Ansett Cup - Percentage ?

ptw

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I think using percentage as "the decider" in splitting the top two teams of each group is wrong. They only play 3 games and in all different circumstances and weather (which usually even's itself out over a whole year).

I know that scoring 30 goals to 20 is the same percentage as 3 goals to 2 but if you then look at what the club needs to do in the next week it goes amiss.

Example

say Port beat Essendon 30 goals (180) to 20(120) and Geelong beat Sydney 3 (18) goals to 2 (12). Both clubs would have a percentage of 150% (Geelong may have played in a cyclone for example). The next week if Geelong again plays in the wet and wins 4 goals to 2, then Port would need to win 40 goals to 20 to match them in percentage terms (175%). If Port's game was also in the wet in the second week that would be impossible, and even if they won 4 goals to 2 (like Geelong) then their percentage would be 154% compared to Geelong's 175%.

During the full season all teams play in the wet and the dry, but in the ansett cup it is too short for the percentages to be meaningful.

I propose a system like the last world cup cricket preliminary rounds. If I remember correctly, if 2 clubs were even on points then they look at the game played between those teams, and the winner of that game goes through. It is only when this gets circular (ie 3 teams each the same points where each have beaten each other once) where it might be a problem, and in that scenario percentage could be used to split the teams.

In essence if Geelong beat Port then I think they should go through regardless of the margin as the previous games have been played in entirely different conditions. It is also difficult to justify that Geelong is not the better side than Port if they play them and win.

my two cents....

ptw
 

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WCE2000

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#2
Hilly;
i think you misunderstood the post abit.
PTW said to leave it as it is for the normal season, because it evens out over 22 rounds. I think you thought he meant change it for the Ansett Cup and Normal Season.

Anyway, i defeintaly agree with you ptw. its to short to use percantages. They should just have the winner of the match between the two teams go through. If its a draw, im sure they could figure something out.

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WCE2000

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#3
I think hilly deleted his post while i was writing my message to him, so you can ignore what i said to him.

So no, i haven't gone crazy yet.


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[This message has been edited by WCE2000 (edited 26 February 2001).]
 

Dan26

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#5
ptw,

Percentage is the best method anywhere in the world for separating teams on equal points. I do understand what you are saying, but let me explain:

You say that a score of 100 to 50 (percentage 200) is more impressive than a team winning by a score of 10 to 5 (percentage 200) in a low scoring match.

If a team wins by 10 to 5, they have still doubled the opposition score. In relative terms, it is exactly the same as winning with a score of 100 to 50.

Percentage takes into account defence and attack. So what if the scores are lower? What's that got to do with it? You've still got to beat your opponent, and your score is treated in relative terms when it comes to percenatage, so it is perfectly fair.

Just because a score is lower is irrelevant. If you double the oppositions score, you've doubled their score. If a team wins by 10 to 5, then who is to say, that they couldn't win by 100 to 50, if the match was to continue for another 10 hours?

The best way to separate teams is to go by percentage. This takes into account your for-and-against against all opposition. I hate those competitons that decide a play-off spot on head-to-head records of the two teams that are equal. I don't agree with this. If two teams are equal, I don't see what their head-to-head records against each other have to do with it. You should take into account their record against all the other opposition (i.e percentage) when separating two teams on equal points. That means the better team will get the play-off spot.
 

WCE2000

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#6
Dan:

Lets just take this for an example, similar to what ptw used:
Round 1 -
West Coast 100 d North Melbourne 50
St Kilda 40 d Collingwood 20
Round 2 -
West Coast 70 d Collingwood 50
St Kilda 70 d North Melbourne 50
Round 3-
West Coast 50 d St Kilda 50
Ladder -
West Coast 10 pts, 146%
St Kilda 10 pts, 133%

Now even though the two sides had the same percantage for each week, overall their percantages are different. This can not be fair can it.

Over the Home and Away season, it doesn't matter so much because the amount of games you play in the wet/dry evens out.

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Dan26

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#7
WCE2000,

it is perfectly fair. The percenatge takes into account ALL matches. In your example, West Coast after 2 matches were scoring 146 points for every 100 points the opposition scored. St.Kilda after 2 matches were only scoring 133 points for every 100 points their opposiiton scored. I see your point, but it is still the fairest system that can be used.

You are making one mistake. You are looking at each week's percenage. Percenatge takes your total score for the whole season all added up together.

You can't argue with mathematics.
 

Grave Danger

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#8
Yes, even when presented with mathematical proof, Dan24 spews out another lengthy tirade about how he knows best. What a goose.
 

WCE2000

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#9
Yeah, good point.
BUT, mathematics is supposed to only be used for a decent number of values have been entered. (values in this instance being the percantage). In this case there are only 3 values entered, which doesn't give proper proof.

Just say St Kilda ended up playing in the dry and St Kilda won 120 to 60 in round 1. then St Kilda's percantage would be better than West Coasts. St Kilda are equally dominant as what they were when they won 40-20, but now they're percantage becomes better than the eagles despite being equally dominant.
Over 3 matches, maths is not the best way to prove something.

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ptw

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Dan

you are right that for a single match percentage is fine 100 v 50 is just as significant as 10 v 5.

Also I would agree if you played say 20 matches...again no problem.

If you look at the ansett cup it is really on teams who win 2 games each that we will have a problem (ie if you only win 1 then you are out, if you win 3 you are in).

Now... The present syetem is fine if the conditions are consistent for a team all the way through eg you play ALL your games in the wet or ALL your games in the dry (clearly this is the case if you are playing only 1 game), or indeed where all teams play a mixture of wet and dry (the entire season).

In any case what can be more fair than having teams play each other ? If Geelong beat Port then why should Geelong not go through ? How can one possibly justify that Port are a better side ? They played and lost. End of Story.

ptw
 

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RogerC

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#13
Actually, what they should do is give the crown to all the teams that finish on top of their respective groups. And then have a different award for the finals of the Ansett Cup.

I mean look at the logic of it. There are 24 preliminary games in the Ansett cup. And then there are three finals. The preliminary games make up 89 per cent of the Ansett Cup. The teams that do best in the preliminary rounds get nothing for it. And yet IT IS 89 PER CENT OF THE ANSETT CUP! All I'm saying is that there should be more recognition for the teams that do well in the preliminary rounds. It wouldn't in any way take away from the prestige of the finals. People would still go to the finals. They still go to the FA Cup final, don't they?

Think about it. It makes perfect sense.
 

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#14
Percentage is NOT the best way of seperation.

When we go to a footy match we want to see goals scored. Percentage favours defensive teams, which is not what we want.
Scoring difference is much more positive.

An example :-
Essendon 22 wins F3000 A2000 %150
Richmond 22 wins F1800 A1199 %150.1

Richmond are minor premiers.
But surely we want to reward the team that brought most enjoyment!!! ie GOALS


Soccer changed from percentage to goal difference many years ago. It resulted in the game being more attacking, and crowds increased.

[This message has been edited by Frodo (edited 27 February 2001).]
 

gocatsgo

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#16
No, I believe it is a fair competition, even if Geelong beat Port this week by say 4 goals and miss out.

It is a competition over 3 weeks of football, and each teams has to play in the conditions they are given, unless of course you are Essendon and get to play in perfect conditions every week, but that's another story.

Even if Geelong do beat Port this week, Port have still been the best team over the 3 weeks. Last year Geelong beat Melbourne, yet Melbourne were the team to go through despite losing a game because they were the best over the 3 week period.

Now if Geelong are true to what they showed on Friday night, then they shouldn't have to worry because you saw what happened to Port after Tredrea went off, they collapsed and only won because Kelly couldn't kick straight. Realistically Geelong should win and win very easily.

And if they don win easily, then they deserve to be the side that goes through, provided Sydney and Essendon is resonably tight.
 
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