while for Scores Against I have traced them back to when, where, & how the opposition gained possession & assigned a +1 point to the Hawks player for our scores & -1 point to the Hawks player who started the opposition score chain.

I have broken down the way of gaining possession into 7 different categories. These are explained below:

Interception/Turnover - I have judged these as when a clean possession is gathered at the start of a scoring chain from an opposition disposal (alternatively from our disposal for a turnover). I have included contested marks in this situation that are taken directly from an opponents kick.

Free kick For/Against - I have categorised these as any free kick paid for or against at the start of a scoring chain (not including tackles resulting in holding the ball as that is its own category).

Tackles For/Against - These are defined by a tackle where possession is lost due to the tackle directly. This can be through a spillage that is collected by the tackling team or a freekick paid to the tackler.

Clearance For/Against - First disposal from a scoring chain from a stoppage. In the against side of things I have noted who was on the player at the particular stoppage & rewarded them an against (-1) point. If the player that won the clearance didn't have an opponent in the immediate vicinity (5-10m area) then no player was punished the -1 point.

End to End - If a score chain is started from a kick in without the opposing team gaining possession before the team scores. (Nobody gets a -1 point here)

Crumb For/Against - When a kick from one team goes to a contest that is then crumbed by the opposing team to start a scoring chain. Crumb For is a +1 point & against is -1 point (Although similarly to the clearances if no player is near then no -1 point is awarded)

I have also logged info of where For/Against score chains are started but still compiling that so will update the thread when done & see if there are any particular patterns there.

So basically here is my list of our current players & their total score chains started for & Against. Obviously this doesn't take into account that defenders are more likely to start a scoring chain against and forward/mids would be more likely to start a scoring chain for but I was interested to see.

View attachment 927106

Think this shows just how crucial Breust is to our team when he has the highest total of scoring chains starting from him despite missing 4 games. Also surprising that Frost is the start to 9 of our score chains for the year & Puopolo actually has a huge amount of score chains started for how many games he has played.
Would I be right in thinking your data shows that we don't score from stoppages in the middle/defence very much?
 

PenAndPaperJosh

Premiership Player
Oct 17, 2011
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Would I be right in thinking your data shows that we don't score from stoppages in the middle/defence very much?
I haven't completely compiled that data as of yet but from what I can see I don't think there was 1 from defence, I think we did have a couple from middle but predominantly they were forward stoppages that we scored from.
 

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Sirlemsip

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May 5, 2014
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The way your 'scores' are calculated is always going to favour forwards getting more '+1' and less '-1', whereas backs are going to get more '-1' and less '+1' just due to where scoring chains start and finish.

I suspect that it is useful in that sense only to compare forwards to forwards, backs to backs, etc.

Therefore i don't take much from 'Poppy +6'...
Whereas i am somewhat concerned about JOM and Titch being so negative.
 

PenAndPaperJosh

Premiership Player
Oct 17, 2011
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The way your 'scores' are calculated is always going to favour forwards getting more '+1' and less '-1', whereas backs are going to get more '-1' and less '+1' just due to where scoring chains start and finish.

I suspect that it is useful in that sense only to compare forwards to forwards, backs to backs, etc.

Therefore i don't take much from 'Poppy +6'...
Whereas i am somewhat concerned about JOM and Titch being so negative.
Yeah absolutely, its more to compare similar positions more than anything as its not very comparable to do it across different positions but also pretty interesting to see that Frost is right up there for score chains starting through him.

I'm also pretty shocked that Shiels has our lowest total with -8 as I haven't really thought of him 'costing' us too many goals/scores from his mistakes.

On Puopolo though, he is still sitting relatively high for score chains started when he has played in less than half of our games, similarly for Breust.
 

tommyk72

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Apr 10, 2007
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Great work! Good to have a hobby during lockdown!

Does this emphasize that our main weakness right now is the midfield? Mithcell, JOM, Shiels all costing many more goals. Worpel doing surprisingly well given the criticism. Has he been working on improving the effectiveness of his disposal and limiting the costs of it?

Do you have the data disagregrated by game? I'd be interested in seeing the differences in our Ws vs our Ls.
 

PenAndPaperJosh

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Oct 17, 2011
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Great work! Good to have a hobby during lockdown!

Does this emphasize that our main weakness right now is the midfield? Mithcell, JOM, Shiels all costing many more goals. Worpel doing surprisingly well given the criticism. Has he been working on improving the effectiveness of his disposal and limiting the costs of it?

Do you have the data disagregrated by game? I'd be interested in seeing the differences in our Ws vs our Ls.
Its also interesting seeing how we have setup against different teams. We seemed to like letting Carlton ahve an extra around stoppages which they did capitalise on a couple times but we also seemed to have more intercepts which may have been with an extra behind the ball.

I do have it sorted by game but currently its a bit of a mess setup wise, going to clean it up in the next couple days & then post more comprehensive details.
 

LMGjr

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Jul 25, 2020
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Out of interest where did Impy come in at 1st game back and the difference that makes to other positions (of course subjective because Breust was also back).

That chart is totally damming on the Mitchel, O'Meara, Shiels midfield combo! And it ties in with BrisHawks post in another thread about to many bananas getting sucked into the contest instead of making space for a single banana to break from the bunch.

Did the inclusions of Breust and Impy help the midfield from being pantzed, according to your chart, on the way out of our forward 50?

A 1 game differential may prove insightful to how we structure up on the way out with 2 class inclusions up forward.
 
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philohk

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Jun 18, 2008
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Great work OP. I was surprised by Frost as well, but it gels with the post* in the other tactics thread about Port scoring from constantly playing on even if it might not seem like the best option. That's what Frosty does. On the other hand, also surprised about Shiels. Would be interested in the game-by-game data to see if it was maybe one or two poor ones or a longer trend.

*Edit: credit where it's due (Dew?), post by Come back Cyril
 
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PenAndPaperJosh

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Oct 17, 2011
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Out of interest where did Impy come in at 1st game back and the difference that makes to other positions (of course subjective because Breust was also back).

That chart is totally damming on the Mitchel, O'Meara, Shiels midfield combo! And it ties in with BrisHawks post in another thread about to many bananas getting sucked into the contest instead of making space for a single banana to break from the bunch.

Did the inclusions of Breust and Impy help the midfield from being pantzed, according to your chart, on the way out of our forward 50?

A 1 game differential may prove insightful to how we structure up on the way out with 2 class inclusions up forward.
Was an interesting one last week as there were 2 scores from an opposition clearance where the player who got possession didn't have a direct opponent. Unsure whether it was designed by us or by Carlton but twice we had less numbers at the stoppage contest that lead to scores, may have been more for the game that didn't result in scores but this was 100% the only game so far this year that it has happened, so it could be a directive from our coaching staff to not crowd stoppages & trust our 3/4 guys to win it out.

Breust started 1 scoring chain in this game which was his freekick for, so don't think he himself had a big influence in that regard to starting the chains. Impey also didn't have any for this game. Not to say they weren't both involved in the scoring chains but none directly started from them other than Breust's freekick.

We did seem to have a few more intercepts compared to usual this game which again may have been from having less at the contests themselves.

Also I think tbf Mitchell & O'Meara haven't been too bad in the sense of scoring against because a few of their are from freekicks in the middle for holding/high tackles which can be 50/50. O'Meara though has definitely been more guilty of having his direct opponent start a scoring chain from a clearance.
 

PenAndPaperJosh

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Oct 17, 2011
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Great work OP. I was surprised by Frost as well, but it gels with the post* in the other tactics thread about Port scoring from contantly playing on even if it might not seem like the best option. That's what Frosty does. On the other hand, also surprised about Shiels. Would be interested in the game-by-game data to see if it was maybe one or two poor ones or a longer trend.

*Edit: credit where it's due (Dew?), post by Come back Cyril
Brisbane, Richmond, GWS, Collingwood were the games where Shiels had multiple opponent scores starting from him. Brisbane & GWS were 3 with the other's being 2. So even though he had a fair few I don't think they were necessarily him having bad games, just that in his role he may give away more frees.

I'm currently breaking them down to how each player has started scores for & against, so will be able to get a little clearer view there in regards to if they were having a bad game or some came from freekicks which can be 50/50.
 

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Guardian Hawk

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That's a lot of work so fantastic job!!

IN answer to the Shiels query that some have had - my guess is that he is most likely to be playing on (or near) the oppositions best midfielder. This player is the guy who is most likely to start scoring chains for the opposition so not all that surprising (and not necessarily indicative of Shiels doing anything wrong).

Frost has indeed been fantastic so good to see some data supporting this and also supporting his quick, rebound play on style.

Breust I'm not that surprised about. Clean crumber, good in fwd half stoppages, gets the odd free kick and is a great set shot so makes sense.

O'Meara's negative tally for me would relate to his stoppage work style. O'Meara likes to take on the tackler and use the fend off to get space for a more telling disposal. It's a high risk, high reward strategy as when he gets free he can use the ball far more positively but when the tackle sticks he is pinged for holding the ball. I imagine these frees against would comprise a portion of the scoring chains against him.

Worpel's positive tally was a pleasant surprise. Has not had much obvious score board impact (0 goals kicked IIRC) and many have highlighted that his use has not been elite yet he is still high in starting our scoring chains.
 

PenAndPaperJosh

Premiership Player
Oct 17, 2011
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That's a lot of work so fantastic job!!

IN answer to the Shiels query that some have had - my guess is that he is most likely to be playing on (or near) the oppositions best midfielder. This player is the guy who is most likely to start scoring chains for the opposition so not all that surprising (and not necessarily indicative of Shiels doing anything wrong).

Frost has indeed been fantastic so good to see some data supporting this and also supporting his quick, rebound play on style.

Breust I'm not that surprised about. Clean crumber, good in fwd half stoppages, gets the odd free kick and is a great set shot so makes sense.

O'Meara's negative tally for me would relate to his stoppage work style. O'Meara likes to take on the tackler and use the fend off to get space for a more telling disposal. It's a high risk, high reward strategy as when he gets free he can use the ball far more positively but when the tackle sticks he is pinged for holding the ball. I imagine these frees against would comprise a portion of the scoring chains against him.

Worpel's positive tally was a pleasant surprise. Has not had much obvious score board impact (0 goals kicked IIRC) and many have highlighted that his use has not been elite yet he is still high in starting our scoring chains.
Yeah there have been a few interesting bits here. I kind of wish I had a bit more info in regards to who players were playing on at each stoppage rather than just the scoring chain ones. It seemed that O'Meara & Mitchell generally went head to head with the main stoppage player on the opposition team from what I could see which was interesting. O'Meara definitely had a couple frees against for HTB.

I must admit of all the players with a lot of scoring chains against Scully was the most frustrating & I have backed him a lot this year but his seemed to be the most blatant bad decisions particularly with no composure when about to be tackled resulting in him just disposing of the ball anywhere rather than to a team mate.
 

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