and the fire danger is...

[Seeds]

Every good Australian knows what the fire danger is, the continent lives in almost perpetual 'total bans'.

Anyway, I thought the concept might be a good way to visualise the coaches that are in trouble of being fired and banned themselves. Some of the coaches below have somehow pulled themselves back from brink in the first few rounds of 2017 (a lot of coach saving games so far), but will they be able to fully resurrect their careers?

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Ross probably shouldn't be here, Freo have scored over 100 points a few times now, and they seem to be going somewhere. Lyon is also their most successful coach ever etc. However, I don't think he's completely out of the woods, if Freo bomb somehow, he's in for trouble. Low

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Hink, I think, is back from the brink (yes, I've always wanted to write that). Would have started the season at very high, but he's got the Power going alright. If they keep at it, he'll be fine, but if they start heading backward from here, we could see Hink back on the brink. Hinkley: Moderate

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No doubt Eade was close to treading water. He did have the advantage of having been handed a team that was going backwards—thus buying himself some time to get the ship back on track. Gold Coast have probably done enough for him to be safe for now, but he'll stay in the frame until they start winning most weeks. Eade: high

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It was all going so well a couple of weeks ago. Maybe I'm a bit optimistic regarding his current danger level, Richmond have rallied reasonably well so far. Can they keep it up? Well they need to, because if they don't, danger will rise fast. Hardwick: high

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Bucks is in massive trouble. He really seems to have quite the knack for buying himself another week or so. His career has basically been like death by a thousand cuts. IF he survives the next week, he'd have to consider himself pretty lucky. It's February in Buckely's eucalyptus forrest. Buckley: Code Red.

You get that fire and fired are two completely different words unrelated to each other.

 

[JackFlash]

Where is Leon Cameron? He's driving a Ferrari like a Morris Marina. He has no control over a side ( i refuse to call them a team) that has a list of individuals who are doing nothing more than showcasing their talents for prospective suitors willing to fork out big bucks and sign them to 5 year super deals or more!
GWS has the best list, but is far from the best team and it's this reason i have put a line through them for 2017.

IMO:
Hardwick is one less than a goal loss from being at the end of the year. It's finals or bust for Hardwick. Clarko?

Chris Scott is not out of the woods despite re-signing. The Cats don't need another slump.

Clarko must look elsewhere and the Giants should throw everything at him! Demons down the track?

Simon Goodwin has a lot of class at his disposal, but needs a "Bullitt" like muscle car to get him over the line... the Dees are disappointing, where is the grunt?

Lyon is saving himself, i'm not convinced he's saving Fremantle.

Hinkley is saving himself, but he may just save the Power along the way!

Eade will probably stay, who else would be mad enough to go there? Buckley, Voss, B Scott?

Bucks will stay also, the Pies are not as bad as many make out. If he gets the arse, then he should look at the Suns or North.

Brad Scott's future all depends on the second half of this season, he will need a 6-5 result in the final 11 games to keep his gig. Suns?

It will be a coaching merry go round in 2018

 

[crazywildhorse]

Where is Leon Cameron? He's driving a Ferrari like a Morris Marina. He has no control over a side ( i refuse to call them a team) that has a list of individuals who are doing nothing more than showcasing their talents for prospective suitors willing to fork out big bucks and sign them to 5 year super deals or more!
GWS has the best list, but is far from the best team and it's this reason i have put a line through them for 2017.

IMO:
Hardwick is one less than a goal loss from being at the end of the year. It's finals or bust for Hardwick. Clarko?

Chris Scott is not out of the woods despite re-signing. The Cats don't need another slump.

Clarko must look elsewhere and the Giants should throw everything at him! Demons down the track?

Simon Goodwin has a lot of class at his disposal, but needs a "Bullitt" like muscle car to get him over the line... the Dees are disappointing, where is the grunt?

Lyon is saving himself, i'm not convinced he's saving Fremantle.

Hinkley is saving himself, but he may just save the Power along the way!

Eade will probably stay, who else would be mad enough to go there? Buckley, Voss, B Scott?

Bucks will stay also, the Pies are not as bad as many make out. If he gets the arse, then he should look at the Suns or North.

Brad Scott's future all depends on the second half of this season, he will need a 6-5 result in the final 11 games to keep his gig. Suns?

It will be a coaching merry go round in 2018

I actually don't think Bucks has been that bad, hence the reason he's still hanging around. And, like Saturday, he shows a bit of coaching nous. However, it's also highly unlikely he'll get his side to win a flag, and there will come a point where the pressure from the fans and such will make his tenure impossible.

Hardwick is in a similar position, it's pretty much an issue of whether they'll honour his contract or not.

Clarkson will fall on his sword before it gets to the place of being fired.

 

[crazywildhorse]

You get that fire and fired are two completely different words unrelated to each other.

Bit can be used as such for a bit of fun

 

[Ice-Wolf]

View attachment 367895
Bucks is in massive trouble. He really seems to have quite the knack for buying himself another week or so. His career has basically been like death by a thousand cuts. IF he survives the next week, he'd have to consider himself pretty lucky. It's February in Buckely's eucalyptus forrest. Buckley: Code Red.

Bucks would only be extreme, code red is for when something is actually on fire.

 

[crazywildhorse]

Round 10 was a great round for the two most under siege coaches in the competition. Hardwick's Tigers finally won a tight one, and Buckley's side probably did the minimum against the Lions. The minimum is also what I think this has done for either coach. The danger is not going up, but it's not going down either.

Buckley really needs to have a couple more impressive wins before he gets out of the 'severe' zone. It's even possible he'll stay there until the end of the season. What is interesting to consider is what will happen if the pies bomb against Freo next week or Melbourne the week after. If they are both brave losses, I think he'll be fine till after the bye. If they get put away by 10+ goals I suspect may not survive it.



Like mentioned, Hardwick got his little break, but maybe he should thank his mate Dusty. Martin keep them in the game on Saturday. Is it possible that Martin's future is going to seal Hardwick's fate?


Finally, Rocket. The Suns were going great for a good amount of time on Saturday. Ultimately, they were not disgraced. As long as the Suns don't go regularly getting disgraced, he'll stick around this level. Having said that, it is hard to say what's going on internally at the Suns though. No one quite knows the latitude he will get based on how dysfunctional the team he inherited was.



Finally, a question. At what point do serious questions head Horse's way? He's by no means a failure as a coach, but he is coaching a team that is, on paper, premiership quality.

 

[Ron The Bear]

In terms of ladder position relative to team maturity, the big underperformers to this stage are Hawthorn, Essendon and North.

GWS, Richmond, Melbourne and the Bulldogs are ahead of the clock.

 

[vide0n]

Interesting rating on Rocket

Pretty much everyone on our board has now called time, I'd have him at severe personally. I reckon a big loss to the Eagles and it's curtains.

 

[master bate]

Buckley: Very high
Hardwick: Moderate
Rocket: Severe - the Geelong and Hawthorn wins made things look better but he's in trouble now. 3 wins from 9. Probably needs to go 5 or 6 from 13 to keep his job.

Hinkley is like the Australian bush - waiting to see the spring time conditions. Everything is fine now in winter but if somehow they fall out of the 8 by spring then he'll be in danger.

Longmire is a watch and see. Needs to do some back burning at some stage or it will get dangerous.

 

[crazywildhorse]

In terms of ladder position relative to team maturity, the big underperformers to this stage are Hawthorn, Essendon and North.

GWS, Richmond, Melbourne and the Bulldogs are ahead of the clock.

Even North? In context to the clearout they had last year, I think they've done quite well.

 

[crazywildhorse]

Interesting rating on Rocket

Pretty much everyone on our board has now called time, I'd have him at severe personally. I reckon a big loss to the Eagles and it's curtains.

For me, it is about the the establishment of off-field consistency. Whether he goes or stays has a lot to do with the internal health of the team.

 

[Ron The Bear]

Even North? In context to the clearout they had last year, I think they've done quite well.

6th-oldest team and only 13th on the ladder. A superficial analysis, but still...

 

[crazywildhorse]

6th-oldest team and only 13th on the ladder. A superficial analysis, but still...

What's an interesting question about North is, did Scott have enough runs on the board prior to the rebuild to see it through if it doesn't go according to plan.

 

[Daniltchenko You Beauty]

6th-oldest team and only 13th on the ladder. A superficial analysis, but still...

Where did you pull that number out of? 17th oldest list, 14th for games played.

https://www.bigfooty.com/news/2016/11/how-experienced-is-your-afl-club-in-2017/

 

[Ned_Flanders]

Interesting rating on Rocket

Pretty much everyone on our board has now called time, I'd have him at severe personally. I reckon a big loss to the Eagles and it's curtains.

Yep, media saying down here hes def gone - jist a question of end of season or now with a caretaker

 

[Ron The Bear]

Where did you pull that number out of? 17th oldest list, 14th for games played.

https://www.bigfooty.com/news/2016/11/how-experienced-is-your-afl-club-in-2017/

Each club's used 22 players x 10 rounds (except GC and Port). The average age for North's 220 games played is the sixth-highest.

If you said a drop-off was expected then I'd agree, the average age of the team has fallen significantly which usually goes hand-in-hand with a fall down the ladder. But 2016 was disastrous, and relative to the other clubs it's still not a young team.

 

[crazywildhorse]

Yep, media saying down here hes def gone - jist a question of end of season or now with a caretaker

I think it will be seasons end, unless they have a Melbourne 186 momment.

 

[Daniltchenko You Beauty]

Each club's used 22 players x 10 rounds (except GC and Port). The average age for North's 220 games played is the sixth-highest.

If you said a drop-off was expected then I'd agree, the average age of the team has fallen significantly which usually goes hand-in-hand with a fall down the ladder. But 2016 was disastrous, and relative to the other clubs it's still not a young team.

Some drop off was expected but we were never going to fall off a cliff and the age of our team was skewed by the age of Boomer anyway. The core of our list is still young and will be together for the next 5+ years so the age of the 22 isn't a big concern. Our list is in great shape. We don't lose many more players in the next few years, plenty of cap to spend and lots of talent coming through. We cool.

 

[crazywildhorse]

It's been a great week for our three under the pump coaches. Gold Coast got over the line against the bipolar Eagles, Richmond did enough and Collingwood were impressive against Fremantle.

It seems like Eade's Suns' performance might have been the most significant of the lot. The rumblings going on last week suggested Eade might have been in a far worse off than I'd noted in my previous rating. When a player comes out and says they want to 'do it for the coach', it's not usually a great sign. The good news for Rocket though is they did do it, and I'm sure it will be received as a welcome touch of grace. Anyway, I'm going to have a stab at what was going on last week and guess Eade was either told his contract would not be renewed, or if there wasn't immediate and significant improvement, he'd be gone. Despite the rumblings, you still wonder if it's still more in the realm of rumour than reality. Eade's SEN interview this week also didn't seem to indicate he was at the end either—but you can't really read to much into an interview with an under siege coach. Having said all that I am going to kick up Eade a level on the fire danger board, because the volume of rumours must count for something.


Onto Buckley. A solid win away is always great for a side traveling West. However, for Buckley, I think it's massive. It almost feels like he might make it to the end of 2017 now. The players do play for him, and he does have his moments of coaching genius, so now with a few good wins on the board Bucks might have a bit of room to breath again. Having said all that, the interesting news out of Collingwood this week was the internal review that will take place to determine what's best for the club moving forward. Buckley has definitely had his moments, and he's not terrible, but winning the ultimate prize really doesn't look like something Buckley is likely to deliver. It's going to be interesting to see where this goes. Because I'm starting to feel like Buckley might now see the season out, I'm going to drop him to the very high side of severe.


I don't think much happened for Hardwick this week, the Tigers went alright and still on track for that essential finals appearance. I touched on it last week, but I do wonder where Hardwick would be without Martin. Martin has been fantastic, and is playing a massive role for the Tigers at the moment. I think Martin's future will play a big role in where Hardwick will end up next year.


I'll save a closing thought for Clarkson. He runs the Hawks from top to bottom, and is very unlikely to get moved on, but Clarkson is also the type that is honest enough to stand back and say "I'm not the right man for the job". If he did, I'd be devastated, but there will unfortunately come a time. Epic first halves like the one against Port will make a man ask strange questions.

 

[beerbandit]

What is Clarksons fire-rating??

 

[BF Tiger]

Surely Kangaroo Scott needs a rating.

 

[SBYM]

Top notch thread.

 

[SherbertLemon]

OMG there's FIRE....sale

 

[Blackas87]

What is Clarksons fire-rating??

Only Collingwood fire coaches so close after winining a premiership

 

[beerbandit]

Only Collingwood fire coaches so close after winining a premiership

Hahaha.... surely taking the piss being a Melbourne supporter??? Ever heard of Norm Smith??? Comical.... although Melbourne haven't won a flag for 200 years so it doesn't matter really.