Any stock tips? - Part 1

[dmc333]

Re: Any stock tips?

I've just done some very basic research as to the opinions on this board. I looked at December 06, Jan 07, and Feb 07, and collated the 'tips' given here. The results were a little surprising.

Firstly, I disregarded any post that didn't have either a direct tip, 'worth looking at' or some other positive statement. Secondly, being lazy, I only looked at 12 month returns to today.

The results are as follows:

In a period of time where the ASX rose by 11.3%, stock picks in this period showed an overall positive return of around 70% (although after removing MPO which returned 1,700% in that time, overall return dropped to 26%)

This is a fantastic return in anyone's language, however it should be noted that around 58% of the tips given actually showed a negative return. I think (taking nothing away from the posters), that the fact that a large proportion of stocks were micro-cap mining stocks had a big influence on this result. This pathetic little survey can't be taken by itself, and I'll be looking to do another basic study with a 3yr outlook, but you can't deny the facts. Well done to the posters of that 3 month period.

Please be aware that I am actively against taking tips from a web-page, so please, n00bs, seek your own advice and as many on here say, do your own research prior to taking these tips as gospel.

It all depends how long you were actually in the stock for. If you got out with more than you put in, in a quick time, you're pretty happy.

 

[Scratcher Gillespie]

Re: Any stock tips?

It all depends how long you were actually in the stock for. If you got out with more than you put in, in a quick time, you're pretty happy.

Fair enough, the vast majority of losing stocks, however, showed a slow and steady decline from right about the time they were recommended. In any case, trading isn't for me, I prefer a buy and hold the index strategy - so you're right, it's probably not fair to compare holding a spec for a period of 12 months to market return, when in most cases the spec wouldn't be held for nearly that long.

 

[dmc333]

Re: Any stock tips?

Fair enough, the vast majority of losing stocks, however, showed a slow and steady decline from right about the time they were recommended. In any case, trading isn't for me, I prefer a buy and hold the index strategy - so you're right, it's probably not fair to compare holding a spec for a period of 12 months to market return, when in most cases the spec wouldn't be held for nearly that long.

Well I'm more of a long term person myself, not that I can talk, I think I recall I had a bit of a balls up in that time period. Luckily I pulled a couple of short term ones out to recover the loss, but if I'd held onto one of those short termers too long I would have copped a 60% retrace of the gain.

 

[Lidge]

Re: Any stock tips?

Bugger. Took a fait hit, but still have my nose in front.

And things were looking great back in May.

Now. (August 2007)

MSTR (31st May $103USD) - Now - $70.69USD
BMC (31st May $30USD) Now - $28.82USD
CRM (31st May $47.06USD) Now - $39.68USD

And a double hit with the exchange rate.

Luckily BMC weathered the storm (that's the upside of a tech stock on the S&P vs Nasdaq)

Will have to wait for the arse to fall out of the Aussie battler before cashing in my chips.

Half yearly check on these babies.

MSTR (Microstrategy) - Nasdaq

Started - $65 USD
Oct 06 - $119 USD
Aug 07 - $103 USD
Jan 08 - $76.11 USD

BMC (BMC Software) - S&P 500

Started - $14 USD
Oct 06 - $30 USD
Aug 07 - $32.80 USD
Jan 08 - $33.40 USD

CRM (Salesforce.com) - S&P 500

Started - $29 USD
Oct 06 - $41 USD
Aug 07 - $47.06 USD
Jan 08 - $55.58

 

[FrediKanoute]

Re: Any stock tips?

Merrill Lynch put a $24 valuation on Westfield this morning, currently at $18.82.

They're co-owning a big development at the World Trade Center, and have better balance sheet strength and better quality assets and better quality business models according to them.

Of course DYOR.

Westfield is one of many Blue Chip Stocks who are being dragged down by market conditions, not their individual stregnth. The All Ords has seen a mass of profit taking- not sure if its mum's and dad's deserting or whether its more of the institutions, but its fallen nearly 400-600 points (10%) in 11 days - now that is a pretty heavy fall. heavy falls have a tendency to leave good stocks undervalued. Westfield's other problem has been the sector damage done by Centro.

 

[Bombfire]

Re: Any stock tips?

Westfield is one of many Blue Chip Stocks who are being dragged down by market conditions, not their individual stregnth. The All Ords has seen a mass of profit taking- not sure if its mum's and dad's deserting or whether its more of the institutions, but its fallen nearly 400-600 points (10%) in 11 days - now that is a pretty heavy fall. heavy falls have a tendency to leave good stocks undervalued. Westfield's other problem has been the sector damage done by Centro.

I've been re-balancing my super fund and am moving funds into Babcock and Brown Infrastructure (BBI). At $1.47 it is now returning a yield of 10.2% based on 07/08 distribution of 15c, and they foreshadow a minimum increase in disrtibutions of 5% in the following years.

To cap it off, the distributions are fully tax deferred, meaning you don't return them as income in the year received, but they are deducted from the purchase price when it comes to calculating a capital gain, in the event the stock is sold.

Good trading.

 

[walshy93]

Re: Any stock tips?

EXM trading halt...about to EXPLODE. Has ground on the most historically gold rich areas on the planet.

 

[Embers]

Re: Any stock tips?

EXM trading halt...about to EXPLODE. Has ground on the most historically gold rich areas on the planet.

How much do you expect them to open at. Looks like it will be around 5c when they reopen. Might be worth a few grand. Alot of risk involved from the little ive read so far but a risk im willing to take

 

[walshy93]

Re: Any stock tips?

How much do you expect them to open at. Looks like it will be around 5c when they reopen. Might be worth a few grand. Alot of risk involved from the little ive read so far but a risk im willing to take

Yeh, results were good, a few on HotCopper.com.au were expecting more...but hey, it will climb with the results. You an investor?

 

[walshy93]

Re: Any stock tips?

Maybe around 4.5, volume may push it higher.

 

[xamol]

Re: Any stock tips?

Yeh, results were good, a few on HotCopper.com.au were expecting more...but hey, it will climb with the results. You an investor?

The general consensis on HC looked a bit disappointing. Didnt really get any uplift from the ann or from all the posts.
Opening will be interesting tomorrow, but I dont think it will take off.
Of course...DYOR

I think a good spec to have a look at in the next few weeks will be RSL.

 

[walshy93]

Re: Any stock tips?

Hmmm, with these results, it might not go off the chart but it will still hover around 5-6-7 cents.

 

[Merv]

Re: Any stock tips?

Hmmm, with these results, it might not go off the chart but it will still hover around 5-6-7 cents.

First you say it will EXPLODE, without even knowing what the announcement was.

Then you say they "Has ground on the most historically gold rich areas on the planet"

Excuse me if i don't rush out and buy 2 million shares

 

[walshy93]

Re: Any stock tips?

Im not advertising it, just what i have heard from some people. The gold claim, claim is true however.

 

[Merv]

Re: Any stock tips?

Im not advertising it, just what i have heard from some people. The gold claim, claim is true however.

Then say so, don't turn this into another Hot Copper and start ramping with unfounded crap.

They mighty have some good prospective ground, but so do many others.

 

[walshy93]

Re: Any stock tips?

I was just mentioning it, going with the thread,, named "Stock Tips!"

Sheesh!

 

[Wishinman]

Re: Any stock tips?

KAL made a nice 21% run today with some rather large trades going through. Might just be heading up with the price of gold, but the large trades seem to indicate that maybe a few people in the know are banking on it heading north.

 

[rickster]

Re: Any stock tips?

Whole lotta red ink today......

Don't panic!

 

[Merv]

Re: Any stock tips?

EXM trading halt...about to EXPLODE. Has ground on the most historically gold rich areas on the planet.

 

[walshy93]

Re: Any stock tips?

First set of many results to come. That was before i saw the announcement. It's time will come Merv...

 

[Merv]

Re: Any stock tips?

First set of many results to come. That was before i saw the announcement. It's time will come Merv...

That is my point walshy.

You said the sp would explode, without even knowing what the announcement was.

For all you know it could have been bad news.

I am not having a go at this company and maybe they will explode, but to say they will without knowing the announcement, is misleading.

That's the point i am making.

 

[walshy93]

Re: Any stock tips?

I take your point merv, but i didn't say when.

nice chatting to you

 

[Big Bad Sammus]

Re: Any stock tips?

AXM @ $1.16 is a steal...looking to make a quick few thousand dollars...GET ON EM!!!

Big announcement due in 2 weeks....Should hit $1.40+ just after the announcement.

 

[xamol]

Re: Any stock tips?

AXM @ $1.16 is a steal...looking to make a quick few thousand dollars...GET ON EM!!!

Big announcement due in 2 weeks....Should hit $1.40+ just after the announcement.

Sounds great. So why should I buy? What will the announcement say???
Is this guaranteed to go to $1.40+

 

[Big Bad Sammus]

Re: Any stock tips?

Sounds great. So why should I buy? What will the announcement say???
Is this guaranteed to go to $1.40+

Should release quarterly announcement, big find of gold & nickel in middle of WA. More news to come....

Should hit $1.40 - that's why it's a steal now at this price!